Snowfall Records- 1900s and 1910s

Since this is Christmas Eve I should note the most snow on Christmas Eve Day was 8.4" in 1966. When I get to the '60s in you will see a distinct jump in the snowfall. However, there is a small chance of some snow flurries for us Christmas Day. Here is the NAM 500mb map for Christmas Day. The vort maxes are highlighted with an X. These are areas of upper level support of clouds and showers - even when void of surface features. The colored area over MD is what separates us from High Pressure moving in. It is left over energy wrapped around the recent storm. If we have NW winds continue, then instability clouds will form to our west, and perhaps some flurries. Its not much, but it is something.

How often have you heard, "It snowed a lot more when I was a kid" or "My parents had to walk to school in 20 inches of snow. Uphill. Both Ways"?
This is the beginning of my look at snowfall in Baltimore, by season and decade. You will see the first two decades of the 1900s. While there are some outstanding years both high and low in snowfall, the average for each decade nearly matches the 124 year average:

Severe Weather, Christmas Outlook

Rain, Thunderstorms, and strong winds. Another round of rough weather, unbecoming of winter. Well, actually it is.. except the storm track is well to our west, so we get the warm side . You can follow along on the TV Graphics- Radars and Stuff Page. Basically, we have a fog advisory, wind advisory, bay coastal flood watch, oh and the chance of thunderstorms. I am on nights this week, starting tonight. So I will update graphics this evening.
SNOW: Yesterday I began working on compiling some snow data for Baltimore. Rather than overload the circuits on this topic, I am going to do a series this week on Baltimore Snowfall by the decades. While many people say, "It used to snow a lot more", you might be surprised by some of the data. Since it is a holiday week, that will be my main focus in this weeks posts.

Our hopes for a White Christmas

While it will likely remain mild after this storm passes, there is still a shortwave that could produce showers on Christmas- despite your Weather Channel forecast not showing it. I continue to put a small chance for Tuesday/ More tomorrow. On average, we have about a 20% chance of a snow on the ground in Baltimore for Christmas. That's about 1 in every 5 years.

Warm Wet Weekend. Christmas Snow?

This morning's national radar seen here (3am to 5am) is a little bit of job security. No, I will never claim perfection-nor should any forecaster. Yet I did beat the computers on this one. Yesterday I mentioned the prospect of this southern storm being a little closer to us, and worth mentioning. This morning, while the surface low was chugging through GA and SC, the shield of rain was on our doorstep. While it was just patchy drizzle and flurries here, it helped to moisten up the atmosphere and set the stage for more today. Combine the east wind, and more drizzle and fog will form throughout the day, in fact into the weekend. Not 100% on my end, but I did mention the chance yesterday, while there was no support from NWS or the mid range models.

As for this weekend, I am sticking with the Canadian here, which show a chance of getting over 1 inch of rain. Here you can see the 500mb level (on the right) energy I marked with an X. That is the support for a second area of low pressure to form along the front to enhance the rain. That's a good soaker on a holiday weekend! The push of warm air will continue all day Sunday, so my forecast of 54F may actually occur at night.

CHRISTMAS SNOW?
Here again is the Canadian 500mb (roughly 18,000Ft) map. I've highlighted the troughs with an X to show the energy that will keep us active for the end of 2007. The one over Maryland is the support for flurries or light snow. It looked a little more yesterday on the surface prog maps, but there still is hope for the flakes. The system in New Mexico will reach us with rain or snow by next Friday. The Pacific NW trough will likely affect us after that, but the traditional La Nina pattern with storms riding the Great Lakes and giving us rain, is likely to continue for the next 2-3 weeks.

Split Decision

Today, a normal day for late December. This is essentially the shortest day of the year, well daylight for those who want to get technical. The Winter Solstice is over the weekend, but the change in daylight from today to Saturday is only a difference of 7 seconds. So today being the sunny one, enjoy it!
We have cold air (35F-40F) in here for tomorrow, but that will also push this current system to our south. That gives us the clouds, but no snow. The winds around the Canadian High Pressure will be from the northeast. That could add some moisture for an evening snow shower or freezing drizzle in spots..but it does not look like a big deal now. Not much model support, but I have been watching the radar all morning, showing a hint at the precipitation shifting a little farther north. It may be worth watching on our southern fringe.

The weekend storm, which is now in the Rockies, will take a track into the Great Lakes. There is our split. South and west, we keep missing our mark. That will certainly draw in warmer air and bring us plain old rain. Two questions arise, how much rain, and how warm. The GFS model I followed last week, is bringing a front in a weakened for Sunday Evening, while my trusty Canadian model is much more wet. For the purpose of impact, I am showing that Canadian here. An inch of rain would help our drought, and could be the cast, if this model verifies a wave of Low Pressure riding up the front. Behind that, I see an upper level disturbance with the cold air on Christmas day. This may provide some holiday flurries.

Thanksgiving-Warm Turkey, Wet Dessert

Welcome to the Original Weathertalk Blog readers. Thanks for hoping over. This will be a temporary home of the blog, while I am building the new website. Below you will see a poll asking for what you would like to see. I have some neat things planned, but would like your input as well.

Here is the Thanksgiving map as I see it. The cold front will wait until late, so your company may stay longer. That snow in Michigan may piled up to 6 inches north of Detroit...but no chance of it getting here. As for next week's storm... if we are lucky, it will hold off until Monday. Yet early next week will be wet and chilly again. I was hoping to see a pattern shift with a digging trough and cold air reaching us by Wednesday. However the early week storm may steal the energy.
It's a holiday! So I will post again on Friday with a look at some of the models. Enjoy the bird