Summer Finale. Gustav on the Gulf. Hanna Could Hit Us

Labor Day is often viewed as the end of summer. At least since it marks the end of the State Fair, and kids are back in school. Heck, even the leaves have started to turn- but I will have to save that discussion until this tropical week ends...
I heard a story on the radio early this morning on my way to work... The New York area beaches have had a dramatic drop in visitors this summer. The reporter mentioned the lack of 90 degree days as the reason...and I think we have had a similar set up down here. Does it seem like we have not had much of a summer? Here you can see that the number of 90F degree days have dropped off each month this summer. June- 9 days, July- 8 days, August- only 4 days.

Hurricane GUSTAV
Just a watching game now. You can track along on the Tropics tab above (main web site). My only question, as a broadcast journalist- all the coverage you will see on TV today will be from reporters and cameras in locations that were evacuated. How safe can they be?

Tropical Storm Hanna
Here is the overnight (spaghetti) 6 model plot. As you can see, there are a quite a few solutions, all of which take this on shore. The red line is the GFS, which brings it over Baltimore- after trekking through North Carolina and losing some strength. At the forward speed, this model does have it as a minimal Tropical Storm when reaching us. Below is the GFS Model for Friday night. You can see the center of the storm just to our south, and heading our way. This model is important since it is one of the primary models we use for our mid to long range weather, and can take over from the Tropical Models by adding in land data those don't incorperate. This is the second day I have seen this scenario, so it is worth watching for consistency. This is just one of many possibilities. As of now, we have at least 5 days to prepare...

'Fay' Here Today, Gustav Getting Stronger, Phoenix Flooding and Water Rescue Video

NOTE: I deleted this video, since I could not get it to load up on a pause. If you want the link, send ma and email...
What remains of the historic Tropical Storm Fay is just a wet storm. It's here today, and living up to it's image as a slow mover. Our threat of showers will last into Saturday. The afternoons will have more impressive returns on the radar, and that means a good chance of building thunderstorms. We need the rain, so suck it up- at least be happy your lawn gets to do just that.
This cold front in the Great Lakes will try to sweep everything through on Saturday, and if it times out properly, then we will have an improved Sunday along with Labor Day Monday. The 'end of summer' could give us sunshine and temps back into the 80s...

Gustav had weakened yesterday, but strengthening this morning. As of this morning, it was still a Tropical Storm. In fact it went against my theory, went got a push to the southwest. It is being influenced by High Pressure in the Gulf. While the latest track (follow along on the Tropics Page in the Seasonal tab above- on justinweathertalk.com) shows a target for New Orleans, I would be stunned it that worked out with that precision this far out. Odds are it will end up somewhere in the 300 mile range in the 5 day cone... but at least New Orleans is taking this seriously. That had similar warning for Katrina, but if I went further into- it would get political, and some of you won't like the real truth about the responsibility (it was the local jurisdiction's fault). Needless to say, expecting New Orleans to take this on the chin is a stretch. If and when this play out a little differently, can we finally accept that the long range models on Global Warming are not precise as well???? Computer Models are not perfect! Although on a rare occasion the blind squirrel finds a nut. Here you can see the outlook shows another storm that may get named Hanna today. Two more stretching back to the African coast. We are entering the most active 4 weeks of Hurricane season and it is living up to is expectation.

Monsoon Mania:
This is the time of year the desert gets wet. It's the end of summer when the winds shift and allow rain to fall in the southwest. Here is video (deleted on Aug 31- email me for the link)of Live coverage from our sister station in Phoenix showing a car stuck against a bridge with a dangerous rescue. Only 6 inches of moving water can pick up an SUV. This is obviously much higher, but what a rescue attempt. I can't understand why they went to commercial break???

Sunrise To Soaker

Here was the view I showed on TV at 6:15am. Official sunrise was 6:31am, but the pre-dawn light played a nice trick with the lightning and gave us this foreshadowing? Have you heard of the saying, "Red sky in morning, sailors take warning."?
That relates to the sunrise colors showing up like this with advancing high and mid level clouds ahead of a storm. Today the storm is the remains of Fay.
As that moves through the Appalachians, it is running up against the High Pressure that has brought us northeasterly winds and this cool dry feel to the air. Who will win today. The computer models are split. So much that the NGM model has us near 80F with sun, while the NAM has us at 72F with rain beginning close to noon. What to do? What to do?
I split the difference expecting rain Annapolis southbound, but dry Baltimore and north. To play it safe, just bring an umbrella with you, and know that I did my best.
This will be a tough call as the center of Low pressure will pass to our west. Over the next few days, a cool NE will hold us in the 70s, and the best chance of showers will be during the afternoons with developing daytime storms.

Tropical Storm Gustav
The storm clipped Haiti overnight and weakened below Hurricane Status. It will reorganize over the water today, and could reach Major Hurricane status at Category 3 or higher into the weekend. The computer models continue to try and keep this south of Cuba, then enter the Gulf of Mexico. The most disturbing outlook is the primary model the National Hurricane Center uses-the GFDL. Here (click image for larger view), the model is fastest, and locked in on New Orleans 120 hrs out with a Major Hurricane of a Category 3-, but weakening as it approaches land. HMMmmmmmmmmmmmmm The odds of this working out exactly as we see 5 days out is very slim. That is the good news. The bad news is that if this stay on the consensus track, it will have more warm water and likely reach that dreaded Major Hurricane Status. Stay tuned. Remember, our rain on the way, is from what used to be Tropical Storm Fay.

Falling Temps, Falling Rain, And A New Hurricane

This new air mass has dramatically dropped our temperatures. As it moved in this morning, I watched us go from near 70F into the 50s just north of the city. This northern branch has been treating us to an autumn preview since last week's High Pressure . The same one that caused Fay to stall in Florida. This one will move through, and allow the remnants of Fay to slip up to our west. The question is the where will Fay roll? There is a split in the models- some taking it up into Ohio, while the Canadian and GFS still trying to bring it over Maryland Thursday-Saturday. Working out those details will be the difference between the chance of showers, or steady rain. Stay tuned...

Another Hurricane
Reminder that the StormPulse Tracking Maps can now be found in the Seasonal Tab above (main web site)- Tropics link.
Here is the tracking map and stats as of 5am this morning. Gustav strengthened in a hurry, and has a lot of warm water to feed off of. The question is will it do so, or hurt itself with it's path. The National Hurricane Center outlook has a very large margin for error 5 days out at the end of the cone. According to this, Gustav can end up anywhere from Belize to Tampa, FL. I have circled the right side of the track considering the model bias I have noted with many of our recent storms. These tropical systems tend to stay on the right or east side of the forecast path. That would allow it to ride over Cuba, much like Fay did. That would hinder it's potential over the rugged mountains and keeping it away from the warm water it uses for fuel.
This is somewhat connected to what we have in place in the East.... If Fay's remnants are allowed to move farther east/closer to us, then that means the ridge of High Pressure we have will have less impact in any pressure holding Gustav on the southern fringe. That puts soggy Florida in the potential grip of another soaker. By that point, anything is possible. Which means we could watch the or East Coast for Gustav's future.

Quiet For Us, Catastrophic for Florida

Not much to say, but a boring a beautiful day. I did not post yesterday since I was on assignment in Harper's Ferry. Poor me, right? That story will air tomorrow- and it was a perfect time to visit. So for today, I will stay local and enjoy what we have. Clear, cool, and quiet.
It's this Canadian High Pressure bringing us beautiful weather, that is squashing Tropical Storm Fay. This same air mass will provide the steering current to bring it back west into the weekend. As of this morning, Melbourne officially had 7.97" of rain yesterday, but nearby areas have had up to 25 inches since the storm move in. Governor Christ has called it "Catastrophic Flooding". Unfortunately there is more on the way and it may be called biblical when all is said and done.The StormPulse Map is below, and now has it's own page in the Seasonal Tab Above (main web site)

Fay+Florida=Flooding

We will have another day near 90F with a small chance of a thundershowerThis morning, Fay made landfall in CAPE Coral as a Tropical Storm with winds of 60 mph. The good news is that it ran out of water (it's fuel source). The bad news, is that it is slowing down. As of 5am, it was moving at around 8mph. It should slow to 5 mph which will keep the heavy rain over the same areas longer. Remember the storm in Towson last week? This will be that on a much larger scale. Say compare my swimming skills to Phelps, and you'll get the idea. Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next 5 days... You can see a 8.4 inch total near Ft. Meyers. The light blue bulls eye east of Jacksonville is 25 inches! That yellow shade does put most of the state in 7 inches to over 12 inches. While a drought buster, it will be a major flood producer.
This is because the storm forecast is to cross Florida, get out over the Atlantic and turn back west near Jacksonville. This is yet more proof to my theory of the forecast track bias. This is far to the east of the original expectation. Any change in track, stalling, or earlier turn could significantly add to the rain totals.

Our Heat, A Solar Powered Tie, and T.S. Fay

A Little Bit of Heat
Today and tomorrow we will be within a few degrees of 90F. This is the bounce back I mentioned last week, when we had a preview of autumn chill. Often these swings feed off of each other. So now we get to other side of an active upper level flow- and allow some of that lat summer heat to spill in. While it is rather common to get temperatures in the 90s in late August, it does become less frequent as the sun angle get lower in the sky, and the days get shorter. Today's sunset for example, is at 7:57pm. In late June it was 8:36pm. In total, there is about 1 1/2 hours less sunlight than we had at the beginning of summer.

Solar Powered Tie

Two months after Father's Day, North Carolina State University researchers have developed a new technology to imprint solar panels. To show off ow thin and flexible they are, this tie was the best they could do. A fashion statement? If so, shouldn't it be green? It does come with a pocket for your cell phone or other power hungry device. Oh, by the way- don't most people work under florescent lights?



Tracking Fay- From StormPulse... (The active maps will be moved to the current day blog post)
Below is the latest info regarding Fay. Remember that you can control the image, so click and zoom to your hearts content. As of this morning, most of the rain was on the east side of the storm as it crossed Cuba. Over the warmer water this afternoon it may strengthen...but there are two things I would focus on:
First: The track compared to the forecast cone... I noticed a model bias a few years ago, and it proved itself as recently as Hurricane Dolly's jump north of Brownsville, and T.S. Edouard eluding Galveston- also to the north/east. So instead of a Key West path through Punta Gorda (Charlie's landfall in 2004), it might hug the coast, or go right up the peninsula.
Secondly: Remnant rain by Friday. While the National Hurricane Center Track is past Atlanta Georgia, the Mid Range Models such as the GFS and Canadian have Fay Stalling near Savanna, GA. That could be a major flooding event if it holds true, but hold that rain away from us. Eventually, when our protective bubble moves on, we could watch this system chug north up the coast. This on is worth watching for us.