tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8156554518278588586.post3719526492683438578..comments2018-09-14T16:43:57.358-04:00Comments on Justin's WeatherTalk: Blinded By The LightJustin Berk, AMS CBMhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12617236011630970241noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8156554518278588586.post-38242790250147948322008-02-18T19:17:00.000-05:002008-02-18T19:17:00.000-05:00Cautious Optimism.I'd rather change my attitude la...Cautious Optimism.<BR/>I'd rather change my attitude late for the better than pull back...<BR/><BR/>Plan for the worst and hope for the best. The overall jet has been very active- just one taste is all we need.Justin Berk, AMS CBMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12617236011630970241noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8156554518278588586.post-28682903902981138192008-02-18T16:30:00.000-05:002008-02-18T16:30:00.000-05:00When you look at the overall pattern and HOW thing...When you look at the overall pattern and HOW things have been evolving this year ... I just CAN'T get hyped on this one. I WANT to get hyped but as you mentioned ... can't start honking yet. The 850MB on the 12Z GFS is ugly.Bill Szczytkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02368832160423498042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8156554518278588586.post-5587074188063579522008-02-18T09:26:00.000-05:002008-02-18T09:26:00.000-05:00Justin, thanks for your headline and mention of th...Justin, thanks for your headline and mention of the site. Wasn't seeking additional visibility, but that's quite all right.<BR/><BR/>I'm right with you on the dangers of jumping too soon. The driving forces behind my thinking is:<BR/><BR/>1. We've (as in many of us weather watchers) underestimated the strength and duration of cold air once it arrived in our area.<BR/><BR/>2. Given the potential size and placement of that high come Thu-Fri, I'm very concerned about the possible setup of an easterly fetch pulling moisture off an above normal Gulf stream. <BR/><BR/>3. Since the high currently projected to press in fairly strong, I'm wondering about the "squeeze out" effect (my own term) where the moisture building up in the SE has to go somewhere and can't really just head due east especially if the High extends out into the North Atlantic. That could temporarily create a mini blocking situation. Then you get overrunning by default.<BR/><BR/>Of course, as always.. a lot could change and I will make that more clear in a little revision in your honor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com