The Chill is on!

While it looks like yesterday's extrapolation from GFS looks to be too cold, it will be frigid. Partially thank the fact that most of our snow melted, and we will likely end up in the mid 20s instead of upper teens in central Maryland today. However, we can expect some single digits temps in the morning. Good thing it's a holiday and a lot of people will get to sleep in. Here you can see this morning's temperatures. I wanted to highlight some spots. First Football: The 3pm Game New England will not be too bad. Boston's 28F this morning however was the same temperature as Pensacola, FL. New Orleans was down to 34F. Note: Atlanta Georgia picked up about 1 inch of snow- but a lot melted on warm ground.
This evening game in Green Bay, WI will be the dangerous one. This morning's temperature ranged from -15F to -20F in northern Wisconsin. Kickoff temperature will be around 0F, with -15F wind chill. That means frostbite can develop in less than 15 minutes. While it might be fun to watch (the Giants win) on TV, it will be dangerous for players and fans.
Tomorrow the beard gets shaved.... but winter is just getting started. Just a quick peak at Tuesday from the Canadian. A cold front will try to reinforce our cold air, and bring us some showers. Right now it looks like snow and or rain showers... but may have the potential of an inch of snow. A series of cold fronts will move through during the week, with a chance of a larger short wave storm next Sunday. More on this Monday.

Arctic Blast, Close Shave

I made a video blog announcing how ABC2 wants me to shave on TV Monday morning. That is still in yesterday's post below. I made a promise (for the kids) and it will come off. Over the past week, I have been talking about the certainty of this arctic air. What was uncertain was the handling of Thursday and Saturday (today snow). First, here is the GFS Surface and precip accumulation for this evening. I highlighted what I mentioned on TV yesterday, it looks like a better chance farther south. My old maps are in the TV Graphics Page. Looking at this morning's radar, there may be some flurries and light snow during the day, but here the GFS indicates any measurable accumulation on the lower/eastern shore. Baltimore is marked with a yellow X to show the arctic front that may provide some light snow, but push the coastal farther east. If things change, I am on call to work this evening- so I'll get to talk about it then...Let's hope not- I've got family in town I'd like to stay with...
Below is the text output that shows three important points.

1. Forecast accumulation is .01 inches
2. Sunday afternoon temperatures could stay below at 18F or lower!
   
3. Wind (measured in knots) will be gusting 20-30mph. Wind Chill will be near ZERO!

BZzzzzzzzzzz... Shave Live on TV

Afternoon Announcement: I will take pics of the family reaction over the weekend and post them as well...



It's almost time. We have a busy morning, but the poll at the right might explain the delay in the shave. I am amazed by the response from many of you. Quite a few want me to keep it, others just to get my parents. Seriously, at this stage with a young kid- it's all about him. I was never a showboat, and this may be my last shot. So for those of you that think I am backing out- I am not. We did get the needed snow, and my promise will be followed through. Soon! ABC2 is working on the best way to share it.

Saturday's storm is not looking like our shot. Better chance for the Eastern Shore. I will try to post (if I can) this evening.
In the meantime, check out my Snow Page. I had faith in the flakes, and tried to encourage the kids that winter was not done. In fact check this out:
BWI Snow:

• Yesterday: 2.4"
• Season: 7.2"(1.8" above normal)
• Normal: 5.4"

The Snow was pretty close to the forecast map (see yesterday's post below). However Anne Arundel County got a surprise with more snow. I had mentioned on TV yesterday that we were aware they were not included in the Advisory. This was based on the temperatures expected to warm up just enough and turn them over to sleet and rain earlier (after 1-2 inches of snow). Instead, the burst of heavy snow arrived nearly at the start and helped to drag down colder temps from the clouds and hold it in long enough. Rates were 1-2 inches per hour.
I just captured some of the time lapse videos of the snow I showed on TV yesterday. I will post them here this weekend.

Harford County Pictures??? BEARD POLL

If you have a snow report and or good picture of the storm in Harford County, plese send it to me at work berk@wmar.com
The Beard Poll is at the right. Also check out my snow page for more on this and Baltimore snow history.
Former posts with Live Cams and maps below:

First Flakes- 10:30am- 1:30pm Sloppy roads!!!

Right on schedule. I am sure the collective rush to the windows may have been recorded as a blip on the Richter Scale..
At 1:30pm- I am just baffled. We have a steady south east wind, yet temps are holding. I see impressive returns on the radar (See TV Graphics , etc page) near DC. That may be the sleet and the change over. Until then- looks like amounts may have to be updated- and the beard is likely coming off. I am staying at the station to double team this evening. If you have snow amounts- e mail them to me there - with your town: berk@wmar.com.
Below in this morning's post you can see the snow maps. Here are some update camera images from:
Glenelg is west in Howard County(here).

Inner Harbor Baltimore from MD Science Center and Annapolis is south in Anne Arundel County (below). You can find more in the County Spotlight pages

Winter Storm-Not For all

No Snow=No Shave: Day 14 I need 2 inches to fall at BWI to shave, this might be a close call there. More on my Snow Page (link above)
Yes, this is the same storm I blogged about over last weekend, then let go a few days ago. Not completely though: The wintry mix was always in my forecast, I just didn't want to get too excited over this, and we kept the lines down at the stores.
I am still close to what I said yesterday. The difference is the early arrival catching up and holding some slightly colder air in place. Don't expect to see anything on your way to work or school, but you will be at the window watching it around lunchtime.
Here are the basics:

• Snow begins for all 9am-1pm
• Mix and change to rain city/south by evening.
• I-95 will separate snow/ice north- rain south.
• Check road pavement temperatures for potential slick spots.
• Icy problems Friday morning in Advisory areas.

Check my TV Weather Graphics and Stuff Pages- Our StormCenter Doppler eliminates the false flakes (virga), while the regional radars will look like it is much closer. This will be a busy day, so I may not be able to post about models, etc. I will hop on quickly and update the snow arrival right here- so check back.
Just wanted to give the basics, and thank you all for spreading the word about my site. Don't forget to get all of your friends to turn the channel to ABC2 as well.

Afternoon Update

There is a chance of an early arrival for Thursday's storm. that would lock in colder air and linger more snow and sleet. The timing of 'near mid day' is what I am aiming for. Ice problems may linger north and west in Hereford Zone, Carroll and Baltimore Counties. I-95 will likely be wet anyway during the day and just a chilly rain with warming in the evening. If I can I will update later...but definitely on TV in the morning...

Is the Trend Our Friend?

No Snow=No Shave: Day 13
Hope you had a good view of the snow burst yesterday. It wasn't the 2 inches at BWI I need to end my beard. Here is the radar from Tuesday mid day, and a pic of the coating I had at my place.
In honor of my son's 2nd birthday, he let me use his buggy to show the snow. It melted pretty quickly though.

Skipping ahead to Thursday's storm, I have a hard time getting excited about this storm considering our track record since mid December. The guidance has us with a mix to rain , then perhaps some frozen junk at the end on Friday morning. Nothing pure, nothing clear cut. So this is when I rely on climatology. Hereford Zone and Carroll County with the chance of starting with snow and sleet, and ending with some ice. While we may be lucky to start with sleet or snow around the beltway, it's likely we turn to rain. Borderline temps will stay in the mid 30s.
Still on that arctic blast for the weekend. As it arrives, this 'snow burst' on Saturday should be more impressive than what we just had. By Sunday, afternoon temperatures should range from upper teens in Carroll County and southern PA to mid 20s by the bay.

The pattern is turning! We may have to shift our focus away from disappointing coastals, and wait for clippers. The long range for Thursday next week could look like the Dec 5th storm. I would be more than surprised if this worked out exactly as this view 9 days out- but the GFS model is still trying.

Snow Burst

No Snow=No Shave: Day 12; Still waiting for 2" @ BWI. check out my Snow Page for more.
Once again, here is the 500mb chart for this afternoon showing the vort max which should generate some strong snow showers. I have timed it out between 11am and 3pm. This is the type of set up that will not like too much until it gets close. Some mid day heating should help enhance the action, and I still expect gusty winds and a coating on the ground in spots.
This may act as a little cold front, although all it will do is slightly shift the wind and allow the skies to clear out tonight cooling us down into the lower 20s. It will, however allow a sunny day to bring us back to normal temps Wednesday.


The outlook for Thursday is still on the fence. While it is looking like that polar air and trough will not truly build in and is holding off until after the storm, the arrival might come with a mix as some marginal temps hang on- shown with the bold 540 thickness line on the GFS. The Canadian (white background), shows the Low a little farther east. Yesterday I mentioned the trend- and this trend east on the Canadian is better for us, but the cold air still gets pushed into PA. We can thank the the upper level flow around approaching Arctic air for that. This may act as a wave approaching shore, slightly warmer air gets pulled in before the crash of the cold. So while I disputed it a few days ago, the cold air doesn't really get in here until after this coast passes. In fact another short wave, or clipper will move through Saturday with our best shot of snow showers- leading the arctic charge.
This GFS 850mb plot is for Sunday morning. Here the temperatures at around 5000ft will be down to around -20C. That is -4F, and would translate to a struggle to reach the lower 20s on Sunday. If was have snow on the ground- it would likely keep daytime temps in the teens.

Monday Eve. "Why we will get a snow burst Tuesday"

Sorry I forgot to post again earlier. This is just a quick shout out to why I believe we will get a snowburst tomorrow. I know some of you are disappointed we did not get it this morning. These types of storms (Miller B), are Great Lakes systems that develop a new Low off of the Mid Atlantic Coast. It can also hold some warm air and push the storm too far away for us. I had snow at my place, but it was 36F and did not stick- and does not matter to you.
Here you go for Tuesday:
This 500mb WRF plot for midnight and Tuesday afternoon. It shows the vort max (upper level energy or spin) I marked with an X. It is strong, and will be in a perfect spot for us as it passes at the right time for afternoon convection. I would not be surprised is a coating to an inch lays on the north side, but we should get some wind and a burst between 11am and 3pm. The grass, and maybe some roads get a cover, but I will hold the beard until the end of the week.
Thursday is still looking on the fence, or mostly rain- but some eastward push with the models is what I'm watching. I don't want to play it up like I did over the weekend. It will still bring in the arctic air. More on that Tuesday.

Another Dissappointment

No Snow=No Shave: Day 11
Sorry all! While I held on hope, perhaps you got the hint I was making yesterday in my post... it didn't look promising. So forget all that stuff about elevation and cold air aloft... we never had a chance to prove it as the storm generated too far east for us.
I was reminded of something as Tony Pann returned from vacation to take over the weekend and weekday afternoon reports on WCBM: First- A fresh pair of eyes, looking for the first time at the models Saturday night- were not biased from previous runs of a larger storm. Second- The trend is your friend. If the models are consistently lowering precipitation amounts for whatever reason, stick with that trend and lower your expectations. Also, this trend of 'just missing it', may be our pattern. It's been great for New England, as they get pounded again with 1 foot plus in spots. I wasn't too far off with this, but good thing I don't work in Philly. The 3"-6" inches I called for them ended up in NY instead. It was too fast and too far east, we never really had a shot. That is why I also posted Emily's map she put on TV last night. She won!
There is still a chance for Thursday/Friday. More later...
Once again, this is the anniversary of the Great January Heat Wave- 1932. I know this will anger some of you Global Warming folks who think I have an agenda, but this is just almanac fact. This heat wave 75 years ago included the warmest temperature ever in Baltimore onthis date-reaching 79F

Updated: Record Anniversary Heat Wave and Elevation Snow

This is a quick morning update. I will do my best to post this afternoon with a snow-cast map.
First: This is the anniversary of the most impressive January Heat Wave on record in Baltimore.
The year: 1932

• January 13th: 76F
• January 14th: 79F * Hottest ever for the month
• January 15th: 78F

As for tonight's storm, still on the fence. My basic impression is two-fold.

1. As coastal develops, cold air will wrap in at cloud level, surface temps will be bordering freezing. That means sleet and snow likely, but higher elevations will have a better chance for 'stickage' and some accumulation. Note: BWI is near sea level. Towson, Cockeysville and Owings Mills are a little over 400Ft. Reisterstown and Parkton are close to 800Ft.
   
2. Monday morning the storm pulls away, but 'comma' head or heavy precip around the low center may clip eastern sections. Based on temperature profile and track, Cecil county could be the big winner. Early sampling shows potential for 3"-6" from Cecil County to Philadelphia. While NYC and Boston could get 1 foot of snow. Around the beltway, elevation plays role for north side to have the best shot of 'stickage' and accumulation... but roads temps may also be an issue.

Afternoon Update:
The storm might not look like much when you go to bed. It will develop overnight, but looks like just past us. Once a Low Pressure center passes our latitude (north of 39.0N) then we tend to get downsloped and cut off our precip. That looks like the position of the Low when it rapidly develops. The NAM model here for 7am Monday is actually the most impressive. Most have it well past us by then. If you watched the Packer's game last night and saw their snow- it's that Great Lake's storm that is pushing this coastal development a little farther east. This is the 3rd model run with with less moisture and warmer temperatures. I does not look promising! I've highlighted the general forecast area in yellow while the comma head I mentioned above just clips Cecil County. If you watch Good Morning MD on ABC2 I will be focusing on this Monday. Below is the video blog and my snowcast map.

This map was my call from home, below is Emily Gracey's map from ABC2. I think her conservative call on snow will work out better than mine... this made be just a little farther east, and pretty much done for us in the morning.

Saturday 2nd Post Afternoon:

No Snow= No Shave: Day 9
Will schools be delayed or closed on Monday??? I know it's already the buz, but still uncertain. Below I have detailed why, but just a call for snow in the forecast is not what students and teachers (even my new friends at Cockeysville MS) want. The return of winter is a guarantee, and if there has not been a reason to shave the beard by this time next week, I will be shocked.
My GFS Video Blog is at the bottom of this post showing a few changes I don't trust. As for the first event- Sunday night and Monday: The mid range models (48-60Hr) are now catching on to it. Rather than just show a map plot (you can still see the GFS in this morning's post), I wanted to show some of the extracted text I look at. Below you will see the AVN grid from Texas A&M for BWI. This break down can be overwhelming, so I just wanted to point out the important features. More below image:
First in universal time 00Z (Zulu or Greenwich Mean Time) is at night. and 12Z is morning. So 00Z Monday is actually 7pm Sunday evening, and 12Z is 7am Monday Morning.
While the surface temperature is expected to be 34F-35F, the 850mb temperature (~5000Ft) will be -2F to -4F. That includes the 1000-500mb thickness below 540, and further breakdown not on this output (1000-700mb and 700-500mb) justifies either sleet or a heavy wet snow- that might melt on roads.
It's a very tough call. The total precipitation is .54" liquid equivalent. That's enough if all snow to give 3-5 inches of heavy wet snow. If it was daylight, I would say just wet roads, and white grass. At night is a different story. It's been warm for a while, so the chances of the roads cooling down and beating the trucks will be tough. It was have to be at it's heaviest on Monday morning, which it might be- to get a delay. But further south, the lower your chances (B'more city and AA County). The trend of all models is for more on the E. Shore but warmer temps and into New England up to 1 ft. near Boston. I'll do my best for a snowcast tomorrow.

Video Blog of GFS 240Hr Model:

CHANGES- It's back on for Monday Morning.

I should have stayed with my own advice. The GFS has a tendency to flip when longer than 48Hrs ahead of a storm. It looks like it is back on for Monday- but analyzing all of the data, it looks like a classic borderline forecast for us. Pretty good dose of moisture on last nights model run (over 1" liquid equivalent). I-95 corridor could be a very cold rain or sleet and snow. The GFS has BWI at just above 32F but some upper level support for freezing precip. Here is a quick look at the latest NAM. I have a busy morning, but will post what I can concerning the other models this afternoon.
That GFS video clip I did yesterday is still available below. I will try to do another one, which still shows two more storms, but some changes. All will depend on how this first thing behaves...

Pattern Change- Winter Will Return. SOON!

No Snow= No Shave: Day 8
I posted my reasons yesterday about the shifting pattern and return of cold to the east. The models are still dancing around the trough with a few shots of coastal storms. The GFS which I never liked, but has done the best job this year- has diminished Monday's coastal, but building up Thursday and a larger one Saturday. This video is my analysis of this model. Check it out and then fill out the poll to let me know if this is something I should try again.The problem is that this second storm keeps getting pushed back to day 6 or 7 on every run. It sees something, but how confident can we be in it this far out. I am also waiting for the 12Z run for the latest on next week. I may post again on that later today, but definitely over the weekend. For those of you that like analog year, January 2000 started off warm. Jan 2nd and 3rd were both 68F, the 4th was 70F.. then the pattern flipped. We were hit with 3 storms between the 20th and 30th resulting in a total of 23 inches. That was an above normal season for snow- most in just those 10 days. Just how it works out some times.
Great Pictures were emailed to me yesterday. I made a new slide show in the Album page- Best of Baltimore Jan2008. Check it out in addition to my Snow Page.

Heavy Rain Friday, Snow Next Week?

In this quick moving, very active pattern... yet another storm rolls through the nation's heartland. It's a track west of us that keeps us in the warm sector and no chance of snow. What's different between this storm and the once that just passed yesterday morning is it's stage in it's life cycle. Most mid-latitude cyclones, the Red 'L' you see on a weather map, has an average of 3-5 days to grow, peak, and occlude (close off and weaken). The last storm was in it's weakening phase when it's cold front passed MD, while this one will be reaching it's peak. The net result for us, more rain and perhaps thunderstorms on Friday. My new maps are posted on it's page.
As the upper level pattern shifts it's trough of cold air to the east, another developing storm will develop and ride up the east coast. since we are still 5+ days out, the models have a spread of solutions. The GFS which I have shown a lot lately, actually has a coastal storm Tuesday night and Wednesday- just missing us... but I will focus on Monday chance today. First, the Canadian (white background) shows a coastal Low on Monday morningwith most of the moisture oer the Delmarva into southern New England. We would be on the cold side with enough moisture for snow- but too early to distinguish if it's shave worthy. The ECMWF- European (black background), shows a surface Low with a 1008mb center strengthening in a good spot. That would also give us a chance for snow Sunday night into Monday.
In honor of my buddy Tony- here is the Japanese Model for Monday... one that like to give us coastal storms, but does not indicate one here. Perhaps it is along the lines of the GFS which is trying to turn the following short wave on Wednesday into the coastal. Looking at some other parameters, there are least support for a a pattern shift. The NAO is trending negative. That would supply a blocking in the North Atlantic which helps us get coastal snow making storms. Below you can see the Northern Hemisphere 500mb from today to next Thursday. This level is the general upper air patterns that govern our surface weather. It is more generalized, but can highlight the heights here to show the warm and cold pockets. the white circle over the east shows the current warmer than normal conditions vs. next week's tough and cool down in 'blue'. The developing block in the North Atlantic is highlighted in red, in addition to a developing Pacific ridge of warmer air. All signs of a return of winter for us. Note: It was last year , after 4 straight days in the 60s, winter kicked in on January 17th- and held on through mid March.

Chill Out!

No Snow= No Shave: Day 6

I made this graphic for Good Morning Maryland in honor of Primary season. Yup, we got the record, and we are proud to say we called it from the Storm Center. If you look back at last week, I was the first person to point out our the potential of 60s right here in this blog- a shock to many considering the hard freeze we were in. so we ended up a little higher. We are in a pattern of an amplified trough and ridge. While we are on the warm side, I have confidence we get back to the deep freeze soon. Today is just a small step in that direction.

If you look at yesterday's posting, I pointed out the record we would break- one set 78 years ago. I have made it my purpose here to point out scientific data and facts- and not scare anyone. Unfortunately that is what we are bombarded with daily on TV, newspapers, etc. For some reason, I was attacked by a reader for having a political agenda. Regardless, read that posting and there is nothing to warrant the comment I got from 'Anonymous'. Anyone like me who shows that the current variety of weather has happened before, is subject to this stuff. I am open to any intelligent debate, but don't assume any motive for my scientific points. My environmental conscience might surprise you. If you want to play fair, then show yourself. If you remain anonymous- then you are a coward. Besides, to take every warm day and claim Armageddon is not science. Chill out! Oh, I'm sorry, you'll take that the wrong way... so Lighten up!
Last week, it was the deep freeze, and we could very well be there again, soon. This article in the Boston Globe from last week went there. We may have not had snow for a month, but much of the nation has. Record snow and cold in many spots. Last year was expected to be the warmest on record, but the last 6 months changed that. This is not politics, just observations. I know some of you label me a bad person for sharing this information, but I am not. I am a snow lover, and have confidence that more it is not a lost cause. Please check out my new SNOW PAGE (on web site tabs up top). Let me know what you think.
While I have studied and taught climate change- I will leave the specifics to the experts. Please take a few minutes and watch this video below. John Stossel interviewed climate experts who, well they'll tell you their research and has happened to them. Some hints at a coastal storm with snow for us next week. I'll tackle that tomorrow.

This will be Brief

Today we make a good run for a 78 year old record. In 1930, we hit 69F in Baltimore. Today we aim for 72F. A slow cool down begins tomorrow. We should be happy that more rain is in the forecast for the end of the week- there is still a drought to contend with.

Day 5 of "No snow, No save". We may have a chance Sunday and Monday. I'll tackle that once I kick my cold- tomorrow.
For those of you following the '96 Blizzard Anniversary, her is the official NWS Snowfall Map for the storm. It should be noted that the snow records I posted yesterday we the result of a few other clippers separate from the Blizzard.

Snow Anniversary, Near Record Heat

If someone tells you that it does not snow much anymore- please correct them. As we stand today for the season in snowfall:

• 4.8" of Snow
• Normal: 3.2"
• 1.6" above normal

Today marks 12 years since the famous storm of 1996. A storm that justified all of the shopping beforehand. It was tagged the "Blizzard of '96", and lasted a few days. Here you can see the daily snowfall records still on the books. Today's record of 15.8" is the second highest 1 day total for Baltimore in January. The snow lasted 3 days, with a total of 26.6"- with over 3 feet in places like Carroll County. Snow drifts were reported over 6 feet in spots. Ironically, the following week, temperatures hit the mid 60s
This brings up the important point of our personal memory with snowy winters. I can't make the point any better than an email I got last week: This snow in 1996 was our #2 storm on record, it melted a week later. Temperatures hit the low 60s on January 18th. Other winters have had less snow that stayed on the ground for a month or more. Sometimes snowfall itself does not stay in our memories, but the duration of snow pack.

As for the current heat... check the Headlines graphic on the right column. I am forecasting 64F, which is still warm, but not the record. Our heat records date back to the period of warming in the early part of the century. Check out these records for the next few days:

• 7th: 74F in 1907
• 8th 69F in 1930
• 9th 75F in 1937
  

Intriguing Virga! No Snow- No Shave.

This was the radar image at 5pm Friday. At first I was surprised by the cloud line on my way home in the afternoon. There was no vort max and it wasn't lake enhanced banding. If anything, we were shifting the ridge axis. Nonetheless, I saw a distinct cloud line in northern B'more County, and even mamatus near the PA line. Those clouds are most often with severe weather, but essentially occur when cold pockets create bulging at a cloud base.

These pics show the transformation of these bulges a few hours later. It tricked the radar into showing snow. My wife and neighbors thought they looked like tiny tornadoes. Again, this extension of the cloud under the base is what the radar interpreted as snow. Fascinating. This formation lasted for nearly two hours, as the line moved very slowly across the PA/MD state line. Either way, I am just baffled. If you have a good explanation- please let me know.

No snow, no shave. I thought I would mention again that I made a pact on TV not to shave until BWI gets 2 inches of snow. People at work thought it was a neat idea, and I got a few emails about it too. Basically, I was bored and just wanted to do something to pass the time- and an excuse to rest my razor. The kids wear their PJs inside out and put spoons under their pillows the night before a storm, why not try something different. The station decided to take a picture every day to put in a slide show and follow the transformation. I hope we get the snow before the beard is 2 inches long. :-)
In the short term, a chance of some light showers will move in overnight and early Sunday. I did not think it had a chance, but now have to at least include it with my forecast on WCBM this weekend. There might even be some freezing rain just north. Don't worry- this is just the leading edge of our expected warm up next week. We could be in the 60s as early as Monday.

Bouncing Off Of The Bottom, Western Storm

The coldest air of the season! Not denying that after BWI hit 15F this morning. It was back on Feb 6th, 2007 when we dropped to 8F, but that was with some snow on the ground to help refrigerate the atmosphere. Salisbury actually hit 8F this morning. Is this a waste of cold air? I have never hidden my love of snow. Heck, I'm in this biz for my love of weather and in the winter it is supposed to snow. Remember when you were a kid, and loved the snow. I know it causes problems for traffic and business, but today's kids need it to enjoy what we did. It has been a month since our last snowfall, so I wanted to protest. I have decided (with approval from management) to not shave until we get 2 inches of snow officially reported at BWI. My wife- well she is not too thrilled, but it's for the greater good. It's for the kids. If anything, I can rest my razor. In the long range, it may not last that long. There is a chance of 'something' at the end of next weekend. That is 10 days away, so we'll see what happens. No Snow, No Shave.

I wanted to touch on the hype I saw this morning about the series of storms about to hit California. They are accustomed to extreme conditions- so fire scarred hillside will be subject to mudslides. It's bad, but somewhat common. The report on Good Morning America today was from Truckee California, where they expect 10 feet of snow from this storm. Have you have ever heard stories of the Donner party? That was 1846-1847, when nearly 20 feet of snow fell. In fact 1951-1952 65 feet of snow fell on the summit. For more on the unique extreme weather in the Sierra Nevada, check this link.

Caucus Chill, Florida Freeze, & Big Changes Soon

I have often said it's a waste of cold air if there is no snow. Well, they have snow in Iowa, but it's still too cold. Florida- doesn't need nor want snow. These temps this morning are dangerous to the citrus crop. All it takes is 6 hours below freezing to damage the oranges. Looks like there was also some damage to vacation plans. Miami dropped to the upper 30s this morning. It should be noted that last year there was a record freeze in California that caused $480 million in damage.

One primary thing I look at for temperatures is the 850mb level. That's roughly 5,000Ft up but a true measurement of an air mass. That's because it is not subject to the influence of surface features such as water, hilltops, and urban heating. We can calculate the net result at the surface using a skew-T diagram such as this (these numbers are in Centigrade). I spent nearly a semester learning this, so no way I can explain it all now. Here is this morning's (12Z) balloon launch measurement, which would calculate to only 30F this afternoon.
Here is a comparison from this morning (left) to Monday afternoon (right). That's -15c this morning to +14 on Monday. A rise of nearly 30C translates to surface temps jumping close to 60F. This high amplitude jet and dramatic change is still a good sign that there is more to come- and perhaps by the middle to end of the month a pattern shift will bring snow back for us.

Coldest Air ThisSeason/Snowfall Records

My Snowfall Records series continues below... Currently, we are about to experience the coldest air we've had in 10 months. March 7th, '07 was the last time we failed to reach 30F at BWI. Tomorrow will likely stay that cold as well, while overnight lows drop into the teens- even downtown. For contrast- our record high on this date was 71F, way back in 1876. Yes it was warm in January two centuries ago. As for flurries, not the best upper level support with this trough- as we look at the 500mb level for a strong vort max. It will pass well to our south, but the unstable cold air will help clouds develop... only marginal support for flurries or a stray snow shower. Western MD and the ski areas of WV and PA will get a few beneficial inches. The back edge of this trough will swing through tomorrow morning with a small chance of another flurry.

Snowfall Records: 1990s

This is the decade where things get interesting. If you have not seen the rest of the series, continue to scroll down or search for previous posts over the past week. The 1990s shows a range of seasonal snows from the #1 Record ending in 1996 with 62.5" to the 3rd least snow two years later in 1998 with 3.2". We can attribute a strong El Nino to the record snow, and return to La Nina during the low snow years of '91-'92 & '97-'98. The decade itself averaged about 3 inches below the long term average, yet near the 30 year average.
While I love to point out unique stats such as Dec. 5th snowfall or warm Halloweens in Baltimore, These decades are arbitrary and just a function of our calendar. If we take another arbitrary 10 year span- see the result below. This should prove the point of my whole series... It does not snow less that it did in the past. Climate itself is not consistent. It fluctuates! While we may look at a sample of a few years, or decades, over the course of time we settle of the average. Here you see that this 10 year span brought the extreme of top 2 snow winters and bottom #3 and #4. The average out paces the long term average. If this was all you looked at, you would assume that it actually snows more now than the past. Again- all how you break down the stats. Please- pass on the message, and don't lose hope in this season. "Faith in the Flakes" - JBerk