Mid Day Report Card

A huge response from the viewers, and lots of happy students here at Sparrows Point HS getting out early. I am not surprised, but I need to explain what happened. Overall, I give myself a B. First Dec. 5th proved itself again- see morning blog below. I've said it for about a month now. But this morning was a rough ride. Snow was on schedule, but the early burst west and south near DC melted on near freezing roads, then re-froze quickly. That was the early ice, and 4 hour ride from Harford County to DC I heard about. With air temps steady 24F to 28F, more 'stickage' on roads mid day. The lack of melting, is one reason to up my total range to near 3". Also, so banding set up from Mt. Airy to near PA line in Baltimore County already piled close to 3" or 4" in spots by 1pm. I am still holding for the main roads to get icy after 3pm. If anything, watching the main Clipper Low this evening, may actually produce 5 inch amounts in parts of Carroll County. I may also be reporting 3-4 inch amounts close to the beltway tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed the early gift either way. I'd rather start low and up my totals, that have to pull back.

Our Date With Destiny

It was this date in 2001 that we set the record High temperature of 75F. Since then, it has marked the first snowfall of the season. Today will mark 5 of the last 6 years. I find this truly fascinating for nothing other than coincidence. Click on the image for a full view.
Note: If you are not reading this on my new website, please use the link in the upper right of this blog.
On www.justinweathertalk.com you find:
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Note: My December 5th Live shot (from WBAL days) is posted below...

While this is our first event of the season, and this Snow Advisory affects all of us, I expect the mid day roads to be wet. However, a burst is posts, could make some roads in Carroll and Western Howard Counties slipper. But I expect the main problem to be after 3pm. That's when the snow picks up and the sun goes down. The ride home will be slow.
As of 6am, the models are on target with my forecast, showing this clipper passing to our south. That combined with colder temps locked in place, a little more snow may fall just south along the path of the clipper. Generally I am expecting 1-2 inches for most of us. Here is the overnight model breakdown:
NGM: .16" = 1-2" Snow
AVN: .28" = 3" Snow
NAM: .15 = 1 1/2 " Snow

Please share your pics with me on the Contact Me Page or through ABC2 at weatherpix@wmar.com

Now a trip down memory lane. One of our newsroom managers reminded me of the snow angel I did on the air while back at WBAL. That was on the famed December5th back in 2002. Here is some of that coverage below. I have more if you see the tab for Photo and Video Albums above (on full web site)

Making Up for Lost Time

Despite the little warm up today and tomorrow, November temps are now just normal for Baltimore. The rain however, is -1.21" for the month, and -7.26" for the year. No doubt, we're still in a drought. But today's rain should help a little. This map here is the Canadian model precipitation forecast for 12hrs ending this evening. The yellow and orange in the mountains highlights over 1 inch (legend is in mm). While this type of system will often weaken after crossing the mountains, we should still get close to 1 inch. This cold front will also be responsible for some thunderstorms overnight.
Even better news is for Atlanta. Their reservoirs have made headlines with the potential of going dry next month. Their fortune as changed. Last week, a storm brought over 2 inches of rain. This one could do the same. A little bit a time. To put it all in perspective... Atlanta is still officially -19.08 inches below normal for the year. That is nearly 1/2 of what they should have had by now.
Beyond this storm, the colder air will make a return gradually. A taste on Wednesday, then we're back into the 40s with the next surge this weekend.

Weathertalk readers: The new web site debut is just days away....

Thanksgiving-Warm Turkey, Wet Dessert

Welcome to the Original Weathertalk Blog readers. Thanks for hoping over. This will be a temporary home of the blog, while I am building the new website. Below you will see a poll asking for what you would like to see. I have some neat things planned, but would like your input as well.

Here is the Thanksgiving map as I see it. The cold front will wait until late, so your company may stay longer. That snow in Michigan may piled up to 6 inches north of Detroit...but no chance of it getting here. As for next week's storm... if we are lucky, it will hold off until Monday. Yet early next week will be wet and chilly again. I was hoping to see a pattern shift with a digging trough and cold air reaching us by Wednesday. However the early week storm may steal the energy.
It's a holiday! So I will post again on Friday with a look at some of the models. Enjoy the bird