Justin's WeatherTalk

Twitter Updates

2010-10-06T08:18:00.002-04:00

Now updated on the right column --->

Fall Update

2009-09-29T06:49:00.002-04:00

I want to thank those of you who have inquired about my posts, and potential winter weather updates. As you may have noticed, I have not written much on this format in the past year as I moved my primary blogging to Examiner.com. Unfortunately ABC2 was not happy with the competition. After months of debate, I was forced to stop in May after over 4 years of blogging online. Tony Pann has taken over the post on Examiner. Click this link for his page:

This location has been up in the air (sorry for the pun), so check in at ABC2 for more until further notice.

Thanks for your support, and I promise that at some point I will be back. Don't forget all of the good times we have had here ;-)

Memorial Day tribute with Air Show Photos

2009-05-26T08:13:00.001-04:00

New Examiner Posts from Tony Pann

2009-05-22T05:45:00.001-04:00

TRACK THE FLORIDA WEATHER RADAR

Morning Stories

2009-05-08T07:36:00.004-04:00

Incredible Video Of Storm Damage As It Happened

2009-05-05T08:21:00.001-04:00

My posts are back on Examiner.com

2009-05-01T02:56:00.008-04:00

This week I made my return to writing on Examiner.com
Click below for the following links:

Examiner Home Page:
This will have the latest stories.

Great Satellite Image and local pics after Snowstorm

2009-03-05T14:21:00.001-05:00

I am sending this out to share some impressive images after this latest snowstorm. NASA's Terra Satellite shows the snow from Georgia to Maine. The slide show has zoomed in larger views along with local photographer pics of Washington DC and cherry blossom report.

http://www.examiner.com/x-1586-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner~y2009m3d5-NASA-satellite-after-snowstorm-and-Washington-DC-cherry-blossom-report

Justin Berk

Meteorologist AMS CBM

Posts on Examiner.com

Daily Posts On Examiner

2009-02-27T09:13:00.002-05:00

I shifted my daily blogs over to Examiner.com back at the end of October. Please go there for my current reports.
I am holding this page for archiving purposes.

Could February Bring The Big Storm We Have Been Waiting For?

2009-01-30T06:28:00.002-05:00

This is one of many computer models that came in overnight with a shift to a colder, coastal storm for Tuesday. This is only a 50 to 100 mile push east of the storm track, but could be enough to change the whole playing field.
Click here to see the break down of how some of the models looked yesterday. I will be posting my updates on Examiner.com. It is important to know that models do often bounce a little on a storm track days before the event. What is more important is to see if this trend holds.

Icy Morning

2009-01-28T08:19:00.003-05:00

This winter storm has done it's thing. A little less snow, but it doesn't matter since the freezing rain would have compacted it down. Ice this morning was very bad. Rain continued to fall with temperatures in the 20s. For more cameras, my morning report and snow report for Maryland, click here for Examiner.com

Check out the interactive radar on abc2news.com

Winter Storm Warnings and Wniter Weather Advisories

2009-01-27T10:30:00.004-05:00

Does it matter which one at this point? I often wonder if the public cares. "Just tell me how much", is what I hear. This map was my original forecast.
Considering the morning band of snow that moved south, heavier snow may bust that forecast around the bay. Southern Maryland and Ocean City could pick up 1-2 inches this morning alone.
The main storm will build in this afternoon and tonight. It looks colder, and that will delay the change to sleet and rain....but it will happen. That change over will occur from south to north late night and Wednesday morning.
I will update all day on Examiner.com

Freeze Warning in Florida

2009-01-22T05:26:00.002-05:00

The arctic air has made it all the way down to Florida this week (late January). This morning (Thursday Jan 22) the coldest part of this air mass was passing through. I have a friend working for the Superbowl preparation in Tampa, and their whole crew is chilly! The morning temperatures down into the 30s will threaten the citrus crop all the way down to the southern part of the state.
Freeze Warnings in dark blue
Frost Advisories in light blue

I am posting here, since my latest story on Examiner.com has generated a lot of interest. If you want to read about NASA's report on Oceans Cooling, click here. The link to the original NASA story is in that post.

Inauguration Snow Possible

2009-01-19T09:26:00.002-05:00

As I write this, snow showers have already dropped a coating on Kent Island, and the radar is covering central Maryland with snow. My morning post can be found on by clicking on Examiner.com here. I have been watching the models trending a little closer with Tuesday's coastal storm. I have little confidence in most models these days since there has been a strong bias all winter. The bias means that the trend has had these storms verify farther north and west than predicted. If that holds, then Tuesday may end up surprising a lot of people in Washington, DC.
For more on Inauguration Weather, check out my series by clicking below:
Part 1- What is Normal Weather for January Presidential Inaugurations

Part 2- Extreme Weather for Presidential Inaugurations

State Trooper Flips Over on Icy Road

2009-01-08T10:09:00.002-05:00

A quick snow shower that melted, and then refroze led to icy roads in Anne Arundel County this morning. Click here for my full story on Examiner.com
There will be snow showers today, but some accumulating snow on Saturday. I will post more on that this afternoon on Examiner.com

Winter Weather Advisory Jan 6 and 7

2009-01-06T06:31:00.003-05:00

I am still doing my main posting on Examiner.com... click here for my latest post. However, while you are here there is a lot of weather information on my main web site. Click on the TV Graphics Tab or Radars Tab above. There are also County breakdowns with local weather stations and cams.

Weekend Ski Conditions

2008-12-26T10:30:00.003-05:00

As many of you know, I have focused most of my weather post on Examiner.com.
I have also included a weekly update on local Ski conditions like posted here.
There is also a regional radar, and live slope cams. Check it out here and share your thoughts.

If the link does not work, you can always find me in the News Section on Examiner.com. Make sure your location is set for Baltimore

Winter Weather Advisory

2008-12-16T05:57:00.002-05:00

This advisory will go into effect this evening, and last through Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will continue to drop all day, and showers will linger. By late afternoon and evening, northern Baltimore and Carroll counties will be near freezing. Freezing rain and some sleet may cause icy problems for the commute home. The computer models are indicating that up to 1/4 inch of ice could fall and accumulate in these areas. While this is the advisory map from early this morning, I see parts of Howard and Harford county that could get icy as well. Depending on the progress of the cold air, there may be some freezing rain into northern parts of Baltimore City by Wednesday morning.
Stay tuned to my updates and full posts on Examiner.com Look in the News Section.

Ski Conditons This Weekend

2008-12-13T13:47:00.007-05:00

I know some of you have been visiting this page, while I have shifted my primary blogging on the Examiner.com. Thank you. I will continue to post important model updates for storms, and other special events here.
I just wanted to point out that I have made a page for Ski Conditions This Weekend on Examiner located here. Look for Winter Favorites on the right side... You will see area conditions, as well as a live slope from most local mountains. I am in the process of trying to make a formal page, so stay tuned. I am also going to make a trip to 7 Springs in western PA next week. More video to follow.
If you have any requests, questions or comments, you can always email me using the contact link on my main web site listed above.

Video Log from Snowshoe this past weekend.

2008-12-08T14:05:00.005-05:00

I have been making my primary post on Examiner.com, but here is the playlist of what I had made (so far), from my visit. I hope to add some more video later...

Snowshoe Mountain Weekend

2008-12-05T11:44:00.003-05:00

I am working the mountain and will be posting reports on Examiner.com this weekend. the conditions are awesome, and more snow is on the way. They have officially crossed the 70 inch mark for seasonal snowfall, and could hit 80 inches with the next storm- of the clipper slides farther south. If there is a snowfall forecast to update, I will do just that...

Guranteed Snow.. For Me At Least

2008-12-04T07:54:00.002-05:00

I will be in transit to Snowshoe, WV today. Time is tight, so my posts will be on Examiner.com while I am away. I will be attempting some video posts, to show the snow and conditions. I expect strong wind, blinding fog (the village is at the summit of 4848'), and some added snow. If I do see more of a shot for Maryland snow over the weekend, I will post a little more detail.

Much Colder Weekend Brings Back Hopes of Snow Showers

2008-12-03T06:48:00.004-05:00

This morning was clear and crisp, with many area thermometers dropping into the 20s. While sunshine should get us back to bear normal this afternoon, another shot of polar air is on the way.
A cold front on Thursday will be the first sign. How many times have I mentioned that the atmosphere likes to repeat itself? How many times do I repeat myself, should be a better question. I can get redundant, I know... especially in the season of snow. Here is the cold front on the NAM model for Thursday evening. The timing will be tough. Here, I've analyzed the cold front off of the coast, but the moisture lingering behind in the cold air. The initial shot of the front will may not have a lot of moisture with it. The station's Adonis model (which I posted on Examiner this morning) has the front with showers here in the morning. I looks a bit more like early afternoon. The timing will determine whether we get in that 48-50F range, or stay cooler. The back side, may allow the cold air to catch up with the showers, and mix some snow. The upper level energy lingers much farther west, but there is a chance that some get a mix tomorrow.

The weekend clipper type system looks much more impressive aloft than at the surface. Typically, if a clipper low pressure center passes to our north, we miss out. But this upper level (500mb) map for Saturday evening shows the trough in the jet stream, with the cold pocket of air swinging through. The black 'X' are the vort maxes, or strongest spins aloft, and will be overhead or south- which support showers for us. The purple line is the trough axis, which brings the final surge of cold air and energy. This will time out for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. I think a dusting to an inch in some heavy showers are possible. I will reporting from Snowshoe, WV- where just the elevation of 4848 feet will likely dump 3 to 6 inches or more. I'll have pictures to prove it, but maybe you will have some of you own as well.

Winter Begins Today. Not Much of it Around Here

2008-12-01T06:32:00.005-05:00

This afternoon will bring showers, and a surge in the winds. That is the cold air lingering behind the mountains this morning. This 'trough' will bring some showers with the wind shift this afternoon. Temperatures will drop shortly after noon as this band passes. However, this pattern does not support much of the snow to reach us. The wind direction will be more from due west as opposed to northwest. While the cold air may bring some mix or flurries on back end this evening or tomorrow morning, it should be a 'non event'.

Call this break from the cool pattern we had for the last two weeks of November. The overall pattern does not look promising for snow, but the calendar says otherwise. The famed December 5th date is Friday. That has marked the first winter storm 5 of the past 6 years, and I will have more on that later this week. For now, I just wanted to show the only glimmer of hope those of you that have emailed me waiting for something on this day. Here is the GFS showing the upper level energy because the surface features don't look impressive at all. A cold front will pass with most of the energy to our north, and swing through Thursday evening. A surge of warmer air will build in during the Thursday afternoon, so when the front arrives, it will likely bring rain showers.

On Friday, the passage of the upper level trough, does not look impressive. If anything, some flurries may linger in the morning. Considering how quiet it is on the weather maps... I will follow this all week, but don't hold your breath.

The evening got away from me

2008-11-29T19:17:00.003-05:00

Working on a Saturday night is not the norm for me. While adjusting to this schedule (for one day), I got a little behind schedule. So I made a post on Examiner.com, and will forgo my update here.
Basically I see some sleet and snow at the start, but a turn over to all rain during the morning on Sunday. It will be wet and stormy up and down I-95 for the big ride home. Still a chance of snow showers Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Sunday Storm Update

2008-11-29T13:29:00.001-05:00

I will be working Saturday evening, and will make a post on the storm then...

Sunday Storm More Likely

2008-11-28T06:35:00.003-05:00

First, give it up for Larry Cosgrove. I posted his outlook for the storm on Monday- yet it was his forecast from last weekend. The models have had a hard time picking it up until yesterday, and now as expected there is a wide range of possibilities.
So I want to wait until the morning package arrives before make my full forecast. However, here is the GFS that came on board two days ago. Here you can see the expected transition of energy to a second Low Pressure that will be the main storm up the coast. This is pretty much a given, but the position of this transition, as well as the timing and push of cold air will all play into what we see here. This classic set up also shows the face of a cold air dam. The is the white arrow I drew to highlight the cold air sliding south from High Pressure in New England. Because of all of the variables, and the first time this season for this type of storm, I really want to hold off for my call until I see more data. the resolution of the models improves dramatically when we get within 60 hours. That would make this morning's computer models that much more important for Sunday night and Monday's possibilities. So check back later for more. Right now, just plan for a mix, and likely heavy rain then ending with some snow

Fire and Rain= Mudslides. My Winter Outlook Snow Forecast

2008-11-26T07:31:00.009-05:00

Standing Wave Clouds
This is the visible satellite image from 9:30am. It shows the distinct result of cold air rolling down from the hills and mountains to our west, and drying out. the ripples are the result of the air rolling up and down over the terrain. The more 'down' the air flows, the clouds thin out and eventually fall apart. The clouds appear to look like waves or ripples in a pond. While it was clear at Baltimore's Inner Harbor, half of our sky was covered in clouds, and just 15 miles west it was overcast. As the sun warms, mixes and destabilizes the air, more clouds will develop east of this line, and appear to shift it over the city. There still may be a flurry west of the city.

The National Weather Map shows two distinct problems, while the rest of the country catches a break.
Great Lakes snow will continue, even after throwing a stray flurry nearby today.
California has taken it on the chin this month. Record heat, wild fires, and now heavy rain. The result is a formula for mudslides. The ground can not handle the rain. The steep terrain and run off will cause problems today, but improve tomorrow.
A little piece of this will move east, but our next storm does not look impressive. In fact, I am going to jump past any flurry chance today and the light showers on Friday. The back end of the holiday could get interesting. A few days ago, I mentioned Larry Cosgrove's forecast for a coastal storm early next week. The GFS model did not have it, but it is not the best long range forecaster. However, it is what most of you see in one form or another in your long range forecasts. It did catch on to it last night. Below are just a few samples of what may happen from a few different views.
The Navy NOGAPS model does have a coast storm strengthen after passing north of Maryland Monday morning. The blue line would be the snow line, and is still too far west. This represents the cold air NOT catching up with the precipitation. The storm will dump heavy snow in New England, but NOGAPS has us with Sunday night rain, ending Monday morning, with maybe a flurry Monday evening, then clearing out.

The ECMWF or European model here shows Sunday nights map. The Low in the Great Lakes will shift energy to a developing low along the 'triple point' as it occludes. That basically means the cold air cuts off the circulation and a new storm forms. This secondary storm would not take form until Monday and after it has a chance to pass us by. Again, a near miss for us...
My trusted Canadian model does not show it either... Here is that same Great Lakes Low Sunday night into Monday.
so what to do, what to do?
There has been a tendency this season for the cold air to build farther south, and the timing of this systems mid range to be off.

So far, I have not seen much support for much of anything next week. Then the dark horse gallops back into the picture... The GFS..
Here is Sunday night's transfer of energy to the developing coastal. It may be hard to see, but the GFS has it farther south and east than any other model. Here is the low east of Ocean City, with the famed 540 thickness line (snow line in white) near I-95. That is contrary to what I showed above. The cold air DOES catch up to the precipitation. That would be a change over from rain to snow- but it looks light for now. This happens because it takes the cold air all the way down to the Gulf Coast, and allows the jet stream to buckle. This gets the cold air in here, while keeping the system closer to us.
Behind it is yet another, but strong storm off the coast. This is Monday night, along a very strong conveyor belt of energy and moisture aligned with the Gulf Stream. This might be too far away, but holding on to Larry Cosgrove's notion of something impressive.
I have cut out most of the technical stuff, and just tried to show the basic idea of what many of the models are doing or not doing. There is still a small glimmer of hope for snow lovers, and enough of a chance to warrant some attention on the holiday weekend. I thought I would take a little break- even though I have to work through Saturday. So if I see anything interesting pop up, I'll post it. Otherwise, it's just a matter of watching how this might unfold. The first order would be to gauge the Friday system. While it weakens, it should set up the next round of cold air. Depending on how that air mass builds south, could determine how the rest of the dominoes fall. Stay tuned....
{More Later}

Morning High Thanks To Upper Level Low

2008-11-25T06:28:00.006-05:00

Today's temperature forecast is one of the hardest to pinpoint. We were at 45F at midnight, and remained nearly steady into the morning. The cold front moving through will allow a wind shift and new cold air mass to move in. The wind direction from the west, will modify the cold air as it rides down the mountains, so steady or falling temperatures is what I expect this afternoon.

Snow Showers:
This is all based on the upper level support. As the upper level low spins over northern Pennsylvania, it will keep the atmosphere unstable. Here is the evening map, showing all of the energy overhead. That means, even if you see some clearing this morning, the clouds will fill back in, and a few showers will develop afternoon. The best chance will be west and north of the city, and the colder air will allow for flurries to fall. Even a potent snow shower possible.

Tomorrow:
The same NAM model here with a higher resolution, shows the upper level Low drifting in Canada. The primary energy will be locked up around Lakes Erie and Ontario. I've highlighted one potential plume from Lake Erie into northern Virginia. This would happen Wednesday afternoon, and might bring the better chance of flurries for DC rather than Baltimore.

Modifying Thanksgiving and then a December 1st storm?

2008-11-24T06:49:00.006-05:00

I lost track of time this weekend, and never got around to posting Sunday. today, I'm back with a look at how this pattern will develop this week. We can't stay cold forever, and while another shot will arrive for a few days, Thanksgiving is looking better for us. The big question may be what will happen next week. More on that later... I'm working on it now....

Before that... what will happen when this front passes tomorrow morning. I see a wide range of solutions, but I have to stick with my gut. Here the NAM for Wednesday morning, shows the stacked upper level and surface Low stuck near Lake Ontario. This will open up the great lakes, and spin some energy our way for the second half of Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper level temps are cold enough, and this unstable pattern will produce afternoon snow showers. Especially Wednesday. This Low is expected to retrograde, or drift back to the west, but at this stage, I don't think anyone has a good handle on it. Either way, plan on rain overnight, but the return to colder temps tomorrow afternoon.
As of 11:30am- I see some support for a wind shift by Wednesday evening. that wind direction is the most important thing for central Maryland. The forecasted 'West' wind is a down slope and shower killer for us. Any indication of more of a north-west component, and the chance of snow showers will go way up. However, the chance if always higher in western Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore Counties. One thing I have noticed lately, is that Harford and Cecil Counties in northeastern MD get ignored. That north west wind flow has a tendency to carry some showers your way, and sometimes bypass Baltimore. So- you will be in my thoughts as well....
So far, depending on how this thing behaves, we have a chance to clear out and warm up with a dry westerly wind for Thanksgiving. If the upper level low hangs closer, then all bets may be off.

Larry Cosgrove already did work in his last newsletter. He sees big potential for a big storm for us.
Rather than go into all of his details... I just wanted to show some support with a few models already:

The Japanese Meteorological Agency shows a coastal storm passing into Long Island, NY on Monday morning. This would linger some wrap around snow showers in Maryland. This is a 192 hour forecast, and the JMA does like to develop these coastal storms way out for us....

Nov 21st Snow in Southern PA

2008-11-22T09:07:00.004-05:00

Did you get any? Just wanted to share some scenes around the north side with 1 inch of new fluff. So if you did not get any at your place, it sill snowed. I was expecting a little more widespread coating. More may be on the way next week with a cold, staled upper low. More on that tomorrow.

Afternoon Update 2pm: MESO LOW means more snow

2008-11-21T11:58:00.002-05:00

I was on the road and unable to make a full model post. This was the image from 11:30am- now fixed.
This is a strong fort max that looks like a mesoscale Low Pressure. One band in central PA and the tail back through PIT and OH. This spin should ride the upper level flow and pass south mid afternoon and may provide that burst of snow that could drop some accumulation. Timing this is between 3pm and 6pm.

This image from 1:50pm shows it dropping south and east... but not as fast as I thought. However, the spin is pretty evident on and radar loop. Check it out in my TV Graphics tab above- and click on Radars and Stuff...
If this holds up and arrives a little later.. then it could be an evening event. Since any snow falling near or after dark will stick, we could get the maximum punch out of this. It is hard to say how much, since the models are not tracking this well...so I will stick with my initial 1-2 inches from TV this morning. But heck, you could get more if it plays out right.

This was what I was greeted to when I got home... a fresh cover of snow (yes I live a bit north of Baltimore partly for this reason). I wasn't going to show my whole place for 'security' reasons, but it was pretty. That little snowman is our 18" measuring post... and we just put it out. Last year, we got snow within 2 days of putting him out as well... How about that.
I hope you all get the some later on.

Winter Outlook Part 3: Larry Cosgrove

2008-11-19T10:19:00.017-05:00

I have a great deal of respect for Larry Cosgrove of Weather America. While we never met in person, we shared a weather center in Philadelphia. I worked at WPHL on a freelance basis in 2001, and again in 2003. Larry was there much longer, before he moved up to New England. Tony Pann and I had him on our radio show Weather Talk as a frequent guest, and I enjoy his in depth analysis of the atmosphere. Below is his disection of the winter of 2008-2009. It is long, but worth the read:
2008 - 2009 WINTER SEASON FORECAST

Transient +PNA and -AO with recurrent NAO make for a very wintry Midwest and Eastern Seaboard!

Overview

Using persistence, climatology, and comparisons with analogue years that showed certain similarities to trends seen in weather so far in 2008, a forecast for the upcoming winter season was compiled showing expectations for temperature and precipitation in North America, the European Union, and Asia. Special emphasis was placed on potential for extreme conditions (cold vs. warmth, heavy snow or ice risk, and excessive against minimal precipitation accumulation).

October Synoptic Pattern

There have been prevailing patterns around North America which, through persistence, may offer clues to the trends of synoptic systems that will occur during the winter months. If we count the two tropical storms (Hanna and Kyle), there have been no less than six storms paralleling the Atlantic coastline since early September. Deep tropical moisture connections are evident in all cases, so if such disturbances were to occur in winter, the prospects for snow and/or ice along the Eastern Seaboard will be higher than usual.

It should also be pointed out that, despite the variability of cold to warm conditions over the West, strong ridging routinely occurred at higher latitudes over the previous six weeks. You can see this signature in the 500MB longwave pattern graphic further down the page. Any ongoing tendency of high latitude ridging over the Northwest territories and Nunavut AR must be treated as a feature favoring drainage of Arctic air into the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. during the low sun period.

Possible Influence Of ENSO And PDO

For much of the summer and fall of 2008, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation signature has been in the neutral categories, between a warm (+ENSO or El Nino) episode and a cold (-ENSO or La Nina) phase. Most forecasts maintain this neutral position through the upcoming winter (although the most recent CFS outlook suggests a return to a weak La Nina), which seems a viable idea as most important changes in oceanic temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Basin will occur between spring and autumn. ONI measures are at zero, which, in the lack of any other forcing variable, should imply that simple climatology would have an edge in the seasonal forecast. One x-factor: we have seen two strong Kelvin waves progress out of the equatorial Indian Ocean since mid-September. These impulses could very well warm the neutral character of the waters between the Philippines and Hawaii, creating a window for a neutral/positive or even weak El Nino episode at some point late in the winter.

One possible factor in play for this winter is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), based on the measure of SSTs in the Gulf of Alaska. If waters are colder than normal, a moderating or zonal influence is sometimes evident over North America. Should sea temperatures warm to above normal below the farthest north state, correlations exist that favor -EPO or +PNA ridge formation (often a warm condition in the western states versus colder air to the right of the Rocky Mountains. While a -PDO value has been in place for much of the past year, there has been some rightward flex from much warmer seas to the west and south, clearly evident on the October 20 chart. It should also be said that there are cases (such as January 1961) where a repeated negative height anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska was simultaneous with extreme cold and snow over the eastern half of the U.S. For this reason, I feel that the modifying influence of this signature may be muted during the coming months.

MJO And Kelvin Wave Signatures

Any discussion of possible contribution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to winter weather over North America must be tempered by these facts: one, that the processes of the MJO and its effects are still not well understood (teleconnections). Secondly, that forecasts for the various phases of the oscillation are still quite poor. Thirdly, any estimation as to the position and strength of the MJO is virtually impossible beyond the traditional 15 day period.

There have been two major Kelvin wave ejections from the area between Sri Lanka and Sumatra since September 1. Both of these impulses seemed to have the effect of amplifying the polar westerlies upon emergence into the equatorial Pacific Ocean (a case that was seen many times during the previous winter). keep in mind that after passage of these waves, waters tend to warm. This is an argument against the formation of a La Nina signature (while supporting continued neutral character of the western and central ENSO sectors). On the idea that we may speculate on the same or slightly increased activity with the MJO over the December - March period, at least six large winter storms and cPk/cA advection events may occur.

Analogue Years

There are three criteria used here for a comparison to apparent weather during the upcoming winter. One is the ONI signature for autumn, which characterizes the ENSO configuration immediately precedent to the winter season. Next is similarity in synoptic pattern, a way of how weather during 2008 looks went placed against previous years. Lastly, similarity in tropical season: how did incidence of warm-core cyclogenesis rank against previous years?

This fall has seen an almost purely neutral ENSO, with ONI measure of zero and an increasingly homogenous look to all sectors of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Previous autumns with this reading are 1960, 1966, 1980, and 2001. So the winters of 1960-61, 1966-67, 1980-81, and 2001-02 are added to the analogue list. An additional year, 1973 is also added as its Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) values closely follow those seen in the past few months; therefore the 1973-74 low sun period is considered for this study.

The spring and fall of 2008 bore uncanny parallels to that of 1993: multiple cases of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Corn Belt with heat and drought an issue for much of the Eastern Seaboard. With this reflection in mind, the 1993-1994 DJFM period is included.

Possible comparisons exist with years where tropical cyclone output was more or less equal (+/- 1) between the Atlantic Basin and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, where the number of storms exceeded seasonal climatology. This caveat is significant, because there is an indication of a higher rate of interaction between the tropics and higher latitudes. Therefore, the winter seasons of 1954-55, 1959-60, 1961-62, 1988-89 and 2002-03 were added to the analogue group.

Character Of The Stratosphere, 250MB Jet Stream, And 500MB Features

In recent years, efforts to forecast stratospheric temperature have been made as an aid to surface weather forecasting. Typically, a warmer 30MB reading will correspond to colder surface values which, in cases where advection mechanisms are present, will impact lower latitudes about a week to two weeks after the foundation of the high-level ridge complex. The strongest intrusions of cold air come when the stratosphere warms suddenly above a vast ice and snow field. This was the case last year, when the mean positive thermal anomaly formed in February and was accompanied by near-record cold in some parts of the Great Lakes region.

Forecasting the development of these warm pools in the highest elevations of the atmosphere is still not easily accomplished, so the use of past-year analogues may not be helpful here. The presence and size of the polar cold core, however, might be a parameter worth watching, as the warmer alignment of temperatures will rotate below this feature. If so, this could mean an extensive period of cold across much of the U.S. in December, when the warmer banding over northern Asia works eastward. Suggested reading for this phenomenon include The Stratospheric Sudden Warming Website and Monitoring of the Stratospheric Circulation.

There are two important synoptic features seen in late September and October which stand out in relation to the coming winter. One is the character of the jet stream, which has been split over and about North America. The semizonal velocity maximum at 250MB has remained over the western and central Pacific Ocean, while the resumption of unified flow aloft tends to occur just to the right of the Grand Banks. If the upper level wind fields were to be strong and un-amplified across the northern U.S., then at least the start of the December through March time frame would be mild and dry. But the broken appearance of the wind fields, and the recurrence of above normal 500MB heights in Arctic Canada (-AO) would seem to suggest that potential for cyclogenesis and cold air advection is fairly high in areas east of the Continental Divide. Add to this what appears in analogue years as a high rate of occurrence for a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and transient examples of a +PNA flow configuration, and chances for advection of cold air into lower latitudes seem to be higher than average.

Temperature Forecast

Note that snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere has been increasing, approaching the seasonal normal for late October. Extensive snow fields are important for generation of cold temperatures, and with acreage of snow and ice over the northern portions of the continent now filling in (especially into QB, Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories), a case can be made that building of high pressure into the U.S. and southern Canada will be accompanied by meaningful displays of cAk (coldest Arctic) air masses.

On the whole, I expect colder temperatures to dominate much of the lower 48 states. Core negative anomalies will be over the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley, as well as central Canada. A tendency for Alberta Clipper type storms and flexed +PNA signatures will probably allow for cA intrusions to reach into the Mid-South and Eastern Seaboard. Occasional digging of shortwaves into Colorado (precedent to Colorado/Trinidad storm development) may allow for a secondary region of colder values in the Salt Lake Valley and central Front Range.

The tendency for ridge formation over the Pacific Northwest and Continental Divide may allow for relatively mild conditions in much of the Intermountain Region and the High Plains. It should be noted that if the -PDO environment strengthens, then this area of warmth would be compressed or perhaps eliminated. The tendency for ridging to develop in the Southeast, as noted in many of the analogue years for the period after January 15, favors the highest temperature profiles from the Gulf Coast into Florida and Georgia.

Month - To - Month Breakdown
Here is the forecast for the upcoming winter temperature trend, month by month. Notice that January is, by area and temperature deviation, the coldest month (while December chill impacts the Eastern Seaboard). A key issue with winters with a -PDO (coldness of Gulf of Alaska waters) is a recurrent ridge over the Southeast. I believe that as spring approaches, a tight gradient may emerge from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic states. Think of the transition as a battleground between the entrenched colder regime associated with the transient +PNA and -AO related ridging , in concurrence with -NAO aligned blocking near Baffin Island or Greenland. This boundary could be a conduit for storms, with late-season snow and ice events across the Great lakes and Northeast. Colorado cyclones which undercut transient +PNA ridging may stimulate colder temperatures in parts of the Intermountain Region through the winter, while the unstable positive height anomalies over the Pacific Northwest keep mPk frontal structures off of the Gulf of Alaska from making frequent passages.

DECEMBER

Repeated cold intrusions from the Upper Midwest into the Eastern Seaboard. Generally warmer across the Intermountain Region and Great Plains, with area from Utah and Colorado into Missouri and Arkansas a buffer zone between returning warmth along the western Gulf Coast and a mild regime parallel and west of the Continental Divide. Some potential for occasional occurrence of colder values in the heartland of the U.S. due to Colorado/Trinidad "A" storms with increasing snow. Greatest threat for major winter storm will be over the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor.

JANUARY

Widespread cold except for the West Coast and the Southeast. Active storm track from western Gulf of Mexico up along the Atlantic shoreline will create ice and snow hazards over the eastern third of the U.S. Lake effect snows may be crippling in Cleveland OH and Buffalo NY metro areas, with occasional issues from snowfall in Chicago IL, Indianapolis IN, Cincinnati OH and Pittsburgh PA. Ice storm risk may be higher through the interior of Dixie and along the Eastern Seaboard.

FEBRUARY

While cold strengthens its grip over much of Canada and the Midwest, I suspect that ridging will be an increased presence over the Southeast (see the analogue mean 500MB composite anomaly above for insight into this possibility). Very active procession of both Alberta Clippers and Colorado/Trinidad "A" cyclones along gradient between FL-GA positive height anomaly and cAk intrusions that will reach as far south as Texas and Appalachia (some spillover into the Northeast as well).

MARCH

Very similar to February scenario except that flat subtropical high may make inroads into the entirety of the Deep South (creating some warmth from Texas into the Carolinas). Extended winter for the Midwest as a whole; some risk present for late season surprise ice or snow event in the Northeast with a cold air damming scenario (i.e. backdoor cold front and overrunning).

Storm Track Scenarios

The tendency for storms over the western Atlantic Ocean and adjacent coastline stands out as we head into the colder months. Since stronger features tend to regress and deepen during winter, the lows which have formed near or east of Bermuda may instead pass closer to the Eastern Seaboard. Likewise, some potential exists for Piedmont cyclones, originating in the Deep South and passing west of the Interstate 95 corridor. The most likely options for track scenarios are for Colorado/Trinidad "A" cyclones and Hatteras (Nor'easter) Lows, as examples of these systems have already occurred, and will be favored to develop again under a transient +/- PNA configuration. Alberta Clippers may take shape in middle and late winter, precedent to cAk intrusions; Piedmont storms and Galveston Bay Spin-Up cyclones are also a strong possibility, with ridging over the Sargasso Sea setting up against digging energy from the High Plains.
Precipitation, Ice, And Snowfall
A very clear pattern emerges with the averaging the 11 seasons used as analogues: the best risk of precipitation is over the Pacific Northwest and the Old South. If the overall synoptic pattern verifies, the presence of high moisture advection against incoming shallow cold air sends all kinds of alarm bells out for the possibility of major ice storm formation around Appalachia and the Piedmont (including the markets of Birmingham AL; Atlanta GA; Charlotte NC; Raleigh NC; and Richmond VA).

Rather than attempt a calculation of total snowfall or probability of snow for the season, I felt that the best option was to match the possible synoptic signature against the mean temperature pattern set for the analogue years. This comparison could help to determine possible situations for snow vs. ice/mix vs. rain, envisioning the storm track types mentioned above. The way to read the map is fairly simple: the dark blue would be the farthest south demarcation of where snow is likely to occur; the electric blue where accumulations of snowfall are possible. Snow events that could cause moderate impacts on travel and utilities are marked in light blue, whereas disruptive or heavy snow threats are most probable in the gray zone. Where marked white are locations where memorable snowstorms could occur. The Black Hills vicinity are almost always hit by blizzards or mammoth snows in late winter and spring. But the area from WV and VA into SE ON represents a synoptic system in the heart of winter; I feel that middle Appalachia and the lower Great Lakes will be the area to watch this winter for a critical snowmaking cyclone, with lake-related additions after passage.

One point which should be made: the area seeing the best overall potential for precipitation has been affected by long term drought, with a lack of consistent water accumulation during the past two years. There should be ample potential to erode the water deficit during the upcoming winter.

Summary

Confidence in this forecast is about average. Complications which could deter verification are stratospheric temperature anomalies (somewhat cooler over North America this fall when compared to last autumn); the possible effects of a -PDO measure; the repeated presence of mid-latitude cyclones across much of the western Atlantic Ocean (which, if these storms do not retrogress as expected, would lead to a colder score across the eastern third of the nation. And the evolution of the ENSO signature across the Pacific Basin, which as of this writing was solidly neutral.

In general, placement of polar and Arctic regimes will be somewhat further south and east than last year. The average of analogue years strongly supports development of a subtropical high near the southeastern U.S. during February and March, which could begin to offset cold advection and lead to much-above-normal average temperatures in about the state of Florida.

A strong case is made for abundant precipitation, much of it frozen, over the Old South, Appalachia, the Great Lakes and the Eastern Seaboard. Ice storms may prove to be an ongoing hazard in the Piedmont and lower Appalachian Mountains. Overall threats for major snow events are higher, with chief risk for a critically high snow and wind situation over the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley.

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Thursday, October 30, 2008 at 4:20 P.M. CT

Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2008 by Larry Cosgrove

Winter Comes Early..Winter Outlook Later Today

2008-11-19T06:32:00.004-05:00

I just posted a condensed version on Examiner.com. Since it is a long article, it will take some time to get all of the images loaded on Blogger. Please check back later.
In the meantime, I have also posted a recap of the recent snow along with Chesapeake Bay Effect and 21 inch snow pictures from Snowshoe, WV on abc2news.com

If you missed the snow last evening, we could still get more

2008-11-18T07:36:00.003-05:00

OK, not real snow, but snow showers. This morning I was a little disappointed that the ground was not white, but I only expected a coating to 1/2 inch. While there was some north and west, it did melt as soon as it stopped. So the lack of precipitation overnight was my bad- otherwise, we are still on target.
At 6:30 am, I noticed the flare up of snow just south of Richmond, VA. That is the vort max I was showing yesterday. This is a sign of the energy shift and new development off of the coast. Not the caliber I had hinted at last night- at least not now. But it will generate strong wind this afternoon, and the chance of more flurries or snow showers.
The image below will update every 10-15 minutes, so you can follow the developing snow. You can also see it on my TV Graphics Tab above.

Snow on Schedule.. Afternoon Update

2008-11-17T17:01:00.006-05:00

I just made a brief update on Examiner.com with the 4pm observation. The only thing I wanted to add here was the 18Z (mid afternoon) NAM model update.
I think this is looking a lot like the December 5th event last year. The track, the timing, the strength, and the models not fully seeing it. There is a Winter Storm Warning in the pink on this map... for the mountains of western MD into West Virginia. The forecast is for 6-12 inches of snow. That is giving the terrain credit for uplift, but the track of this low with the strong upper level support trying to catch it may enhance it east of the mountains...at least as it reaches the coast.

This 500mb (upper level map), shows the vorticity or 'spin' near Indianapolis. I've highlighted that with a white X.
That is still west of the mountains, and just behind the surface low. A smaller piece in the southern Delmarva can be seen in yellow. That will be responsible for our overnight showers, but this shows that there is more to come our way by daybreak.

Jumping ahead to Tuesday afternoon at 3pm, that vort max is now stronger (orange), while rounding the base of the trough in North Carolina. If anything, this might be a little too far south, but the trough axis and support linger into southern MD. This increase in vertical velocity or rising air is a sign of strength. The outlook did have low pressure developing rapidly off of the coast, but I think if might be a little sooner and closer. That will lick our winds up to 30-40mph from the north in the afternoon, and bring the question of how long the snow will last. This may not be a clean solid band of precipitation, but any showers may be able to drop some surprising accumulation. Again, at this point, I don't see an exact repeat of the Dec. 5th, 2007 event when we had almost 5 inches of snow in Baltimore, but some places getting an inch or two looks possible now.

First Flakes=Stickage

2008-11-17T06:08:00.005-05:00

Watch the snow here. This image will update every 15 minutes- but you may need to reload the page.I coined the phrase stickage many years ago. I think it's self explanatory, but I will elaborate below. You may have had a snow shower Sunday afternoon at your place, but all of us get a shot later today through tomorrow. I have a sense of pride, since I first called this last week, and now everyone else is hopping on board. No, this will not be a major event, but an early arrival of winter is exciting. I have learned a long time ago not to blow anything out of proportion, since it will get exaggerated on TV. That being said, our first snow is on the way.
Here is the overnight NAM model for this afternoon with a cold front type passage of an upper level trough. I've highlighted this with the purple hashed line, and the snow turn over in white. While the surface temperatures will likely make it into the 40s, it will fall, and drop to near or below freezing tonight. But it's the cloud level temps that will determine when the flakes fall. Plan for showers this afternoon that will start as rain, and then turn over. Once it gets dark, and the colder air spills in, light snow becomes more widespread.

Tuesday morning's 500mb map, shows the vort max (red X) in the prime spot to our south. This will maximize the potential, and may enhance what I am already seeing. The light snow will be around early, and linger with flurries or snow showers into the afternoon. This may turn out to be something explosive off of the coast. I have seen this a few times in the past month... and is exactly what happened with that October snowstorm just before Halloween. The atmosphere tends to hold memory, and repeat itself, so hold on it could be more that even what I am saying.

I am waiting for the morning computer models to see how this might evolve, but here is the expected precipitation with a range of .01 to .05" inches. That is enough to drop a half an inch or more in the colder spots. While I am focusing on the grassy areas, some roads will get covered overnight as the cold air spills in. Stay tuned, and enjoy!

There has also been some buzz about a large coastal storm for next Sunday and Monday. The latest GFS has this a little farther west or inland-which would be more rain for us. It's still far out, and we have to see how this cold air establishes itself over the next few days. I'll watch this each day to see how each run treats it, but can't take it seriously until Wednesday or Thursday.

Tornado Watch Until 7pm

2008-11-15T13:53:00.004-05:00

While the chance of a tornado is slim, the winds will exceed 50mph in many spots as the cold front passes through. This is all about the energy in the atmosphere as we have a dramatic transition of air masses. Look at the 1pm temperatures here. Baltimore 73F, while Detroit is 37F. Talk about role reversal.
Follow the warnings, radar, and lightning tracker on my Storm Page. I will have more on Examiner.com tomorrow. Snow is on the way!

The Skinny on the Rain and Snow This Weekend

2008-11-14T14:34:00.005-05:00

We've already seen nearly an inch or rain (or more in some spots). The HPC rainfall update now has an additional 1-2 inches from central Maryland to the coast. This is along the lines of what I mentioned earlier this week.
The heavy rain will be here in two more parts:
Tonight through Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon: A cold front with the chance of a thunderstorm mixed in.

Then the cold air spills in in a few waves Sunday through Tuesday. Each will have a piece of energy, short wave (or vort max), that should carry snow showers over the mountains and through central Maryland.

It has been a long day, so I am just going to post some charts below to make my case. I am using the NAM model showing the 500mb vortivity (spin), and thickness between 1000mb and 500mb. The '540' line usually represents where the snow or freezing line would set up.
Basically, I'd be surprised it we don't get snow here by Monday or Tuesday. Sunday morning, and afternoon each have a shot. The last image is Monday Evening. This one looks like a clipper type system. A bit more widespread, and the cold air will already be established. This has the best chance to coat the ground or more in the northern/western burbs... Stay tuned.

The Developing Storm and Chance of Snow

2008-11-13T07:47:00.008-05:00

As I mentioned on Examiner.com this morning, the models and my resulting forecast changed a bit after the morning package came in yesterday. On that note, I am going to wait until I get the new data to make my post here today. Please check back. In the meantime, the HPC rainfall forecast has gone up from yesterday. I had said that a shift in speed or track may double our totals... well we are getting close to it.

I have kept the regional radar at the bottom of this post, but you can get it on my TV Graphics tab above.

Below is my model analysis, but some of the maps are not easy to read. I have cut out our region, along with highlighting Maryland in a yellow circle.

Late Morning UPDATE:
Now that the models are trickling in, I can see the development, or perhaps over excitement of cold air in the computer models. There is a ton of information to sort through, but what I try to do here is provide the best graphical display. I will try to keep this short, but sweet.
The NGM (here), shows the next development for Saturday morning. This looked heavier on the NAM model, but the rain that moves on late Friday, will be here on Saturday morning, but perhaps break into showers during the day. The arctic boundary to our west will turn rain to snow in Chicago. That white line shows the freezing line. Could be interesting football weather in Michigan mid day.
The NAM shows low pressure slowly passing overhead, and keeping steady rain around through Saturday evening. The low in the Great Lakes looks stronger here, and the band of precipitation behind the freezing line would translate to heavy snow from Chicago to South Bend, IN, and Michigan. The way this wraps up, will pull cold air farther south behind the storm. That will arrive on Sunday- and settle in on Monday.

Snow Next Week?
Here is my personal favorite- the Canadian (from Environmental Canada) showing the surface and upper level maps behind this storm on Monday. On the left, the surface map shows what is left of the Low Pressure Center, just spinning itself out. It is stacked aloft, and circulating cold air around it, while drifting east of the Great Lakes. The black line is the 'freezing' line that is well to our south and moving off of the coast. It does not guarantee freezing temperatures for us, but it supports snow development in the clouds. The image on the right, shows the upper level chart at 500mb. This is the energy needed to generate showers, and there is a lot of it. The push of arctic air moves in during the day, keeping us in the 40s, with an afternoon rain or snow shower. The X in Ohio is the second push with the core of the cold air. That will arrive on Tuesday. This is why I put rain or snow showers for Monday, but snow showers or flurries on Tuesday. Usually the best chance for this is in the hilly terrain north and west of Baltimore, I will fine tune this we get closer. Just showers- but a start and sign of the changing season.

Complex Storm Comes in Pieces

2008-11-12T07:17:00.004-05:00

This morning, I was a little concerned about the rain that showed up on the local radar just south in Virginia. I had expected the rain to not make it this far east until tonight or tomorrow morning.
So, this is one of those days to plan for the worst and hope for the best.
As the storm develops, we will have moderate to heavy rain roll in on Thursday. The will be compounded by the strong southeasterly winds that develop.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's forecast for rain shows the heavy amount just off of the coast. This is in line with the coastal Low I mentioned yesterday- shooting off to the east.
We are on the edge of the 1 inch rain forecast, but any delay in the cold front moving, or stronger coastal development could hold up the forward speed. That could double our rainfall.

Here is the Adonis model wind plot for Thursday afternoon. The longer arrows indicate winds in the 30 mph range or higher. That is along the coast and Delmarva. It will feed more moisture into this storm, and make for a nasty and raw day.
If you have not gone to my new blog on Examiner.com, today I have Part 2 of my Winter Outlook series. There is also video of snow making in Snowshoe, WV.

Chilly Veterans Day. End Of Week Storm Update

2008-11-11T07:37:00.002-05:00

This morning, we bottomed out with a low of 29F at BWI. That is the first time we were in the 20s since March 24th when the temperature hit 27F. The next storm, is still complicated, as it looks like it will go through a transition or shift of energy 3 times between now and Friday. This may not be a major storm, but it could spread out into two separate moderate storms overlapping. The importance is whether it sets the stage for the upcoming season. I follow the philosophy that our winter pattern often develops in November, and will repeat itself many times over the winter. So the track and behavior of the cold air with these storm tracks can be crucial in an active season. It may be stormy, but the track will determine whether it's snow or rain for us. But that is speculation, NO SNOW with this storm....

First it surface Low in Kansas this morning. that has already wound itself up, and shifting it's energy southeast (occluding). The new low will develop over Missouri, and head into the Great Lakes. It's the trailing cold front that will be out focus, tapping into the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. It the upper level energy in the jet stream that will help develop another surface low near New Orleans. So while the rain will look closer on the radar tomorrow, and spread clouds our way, it's south-not west we have to look for our rain.
Thursday will be our wet day, at least how it looks now. The ADONIS model we use on TV shows moderate rain just to our south by Thursday morning, on the way in.
This looks more like and over running event. That is the rain spreading way out ahead of the storm, and bumping into the dry air we have in place. While that would give hours of virga (false rain on radar), we should have an strong easterly wind to add moisture to the air, and I suspect it will be a wet Thursday.

Friday is the day to watch:
The GFS shows rain spreading in from the south, and I have analyzed a developing Low off of the South Carolina Coast. It looks a lot like the last storm. The model shows moderate rain regenerating itself in more of a conveyor belt along a stalled front in the mountains. That set up would keep us wet through Saturday. Notice the strong 988mb Low pressure in Canada. That will be the source of a cold air push behind this storm.. This is not a bad idea, since the low will spin out a day before if builds the cold air and drops south. If it pushes sooner, we could kiss the stalled front goodbye.

The Canadian shows more of a coastal low scenario on the coast. Here is the surface Low in western Maryland on Friday morning, with the larger 'cold core' Low in Minnesota. That is farther south than the GFS, and supports the energy transfer to the coast- ahead of the 'Canadian Cold Air Push'.
The heavy rain is laid out on Friday morning, just off of the coast, but the analysis give me the impression of a coastal low forming near the Georgia/South Carolina border. That would likely push off of the coast, and cut our rain off during the day Friday. A much different expectation giving the same starting point as the GFS.
This looks a lot more like the last two storms, and I have to go with persistence. So given that, let's carry the Canadian a little farther into the weekend. I like this models, because it does perform better in the winter with coastal storms, and it has a better resolution with cold air in Canada.

Here is the Canadian model for Sunday Afternoon. The blue line is the infamous 540 (dm) line of thickness, that translates to a rain/snow line with storms. This also shows the push of cold air surging in by Saturday night. The upper level energy will support heavy Lake Effect Snow, and may bring us the chance of flurries or snow showers by Sunday afternoon. I did not put it on my TV forecast, since I do have a tendency to be bias towards snow. I wanted to wait another day to see if this set up holds over the GFS. One thing for sure, this will push cold air down to the Gulf Coast, and overnight temperatures near freezing could reach northern Florida.
That is a lot to digest, and just two different models. Hopefully there will be more agreement on way or another with today's models. Stay tuned.....

A Storm This Week?

2008-11-09T13:11:00.006-05:00

First we start off the week with an upper level trough and core of the cold air left over from last week's blizzard. That is what will hold us in the 50s, but also help to carry a partly to mostly cloudy view our way. Here is the NAM showing the 500mb vorticity. The green and yellow essentially highlight the base of the trough and cold air. That is the instability that allows morning sun to develop clouds by mid day and perhaps overcast into the afternoon. Some down slope comes into play, and will allow more sun around the bay and eastern shore.

So what's up for the rest of the week?

Last week, the idea was to develop the next short wave (surface storm) and bring it in behind this trough on Wednesday. Over the weekend, that fell apart, but Friday was looking more like the wet day for us. So if it happens, now? There is a split in what is expected...just look at the Friday morning maps below.
The Canadian is developing a coastal storm, but pulling it just far enough east that we get clipped or just missed. That looks a lot like what just happened last week. Of course, that also brings up the issue that the models have not had a good run of tracking coastal storms, so this would be up in the air. Especially 5 days out.

The GFS is more along the lines of the jet stream digging deeper into the central plains, but not clearly identifying any surface storm. In fact there is no indication of anything off of the east coast for this same time period. However, the leading end of the trough, shows a strong southerly flow taping into Gulf of Mexico moisture, and unlike the Canadian, is more of a wet scenario for the entire east coast.
The UNISYS analysis of the precipitation shows the moderate rain for Friday morning. This does hint at some circulation near North Carolina, but the timing is way

Winter Outlook From Wednesday Nov 5th (Examiner has tech problems)

2008-11-07T06:34:00.004-05:00

This post is what you should have seen on my Examiner paste. I am sorry for the technical problems
You voted on this winter season’s snowfall and some scientists believe it’s the beginning of ‘Colder’ Climate Change…

Every November, as it gets cooler, the barrage of questions and even suggestions on the winter season pop up. I have never hid the fact that I love snow, so forgive me as I write from that perspective. Besides, I’m a weather guy- I should love weather!

According to the small poll I held, many of you are expecting a modest winter. This is a pretty good bell shaped curve with the emphasis on above average snowfall. If we end up with 35 inches at BWI-Marshall, that would be nearly double the 30 year average. The ambitious 60+ inch group of 4 are expecting something to happen that has only been recorded one other time- but those 13 years ago. As for the pessimistic group in the under 15 inch range, that is what the past two seasons have brought us.

'There's a little black spot on the sun'... or none?

The sun has the biggest impact on our weather. That should be a no brainer since it’s our source of heat and energy. But it’s hard to get past the overload of media stories focusing on ‘something else’. My purpose is not to dispute pollution, but I do argue that there are many factors that impact our global climate. The scientific community has a large following of this philosophy as well. Basically the theory is that sunspots (storms with cooler temperatures on the surface of the sun) actually result in more solar energy shooting off and reaching earth. The result is a warm up for the planet when it’s active, and a cool down when it’s calm. I have paid a lot of attention to the sunspots over the past few decades. In 2004, it was reported that the sunspot activity was at a 6000 year record. This year it has been almost silent. What gives? That is the million dollar question. The last time there was this little activity was back between 1645 and 1712. It was called the Maunder Minimum and corresponds to the 'little ice age'. I have posted a few stories below....

On this information alone, it would be easy to think not only should we have a colder than normal winter, but many more to come. Many of the Almanacs point to the sun as their source of forecasting, and I will touch on some of them next week. There are many.. But there are many factors influencing the weather as well. This year we add a potential La Nina in the Pacific which is notorious for cold spells in the Eastern US. Add in the Pacific Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and various other factors, I will discuss at the end of the month. All leading to above normal snowfall potential. Personally, I have tried to take my bias out of the mix, and believe that we are in for a cold and stormy winter. Remember, that there is a wide range of snow in any year in Maryland, and all it takes is one good coastal to dump and blow out any expectations. We can also have a lot of storms that either hug the coast and turn us to rain, or jump out to sea and miss us. That is all part of the pattern to study. Stay tuned...

For more on this Sunspot activity, check out this link to New Scientist Space.

Fox News has a report from scientist saying Forget Global Warming, Prepare for a new Ice Age.

A story yesterday in Investors Business Daily pointed out that the planet has been cooling since 1998, ice growth had begun in the northern Hemisphere last year, and parts of the Southern Hemisphere have already experienced some extreme conditions in their winter. These links may take you away, so please come back for the rest below.

I encourage your comments, thoughts and questions. Please use the section below and we'll see where the discussion goes...

Updated! Non Tropical Coastal- New Named Storm in Caribbean

2008-11-06T06:33:00.004-05:00

This looks like a few storms we have had since late summer. Today, a north wind brings us 'warmer' air. This storm is yet another sign of all of the energy off of the coast, that may play into my theory of a wild, snowy winter. More on this storm, along with a recap of my Wednesday Winter Outlook can be found on my examiner page. I also wrote a little tribute to one of my heroes, Michael Crichton. He passed away yesterday.

I can't believe I made a post this morning and erased all of my tropical stuff. Needless to say, there is a new Tropical Storm in the Caribbean. Paloma is the 16th named storm of 2008. The season lasts through November 30th, so this is not too rare. It is expected to reach Category 2 Hurricane status as it crosses Cuba this weekend. That country has already had a rough year. Fay, Gustav, and Ike were enough to rip a few paths in an already impoverished nation. This will not help matters, but a reminder how some seasons tend to lock into a pattern or favored areas. Remember Florida in 2004. Hey, some winters do the same thing, and the atmosphere likes to repeat itself.

Remember that I will be writing most of my daily blogs on Examiner.com, but return here for more detailed model breakdowns for big storms.

Winter Examiner Poll

2008-11-02T09:21:00.004-05:00

Here is one of the few cases early voting can be good and fair. As I shifted my blog to Examiner.com, there are still some limitations. I am using this spot for a Winter Season Snow Poll - At the right. What do you you think about this season? The poll will end Wednesday morning, and I will post the results on Examiner. I will also spend at least 1 day each week on the seasonal forecasts. Check back for Wednesday Winter Outlooks.
The chart at the right is of a wild 10 year period we just had with the top 1 and 2 and bottom 3 and 4 seasons on record. We've had dramatic swings in both directions.
Note:
2005-2006 = 19.5"
2006-2007 = 11.0"
2007-2008 = 8.5"

Moving to Examiner.com

2008-10-30T08:04:00.006-04:00

After nearly 4 years of blogging, and the past year on the improved Blogger set up- I have made the move to be a Baltimore Weather Examiner. It has been in the works for a few months, and hopefully today to partnership will be a flawless transition. Please check out my Examiner Page. The link will open in this window, but may hold the banner from my web site. If it's too busy, cut and past this into your browser:
http://www.examiner.com/x-1586-Baltimore-Weather-Examiner
If you are here for the first time, please scroll down and you'll get an idea of how I cover my storm forecasting and blogging. Please contact me and let me know what you think..
Note: Keep this link handy. I will continue to post model analysis here, as well as days when I have many images to share.
In honor of my transition, and new layout, I wanted to post some pictures Jim Schuyler recently sent me. Above is a great fall shot from Prettyboy Reservoir in Baltimore County. Below was last weekend and a perfectly timed shot some kyakers at Great Falls, VA.

October Snow: The Models Show a Chance This Afternoon Closer To Home

2008-10-29T07:17:00.009-04:00

Guns and Roses sang November Rain, but should someone write a song about October Snow? Even the pumpkins were shocked. Last week I mentioned a snowstorm I experience on Halloween at Cornell (Ithaca, NY), but it's still a rarity for them too. Lots of schools were closed and power went out from the heavy snow and high winds.
I have posted the Snow Totals on my story with abc2news.com

Some of the snow amounts over 1 foot extended into the Poconos of northestern PA. Even western Maryland got in on the act.

Here is a snapshot from this morning, showing the snow on the ground at Frostburg State University. Our floor director told me this morning that her daughter went to school there just so she could have more snow. That's a woman after my own heart.

Here is a new, cleaner view of the Upper Level Energy at 500mb (around 18,000ft). This shows the potential for showers to carry over the mountains and reach central Maryland this afternoon and evening.
I've analyzed the wind direction off of the Lakes...and circled the vort max in the orange shading over central Maryland. This is the spin of energy tat should carry the showers over the mountains. The Number [540] is 5400m and represents the thickness of the atmosphere which translates to a layer of near freezing air aloft. Colder air contracts and is less thick in between certain layers.
While downtown temperatures should be around 47F, I expect lower 40s or colder up north near the PA. So the Hereford Zone of Baltimore County and Carroll County should have snowflakes mixed in, thanks to colder cloud temperatures. A burst may occur close to dark, that could coat the grass, but the ground is still relatively warm, so the roads will be fine.
Tomorrow and Halloween we get back to more sun, and a gradual warm up.

Surpise Storm: Nor'Easter Bring Taste of Winter

2008-10-28T05:27:00.005-04:00

Yup, this one caught me off guard! I was not alone, just look at the historic World Series game last night in Philadelphia. The first time 'ever' a game was suspended due to rain. They did not plan for it, but at least the score was tied when the game was stopped. They will 'try' to resume it today, but I have my doubts. The rain should stop tonight, but the strong winds may force the delay another day. Besides, do the Phillies want to potentially win with a sparse crowd?. I claim to be a step ahead of the models... and I think I was- but then I got trampled. I had showers for our north side, and during my update yesterday afternoon, I tried to explain why it expanded south. Well this 'spin' developed into a potent storm off of the coast overnight. This rapid development, with a pressure drop over the 1mb per hour to classify a 'bomb'. This has resulted in a dramatic wind field as it pulls cold air into the center. That is why we expect gusts up to 45mph today. Even as the storm pushes farther away, the winds will continue to whip up. This Advisory map tells the true story. Wind Advisories (tan) all the way up the coast. Winter Weather Advisories (light blue) in the Poconos and Catskills. Even A Winter Storm Warning (purple) for parts of Central NY.

Here is the snowfall forecast for NY, that may make your mouth water....well mine at least.
As the cold air spills in and turns the rain to all snow this morning, Lake Ontario will also enhance the snow, especially as the storm pulls away and the wind can do it's thing.
Binghamton will have a dramatic range of 2 inches to nearly a foot from their western towns to the eastern mountains. The mountains over 3,000 and 4,000 feet in the Catskills along with the Tug Hill Plateau- east of lake Ontario could easily see well over 1 foot of snow. I can't wait to see the pictures.
The final surge of energy will arrive tomorrow with more showers developing, and some could mix in snowflakes north and west of the beltway. That does include Baltimore and Carroll Counties.

Afternoon Update: Surprise Rain- Is This a Sign?

2008-10-27T10:25:00.007-04:00

I had rain in my forecast this morning, but it was just for the northern areas. I did not expect this line to extend as far south as it did. However, the upper level maps this morning, did support it. Here is the 500mb map from the NGM showing the vorticity or energetic 'spin' aloft. This allows not only for enhancement of any showers in the afternoon, but surviving the trip across the mountains. That is exactly what it did, as seen on this radar snapshot from 2pm.

So is this a sign? A sign in this pattern that anything heading our way having a better chance of developing and maxing out. Well, here is the 500mb ma fro Wednesday morning. The next vort max, which essentially is the final push of cold air with this upper level Low, will pass just to our south. The vort max itself is seen in red, and this position is maximum potential for us in central Maryland. Combine this will cold air aloft, and my call from last week may still hold. Perhaps even more so with rain and snow showers not only in the mountains, but we could have the first flakes close to home by lunch on Wednesday. My fingers are crossed. Are yours? If you go to the Seasonal Tab on my full web site, you will see a new page I developed with Ski Bonk. Feel free to scroll around and get in the snow mood.

Here is the long range map from the Japanese Model in honor of Tony Pann. This is the cold air spilling in behind the weekend storm. Although this is a long shot, it does indicate a chance of it ending as snow- at least just west and north as the cloud level temps (850mb) will be near freezing. Still, I think it's a little too early for 'stickage'

Shaking Things Up... And Down Under

2008-10-27T07:44:00.009-04:00

The earthquake map here shows the results from the last 7 days, but a lot of activity took place over the weekend. The one yellow dot in southern PA, was in York County. This is the second on this month. While it was officially reported as a magnitude 2 on the Richter Scale, it does remind us that although not as vibrant as the San Andreas Fault, there is still seismic activity in the east.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands also had it's second shock of the month.

Australia enters it's spring season and this beautiful full arch rainbow is one of the few promising things the Ausies have seen.

Last Wednesday (10/22), Sydney had it's coldest day in 30 years with a high of 58F.

The Blue hills of New South Whales had snow for only the 5th time in 50 years of record keeping.

North in Brisbane and Coffs, severe storms brought lightning and large hail. The image here with the flip flops is my favorite.

Thanks to Charlie Wilson for this information and images from the Sydney Morning Herald.

More on our chance of midweek flurries and another hit early next week, on an evening post. So please, check back then.

Winter Outlook: Old Farmers Almanac

2008-10-25T09:32:00.003-04:00

My post I promised got erased, but I wanted to get this on for the weekend. I am compiling a comparison of all of the winter outlooks and will have that page ready soon. Here is the cold and snowy look from the OLD Farmer's Almanac. They also have an interesting article on Global Cooling you can view here. More on that later. Gotta run

Rain, Rain, On The Way. It Will Be Here Saturday.

2008-10-24T05:39:00.003-04:00

That large storm I mentioned yesterday, is still on target to make for a wet start to the weekend. Here is the generic 1-3 day rainfall forecast from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center). These are mainly generated from the GFS model. You can see the heavy rain expected to our north and west, while Baltimore falls in the 'near 1 inch' range.
Here is the break down for Baltimore from a few of the models:

GFS: 0.85"
NGM: 0.41" (through Sat evening)
NAM: 1.37"

So a wide range to pick from, but a solid shot of a soaker. The models are calling for us to hit the low 60s, but i have a hard time expecting us to warm up that much with an easterly flow, and the cool damp air already in place. If this was a winter set up, we would be calling this a 'cold air dam', and have the physics of a phase change from snow/ice and rain to deal with. Either way, I went 60F for Saturday on TV, but there is a good chance that we spend most of the day in the 50s. It should be noted that winds will be strong out of the east and southeast over 30 knots.. translating to about 35 mph. That will make for a raw day, but only one day. The wind will be strong on Sunday, but it will clear out.
I know I promised another winter long range outlook. I will get that online later today- so check back then or over the weekend. On a side note, there still is hope for flurries next week close to home.

Snow Storm Out West Will Feed Rain Here Saturday.

2008-10-23T08:21:00.004-04:00

That is one impressive looking storm. A bulls eye of sorts in the center of the country, responsible for Winter storm Warnings in western Nebraska and Kansas. However, it is spun out and has run it's course, and warped dry air around the center. A secondary Low will develop at the famed 'triple point' to it's southeast, and that will be our main source of rain this weekend.
That same High Pressure just north of New York State that brought us this cold snap, will park over New England and enhance our wind feeding off the ocean into the storm. We will be on the warm side, so no snow here- yet. Just a good soaking Saturday, but optimism that it will speed through and clear out for a decent Sunday.
The original Low will not disappear complete. As it meanders into Canada, it will help to pull down our coldest shot of the season next week. The pattern is looking interesting early next week, as a coastal Low may really wind up near New England. This would be a stronger version of what happened just a day and a half ago. The result will not only be a continued 'colder than normal' pattern, more showers, but perhaps more widespread snow showers. I know I hit on this yesterday, so I will wait for another model run to lock into it. In my weekend out look on tomorrow's post, I put my confirmation on whether we get some here or not.

Snow North, Foliage From Space

2008-10-22T05:02:00.009-04:00

It snowed! It really snowed! Well up north in NY State.... but it did what it was suppose to. Here is the Satellite/Radar image from 5:30 this morning- along with my analysis. Strong wind wrapping into a developing Low Pressure off of the New England Coast and pulled cold air south, and helped produce snow showers off of Lakes Erie and Ontario. As I showed yesterday, the upper level support may carry some of these clouds far enough south to cover northern Maryland, but the flakes will not make it here. The same wind off of the lakes that gets enhanced while moving up higher terrain, dries out moving down the mountains as it heads here. Only under special conditions can we get some of that our way.
It may not be that far off. After this weekend's storm, an impulse of energy combined with a surge of colder air will reach us on Monday. Below you can see the surface and 500mb maps for Monday.
On the Left is the Surface map showing a small but potent Low Pressure developing off of the coast, and the pink shading showing the area where showers are likely. This image also shows the potential freezing line (5400m thickness from 100mb to 500mb) which I highlighted in white. That is far enough south to support at least snow flakes at cloud level.

Here is the upper level 500mb map for the same time frame. This shows a vigorous upper level feature or vort max, which is often what I use to sniff out snow showers days ahead. This is not a big storm, but it is following the track just to our south, that is most promising is you want some flakes. It might be a bit premature to mention this on TV, but I will lean in this direction

This is the latest image from MODIS on NASA's Tera Satellite. It was taken over a week ago on October 12th, but it does show the areas of near and past peak very well. They look reddish/brown and dominate the mountains up to our north.
It will be interesting to see the next image from our region, as well head into peak color in the next week or two. Below is the latest local update from the Foliage Network for the Mid Atlantic and South East.

Winter Folklore

2008-10-21T06:42:00.004-04:00

I promised last week that I would start looking into some long range forecasts and even folklore. So for today, I ask you for your assistance. If you grow or buy local produce, check this one out and let me know:

Onion skins very thin,
Mild Winter coming in;
Onion skins thick and tough,
Coming Winter cold and rough.

Well, once this front passes today, it will set the stage for the first round of winter like air.... at least just to our north. It still looks good for Central NY to get snow tonight and Wednesday morning.
Here is the 500mb level map for Wednesday morning. This is an indication of the energy at around 18,000ft- that can translate to clouds and showers. While I don't think we will have the surface wind support, this does show a flow from Lake Ontario to northern MD. It might be possible that flurries fall in PA, but this will keep the clouds nearby and hold temperatures down deep in the 50s. The official NWS forecast has us sunny, but with this cold air aloft, it is hard to imagine that we will hold off the instability clouds. At least early in the day.

The weekend storm will most likely bring us rain. The question is will it warm up or stay chilly?
The GFS (what most forecasters in the US use), has the Low riding into the Ohio Valley- keeping us on the warmer side. Here is the Canadian Model, showing Saturday's storm with a surface Low Pressure forming over Virginia Beach. That is farther east of the GFS, and means more rain/colder temps for us. I have not completely translated this to the extended forecast, but I might start to drop my weekend forecast temperatures tomorrow morning. What is more interesting, is that the cold air behind this storm, might support flurries for us by Monday or Tuesday. If it still looks promising, I will hit more on that tomorrow.

Frost vs. Freeze. First Snow in NY?

2008-10-20T05:44:00.007-04:00

What is the difference?
A frost can develop with air temperatures as mild as 38F or 40F. It's the surface of your car, or blades of grass that can drop lower and allow condensing moisture to form ice crystals. A freeze however is when the air temperature actually drops to freezing (32F). The difference can lead to an abrupt end to the growing season for plants and late season crops. A hard freeze pretty much takes care of everything growing as temps drop below freezing for at least 4 hours. This morning, temperatures dropped into the 20s and 30s. That was the core of this cold spell and thanks to clear skies and Sunday's temps only reaching the upper 50s.

First Snow in NY
Beside my personal connection of 4 years in Cornell (Ithaca), working in Syracuse and Binghamton... I think it is worth mentioning the seasonal shift- even if it's not here.
Let's jump past the next cold front and into Wednesday morning. Here you can see the 850mb temperature map (the most efficient for measuring temperature forecasts).
Here you can the blue shading indicating colder air spilling in across the lakes. This is actually 6C-8C- which would translate to near freezing surface temperatures. No big deal, right? We just had that this morning. However, this profile of sub freezing temperatures near the Great Lakes- along with the proper wind flow, will allow bands of snow to develop.

Here is the surface weather map for Wednesday morning, showing a small and weak Low Pressure forming off of the New England Coast. That will enhance the North West flow across Lake Ontario and dump across central New York the first snow of the season. Considering the warm water temperature in contrast to the colder air, there could be some heavy bands of snow- but where will depend on the precise wind direction. I will focus more on this as the snow develops...but isn't that exciting? Not for us. The same northwest wind rides down the mountains and dries out. So this type of set up is not going to bring us snow. It's confined to the mountains and lee side of the lakes in NY. I'm jealous. First ski areas opening up in Colorado last week, and now snow on the way in my old stomping grounds. On a side note, Ithaca, NY had a Halloween snow storm in 1993 that dumped between 2 and 6 inches of snow. I don't find that a scary thought, but some of you may.

Weekend Chill, Winter Forecast (Not Mine)

2008-10-17T05:54:00.005-04:00

As advertised all week, the cooler air is spilling in, and this will be the way we balance out the warm week. There will be another disturbance passing through on Saturday, with it's clouds, will hold out temperatures down in the 50s. That's afternoon temperatures cooler than the last few mornings.

My forecast for Sunday morning's Susan G Komen's Race for the Cure in Hunt Valley will likely dip down into the 30s. We are expecting 40,000 people at the event, so perhaps we can help make it feel warmer.

The cold air has put me in the mood to start looking forward to winter. Come on, I know I am not alone. I like to wait until November to make my call, since it allows me a chance to see how the pattern is holding or evolving- some put their forecasts out very early. Many are trending cold and snowy, like this one from Henry M at Accuweather. His forecast calls for an Eastern Storm Track that will keep us colder with heavier snow than normal. The northern plains will near to below normal, while the Rockies will have more snow on the northern half. A closer look below, shows Baltimore close to 30 inches, above our seasonal average of 18-21 inches. It should be noted that Carrol County typically can see 36 inches, while less than 12 inches is the norm on the Lower Eastern Shore. I will compile all of the forecasts and post them on my snow page (under reconstruction now)

We hit The Trifecta!

2008-10-16T08:17:00.004-04:00

Yesterday's added sun boosted us to a high of 82F, bringing us to 3 days in a row in the 80s. It was a long hot afternoon walking 18 holes and carrying my bag on the golf course. It was my first time out in a month, and made me wonder if I should have hung it up for the year. For the record, I was with Tony Pann, and he rolled his bag, which made the difference of at least 5 strokes.
The view was great! I was surprised by all of the evergreen needles that are being let go. Is that a result of high growth this summer, or are the trees preparing for something else...say a hard winter. I have heard so many folklore forecasts, and many are pointing to a hard winter. We do have a chance of frost this weekend, so I will begin with the first snow forecast (not mine), then as we get in the mood. Next week, I will bring up the folklore forecasts.
So far, the peak leaves are getting closer. Here is the update for PA and New England. We have some color already, but next weekend the peak areas should be in western Maryland and the PA line.

Never a Dull Moment

2008-10-15T05:47:00.008-04:00

Yesterday the temperature reached 82F at BWI. In the 80s for a second day in a row, and all I could hear was how great it was. From golf to yard work- well I think the golf was the great part. It was a beautiful day, and I'm a cold weather guy. The surge of warm air was not a surprise, and still not a record. It is quite common to have a few warm spells in the fall, and the warmer spells will be balanced out by a dramatic cool down this weekend. But don't complain... first, we've had a good stretch of good weekends. Secondly, when you consider what has been happening across the country (and beyond), we've been pretty lucky.
Here you can see the highlights across the country (map coming soon):

FIRE: There were 2 wild fires that remained unchecked outside of LA yesterday. Fueled by the warm dry Santa Anna winds- so far a total of 49 structures have burned.

SNOW: A storm in the Rockies in the past week has helped 2 Ski Resorts open today in Colorado. Loveland Ski Area announced this morning that it will open for the season at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday. Arapahoe Basin, which originally planned a 9 a.m. opening Wednesday, switched it today to 8:30 a.m. after Loveland's plans were announced. It's like gas stations battling across the street from each other. More can be found here.

Warm and Quiet: That is the story from Maryland to Mississippi. That's where temperatures were averaging the low 80s.

Hurricane OMAR! This was upgraded overnight. As if it wasn't bad enough that Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands had a 6.1 earthquake last weekend, they are bracing for this Category 1 storm by this Thursday. the projection here for the weekend is moving safely farther away from the Eastern US.

I Told You We'd Get There

2008-10-14T05:43:00.003-04:00

That would be back to 80F. I had an email about a week or two ago asking if we were done with warm days, and without even needing to look at long range weather maps, I felt pretty confident that another warm stretch would return. It's not bragging, just the law of averages. This is a point I make often, and it almost never seems to fail. We hit 80F yesterday, and there was a lot of warm weather to be had- despite the stubborn clouds. It looks like 80F is possible again today and Wednesday, before another dramatic change and drop by the weekend. It's like the stock market, but less people get hurt.

Here is the image I showed on the TV this morning. It is just listed as Fall in Maine, but the bridge makes the shot. This would be great in any season, and once again make Bob Ross proud.
Keep sending these in either through the Weatherbug, or directly to me, so I can share them.

The Great Pumpkin

2008-10-13T09:08:00.003-04:00

The moon will officially be full tomorrow the 14th. However, it looked close to full as it set this morning over our airport cam at BWI Marshall just before 6am. This first pictures was taken at 5:43am- when I found it by chance. Just 4 minutes later, it was already slipping below the western horizon. A full moon is thought to have a wide range of impacts. In addition to tidal swings, teachers will say the kids act wild on a full moon, and a growing field of research on the connection with the lunar cycle and earthquakes. In fact there was a large 6.1 magnitude earthquake this weekend in the US Virgin Islands and Porto Rico. Add to the mix, Wild fires in Southern California, and up to a foot of snow in the mountains of Utah and Montana

Warm Weekend. Is This Indian Summer?

2008-10-10T06:48:00.002-04:00

We are on target with the pace of afternoon temperatures to reach deep into the 70s. A storm in the South Carolina has helped to pump in some mild air, but is staying far enough away to just throw a few high clouds our way. Yesterday we made it to 78F- a few days before I expected the bump to occur, but we all win out. What is important to keep in mind is that this is FOG season. We had it this morning, with the typical 90 minute delays on the Eastern Shore. As the warm air settles in, so does rise in dew point temperatures. The longer nights allow the great chance of temperatures dipping to that dew point and developing fog. This morning, it was confined to the areas by water- such as York Rd in Baltimore County- which is close to Loch Raven Reservoir. Also, a few valleys have trended colder and developed some of that fog. This weekend, I expect it to be more widespread- but just a morning event.

Indian Summer:
This questions comes up just about every fall. Is this Indian Summer? Well, first we have the thank the early settlers of "The Americas", for mistakenly thinking this was India. They noticed warm weather into the fall season, when the same time of year in Europe would routinely trend much cooler. It should also be noted that Europe is higher in latitude and has longer nights/shorter days in October as well.
The most accepted definition of Indian Summer is a string of warm days reaching into the 80s after the first frost. however, I have seen it in some parts of the country defined as 5 days into the 80s. Other definitions lead to it being in November. Either way, some of us, but not all, had a frost early this week. Does it matter? I say enjoy it now, because the long range models have a dramatic cool down by next weekend. I always told my students to look out for a balance of numbers. So Near 80F would be over 10 degrees above normal. That would be balanced out by afternoons in the 50s when the pattern shift arrives.

A Big Change is Coming

2008-10-08T05:25:00.005-04:00

A change for the weekend weather that is.... did you think I was going political?
This weekend is chock full of activities, with the most pressure on the Baltimore Marathon and it's 17,500 runners. My concern was this next front stalling off of the coast, and keeping us with a steady easterly wind. That would have kept us cloudy and cool. However, it looks like most of the overnight models are pushing this through in a hurry and allowing us to warm up with some weekend sun. While the weekend forecast (as of this morning), does push us into the 70s with sun, this is fog season. Any hint of milder air, will also come with some higher dew points. The longer nights, and nearby water from lakes and the Chesapeake Bay, will aid in the good chance of morning fog. I have opted out of the marathon this year, but some of my coworkers are running it, and seem to be fine with fog, as long as it's not raining or windy.

If you like that, then you will surely like the potential of seeing an 80F day on Monday as warm air surges ahead of the next storm.
Here you can see a developing cold front similar to the one heading our way now. This pattern does not tend to give us a lot of rain, but it will surge warmer air in ahead of it. In fact, I have often noticed the models undercut the warming by a few degrees, so my 82F for Monday, might be conservative. The only thing I see that could hinder my optimism, would be a SE wind off of the Atlantic. The 850mb (around 5,000ft) temperature map shows the warm air surging in, but the surface flow around High Pressure in Maine will bring a light wind either out of the south east or south west. This will be determined by the location of that High on Monday, and how fast that cold front is moving. If we have a south east wind, that could shave 5 or more degrees off of the thermometer, especially for places near the water.

Fall Foliage Picture of the Day:

Defining Fall

2008-10-07T09:02:00.004-04:00

Quiet and Cold is the best way to describe this morning. The coldest spot was York, Pa at 33F, but Towson dipped to 36F (at least off the hill in valley by Riderwood ES).
I give it about a week until we have some truly good fall color in the leaves. Right now it's just a little spotty. So here is a snapshot from the great state of Maine. As you view this, consider, what is your definition of fall. I got an email from a loyal viewer this morning with his take:

Gotta laugh: You describe how you know it's fall by the leaves changing. I describe fall by the wife (and mother in law who lives with us) by them telling me it's time to take out the screens and put in the storm windows. Geez--I hate that job! LOL
Terry in Bell Air.

Thanks for sharing...

Sunday Was Sweet In The Football Suite, Despite Raven's Defeat

2008-10-06T06:16:00.008-04:00

I was lucky to get a ticket to the Classic Catering suite at M and T Bank Stadium yesterday. This view from the 10 yard line was on the south facing side of the stadium. It's been a while since I spent a few hours in one stretch outside... and it was hot! Although we only hit 73F in the afternoon, the sun made it feel more like the mid 80s and the seats were burning. Poor me, right? What's interesting is that lower sun angle in the fall can make it feel warming on your skin. It all depends on the angle the sun hits you. In the summer, with the sun almost directly overhead, you would feel the sun on your head, or as you lay down by the pool. In the fall, just sitting down, lets that sun focus it's rays on your face, arms, and chair at the game (if your on the visitors side of M and T Bank). By now you know the result of the game, and that took some of the enjoyment out of the air.
Some. A more dramatic change is on the way, as overnight temperatures could dip into the 30s (outside the beltway) Tuesday and Wednesday morning..
A Frost Advisory has been posted for the Pennsylvania Counties just to our north

That cold air should help accelerate the turning of the leaves. Before we get out chance to leaf peep, images from across the country are already pouring in.
One spot I am still waiting to visit, is Aspen Colorado. The unique thing about this place, is that the leaves all seem to turn the same color at the same time. This provides a layering of colors that would make Bob Ross happy. This actually looks like one of his pictures.

Oh, but wait, there's more. This morning I rediscovered our "photo's" section on our StormCenter Weathernet. In addition to thousands of neighborhood temperatures from across the country, we get pictures as well. Here is my favorite this morning. I will share more each day this month. If we're lucky, we'll have some snow mixed in by then...

First Foliage Report

2008-10-03T05:56:00.004-04:00

What are you doing this weekend?
The first few days of October have provided increasing leaf reports just to our north. While I have noticed some color in the trees nearby, just a short drive to the north will make all the difference. If you are trying to avoid the crowds of the Fells Point Festival, Michael Phelps Parade (here in Towson), or the Raven's game on Sunday... just take about a 2-3 hour drive into Pennsylvania. There you will find the leaves entering the 3 week period of 'near peak' conditions. While low to moderate color is the official report, the color is fresh and expanding daily. These chilly mornings are helping the transition... and the 'high color' should be more widespread in the next two weeks. At that point we always risk the threat of any storm taking down the leaves and missing out. If not this weekend, then just wait another 2 weeks until we have some good leaf color within our state borders. The typical leaf peeping season for Maryland ranges from mid October near the PA line and western mountains, late October inside the beltway, and as late as early November for areas near the Bay and the Eastern Shore.

Snow on Mars and our September Summary

2008-10-02T05:05:00.007-04:00

Snow!
Have you noticed the widget on the right side of this blog reporting weather conditions from the Phoenix lander on Mars. It's the Canadian contribution to the mission, and not considered to be biased after reporting snow early in the week. That's right, snow on Mars! There is a polar ice cap, which was thought to be made up of mostly Ammonia and Carbon Dioxide, but this mission is on a search for water and the basic building blocks for life. You can find more in this link.
This image is from one of the digs when the Phoenix uncovered (or can we say unmarsed?) apparent snow just under the surface. This snow report came out on June 20th.

Back on Earth...
Fairbanks, Alaska had their first 1 inch of snow for the season. After record snowfall in Alaska last winter, this round of snow arrived about 2 weeks ahead of normal.
Marquette, Michigan has snow in the forecast for the hills away from Lake Superior tonight. I'm jealous, but will wait at least until November until I start sharpening the edges on my snow board.

Is it me, or did September seem chilly? Not like the snow now in the forecast for Marquette Michigan, but an abrupt end to summer. In fact I remember blogging about some leaves turning in PA on Labor Day Weekend. Well, as it turns out, September in Baltimore averaged temperatures above normal- thanks in part to three 90F+ days in the first week. However, we have not had an 80F day since September 21st (nearly two weeks). Rainfall was almost twice the norm with Tropical Storm Hanna passing on the 6th, and the remnants of that no name storm last week. The wet weather can take the credit for our warmer than normal month. That is due to cloud cover and moist soil that tends to hold the overnight temperatures up a little higher- skewing the overall numbers.
Here is the breakdown:

With this chilly start to October, it will be interesting to see how this month ends up. I am sticking with my earlier projection for another warm up. Typically, this early surge of below normal temperatures will not last. The upper level patter does show a sign of a change trying to develop next week. This is temperature map at 850mb (about 5,000 ft) for Monday evening. The battle developing here is the shift in the ridge of High Pressure from the Ohio Valley, and a trough of Low Pressure coming out of
Colorado and entering Nebraska. That means a warm up for the northern plains, and a return to normal for the Mid Atlantic coast. I will be watching the strong flow and blocking pattern in the North Atlantic, which has allowed a steady flow of cool air down from Eastern Canada. Next week will determine if we can shake that by the middle of October. That cool flow in Canada is what tends to be leading the charge in what could be an early arrival of winter. Another outlook I am holding on to. Stay tuned...

Wake Me Up, When September Ends

2008-09-29T16:33:00.004-04:00

September rainfall is roughly twice that of normal after a flirt with two tropical systems (well one that was not named, but you know my view on that).
Monday, the markets on Wall Street Crashed. By mid week, our temperatures will crash. I will be off Tuesday and Wednesday- a time when the next cold front will bring us more showers, and a brand new Canadian air mass. I want to jump ahead to Wednesday evening (right before I get back)...
The Upper level trough with this next wave will arrive by Wednesday with two things to keep in mind:
First- the air mass itself supports temperatures that will likely stay in the 60s during the afternoons into the weekend.
Second- Thinking of how the clouds built up quickly today, we now how to watch these vort maxes or 'spokes of energy' wrapping around the trough. I've highlighted the trough in purple, but the yellow shading at the bottom of the trough here on Wednesday night is a sign that it will not be completely clear. The cold air aloft will help clouds to form quickly, and there might even be a stray shower. This is a classic example of 'instability'. When the sun goes down, the clouds clear, and the overnight temperatures get even colder. So by Thursday, and especially Friday morning, we could have temperatures dropped deep into the 40s. Not quite the first frost, but we are getting there.

Below is an active link to the hourly temperatures to follow the cold air on the way...

Storm Did What I Expected, Were You Dissapointed?

2008-09-29T05:32:00.006-04:00

I got a few emails over the weekend and more at the station this morning. The theme: Why are these storms not as wet or windy as predicted?
Really?
Last week I spend a lot of time discussing what this storm would do. On Friday I pointed out the winds at the beaches had exceeded 50mph already. The rain on Friday was hard to find, since we 'dry slotted', but we did get hit on Saturday. Not only did we get hit, not only did the storms contain lightning and thunder from Friday night through Saturday, but some of those downpours produced flooding.
This is an example of how rain can be heavy in some spots, and neglect others. But Saturday did hit most of us pretty hard:
Rainfall at BWI was 3.57", but this Doppler estimate shows over 5 inches in Baltimore County that resulted in significant flooding. This map shows the area that got hit hard lines up with I-83 and Falls Rd. That was the reason for two Flood Warnings that were posted Saturday night in Hunt Valley and Shawan. That all drains into the Jones Falls.... which if you saw our coverage on ABC2- was flooding Mount Washington in north Baltimore.
Below is a wider image to show show these bands set up. I did get a few reports from Harford and Cecil County with over 5 inches of rain as well, which was after this image was recorded.
Officially: BWI has had 6.73" of rain this month. Nearly double that of normal, and well above the only 0.35" last September. For the year, we are more than 5 inches above normal, while last year we were almost 9 inches below normal at this time. That explains why we have been reporting about the Great Pumpkin Shortage of 2008 as seen on Halloween-online.com. Another round of rain is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. I will make a mid afternoon post on that, since I will be off those days....

Rolling In Off The Ocean on a Storm With No Name

2008-09-26T05:53:00.012-04:00

A no name storm yesterday leads to recently named storm this weekend. More about my paraphrasing lyrics and soon to be 'Hurricane' Kyle below...

I do want to start with this satellite image of our no name Non Tropical- Tropical Storm. The convection, or developing storms around the center of circulation appeared to develop an eye off shore. This storm was responsible for coastal flooding and wave heights over 15 feet. My newly beloved Outer Banks of North Carolina took a hit on Nags Head with flooding on Virginia Dare Trail and Croatan Highway. But just like many tropical systems interacting the east coast, the rain and wind spread out on the north side. That is due to the onshore flow. But was some dry air wraps in off of the land, I highlighted a dry slot in yellow. that has caused the heavy rain band to split to the north s the center of circulation continued to push westward into the North/South Carolina border.
This dry slot can bust a rain forecast for some while others verify. Yesterday's rain ranged from Baltimore: 0.28"
Eastern Shore's American Corner 1.63"
Ocean City: 2.00" (Doppler Radar Estimated)
The radar image from Thursday evening posted here shows the onshore flow and the broken bands of rain. That distinct eye like circulation made landfall between Myrle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC. The afternoon will generate more rain, but it's a matter of watching where they develop to determine where it goes.

While heavy rain hit the Eastern Shore and beaches that resulted in 1- 3 inches yesterday, the banding has split the rain into pieces. The models I posted yesterday, and the updates since still show the heaviest rain near the center of the storm to our south, and the tropical feed off of the Atlantic into metro New York to our north.

As I mentioned yesterday, the combination of this storm and strong High Pressure east of Maine have funneled steady and sturdy winds well north of the storm. Here are the strongest winds from Thursday's reported on our Storm Center Weathernet:
Delaware:
Fenwick: 52 mph
Lewes, The University of DE : 50 mph
Rehoboth, Beach Plaza Hotel: 57 mph

Maryland:
Ocean City Chamber of Commerce: 56 mph

US Drought Monitor Updated September 23rd...

"After nine days I let the horse run free
cause the desert had turned to sea
There were plants and birds and rocks and things
There was sand and hills and rings"
OK the classic song from America is a stretch, but I could not get it out of my head. Instead of nine days, it's nine months into the year to bring some relief to the drought in the southeast mountains and coastal North Carolina.

Here is the active link to the Eastern Satellite and Radar for you to compare what areas in need are getting hit with rain.

The second storm I mentioned is yesterday, that will hit New England is now Tropical Storm Kyle. This circulation around our storm will steer this quickly north. It should stay well offshore, but reach Hurricane status before clipping Cape Cod.

Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast.

I have to leave it at this point. I have a busy slate today, but I will try to post more on the rest of this storm and our weekend later today.

Give That Thing A Name

2008-09-25T06:04:00.009-04:00

That thing being this storm off of the coast. It is impressive. While Air Force Recon flights have determined that is was not 'tropical' in nature, it sure is behaving like it.
Here is the 3 hour active radar:
The wind field is stronger on the north side. At 6:30 this morning, Ocean City had winds to 46mph, and over 30mph were hitting Annapolis. The center of circulation off of the North and South Carolina coastline is not truly a warm core, but there is a banding nature to the rain as it advances west and north. It is also sitting over the warm gulf stream, which is helping it to develop.
I say "give it a name", not to add to the hype, but follow a protocol of consistency. Last year the National Hurricane Center named a storm that was actually Sub Tropical - like this one. It was May 9th when Andrea was named a 'sub tropical storm'. A hybrid of a tropical and mid latitude cyclone. By giving this current coastal storm a name, it would bring more attention to coastal communities as to the threat it poses, and add more credibility to researching this type of system.
So, what is that threat?
Wind will average 15-35mph around Baltimore, but a steady 40-50 mph with higher gusts is what I expect in Ocean city and parts of the Eastern Shore.
Flooding from a steady wind piling up water on the western shore of the bay.

Rain may provide more flooding. Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's outlook which highlights the heavies rain off of the coast. The red shading from Ocean City to New York City can expect 2.5 to 4 inches, while another wave of low pressure could ride into New England leaving them with 5 inches of rain or more. For us in Baltimore, I think 1-3 inches of rain is a safe call.

Below is the NAM Model outlook showing the 'coastal' storm sliding westward into North Carolina. The blue arrow shows the strong east to northeast wind as a result of the pressure gradient between this Low and the High off of the Coast of Maine. You will also notice that there is also a band of heavy rain that pushes into Long Island. NY Friday evening. Here in Maryland we will get split between the initial low and this second wave, but our primary shot will be tonight and tomorrow morning. The upper level low will ride overhead this weekend, keeping the threat of rain around, but easing up by Sunday.

Link to Penn State's eWall

2008-09-24T14:53:00.001-04:00

Sorry if you wanted to view the model this morning and found no link. Here is the link to Penn State's eWall of the GFS from this morning.

Fog Video Coastal Storm

2008-09-24T05:56:00.006-04:00

I can't believe I went all day with video posted that did not work. For some reason, You Tube does not like the computer model video I showed, so today I will just post the link. Before you check out today's video below- please help me out with the poll on the right. I know some of you have problems playing video on your work computers. This may help me with more posts in the future...
Below is video I recorded over Loch Raven Reservoir when I was working in 'News Chopper 11" back in the fall of 1998. It was a common scene in around sunrise, but I only took video this morning. In retrospect I wish I had done more.
This is Steam Fog that is pretty common in the fall with longer cooler nights, and water that is relatively warm.

To answer the question from yesterday: No, I do not think we can rule out another 80F day. We hit 79F Sunday and Monday. The normal high is in the mid 70s, so a bump a few extra degrees should not be that hard. Also, fall around these parts is a gradual change with give and take. Almost like a marriage with early compromise, until one spouse dominates. No, not in my house, but I digress. These cool snaps are part of the give and take. Often when it gets cool too fast, the reverse will balance out within a week or two. Consider this past September: The 6th was wet with a high of 78F, but by the 13th we were back to 93F. I do believe fall is settling in early than we are use to, and winter will be here by Thanksgiving, but a few more warm days will pop up in between.

The next few days will seem like fall is in full swing. Yesterday I tried to post a movie of the Canadian Model showing a coastal low pushing into New Jersey.
This morning, the outlook is not as threatening for us, but still quite wet. The initial low will slide into North Carolina and spread rain our way by Thursday afternoon and last into the weekend. Combined with strong High Pressure in eastern Canada, we will have a steady east to north east flow keeping us int he 60s and wet. A secondary storm will form off of the coast, but instead of reaching us, it will head towards New England. Here is a link to the Penn State eWall. Slide your cursor along the top (hours are listed as (f36, f48, etc) to see the movement of the Low Pressure off of the coast work back north and west.

Blocking Pattern and Retrograding Low

2008-09-23T05:27:00.009-04:00

Now that fall is officially here, temperatures should begin steady drop. But the pattern we are in now will enhance that. The easterly wind has added some moisture and helped to hold our overnight temperatures in the 60s by the bay. The first signs of the fog season have begun as well.

Blocking Pattern
Typically weather systems in our part of the world, ride the westerlies and move west to east. Occasionally a 'block' in the upper level pattern can deflect that flow, or even reverse it for us.
Here is the 300mb (about 30,000ft) chart analysis for this morning showing the development of an upper level Low just to our south. That begins to deflect the flow, with the main branch of the jet stream in the Rockies and riding north in to Canada and clipping New England. This pattern in and of itself is a weak block, but our surface winds have been dominated by the surface High to our north dragging in a north east wind.

As we watch this pattern evolve, the upper level low gets stronger and instead of just blocking, it can actually steer weather systems the opposite way. In this case, from East to West. Here you can see the Thursday morning 300mb map with a more pronounced upper level Low and a distinct flow I highlighted coming off of the Atlantic and riding from southeast to northwest over Maryland.
That will help take a developing area of low pressure off of the coast, and bring it inland- instead of jumping out to sea.

The net result however will be wet for us as soon as Thursday and into the weekend. The surface low will follow this path just to our north. the Canadian positions it in the New Jersey coast then stalling for a Day in Northern PA. A few other models have slightly different tracks, but since this is not a winter snow or ice event, it's a matter of who will get more rain. Either way, it will get wet again and be a big chilly as this happens. We might spend a few days without reaching 70F.

Fall Begins. Equinox Not Equal

2008-09-22T05:35:00.004-04:00

At 11:44 am (Eastern) fall will officially begin. It marks the moment when the suns focus crosses the equator and slips to the southern Hemisphere for the next 6 months. The word equinox sounds a lot like 'equal', and that is how I introduced the concept to my students when I was teaching. My physics teaching in High School tried to convince the lass that the equal force of the sun's gravitational pull on the equator would allow an egg to stand on it's end. Not true! It's a demonstration I continue to see in both autumn and spring. I even did this my first year on TV. Since I could not duplicate it, I used double sided scotch tape to keep the egg upright. I have also mastered the bar trick of balancing a salt shaker on it's corner base, but that's another story for another time. Truth is though, if you have the right egg, a flat spot to sit it on... just add patience and a steady hand to do the balancing.
I was also taught that it was the day when the entire planet also had equal time of daylight and darkness as well. That is not entirely true. That's right, tomorrow being the first 'full' day of autumn will not have a longer night in time than daylight. Sure, the nights are getting longer. In fact this is the fastest change we can see in Maryland, as we are now losing 3 minutes of daylight each day. But, you have to consider that light bends. Remember that double rainbow video I posted two weeks ago? Or just think about the red and orange sky in the morning and evening. That is a demonstration of how light bends in our atmosphere, especially at dawn and dusk. So while the sun itself should be in our view for 12 hours today (splitting the time with darkness), the light of the sun bends and gives us an extra 8 minutes.
Sunrise: 6:54am Sunset 7:03pm

On Thursday, we can honestly say the night is longer than the day. Then we can focus on the beginning of the fog season. I'll have more on that tomorrow with some great video of fog from above.
On a side note:
Walgreens will now display severe weather watches and warnings along with other vital information on their electronic outdoor signs. I wonder if there will be a run on overpriced umbrellas (barely good for one use). Could be a stock pick this week....

Pass the Bucky

2008-09-19T00:42:00.008-04:00

I've been a little cryptic this week, and have not had much in the way weather insight- but I got a whole new perspective 'forward' from my trip to Wisconsin. This trip has been more about weather with a lack of weather at the same time. It's about approaching debut of our upgraded weather system thanks the the ingenious folks at Weather Central. There are some very cool things I can't wait to share on the air, but we are still two weeks away.
On my last full day here, Bucky Badger along with my tour guide, took me around the campus of the University of Wisconsin and Madison. Some more of the leaves are turning on this campus and city surrounded by two lakes. This is an absolutely gorgeous spot of the country. That's right, Wisconsin!
Beyond the fading era of Brett Favre, cheese heads, and cow jokes, I am floored by the simple beauty of of this area. I wish I could share more than these pictures, but it was enhanced by late summer weather. Here are a few spots I toured Thursday with Bucky Badger... I'll be back to straight up weather stuff next week.

Bucky on the main campus ....

The Wisconsin Capitol is on a hill in the middle of the city. A city that is on an isthmus- between two lakes. Both lakes can be seen from here, and each with it's own character. This view is at the end of State Street, which connects to the University and a bunch of restaurants and bars. A good spot for weather observation. Yeah, I saw two cirrus and a contrail in the afternoon.

I have not seen this in a long time.

2008-09-18T11:11:00.003-04:00

First: Big trees turning. I did see some color at my house last week, but here in Wisconsin, there is a little bit more color in the leaves. Oh, for some reason, the people here also merge 1/2 mile before construction signs tell them to shift lanes. Wow! People do know how to drive. I wish I could see these drivers in the snow.

Justin Berk AMS CBM Www.justinweathertalk.com Sent from my iPhone

Steam Fog

2008-09-17T07:23:00.002-04:00

September and October are fog season. The longer, cooler nights and relatively warmer water often produce foggy mornings. I use to see this over Loch Raven Reservoir when I was flying in the helicopter every day.
Here is a pond at The Greens in Ijamsville. You can see the fog forming off of the warmer water just like steam rising from a hot bath. While it has not completely cleared out yet, it will soon.

From Near and Far

2008-09-16T08:55:00.003-04:00

I guess I picked a good week to go on a business trip. A very quiet weather pattern will dominate. Fairly typical September stuff. Low humidity will lead to cool mornings and warm afternoons. In the middle, a ton of sun.
So for today, all I want to do is direct your attention to the Chesapeake Bay. Last Saturday, NOAA deployed a Smart Buoy at the mouth of the Susquehanna river, where it meets the Chesapeake Bay. It is the fifth in a series to track the nutrient levels in the Bay.
I could elaborate more, but I am in a hurry this morning, so click here for the full story.

On a side note, USA Today continues to tap into recent events to support it's agenda. Recently they posted a story about research showing proof that Global Warming is leading to stronger hurricanes. The problem with the research is that it is just a small comparison- back to 1981. Why not go back farther to the last height of the 30 year cycle? Say the 1950s? At least they quoted a reasonable source- Christopher Landsea who helped Dr. William Gray develop his long range forecasting for tropical storms, and currently works at the National Hurricane Center. Click here for their article.

From Above

2008-09-15T17:04:00.004-04:00

I am doing business in the upper Mid West this week. It's nice to see the clouds from the other side. As I enter a colder climate and into the air mass that is heading for Maryland, I wonder how many more leaves will turn at my house when I get back Friday. I'll try to post while I am away, but work is about a big change to the weather at Ch2

Justin Berk AMS CBM Www.justinweathertalk.com Sent from my iPhone

Ike's Storm Surge Charts

2008-09-13T10:18:00.003-04:00

Here are two charts of water level in Galveston and Manchester Texas. As you can see, although the water level rose well before the storm, it did not go above 15 feet in these locations, which made a big difference in flooding. It was bad, but it could have been worse.

Give credit to the National Hurricane Center with a pretty good forecast track. The eye made landfall in Galveston at 2:10am local time. The path and position of the eye kept the worst storm surge just east of Houston. It could have been much worse if the eye had been 20-40 miles left (south west) of the actual track. As a result the winds in Houston were more from the east as opposed to the south. Now we wait for the full assessment in daylight. I would suggest there are devastating results in spots not covered yet...

Ike's Storm Surge Arrives Early

2008-09-12T16:34:00.004-04:00

Click here to see the water charts for Galveston, TX. Water began flooding this parking lot and streets this morning. Landfall is expected after midnight- around High Tide.
track Ike in the Tropics Tab Above...

Ike Could Be Worse than Katrina

2008-09-12T04:55:00.004-04:00

The slight shift in the track over the past 12 hours has put the direct target on Galveston and Houston, Texas.
There is agreement among most of the models on this path, which actually puts this metropolitan area closer to the path of the eye wall, which is where the strongest winds are found.
As of 5am, the winds increased slightly to 105mph. More important is that the hurricane force winds extend 120mph from the center. The tropical storm force wind field extends 450 miles from end to end. A large storm that will effect a large area.
This is going to be bad! There is no way to sugar coat this, and I do not think the hype is too much. The famous 1900 hurricane that killed 8,000 people prompted the building of a 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. It has yet to be challenged by a Hurricane. This storm should build a 15 foot storm surge with waves 32Ft tall as it makes landfall around high tide. Add in over 12 inches of rain and tornadoes on top of the max winds, and I have a hard time accepting that this storm will spare this metropolitan area.

The NFL made the move last night to postpone the Football game between the Ravens and Houston Texans has been postponed until Monday night. Is this a good move? Of course the game should not take place on Sunday, but what about the conditions of Houston on Monday. The damage to the infrastructure, plus the displacement of most of the population will make any travel difficult. Even if Reliant Stadium does survive better than the Superdome, and they have generator power- what about the rest of the region. While I have a fantasy football player in this game, I don't think this was thought out properly. Perhaps the game should have been moved to New Orlean's Superdome, or even one of the University stadiums inland. What do you think?

It should be noted that the National Weather Service put out a statement yesterday saying "People in the path of this storm will face imminent death". That is the same statement put out 1 day before Katrina hit New Orleans. At that time the storm was a Category 5. This storm is still a Category (as of early Friday). Here is the rest of the statement from the NWS for Galveston and Houston areas:

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE OR REMOVE ANY LOOSE ITEMS SURROUNDING YOUR
PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE BLOWN AROUND BY TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TRIM TREES NEAR YOUR PROPERTY.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LIVINGSTON TO HEMPSTEAD COMMUNITIES BEGINNING
8 TO 10 PM FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
AN 16 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 80 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE SPREAD INLAND. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK
SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A Day of Silence, Questions about Ike

2008-09-11T05:02:00.007-04:00

There is a lot I would like to talk about today:
The bee colony in the wall of my bathroom...
The rain on the way...
Hurricane Ike...

I just don't feel right posting on this somber day. Too many personal things that had happened on that dreaded 7 years ago.

Life does go on, and we can not let terrorists break out spirit.

We will be bombarded with images and memorials. It will be painful for many of us, but please
DON'T FORGET!

There will be a lot of anxiety about our next disaster- this one natural and forecast. Here are the computer models from Wednesday Night for Hurricane Ike. As of this morning, it was a large storm. Hurricane force winds extended 115 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extended 230 miles away. The pressure indicated that the measured 100mph winds should be closer to 130mph+. It look like a contraction and speed increase is likely today. The track is scary. The latest trend has been to pull it farther up the Texas coast. The NHC path takes it just to the west of Galveston and Houston early (pre-dawn) Saturday morning. Football fans will be questioning what will happen to the Raven's vs. Texans

Turning Leaves, TRMM and Ike

2008-09-10T05:45:00.004-04:00

I am personally excited about the temperatures cooling down. My pool is still opened, but there is a point when the heat just sucks the energy out of you. I am there! This is why I love a four seasons climate. Especially around these parts, when it is different every year. Consider last year, the leaves were still on the trees past Halloween into Thanksgiving. This year, there are already turning. I saw a stretch in I-83 yesterday with brilliant yellow and even red. I will take a photo today and post it tomorrow. With the pictures, it's just words here....

So let's push past the chill on the way, and jump back to the tropics with Ike. Here is the TRMM Satellite just before it hit Cuba. That is the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. This was Sunday with winds of 132mph.
The rainfall analysis shown on this image was made with data from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) instruments . They are overlaid on an image that used TRMM's Visible and infrared (VIRS) data.

This is one of the tools used to help determine how much rainfall has occurred with a land falling storm. This image shows that there was potential for well over 1 foot of rain, that passed over the southern Bahamas, and Haiti which has been hit by Fay, Gustav and Hanna.

Here is the 7 day total up through yesterday. It might be hard to see here, but TRMM shows the general range of 4 to 14 inches of rain in Cuba and Haiti. This is important to follow as Ike is likely to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The current track continues on the southern path and aiming for Corpus Christie, TX Friday night and Saturday morning. You can continue to track with StormPulse in my tropics page...

Are you ready for Fall?

2008-09-09T06:31:00.004-04:00

Today's Cold Front has prompted this Flood Watch. These are the same areas that had over 2 inches of rain with Hanna. Many spots got well over 3 inches, and the soil is soggy. Not much room for any more rain to soak in, so any downpours could lead to flooding.
There does appear to be a wave of Low Pressure trying to form along the cold front. That may slow it down, and enhance the rain. The transition from this humid weather to some autumn chill should produce amounts close to 1 inch or more.

Early Autumn?
Labor Day and the State Fair have passed. The tropics are just way too active now. Oh, and there is that issue of the leaves turning early. That's right, for those of us that live north and west of Baltimore. Away from the urban heat island and warm Chesapeake Bay... the leaves began to turn at the end of August. In fact at my house, I had 2 trees already lose about 40% of their leaves. I can't blame the weather, because we had a good bit of rain most of the summer, and the heat was not that extreme. Some had speculated that it's a precursor to a hard winter, or even a result of the lowest sunspot activity in centuries (which will result in Global Cooling). Either way, it started to feel like fall, and that same old feeling will return this week.
Here is the 850mb map for Wednesday mid day. This translates to the following:
Wind direction: North East
AfternoonTemperatures: Low 70s
Overnight Temperatures: Near 50 (40s north and west)

The same High Pressure responsible for this chill has helped to push Hurricane Ike's track farther south. The long reach will likely keep that storm on a path for southern portion of the Gulf Coast. Se when you see rain in our forecast for the weekend, it's not Ike, but yet another storm in an active northern branch of early fall.

Hanna's Gift: Rain and Rainbows

2008-09-07T09:03:00.005-04:00

With the talk of the week come and gone (by the way, I think the forecast and track worked out pretty well), we did get some good things out of the storm.
This Doppler estimated Rainfall shows:
Yellow- Over 1.5 inches
Red - Over 3 inches
Purple- Over 6 inches west side of DC. Tony Pann informed me about numerous water rescues.
More rain fell north and west
Less rain fell around the beltway and the eastern shore...
After a wet spring and summer, August was about 2 inches below normal on rainfall. the 1.64" at BWI made up for some of that and keeps us 3.29" above normal on the year.

BEAUTY How about the rainbows... I did say plural... there was a double rainbow that formed after 7pm and was visible in most spots. Technically everyone sees a different rainbow anyway, I did not want to geek out today. This was most likely the brightest, and best looking natural rainbow I have ever seen. Glad I can a camera handy. Enjoy the pictures (which do not do the full double arch justice). I also have a YouTube video below....

Hanna Visible Satellite in Maryland

2008-09-06T16:00:00.003-04:00

Here is the satellite image form around 3pm, showing the center of Tropical Storm Hanna over the lower Chesapeake Bay. At this point, most of the rain was west of Baltimore, while much lighter amounts were closer to the storm center. My morning post is below....
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Hanna: Just the Basics

2008-09-06T08:03:00.004-04:00

First Some Weather Cams along the shore:
Ocean City, MD

Rehoboth, DE

Wildwood, NJ

It is going to be a long, busy day... Here are some of the graphics we are working on. The speed had picked up a little this morning, so the timing of the worst part of the storm may begin early to mid aftrernoon. Heavy rain has already developed as of 9am. I have noticed the upslope in the terrain to our north and west has enhanced the rainfall. There could be higher amounts to our west. You can track that in my TV Graphics or Radar tabs above on the main web site.
If I get a chance, I will post a little more later.

Hurricane Isabel Coverage

2008-09-05T19:12:00.003-04:00

While Hanna is about to roll in, and definitely not the same storm as Isabel, I thought I would at least dig up some of my old coverage and share it here. It's hard to believe that it has been 5 years. Hopefully your browser will allow the YouTube Player below. You should be able to scroll among 6 different videos by just placing your mouse on the screen. I will have more on Hanna to post on Saturday morning.

Hanna Hits Saturday

2008-09-05T06:32:00.009-04:00

I hate, and yet I love these mornings. There is so much to talk about, it all seems like a rush on TV. But that is the benefit of my blog and web site. That is how I can share everything. I am still pressed on time, but I wanted to share as much as possible as soon as possible.
The Track (as of this morning), has Hanna as a Tropical Storm and passing over Salisbury on Saturday evening. The wind field is large with this storm, so the area that will have 40mph winds or higher will be large.
I have included Baltimore in the zone with 40-60mph winds, at least with gusts. On the Bay and the Delmarva- the winds will be holding the full force of the storm, which will likely be steady at 45-65mph on Saturday night.

WATCHES (as of Friday morning)
As of this morning, a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Eastern Shore, Chesapeake Bay, and 'Coastal Areas' of Harford, Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the rest of us.
Basically, we all will get something. I also want to point out that tornadoes are possible. With this path, the main threat of that will be on the Delmarva. So what else, and better yet, when?
I will answer all of that below... but the path is most important. Considering the map above, the path into the Lower Eastern Shore will bring us primarily a northeast to north wind as it passes. This will affect for how the water piles up or drains around the Chesapeake. That wind direction will likely help to drain (not surge the water like Isabel) , yet push it up against the western bay shores... there will be flooding.
Regardless, water levels will be important. Here are some of the High Tides I was able to
gather for the shoreline areas. The worst part of the storm will be Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning. The Saltwater tides web link below can help you find many more spots and their tides...

Saltwater Tides Link

Models, Rainfall and Flooding

Here is the GFS Model. I have been following this one all week.
The overnight run had the center of Hanna just north of Ocean City at 8pm on Saturday. You will notice the yellow shading over Baltimore that indicated the heaviest rainfall just north and west of the center. Often times these storms will dump more our way than near the center as it interacts with higher terrain and other weather systems.

The Canadian Model also shows 8pm Saturday for the close approach of Hanna.
This position is a little farther south- or just over the southern Chesapeake Bay. If anything, I see the same path, just a slighter slower solution. The time frame here still has us with the worst between 6pm Saturday evening through midnight.

I was looking at the higher resolution NAM model and was concerned with an attempt to slow down or stall Hanna on top of us.
Here you can see the 8pm Saturday evening position near Raleigh/Durham, NC, then reaching us on 8am Sunday. That is a dramatic slow down, and seems to be the only model doing so.
While the cold front to our west is falling apart, the upper level winds will still have enough of a southwesterly push to keep Hanna moving at a brisk pace ranging from15-25mph. This may be using bad data, but I needed to mention it just in case it found something no one else is seeing.
Rainfall
Basically, using the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center maps, here is the forecast for rainfall:
There is a bulls eye (X) over northern New Jersey with 7.99 inches.
Baltimore: 5-6 inches
Westminster: 4-5 inches
Annapolis/Easton: 5-7 inches
Ocean City: less than 4 inches.

All impressive amounts, but should be taken with a grain of salt. There are so many things that can influence rain totals, mainly if and where rain bands set up. We could get a lot more in spots, or a lot less. Either way, the idea goes along with what I mentioned above. The heaviest rain will fall just north and west of the path of Hanna.

Just to recap my forecast:
This evening: Chance of thundershowers.
Tonight: Developing rain/thundershowers. Especially by morning.
Saturday morning: Rain and wind E 10-25mph
Saturday afternoon: Heavy rain, wind E to NE 25-45mph. Temperatures: Mid 70s
Saturday 6pm - Sunday 2am: Heavy rain, water level 1-3 feet higher on the west side of the bay. Wind ranging from 35-65mph Strongest winds on the Bay and Eastern Shore.
Sunday: Clearing, breezy early. Fine for the Raven's game in the afternoon. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 80-85F

Hanna Update: 6pm

2008-09-04T18:11:00.003-04:00

Flash Flood Watch and Tropical Storm Watch

This is just a quick update since I am saving my energy for a late night of football. A flood watch has been issued for most of us west of the bay in addition to a Tropical Storm Watch on the water. The NHC plot just updated what I saw at 11am.. models are pulling back a little to the west. That places the center of Hanna between Annapolis and Ocean City mid day or early afternoon Saturday. That also means an east wind for most of the event. While Storm Surge will be limited, the water on the bay may pile more on the western side and raise water levels an extra 1-3 feet in addition to waves. The wind forecast is for 40-60mph, including near Baltimore. Much more tomorrow morning... My full post on similar tracks from this morning is below.

Hanna's Track Shifts Slightly-THIS IS NOT ISABEL

2008-09-04T04:24:00.014-04:00

More on Hanna and recent similar storms is posted below. Also, a reminder that this blog is part of my full web site. If you do not see more images at the right here, then click the link above for the full web site.
First, I am thrilled that a lot more of you have taken interest in my blog, but I am amazed how may questions I have gotten about this storm and Isabel. I discussed this earlier in the week- just a few posts back... but I guess I should revisit it again.

THIS IS NOT THE SAME STORM AS ISABEL.

Isabel reached 150mph winds a few days before landfall-then weakened. The wave memory of that strength is what reached us. Hanna is still a Tropical Storm and only expected to be a minimal Hurricane.

Isabel tracked to our south and continued inland- pulling steady south east winds up the bay. Hanna should 'turn the corner', and pass off of the coast. It may clip Ocean City, and looks more like the paths of Floyd('99), and...Charley ('04).

I was an expert witness on a case regarding Isabel, and wrote up a 36 page report describing the unique nature of that storm. The 5 year drought, leading into record snow and very wet seasons. The result was water levels raining 2nd and 3rd all time in many spots- before the storm arrived. Then the track of Isabel itself was extremely rare. It passed north of Cape Hatteras, the point on the map that sticks out on the eastern seaboard. Most often, north of there a storm will encounter the mid latitude Westerlies and turn as a result. Isabel passed north of Cape Hatteras, which allowed that high wall of water- the Storm Surge, to pass unimpeded into the Chesapeake Bay. The track never wavered, and continued northwest up towards Toronto. Flooding was from the surge, not the rain. Check out the path and forecast plots here.

High Tide
Flooding in these storms often comes in two forms.

Down- Rain from the sky.
Up- Storm Surge upon landfall. This is the most destructive.

Despite my confidence and attempt to calm the fear of a repeat, people who live along the water will be watching the high tide and timing of the storm for surge flooding. Bowleys Quarters in Baltimore county seemed to get hit the hardest, I thought I would post their High Tides here. The mid day High Tide on Saturday would be the one of most concern. With the expected track and timing now... the following High Tide early Sunday morning should come with a northwest wind, blowing or draining water out the bay.
Tracking Hanna- Why it Shifted East.
Early this week, I was pumping the track from the National Hurricane Center directly over Baltimore. I tried to make it clear that the the range of time and error would likely bring it close, but not directly on that path. For two straight days, the models I look at were consistently plotting Baltimore. Then it began to show a shift to the south and east. Why?
Weather is all about 'teleconnections'. One storm can be impacted by one or a few others. Or even a ridge of High Pressure such as the one that steered Gustav, but gave us clear skies. As Hanna delayed it's development and turn north an extra day, it allowed the remains of Gustav and the Cold Front to our west to get a little closer to us. Carry this to Saturday, and the steering winds are expected to make Hanna turn north then north east before reaching us.
This GFS plot, compared to the last few days, does show a path over Ocean City on Saturday afternoon. That would sift out winds to more of a Northeast to north direction when the storm gets close. The water level in the bay may run high, but also could drop as this happens as the direction of the wind will help 'push' or 'drain' more water out. This could be counteracted by heavy rain, but definitely different than Isabel. Below are the overnight models and National Hurricane Plot for comparison to the last few days in my previous posts. Beyond that is a comparison to recent storms with the same path- Floyd and Charley.
Computer Models- Spaghetti Plot

Two Storms: Similar Paths, Different Outcomes

While working on a comparison to recent storms with similar tracks, I found two with very different results for Maryland. For starters, it is similar to Floyd, but that was a much stronger storm. At one point, Floyd was on the verge of reaching Category 5 status, and keep pushing from initial threats in central Florida to North Carolina. It was a Tropical Storm when it reach Maryland and passed nearly on top of Ocean City. It was responsible for over 6 inches of rain in Baltimore, 11-13 inches of rain in Annapolis and nearly 20 inches in parts of the Eastern Shore. Ironically, Ocean City had less than 2 inches of rain.Perhaps you remember the images of the town of North East in Cecil County, or Port Deposit at the point where the Susquehanna meets the Chesapeake.

More recently, Hurricane Charley. That came on shore in Florida's Gulf Coast as a Category4, weakened as it crossed into the Atlantic, then hit North Carolina and crossed over Ocean City in a diminished form. By that time, although a similar path to Floyd- no rain fell on the west side of the bay. Quite a contrast.

Hanna Hype, Track To The Right

2008-09-03T05:02:00.006-04:00

I hate to skip past our local weather- especially with this late season heat surge, but at least it reminds many that it is still summer, and we have a lot of energy in the atmosphere just waiting to be released.
Here is the GFS model for Saturday morning. It has the center of Hanna just a little closer to the coast, but still very close. Do you remember my right side bias with tropical systems? I have been able to point it out with most storms whit season, except Gustav. Many of these tropical systems have ended up traveling on the right side of that forecast cone. Well, below are the latest tracks for Hanna. You can see a shift to the right side of the track- or to the east. Not much, but still worth noting. While I have pumped up the path crossing Baltimore for the past 2 days, I would have been surprised if that worked out just like that, but I still expect wind and rain Friday night into Saturday. We have to consider a few things:
1. Hanna is just starting to turn this morning. When it does, and the exact angle of acceleration will help determine landfall and beyond.
2. Wind Sheer is relaxing. Hanna has taken a major hit with upper level winds recently, but that relaxes today and allows it to regenerate over warm water.
3. North Atlantic Storm. This Low east of New England actually produced a band of rain in MA that dove south through Long Island. It is producing a band of clouds just to our east this morning. This does need to get out of the way, but could take it's time and deflect Hanna
4. Cold Front from the Great Lakes should help accelerate Hanna and push it out of here in a hurry. These fronts often get here later than expected, and will also determine how Hanna gets turned and spun through the Mid Atlantic. The longer Hanna takes to get here, the closer that front gets, and a better chance to keep Hanna farther east. However, the interaction with the cold front will produce another band of heavy rain and severe storms away from the storm center.

While the Atlantic is now filled with 3 Tropical Storms, let's focus on Hanna maps below. You'll Notice that the National Hurricane Center keeps Hanna as a Tropical Storm when passing us on Saturday.

Hurricane Hanna Heading Here! Tropics Bubbling Up!

2008-09-02T06:10:00.006-04:00

Hanna has been upgraded to Hurricane status overnight.
This is the GFM model I mentioned yesterday, still on target with a direct hit from Hanna on Saturday. While the storm be in a diminished form, much like Gustav is today... it will still pose a threat for flooding rain, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes.
While there is a lot of anxiety in this region since Isabel, this will not be the same storm. For starters, it's not nearly as strong, nor projected to get much stronger.
Secondly, the track takes it into South Carolina and brings it up from a longer trip over land. The wind flow may provide some surge of water up the Chesapeake, but both South and North Carolina will take the main hit with water. Check out the tracks below.

First the Spaghetti Plot here shows more models than yesterday bringing this into Maryland. The bulk do have it to our west, but these hurricane models don't handle mid latitude winds that well. The GFS (seen above, and here in red line) does have it much closer to Baltimore.
The National Hurricane Center Forecast Cone considers all models, and perhaps the bias I have mentioned all summer. There is a trend of these storms to ride to the right side of the forecast track... although Gustav did buck the trend. The range of possibilities is wide on Saturday, but below you can see the NHC forecast taking Hanna here Saturday!
As Gustave winds down to Tropical Depression status this morning, it still may dump anywhere from 6 to 20 inches of rain in the deep south. Yet Look at all the activity in the Atlantic below. I think the popcorn might be ready in the microwave.... Ike's track takes it into the Bahamas in TEN may be named Josephine by the end of today.

Summer Finale. Gustav on the Gulf. Hanna Could Hit Us

2008-09-01T05:05:00.006-04:00

Labor Day is often viewed as the end of summer. At least since it marks the end of the State Fair, and kids are back in school. Heck, even the leaves have started to turn- but I will have to save that discussion until this tropical week ends...
I heard a story on the radio early this morning on my way to work... The New York area beaches have had a dramatic drop in visitors this summer. The reporter mentioned the lack of 90 degree days as the reason...and I think we have had a similar set up down here. Does it seem like we have not had much of a summer? Here you can see that the number of 90F degree days have dropped off each month this summer. June- 9 days, July- 8 days, August- only 4 days.

Hurricane GUSTAV
Just a watching game now. You can track along on the Tropics tab above (main web site). My only question, as a broadcast journalist- all the coverage you will see on TV today will be from reporters and cameras in locations that were evacuated. How safe can they be?

Tropical Storm Hanna
Here is the overnight (spaghetti) 6 model plot. As you can see, there are a quite a few solutions, all of which take this on shore. The red line is the GFS, which brings it over Baltimore- after trekking through North Carolina and losing some strength. At the forward speed, this model does have it as a minimal Tropical Storm when reaching us. Below is the GFS Model for Friday night. You can see the center of the storm just to our south, and heading our way. This model is important since it is one of the primary models we use for our mid to long range weather, and can take over from the Tropical Models by adding in land data those don't incorperate. This is the second day I have seen this scenario, so it is worth watching for consistency. This is just one of many possibilities. As of now, we have at least 5 days to prepare...

Models Zero Gustav in on Louisiana

2008-08-31T07:19:00.007-04:00

I said last week that I would be amazed if this storm worked out with precision on the LA coastline. In fact, I continued to call for the model bias to far west. Well, I was wrong, here this morning you can see the model agreement slamming just west of New Orleans. This reminds me of the super-storm of '93, when the MRF model was put on the scene with a near perfect forecast 120 hrs (5 Days) out. Sometimes the really big ones don't have to deal with being impacted by other systems to screw things up.
This path would keep the storm surge on the worst case scenario. Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River will take a steady flow from the east and pile up more water than Katrina just based on track alone.

Fluctuation in Strength

Here is the Potential Heat Map showing the warm pool loop north of Cuba, while the depth of the warm water and the temperatures are not as supportive closer to the coast. This is why Katrina weakened just before landfall, and Gustav should do the same. So while it may get back to Cat 4 or maybe just barely a 5, it should break down a little as it reaches land late tomorrow. The bad news is that the 'wave memory' will have a surge resembling the strong version of the storm. This is mush like Isabel did for us. It peaked out at 150mph winds 3-4 days before making landfall, but was beat down to a Category 1/2, with much stronger surge than anyone truly expected up the bay. Consider the forward speed as well, acting like a boat pushing a wake. As of this morning, it was swiftly moving at 16mph, and may speed up. That shortens the time until landfall, and it's chance to weaken much. It also itself increases the wave pressure in front of the storm. so a Category 3 storm moving at 15-20mph may produce a higher surge than a Category 3 moving at 5 mph. In fact you might equate the surge to that of a Category 5- pushing the limits of 25-35 feet of water, similar to what Katrina did to Biloxi, MS.

Tropical Storm Hanna is like the GOP convention. It's still there, but not getting the press coverage it should. We will have to watch this storm, as it may now shift north from the Bahamas to the east coast.
Here is the GFS model showing it at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay next Saturday. Wouldn't that just stink! I'm supposed to host a Fantasy Football League Party that day!
This is just one of the many potentials, and still 1 week away.
It's good TV, but a horrible set up for too many people. Good luck and G-D speed to the people on the coast.

Gustav Gearing Up, Getting Ready For The Gulf

2008-08-30T15:44:00.000-04:00

I am out of town today, but wanted to post the latest model track. This is courtesy of Hamweather. The models have a consensus up until Monday, and then a few split off away from Louisiana. This idea here is worse for New Orleans since it would pass to it's west and bring in the stronger surge in from the East. The bright side us that it will peak out and then weaken on it's way towards land with cooler water and some wind shear. Enjoy The Weather Channel's coverage. I will try to post more in the morning.

Justin Berk AMS CBM Www.justinweathertalk.com Sent from my iPhone

Gustav Hype and Heat Potential, Labor Day Looking Up

2008-08-29T08:24:00.005-04:00

Since this is the last day of our noon show, I am taking it easy this morning. There has already be so much hype over Gustav- especially on this anniversary of Katrina- that it may actually scare the storm away!

Here is a map of the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. It measures more than just water surface temperature, but the depth of that warm water as well. When big waves churn up the water, having that heat source go deep is crucial. You can see that there is a source of heat energy into the Gulf, but that drops off closer to land on the coastline. That may be important, since like Katrina- Gustav could weaken on it's way to landfall. The jury is still out on the track considering the influence of approaching High Pressure into the Central Plains of the US. You can still track along with Stormpulse on my Tropics Page in the Seasonal Tab on the main web site.
Also-Check out the TV Graphics which highlight the improved weather for Labor Day. It looks like we will be close to 90F by the middle of next week. Summer is not done yet, but I will be in the Poconos this weekend to see some of the leaves already turning.