Storm Did What I Expected, Were You Dissapointed?

I got a few emails over the weekend and more at the station this morning. The theme: Why are these storms not as wet or windy as predicted?
Really?
Last week I spend a lot of time discussing what this storm would do. On Friday I pointed out the winds at the beaches had exceeded 50mph already. The rain on Friday was hard to find, since we 'dry slotted', but we did get hit on Saturday. Not only did we get hit, not only did the storms contain lightning and thunder from Friday night through Saturday, but some of those downpours produced flooding.
This is an example of how rain can be heavy in some spots, and neglect others. But Saturday did hit most of us pretty hard:
Rainfall at BWI was 3.57", but this Doppler estimate shows over 5 inches in Baltimore County that resulted in significant flooding. This map shows the area that got hit hard lines up with I-83 and Falls Rd. That was the reason for two Flood Warnings that were posted Saturday night in Hunt Valley and Shawan. That all drains into the Jones Falls.... which if you saw our coverage on ABC2- was flooding Mount Washington in north Baltimore.
Below is a wider image to show show these bands set up. I did get a few reports from Harford and Cecil County with over 5 inches of rain as well, which was after this image was recorded.
Officially: BWI has had 6.73" of rain this month. Nearly double that of normal, and well above the only 0.35" last September. For the year, we are more than 5 inches above normal, while last year we were almost 9 inches below normal at this time. That explains why we have been reporting about the Great Pumpkin Shortage of 2008 as seen on Halloween-online.com. Another round of rain is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. I will make a mid afternoon post on that, since I will be off those days....

Fay+Florida=Flooding

We will have another day near 90F with a small chance of a thundershowerThis morning, Fay made landfall in CAPE Coral as a Tropical Storm with winds of 60 mph. The good news is that it ran out of water (it's fuel source). The bad news, is that it is slowing down. As of 5am, it was moving at around 8mph. It should slow to 5 mph which will keep the heavy rain over the same areas longer. Remember the storm in Towson last week? This will be that on a much larger scale. Say compare my swimming skills to Phelps, and you'll get the idea. Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next 5 days... You can see a 8.4 inch total near Ft. Meyers. The light blue bulls eye east of Jacksonville is 25 inches! That yellow shade does put most of the state in 7 inches to over 12 inches. While a drought buster, it will be a major flood producer.
This is because the storm forecast is to cross Florida, get out over the Atlantic and turn back west near Jacksonville. This is yet more proof to my theory of the forecast track bias. This is far to the east of the original expectation. Any change in track, stalling, or earlier turn could significantly add to the rain totals.

Stalled Storm=Flooding. More Showers Today- Right For The Wrong Reason

It's a case of- you got it, or you didn't . This storm was bad, and my co workers told em this morning. It rained so hard, they could not see out their windows as it sat in the sat spot for hours.
I have seen a handful of storms like this over my last 11 summers in Baltimore. It's likely a small Bay breeze Boundary set up- which is an invisible wall where the west wind meets up with an easterly flow that develops off of the Chesapeake. That wall often sets up near the fall line, where the hills begin to lead into the mountains to our west. It was around this time in 2000. It rained so hard, the Jones Falls Flooded and cars in Hamden were carried away. I had a group of friends going to the Jimmy Buffet concert at Merriweather, and they got stuck in the flood on the west side of the beltway. That event, also confined to a small area, while just a few miles away, almost nothing.
NWS Doppler estimates here (see the color legend on the left) show over 5 inches in Hampton. The good news, it was right on top of Loch Raven Reservoir. Our top two StormCenter Weathernet rainfall amounts:
Towson- Cromwell Valley ES= 3.86"
Parkville- Parkville MS = 1.37"

Today's forecast is a bust. For me at least.
I bit on the one abrupt model run that had the coastal hang closer and give us rain. NOPE! However, before you call me Dope on a Rope... it is more humid and a cold front is approaching. The chance of more showers and storms will return this afternoon and last at least into Friday....

Hello Dolly, Goodbye Justin- Sort of...

As Dolly bears down on the TX coast, I want to point out one thing:
A category 1 storm in strengthening mode can be more destructive than a
Cat 2 making landfall while weakening. Dolly has tightened up this
morning and could reach Cat 2, but will hold together a bit inland
while slowing down forward movement.

LOCALLY
Flooding is likely as we break the heat wave. Our front has nothing
to do with Dolly, but will give us our own problems as it slows down.
I expect 1-3 inches of rain beginning mid day...

FACT FINDING MISSION:
I will be gone for some, uh, research for a few days. I will be
testing my new iPhone's capabilities on location with all it can do.
This blog was sent from my iphone along with this picture of the
StormCenter. I will post more along the way so let's see how it holds up. I'll be back in the station
next week.

April Showers- or Downpours?

If you did not get to see the Cherry Blossom Festival this year, here is a sample from Jim Schuyler. The rain on the way will take down a lot of the flowers, and the Tidal Basin may end up a milky pink color by tomorrow afternoon. Jim has much more than I can post here, so check out this link to some of his photo albums and perhaps he will post them soon.
Let me begin with the disclaimer that BWI is 2.91 inches of rain below normal for the year to date, that is exactly the forecast from the NAM model through Sunday morning. I would be surprised if it works out that well. The trend since yesterday is for more rain and lasting a little longer this weekend. Here is the rain forecast through Sunday morning, which shows the Bay area of Maryland (in the red shade) with 2.5 to 3.o inches of rain. Much like yesterday, the bullseye is along the lower Mississippi Valley in through Kentucky. This area can expect between 5 and 6 inches of rain. This is all part of a slow moving 'stationary' front with a few waves of low pressure riding essentially from the lower mid west through Maryland. At this time it looks like our best chance of moderate to heavy rain will be both Friday morning and Saturday morning. If we get under some thunderstorms on Friday afternoon- that would change the whole equation... but a very good chance to make a dent or make up the drought deficit. It also brings up the notion of a new pattern for the spring.
Much like the winter pattern was for heavy snow to our north and west, the storm track could be shifting south- closer to us. Combine that with saturated soil from the winter snow pack- and here is the NOAA Spring Flood Outlook.
You can see the just Harford and Cecil county has an above average chance in Maryland. I suspect that is along the already swollen Susquehanna River. Most of Maryland is on target with normal, but the flood risk I mentioned yesterday extends from the Mississippi River Valley with more rain, up through the areas that had heavy snow this winter. While most of this is due left over soil moisture from the last season, that overactive patter is a sign of what we could see this spring.

Quick Changes...

Here is some great video from the BBC as seen in this YouTube Clip yesterday. A colony of Penguins were discovered that can fly!. Obviously an April Fools Joke. Next year, flying Polar Bears quickly evolve with wings out of need.

While we overshot my call of 70F by 5 degrees yesterday, the quick pattern is still on target. I have often pointed out the Law of Averages when relating extreme weather. The fact that we jumped to a high 15 degrees above normal yesterday may very well be balanced out by temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal tomorrow. Today is the transition day- and as you can see here - the 48 Hour forecast map from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), show a brief visit of High Pressure bringing the strong winds this morning, will be out of here Thursday. (note this is a live link- so it will update and be posted after today).
The next wave of Low Pressure will spread over running moisture into Maryland in the form of thickening clouds Thursday and late day rain. Our chance of rain goes up on Friday as a surge of warmer air moves in, but it will not compare to what the lower Mississippi Valley will get.
This is going to be a moderate to major flooding event again for some of the same places that have had it in the past month. We have the potential of 1 inch of rain in Maryland, but south of St. Louis- there is a bullseye of 6 1/2 inches of rain. That is not good news, but will make news.
Climate Change or La Nina?
There have already been hints of the climate side with the flooding in March, however I am still not convinced. The Mississippi River Floods. A Lot! It is not a deep river, and is surround by a wide valley of low flatlands. That is topography that has been carved out by many thousands of years of frequent flooding. It floods when it rains, but especially with snow melt upstream. When you consider the near record snowfall this past winter in most of the upper midwest this past winter melting into the Mississippi, and combine the persistent storm track- it all results in too much in the same places. weather pattern reminds me of the flooding of 1993 along the Mississippi. It wasn't a significant La Nina Event, but a break from the strong El Nino's of the 1990s that lead to pattern of heavy rain from May through October and 20 Billion dollars in damage. While this recent La Nina is weakening, the already high water from snow melt and this rain will make things tense in this region through the Spring.
Tomorrow I will share some of Jim Schuyler's pictures of this season's Cherry Blossoms Festival. We should be left with seasonable temperatures this weekend.
Today ABC2 begins our relationship with the National Aquarium in Baltimore. Today I will be broadcasting the noon newscast on location to kick off the partnership. I will be standing next to a Toyota Prius they will be giving away this weekend at their Green Gala. Tickets may seem steep at $150, but it does afford the chance at a car that can get you close to 50 miles per gallon. For more on the Gala, check out the National Aquarium's web site.