Snow North, Foliage From Space

It snowed! It really snowed! Well up north in NY State.... but it did what it was suppose to. Here is the Satellite/Radar image from 5:30 this morning- along with my analysis. Strong wind wrapping into a developing Low Pressure off of the New England Coast and pulled cold air south, and helped produce snow showers off of Lakes Erie and Ontario. As I showed yesterday, the upper level support may carry some of these clouds far enough south to cover northern Maryland, but the flakes will not make it here. The same wind off of the lakes that gets enhanced while moving up higher terrain, dries out moving down the mountains as it heads here. Only under special conditions can we get some of that our way.
It may not be that far off. After this weekend's storm, an impulse of energy combined with a surge of colder air will reach us on Monday. Below you can see the surface and 500mb maps for Monday.
On the Left is the Surface map showing a small but potent Low Pressure developing off of the coast, and the pink shading showing the area where showers are likely. This image also shows the potential freezing line (5400m thickness from 100mb to 500mb) which I highlighted in white. That is far enough south to support at least snow flakes at cloud level.



Here is the upper level 500mb map for the same time frame. This shows a vigorous upper level feature or vort max, which is often what I use to sniff out snow showers days ahead. This is not a big storm, but it is following the track just to our south, that is most promising is you want some flakes. It might be a bit premature to mention this on TV, but I will lean in this direction


This is the latest image from MODIS on NASA's Tera Satellite. It was taken over a week ago on October 12th, but it does show the areas of near and past peak very well. They look reddish/brown and dominate the mountains up to our north.
It will be interesting to see the next image from our region, as well head into peak color in the next week or two. Below is the latest local update from the Foliage Network for the Mid Atlantic and South East.

Defining Fall

Quiet and Cold is the best way to describe this morning. The coldest spot was York, Pa at 33F, but Towson dipped to 36F (at least off the hill in valley by Riderwood ES).
I give it about a week until we have some truly good fall color in the leaves. Right now it's just a little spotty. So here is a snapshot from the great state of Maine. As you view this, consider, what is your definition of fall. I got an email from a loyal viewer this morning with his take:

Gotta laugh: You describe how you know it's fall by the leaves changing. I describe fall by the wife (and mother in law who lives with us) by them telling me it's time to take out the screens and put in the storm windows. Geez--I hate that job! LOL
Terry in Bell Air.

Thanks for sharing...

First Foliage Report

What are you doing this weekend?
The first few days of October have provided increasing leaf reports just to our north. While I have noticed some color in the trees nearby, just a short drive to the north will make all the difference. If you are trying to avoid the crowds of the Fells Point Festival, Michael Phelps Parade (here in Towson), or the Raven's game on Sunday... just take about a 2-3 hour drive into Pennsylvania. There you will find the leaves entering the 3 week period of 'near peak' conditions. While low to moderate color is the official report, the color is fresh and expanding daily. These chilly mornings are helping the transition... and the 'high color' should be more widespread in the next two weeks. At that point we always risk the threat of any storm taking down the leaves and missing out. If not this weekend, then just wait another 2 weeks until we have some good leaf color within our state borders. The typical leaf peeping season for Maryland ranges from mid October near the PA line and western mountains, late October inside the beltway, and as late as early November for areas near the Bay and the Eastern Shore.