Rolling In Off The Ocean on a Storm With No Name

A no name storm yesterday leads to recently named storm this weekend. More about my paraphrasing lyrics and soon to be 'Hurricane' Kyle below...

I do want to start with this satellite image of our no name Non Tropical- Tropical Storm. The convection, or developing storms around the center of circulation appeared to develop an eye off shore. This storm was responsible for coastal flooding and wave heights over 15 feet. My newly beloved Outer Banks of North Carolina took a hit on Nags Head with flooding on Virginia Dare Trail and Croatan Highway. But just like many tropical systems interacting the east coast, the rain and wind spread out on the north side. That is due to the onshore flow. But was some dry air wraps in off of the land, I highlighted a dry slot in yellow. that has caused the heavy rain band to split to the north s the center of circulation continued to push westward into the North/South Carolina border.
This dry slot can bust a rain forecast for some while others verify. Yesterday's rain ranged from Baltimore: 0.28"
Eastern Shore's American Corner 1.63"
Ocean City: 2.00" (Doppler Radar Estimated)
The radar image from Thursday evening posted here shows the onshore flow and the broken bands of rain. That distinct eye like circulation made landfall between Myrle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC. The afternoon will generate more rain, but it's a matter of watching where they develop to determine where it goes.

While heavy rain hit the Eastern Shore and beaches that resulted in 1- 3 inches yesterday, the banding has split the rain into pieces. The models I posted yesterday, and the updates since still show the heaviest rain near the center of the storm to our south, and the tropical feed off of the Atlantic into metro New York to our north.

As I mentioned yesterday, the combination of this storm and strong High Pressure east of Maine have funneled steady and sturdy winds well north of the storm. Here are the strongest winds from Thursday's reported on our Storm Center Weathernet:
Delaware:
Fenwick: 52 mph
Lewes, The University of DE : 50 mph
Rehoboth, Beach Plaza Hotel: 57 mph

Maryland:
Ocean City Chamber of Commerce: 56 mph

US Drought Monitor Updated September 23rd...

"After nine days I let the horse run free
cause the desert had turned to sea
There were plants and birds and rocks and things
There was sand and hills and rings"
OK the classic song from America is a stretch, but I could not get it out of my head. Instead of nine days, it's nine months into the year to bring some relief to the drought in the southeast mountains and coastal North Carolina.



Here is the active link to the Eastern Satellite and Radar for you to compare what areas in need are getting hit with rain.

The second storm I mentioned is yesterday, that will hit New England is now Tropical Storm Kyle. This circulation around our storm will steer this quickly north. It should stay well offshore, but reach Hurricane status before clipping Cape Cod.




Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast.

I have to leave it at this point. I have a busy slate today, but I will try to post more on the rest of this storm and our weekend later today.

More Rain. More April Snow. What it Means...

The rain we have today is part of a slow moving storm riding up the Appalachian Mountains. It's actually a good thing, since we are 1.71 inches below normal for the year.
As for that thunderstorm on Friday night, it pounded places north of the beltway to PA. BWI did get about .39". Sunday's rain however was not that impressive. Since it was mostly drizzle, and light showers- only .10" was recorded. We are pulling out of a winter drought, so consider this as catch up. Model Guidance has us with over 1 inch today. Localized thunderstorms can double that amount and lead to some ponding or flooding on roads this afternoon. I understand that some of you are not happy with the new view of our Doppler Radar since the coloring is set highlight only the heaviest rain. That can be see on my TV Graphics Radars and Cams Page (above). I made a new Storm Page that shows the old coloring of the NWS radar along with Warnings and Lightning Tracker. See the tabs above on the Full Web Site.
April Snow Anyone?
This is just a sample of the Midwest snow pack. Parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas have 1-2 feet of snow on the ground. This is part of a very cold upper level Low that can bring snow showers to Chicago later today. That's nothing compared to what Anchorage, AK had over the weekend. They have had 109 inches of snow for the season, which is 40 inches above normal. Below is a video clip showing the 2 feet of snow that had. Listen to the guy- and it's something a lot of the northern folk are thinking. I had nothing to do with it....

Don't Get Excited Yet! Spring and Drought Retreat!

Oh, 73F was so nice yesterday- 10 degrees above normal, and pretty close to my forecast of 70F. In fact it almost felt hot on my afternoon run. My body is just not use to running in anything above 60F yet. This morning was a bust, as I thought we would escape the fog. Oh no! It formed just around sunrise, and stuck around into the morning ride. I still have high hopes of another 70 degree day, thanks to the storm out west and a push of warm southerly winds. Here is the 850mb map (around 5,000 ft aloft and a good indication of what our surface air temperatures will be). Just looking at the color coding you can see yellow and orange with the warm air, and the blues wrapping around the monster storm, where up to a foot of snow will fall today.
There is a dramatic change on the way- so spring will take a little break. Tony Pann sent and email about potential snow flakes on Sunday. Well- that got my attention, and yours a well. Here is Sunday morning's 850 map. The kink in the lines (isoheights) show an upper level trough- which will bring back the late winter chill. Some upper level support will provide clouds and mountain flurries, but I can't get too excited yet. It's very hard for us to have snow showers in April as the boundary layer and surface temperatures will be too warm (at least in the 40s). If anything, this is when elevation comes into play. So any chance of flurries or a snow shower would be above 1000 feet. That is up near or north of the PA line or west of Frederick. Regardless, it will get much colder, so yesterday was just a tease.

Recently I discussed the drought situation, and mentioned the record snowfall out west. That will result in a benefit to the Colorado watershed when it melts into the summer. This is an area that has had explosive population growth and desert drought to deplete the water supply. It's a situation many have seen beyond recovery, yet this winter has changed that. I encourage you to pick up a Wall Street Journal today for an article on this. It is not available to the general public online- but click here for some maps from The Wall Street Journal .
that explain a little bit.

Making Up for Lost Time

Despite the little warm up today and tomorrow, November temps are now just normal for Baltimore. The rain however, is -1.21" for the month, and -7.26" for the year. No doubt, we're still in a drought. But today's rain should help a little. This map here is the Canadian model precipitation forecast for 12hrs ending this evening. The yellow and orange in the mountains highlights over 1 inch (legend is in mm). While this type of system will often weaken after crossing the mountains, we should still get close to 1 inch. This cold front will also be responsible for some thunderstorms overnight.
Even better news is for Atlanta. Their reservoirs have made headlines with the potential of going dry next month. Their fortune as changed. Last week, a storm brought over 2 inches of rain. This one could do the same. A little bit a time. To put it all in perspective... Atlanta is still officially -19.08 inches below normal for the year. That is nearly 1/2 of what they should have had by now.
Beyond this storm, the colder air will make a return gradually. A taste on Wednesday, then we're back into the 40s with the next surge this weekend.

Weathertalk readers: The new web site debut is just days away....