A Delay for a Day... Then Bring On The Heat!

Wednesday Storm Update:
NOT A TORNADO in Severna Park- Declared Microburst.
CONFIRMED TORNADO in Chesapeake Beach.

For more on the NWS storm report- click here.

The old boundary is fading away, but there is a hint of it that has slipped to our south- allowing a cooler easterly flow. We had that kick in during the afternoon.
These maps are from Thursday evening. They show the contrast of the cooler easterly wind vs. the heat lingering just to our south. That is a 20 degree spread!

Forecasting for Friday is going to be tough since we can range from the upper 70s to near 90F. Still the big story will be the weekend, so let's jump right to that.Here is my forecast for the weekend.- thanks to Emily Gracey for the graphic.... Add in high humidity and this being the first shot of the season, and Excessive Heat Warnings may be posted. Start saving up- your BGE bill is about to go up!

What's The Bigger Story?

Note: BWI had .67" of rain yesterday. We are 1.19" away from the record for wettest May.

Yesterday's high temperature in Phoenix was 108F, setting a record. Baltimore's official high was 57F. That was not a record, but farther away from normal. Looking at the map, I've highlighted that Phoenix was 12 degrees above normal, but Baltimore was 18 degrees below normal. Considering today's media climate, the record high gets the headlines. I think our cool temperatures deserve it.

What do you think?


Oh, there were damaging storms from Atlanta to Charlotte, but it is severe weather season after all- that's par for the course.
a total of 329 severe weather reports yesterday. Most wind and hail, but there were 4 tornadoes.

Today will be a little more tame, but a chilly north west wind gusting to 25 mph, and the lingering chance of showers may not seem that much better.




As we approach Memorial Day, the patter looks like it's about to change. The transition to from trough to ridge is already underway- but it will be a slow process. As Canadian High Pressure builds in with that shower threat today- and perhaps tomorrow just to our north- it will get better. All it will take is a little sun to get us back to near normal. That normal is 75F. When you consider the average of cool wet days like yesterday, and pre-summer heat like the 80s and 90s like last year at this time... well 75F is where we end up. Getting a day of full sun, should actually boost us above normal, and that is what I expect this weekend.
Here is the GFS map for Sunday morning. Dry weather will return this weekend, but Sunday's shift is the wind from a northerly to west or southerly flow will be our turn of the corner. That should get us back to the low 80s, and by a chilly pool on Memorial Monday.

It's Time To Complain- We're Going To Have More Rain

We already had 3 individual record rainfall days in the past week. Here is an updated map of the rainfall from the past two storms. I do not like to sensationalize the weather. Sure I love a good snow, almost look for it all winter... but I know the harm that is done when it is hyped too much. You as the public get frustrated and angry when the weather does not reach your expectations. That has been my philosophy with the Climate Debate, my forecasting on TV, and this blog. But here we go with more rain on the way.


This active storm track continues to reinforce itself. Call it atmospheric memory. We get locked into a pattern, and that is what we are in now. A pattern thanks to outside forces such as La Nina and the North Atlantic Oscillation (explained in previous posts). That is one of the reasons that Mother's Day forecast worked out as I tracked it from 6 days out. So here again is the Canadian Model outlook for Friday morning. I do suspect that this is a little fast, and the heavy rain will be in the afternoon. The gist is the Low and the position. Again just to our south in Virginia. That keeps us on the colder northern fringe, and more severe weather possible from VA Beach into the Carolinas.
For us- it's the potential for over 1 inch of rain that will build on the already swollen streams and saturated soil. Tomorrow I will post the record rain to see if we will be close, but it will make a dent in the monthly total. We have a good shot at that all time wettest May with half of the month and less than 3 inches to go. Another storm on this track is possible by Tuesday or Wednesday. If it's going to do it- we might as well have something to show for it.

Chill Out!

No Snow= No Shave: Day 6

I made this graphic for Good Morning Maryland in honor of Primary season. Yup, we got the record, and we are proud to say we called it from the Storm Center. If you look back at last week, I was the first person to point out our the potential of 60s right here in this blog- a shock to many considering the hard freeze we were in. so we ended up a little higher. We are in a pattern of an amplified trough and ridge. While we are on the warm side, I have confidence we get back to the deep freeze soon. Today is just a small step in that direction.

If you look at yesterday's posting, I pointed out the record we would break- one set 78 years ago. I have made it my purpose here to point out scientific data and facts- and not scare anyone. Unfortunately that is what we are bombarded with daily on TV, newspapers, etc. For some reason, I was attacked by a reader for having a political agenda. Regardless, read that posting and there is nothing to warrant the comment I got from 'Anonymous'. Anyone like me who shows that the current variety of weather has happened before, is subject to this stuff. I am open to any intelligent debate, but don't assume any motive for my scientific points. My environmental conscience might surprise you. If you want to play fair, then show yourself. If you remain anonymous- then you are a coward. Besides, to take every warm day and claim Armageddon is not science. Chill out! Oh, I'm sorry, you'll take that the wrong way... so Lighten up!
Last week, it was the deep freeze, and we could very well be there again, soon. This article in the Boston Globe from last week went there. We may have not had snow for a month, but much of the nation has. Record snow and cold in many spots. Last year was expected to be the warmest on record, but the last 6 months changed that. This is not politics, just observations. I know some of you label me a bad person for sharing this information, but I am not. I am a snow lover, and have confidence that more it is not a lost cause. Please check out my new SNOW PAGE (on web site tabs up top). Let me know what you think.
While I have studied and taught climate change- I will leave the specifics to the experts. Please take a few minutes and watch this video below. John Stossel interviewed climate experts who, well they'll tell you their research and has happened to them. Some hints at a coastal storm with snow for us next week. I'll tackle that tomorrow.

What a Turkey!

For my regular WeatherTalk blog readers who have hopped over here, you may have already guessed what I am talking about today. For the rest, it's definitely not yesterday's meal of choice. This actually goes back to Wednesday, when a guy at my gym started talking about how warm it was, and how he remembered riding his bike in the snow in October. I'll get back to that later, but here is what prompted it: Wednesday was warm. We hit 73F. The record high in Baltimore was 79F in 1900. What was the heat blamed on then.? Yesterday- Thanksgiving, and the high was 74F- still not a record. That was 76F. Although we were close, it was warmer when that was set in 1940! Again, warmer a long time ago and not used a fodder for a theory. Yup we are in warmer times, and humans have polluted the planet. But there are much greater forces at work in this chaotic system we call weather and climate. Still looking at the stats shows that. Now back to my new friend at the gym. He's 52, so that would date back over 40 years - in the 1960's. We I checked the records, and there is only a handful of days with snow for October in Baltimore. There were two days with just a trace - in 1952. Likely it was on the grass and not enough to pedal through on the streets.
Regardless, this guy was not my concern, since we had a reasonable chat about the actual cycles of warm and cold years. I noted that the 1930s and 1940s still hold the majority of heat records around here, while the mid 1940s- 1960s turned quite cold for all of us (globally). A second guy pop his head around the corner and made some snide remark- but as soon as I gave him some hard stats he walked away. Only minutes later he would strike back- mainly with his memory and his parent's memories of colder times. When I offered my email and a proper exchange of information, he responded with, " I don't need to see YOUR science to know the truth". It's that kind of ignorance that befits the label - TURKEY! No need to finish the entire exchange here, but he did say that he is worried for his children. Well, I have a 2 year old son. I'm more worried that his classmates will get bad information in school. My old Climate Page on WeatherTalk has more information. Below is a recent report from John Stossel on 20/20 showing this: