La Nina Update

On schedule, today's weak system is passing to our north. The outlook for our next storm is to pass to our south off of the South Carolina coastline on Friday. You can see my outlook on my TV Graphics page (tab above-main web site). Unfortunately for snow lovers the next big storm will be on Sunday- again passing to our west keeping us on the warm side. I'll have more tomorrow.

This winter weather pattern was expected to be governed by La Nina. That is the sister part of El Nino Pacific and water near South America have cooled down to about 2C below normal. This heat is the energy source for the storm track, and net result - the natural warming and cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The animations here show the past month of ocean temperatures, and anomalies (compared to normal), with the Pacific in the center. Clearly a moderate La Nina with the tropical easterlies pushing the warm water to Southeast Asia with temps near or slightly above normal. While the equatorial jetstream for North America. The expectation is on track and you can see the Winter Outlooks through the link at the right. But that is only part of the story. While Pacific storms will crash into the Western US over the next 7-10 days, that would often bring a mild winter for the eastern half of the nation. We can thank the build up of snow in the heartland and central Canada for battling that and keeping us near normal as this happened. The source of our cold- the Polar Vortex is sliding over the pole to Eurasia, but the North Atlantic Oscillation does show modest negative (cold numbers). I will show that tomorrow, but no clear indication with opposing forces over the next few weeks. Just an average end to December.. but storm track currently does not favor much snow for us.
US and Canada Snowpack:

Back To Normal...

You know that feeling- after the holidays? The foods been eaten, the family is gone, oh and the presents have been opened... and then there is the lull back of normal. It's like that box was not a Wii, but a dozen pairs of socks. So, there is no snow on the ground to look at, and the results of my latest poll show the disappointment, but expected average of a low B with my last forecast. OK, so it's back to work! Our weather has undergone some drama with the chill and especially the wind. I was just going through some of the reports from the weekend and saw the peak wind at Anne Arundel Community College in Glen Burnie hit 63mph on Sunday. Now with calm winds, and a chilly morning, it's just waiting for the temps to rebound. Last year we set our record high on this date with 72F. This afternoon we will just barely get back into the 40s. You can see the Almanac on the TV Weather Graphics page.
If you click over the Radars and Stuff page, you'll see general pattern is passing to our north. This may provide some clouds tomorrow. The following system might just miss us to south. The models have been in and out on this. Here is the Canadian (my personal favorite), showing the southern branch storm. This is not what you might think. No chance of this turning up the coast- just shooting out to sea. However, the chance of us getting clipped on the northern fringe with flurries or light snow. I should note that this is one of the more aggressive models, while most are keeping us dry. I just want to keep the hope alive for many of you who are searching for something. It also gives me something to talk about. beyond this, the weekend storm looks like another Great Lakes Track. that would be a rainmaker for us, but still 6 days out.
TOMORROW: Current La Nina Animations

Day Off

I have today off, so if you notice some TV graphics on the web site have not been updated, that is why. You can continue to rate my forecast with the poll at the right. As of 10am, the average seems to fall in my own range of "low B". There is a hint that we may have another shot of snow or ice at the end of the week. I will dive into that tomorrow, and try even harder to hit it.

Report Card: A Whole Lot of Nothing?

Here is the verified surface weather map for Sunday morning. The same time frame I was using with the GFS model all week. Overall, I think it did a good job with positioning. The major problem was the delay in the initial precipitation. Since it began for most of us between 7pm-9pm, the atmosphere had a chance to warm up a little and not produce the snow or sleet expected. That would have helped to hold the temps down longer, and result in more ice. I did notice many spots did have some icing north and west of the beltway. Even ABC2 was down below freezing until midnight, so some ice did build up, but not much.
Here was what I woke up to: I live north in 'hill country' and did not break to 33F until 4am. This begs the question: Does it count if you slept through it? I've often wondered that. That goes along the same lines as you hearing a forecast for snow, but it's not in front of you house. So if it happened, but not for your area, is that a busted forecast?
This brings up another poll questions I have posted at the right.
I may be hard or easy on my own forecast, but how would you rate it? If you have not been following all week, you can scroll down for all of the previous blog posts. I held off on early snow maps, but even when I put out about 1 inch, it did not happen. We got ice, but later, and less than expected. If you see my map below, the purely rain area, including Baltimore City and BWI were on target. So how did I do? I give my forecast a B/B-. Not exact, but not bad. Am I being too hard or too nice? I am polling just straight letter grades for simplicity. You 2ns Guess poll results show most of you caught on to the rain winning...
The final part of this storm will be the wind. We do have Wind Advisory for this afternoon and tonight. While we may see a snow shower- especially north and west... we should all have winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph.
If you can watch the Patriot Game in New England. They will be dealing with the heart of this storm. On the edge of ice and snow, could make for near white out conditions....

Major Ice for Some, Others Get None

Fellow weather geeks that have followed the models have seen the trend. The poll at the right reflects the shift to a track farther west. Is all lost? The arctic air has not truly built in here, and the tropical feed into this system will have dramatic warming on the east side. Again, for simplicity, I have been comparing just one model - the GFS - all week to show how elements can change. This also proves my point from earlier this week with that ridiculous snowcast on Tuesday. There are so many models to look at and decipher, many layers of the atmosphere, and text extractions (that won't look pretty here). If I showed it all I would run out of room on this blog- and bore half of you out of here. So let's stick with the basics and continue with the GFS which in fact I think is doing the best job. If you want to discuss other models, you can shoot me an e-mail. I'll try to get back with all of you (but it is the weekend). Here you can see the primary Low still dominant Sunday morning, and slower development of the secondary low. That second low is too close to us, and not off of the coast- which allows the warm flow to dominate. Some areas will get hammered! North/Central PA through central New England will get a major ICE STORM. This may include parts of central MD- but warm air will scream in here Sunday morning. The 'vertical velocities' and tropical support from Olga will produce heavy rain rates and likely thunderstorms... especially for the Eastern Shore. Where the cold air holds longer, moderate icing of 1/2" or more is possible. I think that will be confined west of us.
Even though some sun and warming have taken place today, keep this in mind:

• Low dewpoints will allow for evaporational cooling. The initial precipitation evaporates and drops the temperature to the Wet Bulb level. So when it starts, it will get cooler. At noon BWI was 35F with a dewpoint temp of 19F. That gives a wet bulb near 26F. I don't see us dropping that low, but it should go back below freezing when 'stuff' begins between 4pm and 7pm.
  
• NE winds will lock in that cold air longer farther west and in valleys. While I have a general forecast map, elevation will play a role in ice- in this case, lower levels get more as warm air reaches hill tops first.
• Sunday morning potential for temperatures near 50F with heavy rain in the cities. The may be a sharp boundary with the cold air's last stand. Depending on the actual time and position of 2nd Low, will determine when the wind shifts and cold air filters back in.
• Sunday afternoon: A brief period of snow may be enough to coat the ground, or an inch or so. It's the quick drop in temps that would cause a quick freeze of anything wet.
• Sunday Night's Winds 30-50mph may drop trees and power lines

Snow Poll 2nd Guess

Here are the results of the 1st Guess Snow Poll. With 98 people voting you can see the expectation was for a modest amount. The winning vote is for 1"-2", but a close second are hopefuls for more. Not sure if I swayed the vote with my forecast, or the vagueness of the ice and rain mixed in. For simplicity purposes I have posted a 2nd Guess Snow Poll right here. I will have my analysis and final call just after noon...

My First Call- Updated and fixed diagram

Before I get into my 1st call, a reminder that a new Snow Poll is at the right side here. That is your 1st call for total snow at BWI. This includes beginning and end of storm, by Sunday night.
Also, a lot of questions on freezing rain. Here is a great animation explaining winter precipitation. As warm air works in to a storm, it often rides above the ground first, while cold air which is more dense stays at the surface. Depending on how thick the layer of warm air is, and how warm it is will determine:

1. If snowflakes from the clouds melt.
2. If there is a chance to refreeze before reaching the ground.

• Sleet- Melts then refreezes
• Freezing Rain: Falls as rain, freezes on the ground.

The most extreme I have seen was in Danbury, CT with rain at 19F. A few years ago we have drizzle at 21F in front of ABC2 Studios.

Being my day off, this will be brief... The models have been all over the place. There general idea I see is slower with the development of the coastal Low. This will make for a longer duration event. Considering the Coastal Low synopsis, it also means a better chance that we have an ice storm. Calling total snow will be tough since I still think we will see it on the bookends - both beginning and end of the storm Sunday evening. All snow line will be well to the north - highlighted in white. Most likely we get between 1/2 and 3 inches (north) of snow then change to sleet/freezing rain quickly after dark. This coastal Low during Sunday should bring us back to snow around noon. Depending on the strength and position we could pick up a few inches on the back side before ending. There is model support for the warm air to get in with temps in the upper 40s Sunday morning. I don't fully agree with that. Cold air damming usually is tough to break west of the bay. That is why I-95 or the bay often ends up as the dividing line. The cold air gets banked up just east of the mountains. Its possible that Frederick and Carroll counties have much more ice than Frostburg which will likely turn to rain closer to the primary low. Again this is 'roughly' what I see right now. It could all change with just a shift 50-100 miles on tonight's models. One thing to look out for is how cold it gets tonight. If we end up low to mid 20s before the clouds roll in, it will hold us lower at the onset. Updated at 3:30pm: It should be noted that storms like to set footprints for themselves. In this case the snow or ice pack can lock in the freezing air. But something that should not get left out is the wind on the back side of this storm..GALE FORCE in the metro areas throughout the region. That means if there is ice on trees, etc., it will be a major problem. Still thinking just north and west - as typical.
I'll get back Saturday morning. This whole event will also determine if I have to get back to work myself this weekend, so I have a personal investment here.

You win! The Early Snowmap and another model.

The 1st Snow Poll is now closed. I was surprised at the response to not show the early map, yet then final surge just barely won 54 to 50. 20 of you would rather wait until after the storm. Well, here it is, but small enough for those of you who don't want to see it. THIS IS NOT MY FORECAST! I don't know this forecaster, but it came from an Accuweather forecaster on Tuesday. It shows Baltimore in the 3"-6" range. I'm curious to see if he has changed his outlook since then. Again, if you click the image, you may have trouble backing up here. Copy URL and paste back in browser - sorry.
I am off work on Friday I will make my first call here during lunch time. I have posted a new Snow Poll at the right. Here you can share you're best 1st guess of total snow (not including ice, etc) for the Baltimore area. This does not include the northern snow-burbs, but the official report at the airport on Sunday night. I'll run another one on Saturday as well to see if you change your mind.

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More Model Support. Here is a 75 Hr forecast from the SREF my buddy Tony Pann sent me. This is for Sunday afternoon and holds the morning GFS idea. Notices the coastal Low over DE, and MD is on the back side. This looks like the primary, with no occlusion or transfer. This would be in response to a strong block to our north. I'm sure the message boards are lit up this evening with renewed hope.

ICE-olated Mid Day

One of my gripes with perceived warming is due to bad weather stations. At 11am, I noticed a lot of 'weatherbug' stations ranging from 31F-34F. BWI was 37F, and stuck there all morning. That site has had issues in the past, so I called the NWS office. They compared to weather underground, and thought it was fine. Well sure enough, at noon, it dropped to 34F. Much more in line with the region, but what if I did not call???
Snow lovers, this is actually a good sign. The front early in the week was projected to move north, but did not and temps stayed colder. Today's damming is keeping us colder- and a better chance of ice that I did not believe this morning. So the trend of colder may be due to the model's lack of data up north, and lack of credit to cold air. The trend this morning with the weekend storm is colder and more ice/snow. And that may be biased. The Snow Poll ends soon, so if I post the map, it will be this evening. I am off of work tomorrow, but will blog by noon when the morning models are in. That is when I will put my first snow cast out.

ICE-olated

Note: There is a blogger problem with clicking for a full image today. You may not be able to get back to the blog, so copy URL and re paste if needed.
This is the advisory I woke up to. Ice will be isolated, but I have to report it. As of 4am, I could not find any temperatures in the metro Baltimore area below freezing. At 6am, it was ranging from 31F to 34F in Central Baltimore County. Sure the first round of precip may drop the temp a degree or two from evaporational cooling, so there may be some 'isolated' icy spots, but today's problems will be to our north in central PA to NYC metro. Locally, between 31F and 35F, and any ice would be just during the morning ride - North of the beltway! However, wet roads, and ice build up on 'other stuff' is possible. Mainly the valleys hold on to the cold. The hills just warmer with tis set up.
The Snow Poll has a few more hours, but I am surprised that most of you do not want to feed the sensational machine with early snow forecasts. A few hours left, but again I will act on the results.
As we shift out attention to the weekend storm, here is the latest from the GFS model for Sunday. Honestly, with it's tendency to flip and flop, this is not too bad. It's back to where it was two days ago with a coastal Low off of the DE coast. This could be the perfect set up for the NW 'burbs and southern PA, but any fluctuation would prove a bust. There is so much to consider with this storm, first of which is the current storm passing through. That wraps ups off of the Canadian coast and sets up the cold block. The exact position on Saturday of this block will determine how far south the cold air gets, and resulting path of the next storm.
Here is the Canadian Model showing Saturday evening. The High in Ontario is the result of that block, but also look at the intrusion of Olga from the Caribbean. That would not only inject tropical moisture, but warm air into the system.

The Canadian's solution on Sunday is an initial Low in Ohio, occluding (closing off in late stage of development) and sending it's energy to a developing system overhead or just south. That's not good for snow, but ice or rain turn over. This Low is about 100 west of the GFS, and would make all the difference in how much we get. At this point, I can say that there will be enough moisture to result in 1-3 inches of liquid. But will that include ice, or snow? Then how much of each? Central PA/NY and New England a foot plus a good possibility. But for the big I-95 cities it is that classic meandering mix. Either way, it should end as snow as it pulls away from us on Sunday. Whatever happens Saturday night is still 'up in the air', but Sunday morning through mid day should be our snow time.

Wednesday's Waiting Game

First- a reminder of the Snow Poll on the right. I will act on the results. Comments should be fixed, so please share your thoughts...
Today: The warm up. It was expected to be the warmest day, but huge bust potential as any sunshine could jump temps into the 70s. Since we were at 52F at 5am, I am conservatively going 60F-65F. Just waiting on the front just west which could slide in before evening with rain.
Tomorrow: Rain ending as snow? Always waiting for the next model run, but based on my morning forecast, here you can see the NGM 'slow with the low'. Based on this projection, the final wave along this old front will be to our southwest on Thursday evening. Cold air will spill in, but not allow the freezing line to catch up and for us to turn over to end as snow.

Here however is the NAM model for the same time. You can see the low has passed to our south 'east'. That would allow the north wind to drag down colder air. There is one problem here. Notice the yellow line- that is the famed '540 line'. A thickness measured that often relates to the rain/snow line in storms. It is too far north, but not the only ingredient. There is a lot of information to decipher, but here is the 850mb Temperature map. This is an idea of where the freezing line might set up at cloud level (roughly 4,000Ft). What's difficult here is that surface temps may be above freezing while it's cold enough aloft. I see this an an elevation thing at best. Which means Hereford Zone and up near the PA line has the best chance, but lower elevations will not allow any clouds flakes to survive the trip. Locally, just a near miss for most of us.
As for this weekend storm, remember when I said it was too early to get excited? There has been a lot of talk about the potential for this coastal bomb, and you will likely see fluctuations in the models. The GFS model I have been showing demonstrates this often. It has a warm bias with coastals, and can shift a rain snow line 100 miles with each run. Here you can see it is 200 miles north of yesterday's position for Sunday morning. It could very well shift back with the next output, but a sign of how fickle the chaotic atmosphere is. To plot a specific time, place, snow line and amount too far out is nearly impossible. Surely the potential for a big east coast storm is safe, but not who gets what. I've seen it too many times, and don't want to get myself excited, nor scare the viewers. Should I also mention that there is also a chance that energy from Olga gets pulled into the east coast trough? I will, if it holds tomorrow. Again, a waiting game. We wait for the next model to see if the trend is faster and farther, slower or closer. Snow, ice, rain, or a bust. Please vote in the 'Snow Poll' and Stay tuned...

Snow Poll

There is some buzz now on the weekend storm. As a scientist and broadcaster, I say it is dangerous to put a number out too soon. There is not enough data to support total snowfall more than 48 hours before it 'starts'. If the storm does not verify, or changes the public sees you crying wolf. I posted a poll at the right to see what you think. What's better? Trying to hit a home run and risking a strikeout, or analyzing data and being responsible to the public. Regardless of my opinion, I will act on your votes here on this blog. I welcome your comments as well.

TerribleTues-day?

Let's start off with what we missed yesterday. I pointed out the warm air to the south, but this is ridiculous. While we were stuck at 47F, Richmond hit 79F! If you read my blog last Friday/Saturday which discussed this warm up just missing us, I truly never expected anything like this.

OK- Parents know about those 2's...sorry for the bad pun, but there is so much to talk about today: Ice Storm in the mid west, Sub Tropical Storm near Puerto Rico, and a weekend Winter Storm for us???
The ice storm in Oklahoma might be the worst in recent memory with power outages, trees snapping and covering roads, a morning tally of 18 deaths - it's just bad! All is not OK in OK. Check out this scary statement the NWS posted yesterday:

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TULSA AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. SOME INTERSECTIONS MAY NOT YET HAVE TEMPORARY FOUR WAY STOP SIGNS. CALL 911 FOR LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCIES ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT HANG
UP IF YOU CALL, YOUR CALL WILL BE ANSWERED. THE TULSA POLICE DEPARTMENT IS ON OPERATION SLICK STREETS. IF YOU HAVE A NON INJURY ACCIDENT, DO NOT CALL 911. THE POLICE WILL NOT RESPOND. ALL HOSPITALS EXCEPT THE OSU MEDICAL CENTER AND HILLCREST MEDICAL CENTER ARE OPERATING ON BACK UP POWER. AEP-PSO HAS PRIORITIZED RESTORING POWER TO HOSPITALS FIRST. IT COULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE POWER TO BE RESTORED TO ALL HOMES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER FROM THE COLD AT AREA HOSPITALS. SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

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The tropics continue to be active as 'Sub Tropical' Storm Olga was named yesterday. This once again brings up the question of naming storms. Recently the National Hurricane Center began the practice of naming 'sub tropical storms'. Not full Hurricanes! Some forecasters believe this is falsely inflating the numbers to justify - well either their off season purpose or the seasonal forecast. Either way, it counts as another one on the list - post season and will be a central Caribbean event this week. Click the image for a full view.

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal this weekend is going negative, which supports coastal snow storms for us. That is mainly due to the final push of the Midwest ice storm strengthening when it moves out to the ocean on Thursday. Here is the GFS outlook for Sunday showing a large coastal storm off of the DE coast. Both the Canadian and GFS support this, but plotting an ice/snow line this early would be purely guesswork. At this time, I would hedge my bets on a mix developing late Saturday, turning to snow on Sunday. For reference, since the GFS did the best job with this storm, I will continue to show this model's projections for Sunday morning. Remember that timing and position can vary widely over the next few days, so it's a little early to get really excited.

Monday Makeover?

For some maybe, but essentially more of the same. This was the scene at 5:00am this morning: Dense Fog Advisory since it was so thick it was hard to see street signs and other cars on the roads. BWI 39F, yet Richmond, VA was at 63F. Wow! Although the fog was worse north of B'more, and not that bad downtown, the moderate rain that fell between 4-6am just made it ugly. The temperatures at that hour told the true story. I telestrated this stationary front that has been plaguing us all weekend, and will do so most of this week. Combine chilled ground from recent snow, moisture from falling rain, and warm, moist air trying to move our way- and Fog is often the result. This boundary is essentially the polar front. Click over to the TV GRAPHICS, RADARS and CAMS tab. The second link down has the national temperature map, and you can see the polar plunge in the nations heartland. Not much push for the cold air to move, just stay in place, and we just make it on the mild side, or do we? Figuring out these fronts is one of the hardest things. It's safe to say we stay out of the ice, but how far north that warm air makes it, could be the difference between low 40s and mid 60s. I did forecast the Eastern Shore to hit 65F (Easton), while the chilly air gets dammed in Cecil county stuck in the 40s. The rest of us should hit near 50F or so. Regardless, it looks like we are in for showers from this front through Thursday. At early glance, Saturday may bring the next chance of snow, stay tuned...

1 Degree of Sanity

So last night ended up to be a whole lot of nothing. Well, rain- since temperatures stayed at 33F at BWI and most of central MD. So much for that snow burst in the afternoon and Advisory. I don't make the Advisories, nor does any other TV weather guy. That is a government issue from NWS. All I can do is pass it along, even though I did not expect it. Sort of like my findings of this web image on Internet Explorer. I just found out the IE6 does not support my programs CSS files. Please try the browser link in the upper right to see what I mean...
The worst thing about snow- when it melts. A lot of that today around here. Tonight it's more of the same- rain or freezing rain. This next wave is going to be a matter of not temperature degrees, but degrees of latitude. Here are the GFS maps for Monday, since it did the best job last week with the snow on the 5th. Where does the front set up? On the left is the surface map and 12 hour precipitation. On the right is the 850mb temperature map. This level is roughly 1500m or 4,500 ft above the ground - but changes all of the time. This level helps us with ice events as well as expected temperature down at ground level. You can see I've circled the 10C in yellow, which would put us in the 60s, but the 0C in light blue is in northern PA. A sharp contrast in a close area. I still expect rain, but there will be a range of temps close to 40F or 60F depending on how far north the front can get. The atmospheric tendency has been to verify a little farther south that model predictions. That would eliminate the the GFS aiming for 60F on Monday. Although I would feel safe in the low 50s. The one caveat, if we get sun after morning rain, or the wave in OH gets stronger. That would lift the front north and would increase our likelihood of jumping on the heat bandwagon. I'm taking the rest of the weekend to watch my snow melt. It may be another two weeks until we can get more.

Noon Update

A Winter Weather Advisory was posted just before noon for tonight and Saturday morning through 6am. Looks like the cold air hangs on with another wave of moisture. Icing likely after dark for most of us. North near the PA line 1/2 to 1 inch of snow by morning. This is tough to line up since it will be warm air at cloud level that will determine who gets snow or sleet. Either way, it's light, but enough to be a pain. Click image for larger view. Updated Maps on Weather Graphics Page.

Getting More...Online and Outside.

First, I wanted to ask you to try another web browser if you are using Micr. Int. Explorer. I've posted a link here on the right. I tested my site on Explorer yesterday, and it looks quite different. I was quite disappointed. From the banner, colors, and it was missing some elements. Just give this browser a try. It's free and will work much better overall. You might actually thank me.
As for more snow.. A lot of people have asked if this start indicates a snowy winter. That's like expecting the Orioles to make the playoffs when they do well in April. We might have a better chance though, but no guarantees - yet. Today, I would focus more on light and mix. It has raced in here, and I first began to adjust my forecast on TV at noon yesterday. This morning, my car thermometer (at 3:45am) was down to 13F in Hunt Valley. BWI hit 14F. Then this cloud deck rolled in, and any heat that rose up overnight, was bounced back down to the ground, so BWI was back to 20F at 6am. This system will track just north and west, which isn't a great track for us. So On that fast pace, it now appears that it could arrive earlier, with some snow, but still be light. This is the leading edge of warmer air, which will still bring us rain this weekend as we get back into the 40s.

Afternoon Update

I don't normally post twice a day, but wanted to share a few things. First this visible satellite image from mid day shows the snow pack under clear skies. If you look close enough, you can make out some rivers and mountains that look darker. ALBEDO: Measurement of solar reflection. That explains today's glare off of this fresh snow pack, and holding our temps lower than forecasted. Look at the Nation Temps on my Weather Graphics - Radars and Stuff. That cold air may hang on with next system moving in Friday afternoon. I now see us with sleet or a mix at the start. More on TV and here Friday...

'Thursday' Morning Quarterback

Yesterday I gave myself a mid day report card of a B. This morning, I'd say between a B and B-. Is it wrong that I am upset for undercutting the snow? A little humble pie? In retrospect, I did blog early this week that this track would often give us the higher end of snow, and the bulls eye was in Central MD. Also, I have been pointing to Dec 5th for about a month (well for the past few years too). However, I was afraid to pull the trigger yesterday morning for this first event. Honestly, I never would have gone higher than 4" though. Here is one of our report maps. I have another on on my Weather Graphics and Cams Page. Below you can see some Doppler Estimates. Click on each image for a full view.
What I got right: It snowed, it was worse after 3pm, and I was the first to put out accumulating amounts. What I got wrong: Morning snow - was from a second Low that developed ahead of the clipper. This gave us the added 2-3 inches. Some roads were icy during the day. that was due to temps staying 3 degrees colder, so more stickage and accumulation. Why? Well the track of a clipper in southern VA is perfect for us. I knew that, but rounding the base of the 500mb tough, and tapping into 850mb Temps of -6C to -8C allowed the support for this moisture to survive the trip over the mountains. The clipper itself would have given us 2-4 inches, but the development ahead of the main Low is what pushed some amounts over 6 inches. Thanks to all for sharing your pics... I will try to get some on the air or here later. Remember my full web site link is in the upper right corner of this blog.

DOPPLER ESTIMATED SNOWFALL
Click map for larger view

Mid Day Report Card

A huge response from the viewers, and lots of happy students here at Sparrows Point HS getting out early. I am not surprised, but I need to explain what happened. Overall, I give myself a B. First Dec. 5th proved itself again- see morning blog below. I've said it for about a month now. But this morning was a rough ride. Snow was on schedule, but the early burst west and south near DC melted on near freezing roads, then re-froze quickly. That was the early ice, and 4 hour ride from Harford County to DC I heard about. With air temps steady 24F to 28F, more 'stickage' on roads mid day. The lack of melting, is one reason to up my total range to near 3". Also, so banding set up from Mt. Airy to near PA line in Baltimore County already piled close to 3" or 4" in spots by 1pm. I am still holding for the main roads to get icy after 3pm. If anything, watching the main Clipper Low this evening, may actually produce 5 inch amounts in parts of Carroll County. I may also be reporting 3-4 inch amounts close to the beltway tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed the early gift either way. I'd rather start low and up my totals, that have to pull back.

Our Date With Destiny

It was this date in 2001 that we set the record High temperature of 75F. Since then, it has marked the first snowfall of the season. Today will mark 5 of the last 6 years. I find this truly fascinating for nothing other than coincidence. Click on the image for a full view.
Note: If you are not reading this on my new website, please use the link in the upper right of this blog.
On www.justinweathertalk.com you find:
This Blog
My TV WeatherMaps and Graphics
Local Weather Stations and cameras throughout Maryland
Radar and Satellite Page
Videos of some of my winter storm coverage in Baltimore.
Note: My December 5th Live shot (from WBAL days) is posted below...

While this is our first event of the season, and this Snow Advisory affects all of us, I expect the mid day roads to be wet. However, a burst is posts, could make some roads in Carroll and Western Howard Counties slipper. But I expect the main problem to be after 3pm. That's when the snow picks up and the sun goes down. The ride home will be slow.
As of 6am, the models are on target with my forecast, showing this clipper passing to our south. That combined with colder temps locked in place, a little more snow may fall just south along the path of the clipper. Generally I am expecting 1-2 inches for most of us. Here is the overnight model breakdown:
NGM: .16" = 1-2" Snow
AVN: .28" = 3" Snow
NAM: .15 = 1 1/2 " Snow

Please share your pics with me on the Contact Me Page or through ABC2 at weatherpix@wmar.com

Now a trip down memory lane. One of our newsroom managers reminded me of the snow angel I did on the air while back at WBAL. That was on the famed December5th back in 2002. Here is some of that coverage below. I have more if you see the tab for Photo and Video Albums above (on full web site)

Falling Temps, Flying Leaves, and Flakes

Today: Blustery! What is the true definition of that? I usually consider it when the wind comes in bursts, surges, and makes it feel colder. Today would fit. As temperatures struggle the reach 40F, it will feel like the 20s. How about the snow as well. Following a few streamers from Lake Erie down into Dixie is tough. I did mention it on the air yesterday, but did not want to push it too much. Unfortunately enough did fall to coast the ground in northern Baltimore County and Carroll County. The roads were salted this morning due to icy spots. These flurries and snow showers will continue until mid day, but be isolated. You can ABC2's StormCenter Doppler in my Weather Graphics Page. But that isn't really the story today is it?
Tomorrow it will snow. For all of us. This is the model output for the NAM (North American Model), an upgrade from the former ETA, and has a tendency to overdue precipitation. I am using it, because the other images don't do a good job highlighting this clipper.
Two things to consider: First, when a clipper passes to our south, we often get the high end or more of snow. When it passes just north, we get much less or nothing. Second, there is cold air support for all snow. The general rule of thumb is 10 to 1. So multiply these numbers by 10 for an idea of snowfall.
From overnight the range of liquid equivalent forecasts for Baltimore are:
NAM:0.27"
GFS: .16"
*NGM:0.09" (but that only goes out until Wednesday at 7pm. I will update these numbers by noon)
My general call is for 1-2 inches of snow. The timing will be afternoon through midnight. That means the evening commute could be slippery as roads tend to accumulate snow when the sun gets low between 3pm and 4pm. It should end overnight, but if we get wet afternoon roads to ice up, then Thursday may warrant a school delay. December 5th recent snow history and video of my LIVE coverage from WBAL tomorrow.

Something Blowing in the Wind

Wind Advisory Today- Gusts to 50mph
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I had a little ice yesterday morning, but since I live up north - I knew it was isolated. Soon we will all get to share a scene of winter. As the storm winds up in New England, a very potent Polar Air Mass moves in. The transition will result in damaging winds today. But as we jump ahead to Wednesday, the indication now is that we may repeat 4 of the last 5 years. December 5th tends to be our first day with snow in Baltimore - (More on tomorrow). Here is some of the model support:
First: My favorite for winter events is the Canadian. Here you can see the clipper in central Ohio on Wednesday afternoon. I highlighted the potential snow line in yellow, as the precipitation moves in during the afternoon hours. This type of system does not often have a lot of moisture with it, but this quick move and path likely overhead or just to our south, will give us it's full punch. Early bet on 1" accumulating or more. The real indication of the amount begins about 60 hours before the event, which would be this morning's package. If i see anything significant, I'll update it here.
Either way, the support for cold air is seen here on the GFS. A nice trough in the 850mb level showing the cold air aloft to our north continues to flow in. This map shows the important freezing line south of central Maryland. So even though high temperatures will be above freezing at ground level, cloud level support for snow is there with temperatures -4C to -6C.
Behind this, another quick moving system will reach us on Friday with wintry mix. Looks like winter is here, and glad I finished my new web site just in time. Please see the link above and surf around. If there is something more you would like to see- contact me.

This is my December. This is my time of the year...

UPDATED 1:30pm

That was for the Linkin Park fans. But, yes, I love December, and on schedule we have a winter pattern. Is it winter yet? Meteorological winter begins today and is the 3 month stretch of December, January, and February. Astronomical winter begins at the solstice- shortest day o the year. This year that is December 22nd. Either way, it has marked the beginning of a winter pattern for Maryland most of the time. I have made mention many times of December 5th for Baltimore's first snow. See below.
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Congrats to Wisp Ski Resort at Deep Creek Lake. They opened for the season today! Now it's all about the developing storm in the plains. As of now, what may begin as a mix will be light, but light freezing drizzle is something that could be a big problem. I remember a January morning back in '01 I think- when freezing drizzle led to over 800 car accidents in Baltimore County. Either way, a better chance for PA.

Well, the morning models don't look impressive. Here is the NGM (black background), and Canadian (white background). If anything, you can see a distinction of the precip staying just north in PA. That doesn't mean we stay dry, but anything that falls early, may appear on radar, bu dry up before reaching the ground. VIRGA. Or, it may just be very light. Temps tonight will dip between 25F and 30F, but very dry. The timing is likely well after midnight - say after 3am. I would hint at anything from flurries to some sleet, then a light mist or drizzle. Temps will be near 30F just north and west of the beltway, but safely near freezing by the bay. I've highlighted the NE to E wind expected to cause this. If we get any steady precip this far south, then we could dam in the cold air in all day. Our main shot of moisture will be the rain that moves in Sunday night. By then we should be at least in the 35-40F range, but some near freezing spots near the PA line.
That famed December 5th has a chance again this year to prove itself. I'll share that frequent historical date this week. Here is the Canadian run for Wednesday, and this clipper has decent moisture with it, as well as cold air. Stay tuned.
Note: November ended with an average temperature of .7 degrees above normal, and 1.60" of rain below normal.