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Monday, June 30, 2008

Put Ou The Fire

First: While we missed on most of the potential storms Sunday- Essex (Southeast Baltimore County) reported large hail with the one storm we did get in the afternoon.
The cold front a of this morning, was stalled over central Maryland. It will be a slow mover, and likely kick up more storms this afternoon. There is a large pool of cool air over the Great Lakes that will roll east. Our temperatures will cool down tomorrow. The computer models sometimes have a hard time handling this type of set up, but I see the likely hood that a lot of us north and west of the beltways stay in the 70s on Tuesday.

While there has been a lot of national coverage of the Midwest floods, and fires out west- we continue to have a rather uneventful June. Sure we had a few 90 degree days, but nothing out of the ordinary. Even the strong storms we have had, while damaging... have not been too widespread.
That is with the disclaimer that May did send us over the top with rainfall. This map shows how the spring translated into excessive rainfall or drought. It should be noted that the flooding along the Mississippi River in Iowa/Missouri/ Illinois was in part due to heavy late season snowfall. The eyesore in red- California having it's driest spring on record. If we averaged the extremes it would be close to normal rainfall. However, average is normal. This proves the extremes on one end are balanced by extremes on the other.
Secondly, but still important: On Friday a story came out from CNN, that say, " The North Pole might go ice free this summer." When did speculation become news? Oh, that's right, oil prices! But aren't we all complaining about that? If I said something like that in this blog- I would certainly become a story- just because it sounds impressive. The scientist quoted- Mark Serreze- speculates in the story, and says that this is not cyclical! I must argue that point! We don not have true ice records before 1979 at the north pole, but we do have archaeological records from nearby Greenland. In fact the dramatic change and cycles have affected the local population and culture.
Below is an online report...please keep this in mind. There has been patterns of growth and demise of cultures in the arctic circle. Records of livestock and crops have been uncovered in places where they could not survive today. Obviously there was a force at play that resulted in these temperature swings. Results that have been documented for the past 1500 years. Again my disclaimer: I don't discount some warming, but I discount humans causing it. I support alternative, clean, renewable energy, but not scaring people unjustly to get there. New reports often shock, but don't provide accurate, balanced reporting. That is the biggest shame of all.

A graphical description of changes in temperature in Greenland from 500 – 1990 A.D. based on analysis of the deep ice core from Greenland and some historical events. The annual temperature changes are shown vertical in ˚C. The numbers are to be read horizontal:
1. From 700 to 750 A.D. people belonging to the Late Dorset Culture move into the area around Smith Sound, Ellesmere Island and Greenland north of Thule.
2. Norse settlement of Iceland starts in the second half of the 9th century.
3. Norse settlement of Greenland starts just before the year 1000.
4. Thule Inuit move into northern Greenland in the 12th century.
5. Late Dorset culture disappears from Greenland in the second half of the 13th century.
6. The Western Settlement disappears in mid 14th century.
7. In 1408 is the Marriage in Hvalsey, the last known written document on the Norse in Greenland.
8. The Eastern Settlement disappears in mid 15th century.
9. John Cabot is the first European in the post-Iceland era to visit Labrador - Newfoundland in 1497.
10. “Little Ice Age” from ca 1600 to mid 18th century. 11. The Norwegian priest, Hans Egede, arrives in Greenland in 1721.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Hot Town- Summer In the City...

...Back of my neck getting dirty and gritty- The Loving Spoonful has that right. It's day's like this that reinforce why I love snow. At least when it's cold you can pile on more clothes. Until you show me how I can unzip my skin, no way I will enjoy this. Then pile on pollution with high sun angle and light winds, and that ground level ozone makes it unhealthy to be outside. We haven't had too may of these this year, but it was just a matter of time. However, like the past heat wave a few weeks ago- no records will be set and it will only last about 3 days. Not too bad for Baltimore standards.
I was looking at the upper level maps to try and find a trigger for afternoon storms, and there is not much to show. We will just have to wait for a Bay Breeze boundary or mountain storms to develop in the heat. Anything that does develop will be a slow mover- so some luck lawns could get soaked. Otherwise, I'm glad I put out the sprinkler last night. Well, my lawn is glad.
Relief- at the BEACH


Next week, we'll get back to a below normal temperature pattern. I'll have more on that relief over the weekend...I've got to give you a reason to check back.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Return of Summer Heat , Cool Air in Retreat

Just to get you in the mood... I found this video of two dogs going for a swim in Arizona. well one dog is swimming, the other is going for a ride...


This morning a complex of storms was holding over flooded areas in the Iowa, Illinois, Missouri area of the Mississippi River. This was on the northern fringe of a warm front- marking the return of the heat and cool air in retreat! There is a small chance that the remnant wave will ride along the boundary and reach us overnight as the heat ridge builds in. The other side will hold hgih temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dew point temperatures will climb into the mid 60s and near 70F. That is not too oppressive, but it will feel more sticky and build afternoon thunderstorms. This will last into the weekend.
Oh, I can't wait!

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Fear Factor: James Hansen Style

Yesterday was the 20th anniversary of the speech James Hansen gave Congress about Global Warming, so he gave it again. He is considered the Godfather of this issue. There is no mention of the sketchy background to this speech.
First: It was planned on a date that was historically one of the hottest in DC. sounds like the July Concert Gore put on.
Second: Hansen and supporters left the windows open the night before, so the air conditioning would not work well during the speech. So while the talk was about heat, people, and most importantly the press were sweating. HMMmmmmmmmmmmmm!
By the way, Hansen's proposed warming has been revised a few times- down! Dr. Patrick Michael's from the University of Virgina documented this. The full report can be found here. In 1988- Hansen called for a global temperature rise of 0.34C in the next decade. It did warm, but only 0.11C. That is 1/3 of the expected warming, and a sign of a few revisions pointing out that the alarmists may have embellished their expectations, and may be doing so today as well.
Hansen is also dubbed NASA Warming Scientist. However, there is another NASA scientist involved in the Climate Change Debate, who does not get the same press coverage. Dr. Roy Spencer was NASA's Climate expert responsible for developing a computer modeling system for deriving temperature from satellites. The IPCC is using his work, but before he corrected his own mistakes. Once Spencer accounted for precipitation in climate modeling, the result for Global Warming was much lower. Unfortunately that did not support the environmental cause, so it was ignored. Dr. Roy Spencer is the author of Climate Confusion. Here is a link to his web page on Nature's Thermostat. Below is a clip from 20/20 interviewing him and other climate experts who argue with scientific evidence that Global Warming is not nearly as bad as portrayed by the media, and how they have been shunned by the press. Honestly: What is happening with this debate, not allowing the public to hear evidence for both arguments is a lack of honest journalism and ignoring the basic scientific method. That is why I often call it the Global Warming Theory. It is not proven, but driven by fear. Sure, we need a more aggressive energy policy, but is it worth scaring kids and falsely educating the public? I agree that the government could have and should have done more to get us on a more energy independent track. That includes the issues of today with local drilling, renewable energy from solar and wind, and tighter efficiency standards. I grew up in NY State which was decades ahead of places like Maryland in recycling as well. So I am happy that people or more environmentally conscious, but there is a lack of honest information displayed in most media outlets because the truth is not as extreme and may very well be natural and not our fault. Check out the EPA and do a comparison of air quality from the 1970s to today and you will be amazed how much we have cleaned up.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Hippy Dippy Weatherman- Dead

The forecast tonight: Dark
"It's 8:00 in Los Angeles, It's 9:00 in Denver, It's 10:00 in Chicago. In Baltimore it's 4:42"

By now most of you have heard that comedian George Carlin passed away. While I can't repeat most of his 'stuff' here since kids check my blog, he was a man who risked his career to push the limit and changed the face of comedy. In all of his censored glory, he was also one of the first to do a bit about a weatherman~ albeit it a little insulting.

Severe Storms Potential: Slight Risk

Combine cold air aloft due to a stubborn upper level low in eastern Canada with the warm humid air in place, and you have an environment ready to produce more storms. Add in high sun and mid day heat, the result of those storms will may turn severe. For those of you with meteorology backgrounds- you'll note two things to look for when forecasting severe weather:
First is CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy.
The GFS has us above the limit at 1500 J/Kg, but the NAM is lower at around 11 J/Kg.
Lifted Index in negative numbers indicates more potential. The larger negative, the more severe the risk. The GFS has BWI at -4.7, while the NAM ranges from -3.6- to -4.0. One interesting aspect of reading extracted NAM data is the forecast hail size at 0.81". That would be in the severe range and qualify A Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued this afternoon. Look out for lines of storms to fire up as mid level impulses focus the energy. You can follow along on my Storm Page along with TV Graphics in the tabs above.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Beyond The Boardwalk- Save Our Shores

Today (Saturday) I will be at the National Aquarium in Baltimore. Here is a list of the weekend activities: Click for more information:










Did you know that we all live in a watershed? It basically means that all of our water from rain, lawn watering, farming, etc., will drain in to the Chesapeake Bay. Think of the flooding along the Mississippi now and the reports of Toxic Sludge, and you'll see where I am going with this. In fact, did you know that the increase in corn for ethanol has resulted in a deadly result in the water? This corn uses more nitrogen for fertilizer that drains down the Mississippi and into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a dead zone. Click the link for more.
Today, I have placed a link to ABC2's Save Our Shores page, in conjunction with StormCenter Comm. You'll see that link along the top with my other pages.
You can start to educate yourself about the impact you might have on our watershed. While the talk of pollution often is directed to climate change these days- that debate will continue for sure, but the result of our actions on the local waterways is more immediate and indisputable.
If you can not make it down to the Aquarium, you can find out much more on the web site. Below is the image you will see on that page. Click for full link.

Friday, June 20, 2008

Longest Day (light) of the Year

Today marks the end of spring and the beginning of summer. At least from and Astronomical perspective. Meteorological summer began on June 1st. But it's 6:59pm that will mark summer for the northern hemisphere and also the longest day of the year. Sure, some wise guy will say this the day we return from Daylight Savings to Standard Time we add a full hour to the day...but come on.
In Baltimore the official sunrise was 5:41am and sunset salted for 8:36pm. That gives us 14 hours and 55 minutes of daylight. While the sun angle slowly gets lower in the sky and the days slowly get shorter... there is a lag in temperature. Much like non is the high spot of the sun, but the warmest temperature is between 4pm and 5pm. The Warmest days of the year are about 1 month away- in the middle of July.
Average High Temperatures: June 20th: 84F July 20th: 88F August 20th: 85F

Thursday, June 19, 2008

What Energy Conservation?

I know I have been hard on Al Gore, and some of you (only some) have not been happy about that. Well besides a movie that holds numerous mistakes, and exploiting a cause for personal profit, there is one more thing the former "Next President" should answer...
A report came out yesterday about his energy consumption, and it's gone up. Last year, a ridiculous utility bill for his Tennessee mansion last year that got public scrutiny. It was $30,000- about 20 times the national average. That for a man that promotes energy conservation, and he has other homes that just that. Not only do I find this hypocritical, I find it hard to accept that he gets awards for a documentary with false facts and unlimited press, but this is ignored. To find out more on his 10% utility bill increase, read here. For the record, this does include his attempt to switch over to green energy.

Last Full Day of Spring...

... and it will feel like it. Personally, I think this is great weather. I know some of you likes that summer heat, but not me. Give me a 70 degree day anytime... well except in the winter when it should snow almost everyday. This is a little below our normal High of 84F. In fact the last few mornings we dropped into the lower 50s~ running 10 degrees below normal. That somewhat balances out our heat wave from two weeks ago. All in the Law of Averages.
We will return to the 80s as summer begins tomorrow, but another storm could reach us by Sunday. I'll have more on that tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Beyond the Boardwalk...

Our cool, unsettle pattern will continue today. The sky will quickly go from clear to mostly cloudy- giving a hint of early spring in the air. Follow along with the latest maps on my TV Graphics Page...tab above on main web site.

Today I will be broadcasting the noon weather from The National Aquarium. This week's theme is Beyond the Boardwalk. While during the summer, we would like to think of hot days, cool water, maybe Thrasher's Fries and a snowball...there is that nagging issue of the environment that we can't seem to escape. Well, think about it... If you want that ocean to clean when you get there, there has to be some though about protecting it. Not just Atlantic Coast, but all of our shorelines. Did you know that Maryland has the largest coastline in the US? My former fellow co-professor in our Climate Change course- Tom Hopkins- liked to point out that when you consider all of the nooks and crannies of the land boarding the Chesapeake add up to thousands of miles of coastline.

We live in a large watershed. That watershed is the nation's largest estuary. All have direct impacts from pollution. This weekend I will be at the Beyond the Boardwalk event at the National Aquarium. I am also working with our partners at StormCenter Communications to get our web site up to speed relating to all of your watershed questions, and more....
This image is an example of some of the interactive features available. Check back by Friday for more on our shores....

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Storms Out, Temperatures Pulling Back

The complex of storms that erupted Monday did dump some hefty rain in Baltimore- but the big storms stayed away this time. Look at the numerous hail reports in norther PA and NY states. However it was nearby DC and Virgina that got nailed! There was a ten that collapsed on the Washington Mall that injured 10 people yesterday and the Nationals Ballpark had recorded a 62mph wind gust. Baseball like objects were falling far away in Virginia. Highlighted on the map here- 1 mile north of Ruckersville- hail of 4.25" was reported. That's impressive!

A much cooler weather pattern will prevail thanks to an upper level Low in Ontario, Canada. This is more like an early spring. This Upper Level Low (500mb) will meander for the next few days and provide 'spokes' of energy that can spark afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The timing of these spokes or vort maxes will determine what we get. If they arrive overnight or in the morning, then nothing more than clouds could be the case. If we get one in the afternoon or early evening, then thunderstorms will pop up. Despite the fact that we will have cooler temperatures in the 70s, there contrast to much colder air aloft can produce some severe weather with large hail. Generally it will be isolated in nature, but something to watch this week.
Record Low Temperatures?
It's a stretch, but it is possible. Here is what we may challenge over the next few days:
Wednesday: 48F June 18, 1959
Thursday: 48F June 19, 1954
Friday: 52F June 20, 2005

Monday, June 16, 2008

About Face!

Wow!~It's been 5 days since my last post so thanks for still checking in. It does look like we are about to end our summer preview. The same pattern that had locked in pre-summer heat in the east and flooding rain in the mid-west... will shift east.
Just to get your attention, here is a dramatic photo from AP's Lori Mehman from Orchard, IO on June 10th.
That pattern does shift itself east today in a diminished form. While the weather has been wild, it has been essentially the same areas that continued to get hit, that has made the problem as bad as it is. Imagine getting hit with storms like we had last Tuesday- for four or five days in a row. That sums it up.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
Today's cold front will bring some strong storms for us, but more importantly it will bring in the long awaited trough to balance out our heat.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined us in a moderate risk for severe weather. The cold front was not well defined this morning, but there is evidence of dramatic cooling aloft. That means that once the daily heating gets the storms started, they can continue to grow quickly and dramatically. Most of the energy will be just north, but the primary threat will be strong straight line winds and hail. Considering the damage in Lutherville last Tuesday, and Anne Arundel County the Wednesday before... it does not take much to cause problems. One of the deceiving facts is that straight line winds can have winds stronger than some tornadoes... and doe more wide spread damage. Especially in areas under a micro burst. Hail from storms yesterday were in the order of 1 inch, so it could warrant some watches and warnings this afternoon. My Storm Page will have the latest.
Here is Wednesday Evening's 500mb map showing the trough in the east that will keep our temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal. This is an environment where sunny mornings turn to partly cloudy afternoons and little disturbances can spark some strong storms. The ridge out west will mean extreme heat and increased wild fire threat. Fortunately the nation's heartland will have dry weather and receding water in the mix.

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Severe Storms.Cooling Off: Locally! Globally?

Severe weather did break out yesterday. Hail over 1 inch was reported in Baltimore County's Lutherville and Timonium- along with many other reports seen here. Our morning show audio engineer was stuck at home due to damage near Northwood Dr. He called me this morning saying, "100 ft trees were snapped, light poles gone, hails dents in his siding, and the power meter was stripped off of his house".
In fact at one point 70,000 people lost power after the storms. That improved to 18,000 powerless homes this morning at 4:30.
This is part of the 439 wind and hail reports across the nation Tuesday.
If anything- this was in the forecast and most people were somewhat prepared even if scared.

Cooling Off Locally
All of this talk about the nation's extreme weather, and we had a little taste the the hot side of things. However, we should consider ourselves lucky. In the 4 days stretch of 90F+ temperatures, NO RECORDS were either set or tied in Baltimore.
So essentially- while the heat came early, it was not worthy of making the almanac.
It will get lost in time, much like the #2 wettest and #11 coolest May we just experienced.
Today: Temperatures will still be above normal, but a drop of about 10 degrees in the afternoon. It will feel much better.

Cooling Off Globally:
I got a long email forwarded t me from Meteorologists Tony Pann and Topper Shut from WUSA in Washington. For the purpose of space and time, I've just posted the most recent article in Science Daily- discussing the 'lack' of sunspot activity and how that may already be translating to Global Cooling:

Science Daily: Scientists not sure why Sun 'continues to be dead' June 9, 2008

Excerpt: The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites. That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment." The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual. "It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. [] The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why. "It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance. Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Heat Wave About To Break!


This should be the last day of this stretch.
The last Heat Advisory.
The last Code Red Ozone Alert.

Guess what? We have not set or even tied any records here in Baltimore with this heat wave. Today- we do have a shot, as a cold front approaches with the final surge of warm air ahead of it. The record we are aiming for is 97F set back in 1964. The bigger story will be the potential for severe storms this evening as the cold front will bring this heat wave to an end. Wednesday's temperatures will be about 10 degrees colder. Honestly though, this is all part of the high amplitude jet which was also responsible for the very cool and wet May. The huge ridge in the east is contrasted with an equally huge trough in the west. Seattle just experienced their coldest June week on record. Their nearby Cascade Mountains are under a Heavy Snow Warning today. A general 6 inches of fluff is expected with up to 1 foot in the higher elevations. Doesn't that sound nice today?
For the latest hourly maps of temperatures and heat index- scroll down to yesterday's post.

Monday, June 9, 2008

Burned...

I got burned on Saturday. I normally don't have that problem- but cutting the grass in the morning stung me more than that hornet's nest I disturbed last month.
We got burned this weekend- but have not set a record yet:
Saturday's 95F missed the record of 96F
Sunday's 93F missed the record of 97F
Today's record is 98F set back in 1933. That is a 75 year old mark- and again proving that there was a hot period in that decade that still holds on the books. Imagine dealing with that heat and not having air conditioning. I do want to thank John who commented over the weekend about my call from May 12th- that we were due for a heat wave to balance out the cool spring. I'm glad I have some loyal readers who can vouch for me....
Good Morning America- to no surprise -lead this morning's show with the weather. Also, to no surprise- they had a sound bite of someone blaming global warming for this heat wave. How does that theory explain last month's chill? While we discuss breaking long standing records, what is their explanation for records back in the 1920s and 30s? Seriously! It gets hot in June and July. How irresponsible to use every hot stretch for this agenda. This type of reporting is not a good sample of the meteorological community, and is a disservice to the public. If they want to speculate on the reason for this heat wave ( the big ridge and trough in the jet stream), then get someone with another opinion. There are plenty besides me...
For comparison, check out this Baltimore historic heat wave from 83 years ago. Below I have posted the Live Active Temps and Heat Index Maps...


Friday, June 6, 2008

Instant Summer: Dangerous Heat

I was saying. "Since this is the first heat wave of the season..". The thing is, it doesn't matter. If it was just 90F, that would pass... but mid to upper 90s and high humidity, well it's just brutal!
If anything, this will get bumped to a warning if we reach the index at 110F or greater.
After a busy weeks with storms, and the schedule shift along with 6 day weeks- I am taking a break for the weekend. Below is a Heat Index Chart. With temperatures expected to be near 95F and Dew Points around 70F- that will actually make it feel like 120F according to the chart below. I have also loaded an active Heat Index map. This should update hourly... You can find the hourly temperatures and other images on my TV Graphics Page. Also live weather on my County Spotlights in the tabs above....
Please, stay cool and don't forget to give lots of water to your kids and pets...

Thursday, June 5, 2008

A Delay for a Day... Then Bring On The Heat!

Wednesday Storm Update:
NOT A TORNADO in Severna Park- Declared Microburst.
CONFIRMED TORNADO in Chesapeake Beach.

For more on the NWS storm report- click here.

The old boundary is fading away, but there is a hint of it that has slipped to our south- allowing a cooler easterly flow. We had that kick in during the afternoon.
These maps are from Thursday evening. They show the contrast of the cooler easterly wind vs. the heat lingering just to our south. That is a 20 degree spread!

Forecasting for Friday is going to be tough since we can range from the upper 70s to near 90F. Still the big story will be the weekend, so let's jump right to that.Here is my forecast for the weekend.- thanks to Emily Gracey for the graphic.... Add in high humidity and this being the first shot of the season, and Excessive Heat Warnings may be posted. Start saving up- your BGE bill is about to go up!

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Beat up by Storms

I must say that at least this worked out close to what was expected. night was the precursor for the numerous rounds that hit today (Wednesday)- I expected severe weather, read our moderate risk from the Storm Prediction Center, and saw the TornadoThat MCS I posted about last Watch posted at 1pm. Here's how my day went from there:
Just before 3pm- I got in to work and realized that I forgot to shave. As I grab my backup electric razor- I saw the line moving in out of VA, and posted warnings. Our Tornado Warning followed soon after and I warned the newsroom what was to come.
3:10pm-ish: First Live cut in. It was about 2 1/2 minutes to get out the details> I go off to get graphics ready, and get backup from the newsroom.

From there it's a blur. Once we got on again, we did not go off until 6:30pm. There were non stop warnings in the viewing area through this post at 10:30pm. Here is an image of a house in Owings Mills. The neighbor took the photo, and the owner is not thrilled that he sent it to ABC2. If anything it should help with insurance.
Tree-mendous damage and speaking of blurs... below is the Storm Report from NWS Sterling. It goes on for a while. Remember to check out my Storm Page, as we could do it again Thursday. The only question is whether we get a back door front in Friday with an east wind to delay the insurgence of heat. I'll tackle that tomorrow.
That Storm Report from Wednesday:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM TSTM WND DMG SENECA ROCKS 38.83N 79.38W
06/04/2008 PENDLETON WV COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN

0130 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODSTOCK 38.88N 78.52W
06/04/2008 SHENANDOAH VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN AND ROOF/SIDING DAMAGE TO HOUSE.

0133 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT STORM 39.28N 79.24W
06/04/2008 GRANT WV UNKNOWN

TREES DOWN AT COON MINE ROAD AND ROUTE 50.

0135 PM TSTM WND DMG ROMNEY 39.35N 78.76W
06/04/2008 HAMPSHIRE WV COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND GARAGES AROUND ROMNEY.

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 W CAPON BRIDGE 39.30N 78.59W
06/04/2008 HAMPSHIRE WV TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

0210 PM TSTM WND GST STRASBURG 38.99N 78.36W
06/04/2008 M58.00 MPH SHENANDOAH VA MESONET


SANDY HOOK ES PER AWS MESONET.

0212 PM TSTM WND DMG GORE 39.26N 78.33W
06/04/2008 FREDERICK VA TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG FRONT ROYAL 38.92N 78.18W
06/04/2008 WARREN VA TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED OFF

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG CROSS JUNCTION 39.32N 78.29W
06/04/2008 FREDERICK VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN BLOCKING ROADS

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG LURAY 38.66N 78.46W
06/04/2008 PAGE VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN. SEVERAL HOUSES AND BARNS DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. A MILE AND A HALF TRACK OF DAMAGE THROUGH TOWN
FROM THE HIGH SCHOOL TO THE EAST.

0228 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW BUNKER HILL 39.32N 78.07W
06/04/2008 BERKELEY WV TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN. TREE ON HOUSE ON SAM MASON RD.


0240 PM TSTM WND DMG MARTINSBURG 39.46N 77.97W
06/04/2008 BERKELEY WV TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG GAINESVILLE 38.80N 77.61W
06/04/2008 PRINCE WILLIAM VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOPS OF 4 TREES - 12 INCH DIAMETER - TORN OFF ON LOG MILL
RD.

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG ROUND HILL 39.13N 77.77W
06/04/2008 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN IN ROUND HILL AND PHILAMONT.

0243 PM TSTM WND DMG DELAPLANE 38.92N 77.92W
06/04/2008 FAUQUIER VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF OFF HOUSE. POWER LINES DOWN. POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD.

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 E MIDDLEBURG 38.97N 77.59W
06/04/2008 LOUDOUN VA NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES DOWN IN GILBERTS CORNER

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG KNOXVILLE 39.33N 77.66W
06/04/2008 FREDERICK MD TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND LINES DOWN

0250 PM TSTM WND GST DULLES INTERNATIONAL AI 38.94N 77.46W
06/04/2008 M59.00 MPH LOUDOUN VA ASOS

0252 PM TSTM WND GST MANASSAS 38.75N 77.49W
06/04/2008 M62.00 MPH CITY OF MANASSAS VA MESONET

BALDWIN ES PER AWS.

0253 PM TSTM WND DMG CENTREVILLE 38.85N 77.44W
06/04/2008 FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES AND POWERS LINES DOWN IN CENTREVILLE AND VIENNA.

0253 PM TSTM WND DMG CENTREVILLE 39.04N 76.07W
06/04/2008 QUEEN ANNE'S MD TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN

0255 PM TSTM WND GST RESTON 38.95N 77.35W
06/04/2008 M63.00 MPH FAIRFAX VA MESONET

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BUILDING PER AWS.

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ASHBURN 39.04N 77.48W
06/04/2008 M61.00 MPH LOUDOUN VA MESONET

STONE HILL MS IN BRAMBLETON PER AWS.

0255 PM TSTM WND GST BRISTOW 38.72N 77.53W
06/04/2008 M60.00 MPH PRINCE WILLIAM VA MESONET

BRISTOW RUN ES PER AWS.

0255 PM TSTM WND GST HERNDON 38.97N 77.39W
06/04/2008 M58.00 MPH FAIRFAX VA MESONET

HUTCHISON ES PER AWS.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE HERNDON 38.98N 77.38W
06/04/2008 FAIRFAX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON YOUNG DIARY
CT.

0255 PM TSTM WND GST MANASSAS AIRPORT 38.72N 77.52W
06/04/2008 M62.00 MPH CITY OF MANASSAS VA AWOS

0258 PM TSTM WND DMG CHARLES TOWN 39.29N 77.86W
06/04/2008 JEFFERSON WV TRAINED SPOTTER

TOPS OF TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

0304 PM TSTM WND DMG MANASSAS 38.75N 77.49W
06/04/2008 CITY OF MANASSAS VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE ON PICKUP TRUCK

0305 PM TORNADO FALLS CHURCH 38.88N 77.17W
06/04/2008 CITY OF FALLS CHUR VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORT AT ANNANDALE ROAD

0308 PM TSTM WND GST FORT BELVOIR 38.71N 77.15W
06/04/2008 E64.00 MPH FAIRFAX VA AWOS

FORT BELVOIR DAVISON ARMY AIRFIELD.

0310 PM TSTM WND DMG ANNANDALE 38.83N 77.21W
06/04/2008 FAIRFAX VA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** TREE FELL ON MOVING VEHICLE.

0311 PM TSTM WND GST FREDERICK 39.43N 77.42W
06/04/2008 M76.00 MPH FREDERICK MD MESONET

NEW LIFE CHRISTIAN SCHOOL PER AWS.

0311 PM TSTM WND GST FREDERICK 39.43N 77.42W
06/04/2008 M65.00 MPH FREDERICK MD MESONET

CRESTWOOD MS PER AWS.

0311 PM TSTM WND GST MIDDLETOWN 39.44N 77.54W
06/04/2008 M64.00 MPH FREDERICK MD MESONET

MIDDLETOWN PRIMARY SCHOOL PER AWS.

0312 PM TSTM WND DMG VIENNA 38.90N 77.26W
06/04/2008 FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN NEAR LAWYERS ROAD AND UPHAM PL.


0313 PM TSTM WND GST REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT 38.85N 77.04W
06/04/2008 M59.00 MPH ARLINGTON VA ASOS

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG DICKERSON 39.22N 77.42W
06/04/2008 MONTGOMERY MD TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN AT ELMER SCHOOL ROAD

0315 PM TSTM WND GST REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT 38.85N 77.04W
06/04/2008 M0.00 MPH ARLINGTON VA ASOS

51 KNOTS

0315 PM TSTM WND DMG CLINTON 38.76N 76.90W
06/04/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. WIND GUST ESTIMATED 60
TO 70 MPH.

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG EDGEWATER 38.96N 76.55W
06/04/2008 ANNE ARUNDEL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCKVILLE 39.08N 77.15W
06/04/2008 MONTGOMERY MD EMERGENCY MNGR

30 SEPARATE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON HOUSES.

0326 PM TSTM WND GST WASHINGTON 38.91N 77.02W
06/04/2008 M70.00 MPH DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC MESONET

WASHINGTON NATIONALS PARK PER AWS.

0326 PM TSTM WND GST GAITHERSBURG 39.14N 77.22W
06/04/2008 M59.00 MPH MONTGOMERY MD MESONET

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF STANDARDS BUILDING PER AWS.

0327 PM TSTM WND DMG LOVETTSVILLE 39.27N 77.64W
06/04/2008 LOUDOUN VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO LARGE TREES DOWN AT ASH GEORGE ROAD. ONE LARGE TREE
UPROOTED.

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG WALDORF 38.64N 76.90W
06/04/2008 CHARLES MD TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND FENCES DOWN

0332 PM TSTM WND GST ANDREWS AFB 38.80N 76.87W
06/04/2008 M0.00 MPH PRINCE GEORGES MD ASOS

57 KNOTS

0338 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBIA 39.20N 76.86W
06/04/2008 HOWARD MD TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE TREE DOWN AND SEVERAL TREES DAMAGED. WIND GUST 47
MPH.

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG LARGO 38.88N 76.83W
06/04/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN.

0345 PM TORNADO HUNTINGTOWN 38.62N 76.61W
06/04/2008 CALVERT MD TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN -- PRELIMINARY.

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG EDGEWATER 38.96N 76.55W
06/04/2008 ANNE ARUNDEL MD AMATEUR RADIO

TREE AND POWER LINES DOWN ON BEACH ROAD.

0345 PM TSTM WND DMG FAIRFAX 38.85N 77.30W
06/04/2008 CITY OF FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN THORUGHOUT COUNTY. NO METRO SERVICE FROM EAST
FALLS TO WEST FALLS CHURCH.


0345 PM TSTM WND DMG ARNOLD 39.04N 76.50W
06/04/2008 ANNE ARUNDEL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES ON CRESTON RD

0346 PM TORNADO HUNTINGTOWN 38.62N 76.61W
06/04/2008 CALVERT MD TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN -- PRELIMINARY.

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG WASHINGTON 38.91N 77.02W
06/04/2008 DISTRICT OF COLUMB DC TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN SOUTH OF DUPONT CIRCLE

0352 PM TSTM WND GST BALTIMORE 39.30N 76.61W
06/04/2008 E0.00 MPH BALTIMORE CITY MD TRAINED SPOTTER

65 MPH WIND GUST RECORDED IN NORTHERN BALTIMORE CITY.

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG SPARROWS POINT 39.22N 76.48W
06/04/2008 BALTIMORE MD NEWSPAPER

CRANE COLLAPSED

0526 PM HAIL CULPEPER 38.47N 78.00W
06/04/2008 E0.88 INCH CULPEPER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL CULPEPER 38.47N 78.00W
06/04/2008 E1.75 INCH CULPEPER VA AMATEUR RADIO

0622 PM HAIL CHANCELLORSVILLE 38.30N 77.63W
06/04/2008 E1.00 INCH SPOTSYLVANIA VA AMATEUR RADIO

0623 PM HAIL 4 W FREDERICKSBURG 38.30N 77.56W
06/04/2008 E0.88 INCH SPOTSYLVANIA VA AMATEUR RADIO

0628 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N HARRISONBURG 38.45N 78.87W
06/04/2008 M62.00 MPH CITY OF HARRISONBU VA MESONET

0631 PM HAIL FREDERICKSBURG 38.30N 77.49W
06/04/2008 E0.75 INCH CITY OF FREDERICKS VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0636 PM HAIL KING GEORGE 38.27N 77.18W
06/04/2008 E0.88 INCH KING GEORGE VA EMERGENCY MNGR

0639 PM TSTM WND GST ELKTON 38.41N 78.62W
06/04/2008 M69.00 MPH ROCKINGHAM VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0641 PM HAIL CULPEPER 38.47N 78.00W
06/04/2008 E0.75 INCH CULPEPER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0643 PM TSTM WND DMG MCGAHEYSVILLE 38.37N 78.73W
06/04/2008 ROCKINGHAM VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0645 PM HAIL CROWNSVILLE 39.02N 76.60W
06/04/2008 E0.50 INCH ANNE ARUNDEL MD AMATEUR RADIO

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG ELKTON 38.41N 78.62W
06/04/2008 ROCKINGHAM VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0646 PM HAIL CULPEPER 38.47N 78.00W
06/04/2008 E1.00 INCH CULPEPER VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM HAIL DAVIDSONVILLE 38.92N 76.63W
06/04/2008 E0.75 INCH ANNE ARUNDEL MD TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY HAIL.

0722 PM TSTM WND GST ANDREWS AFB 38.80N 76.87W
06/04/2008 M66.00 MPH PRINCE GEORGES MD OTHER FEDERAL

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSE SUMERDUCK 38.45N 77.72W
06/04/2008 FAUQUIER VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON SUMERDUCK RD AND RODGERS
FORD RD.

0735 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW GARRISONVILLE 38.47N 77.46W
06/04/2008 STAFFORD VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ACROSS RT 648 1 MILE NORTH OF RT 630.

0745 PM HAIL 3 NE STAFFORD 38.45N 77.37W
06/04/2008 M0.75 INCH STAFFORD VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG HARTWOOD 38.40N 77.57W
06/04/2008 STAFFORD VA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE...RELAYED BY NWS WAKEFIELD.

0804 PM TORNADO BEL ALTON 38.46N 76.98W
06/04/2008 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

PRELIMINARY REPORT...TO BE SURVEYED.

0815 PM HAIL KING GEORGE 38.27N 77.18W
06/04/2008 E0.75 INCH KING GEORGE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY HAIL.

0844 PM TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON PARK 38.26N 76.45W
06/04/2008 M52.00 MPH ST. MARYS MD AWOS

PATUXENT RIVER NAS PER METAR.

0941 PM HAIL FOUR MILE FORK 38.25N 77.48W
06/04/2008 E0.75 INCH SPOTSYLVANIA VA AMATEUR RADIO

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

M.C.S.- Meso Scale Convective System

Not much time to write this evening- but as I mentioned in this morning's (last night's) post we will have some strong to severe storms move through overnight. The timing for this system is between midnight and 6am. An MCS is more like a vort max we would follow in the winter to produce snow squalls. This one feeds off of more humid air and results in locally heavy rain, lightning/thunder, strong winds- etc....
Please go to my main web site (link above) if you are not there now- and find the Storm Page link. there you can the local radar and lightning tracker, in addition to watches and warnings that may be posted....

Monday, June 2, 2008

Dirty Sky When We Lose The High...

Today you will notice more high cirrus clouds in the sky. This is often the first sign of a change in weather... and this is no exception. The same High Pressure responsible for Monday's great weather- slides off of the coast and allows a wind shift to warm us up. But we have to look at the upper level winds to see where these clouds are coming from... Here is the 300mb (roughly 30,000 ft) map. Here the wind flow becomes quite apparent- from the northwest.
The cluster of storms I circled in the Great Lakes actually threw it's clouds southeast in our direction overnight. More showers in the Ohio Valley are responsible for clouding things in VA and NC.
So today we will see clouds mix in- but the high altitude cirrus should allow the sun through. As the gradually increase by evening and overnight- it will mark the showers getting closer and holding out temperatures up.
From here on in, our nights will get progressively more muggy and stay in the mid 60s.


Tuesday night could get tricky as a short wave will swing through and could provide some late night storms. This is the type of event that can actually develop after sundown and east of the mountains as it does interact with some more humid air. Any hint of a southeast surface wind would be our trigger. This 700mb map shows this swinging through MD after midnight and by daybreak. What happens with this could set the stage for what follows on Wednesday itself. If we get clobbered early, it could stabilize the atmosphere. However there may be more support for afternoon convection. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday, so stay tuned.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Hurricane Season...

And so it begins... or began this is- 12 hours ahead of schedule. The Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1- November 30. This year it got a 1 day head start with Arthur.
The official National Hurricane Center Outlook shows a chance of slightly above normal activity. We are in the middle of a 30 year cycle of increased activity. The last active period was from the 1930s to 1960s. We had a lull in the '70s and '80s. The recent spike began in 1995- see the chart below. You'll also notice that spikes are about the same. The chart only goes out to that monster 2005 year, and does not include the decline in the past 2 season.
So, does this early arrival mean anything? Well, not really. While The infamous 2005 season did begin June 8th with Arlene. However, May has historically had 19 Tropical Storms. While the chart below shows that is less than 5% of the time- it does not signify how the rest of the season will go. What is a staple, is the month of September. Thanks to the peak of Atlantic water temperatures in this month, the most hurricanes will form- feeding off of that heat.
Here is the 2008 list. Arthur has already been crossed off....