Rain, Rain, On The Way. It Will Be Here Saturday.

That large storm I mentioned yesterday, is still on target to make for a wet start to the weekend. Here is the generic 1-3 day rainfall forecast from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center). These are mainly generated from the GFS model. You can see the heavy rain expected to our north and west, while Baltimore falls in the 'near 1 inch' range.
Here is the break down for Baltimore from a few of the models:

GFS: 0.85"
NGM: 0.41" (through Sat evening)
NAM: 1.37"

So a wide range to pick from, but a solid shot of a soaker. The models are calling for us to hit the low 60s, but i have a hard time expecting us to warm up that much with an easterly flow, and the cool damp air already in place. If this was a winter set up, we would be calling this a 'cold air dam', and have the physics of a phase change from snow/ice and rain to deal with. Either way, I went 60F for Saturday on TV, but there is a good chance that we spend most of the day in the 50s. It should be noted that winds will be strong out of the east and southeast over 30 knots.. translating to about 35 mph. That will make for a raw day, but only one day. The wind will be strong on Sunday, but it will clear out.
I know I promised another winter long range outlook. I will get that online later today- so check back then or over the weekend. On a side note, there still is hope for flurries next week close to home.

Record Snow in Binghamton, NY. Rain record getting close for Baltimore.

Reminder: My new Enhanced Radar and watch/warnings map on Storm Page tab above (full website)
Yesterday's instability showers were due to a combination of cold air aloft, an atmospheric trough, and winds off of the Great Lakes. Much like late winter, in May. We had some showers pop up in the morning locally, as weather watcher Ralph in Westminster reported grouple (partially melted snowflakes). My old stomping grounds of Binghamton, NY (WBNG-TV '95-'97) had a trace of snow- which tied a record from 2002. It's only a 4 hour drive north on I-81, but it is unique. Checking their record books, they have reported snow quite often in May, and their latest snow date on record: July 14, 1954. But I digress. It's another story for another time.

Today: Rain moved in right on schedule around 5am. It has been moderate and dropping around 1/4 to 1/3 of an inch in the first 2 hours. The model guidance is about 1/2 of an inch- but that can vary quite a bit depending on where individual cells develop and pass. This is important for BWI which is 1.86" away from the record for May. A dent, but not the record today.The north wind will likely hold many spots down 15 degrees below normal. So while I went 61F for BWI, it could stay in the 50s north of the beltway.
An improvement is on the way, just in time for the holiday weekend. Anything different at this point would be an improvement, but I see four days or more without rain along with temperatures near or above normal. That means sun and close to 80F might actually make if possible to go to the pool. Tomorrow I will give my Holiday weekend forecast.

It's Time To Complain- We're Going To Have More Rain

We already had 3 individual record rainfall days in the past week. Here is an updated map of the rainfall from the past two storms. I do not like to sensationalize the weather. Sure I love a good snow, almost look for it all winter... but I know the harm that is done when it is hyped too much. You as the public get frustrated and angry when the weather does not reach your expectations. That has been my philosophy with the Climate Debate, my forecasting on TV, and this blog. But here we go with more rain on the way.


This active storm track continues to reinforce itself. Call it atmospheric memory. We get locked into a pattern, and that is what we are in now. A pattern thanks to outside forces such as La Nina and the North Atlantic Oscillation (explained in previous posts). That is one of the reasons that Mother's Day forecast worked out as I tracked it from 6 days out. So here again is the Canadian Model outlook for Friday morning. I do suspect that this is a little fast, and the heavy rain will be in the afternoon. The gist is the Low and the position. Again just to our south in Virginia. That keeps us on the colder northern fringe, and more severe weather possible from VA Beach into the Carolinas.
For us- it's the potential for over 1 inch of rain that will build on the already swollen streams and saturated soil. Tomorrow I will post the record rain to see if we will be close, but it will make a dent in the monthly total. We have a good shot at that all time wettest May with half of the month and less than 3 inches to go. Another storm on this track is possible by Tuesday or Wednesday. If it's going to do it- we might as well have something to show for it.

More Rain. More April Snow. What it Means...

The rain we have today is part of a slow moving storm riding up the Appalachian Mountains. It's actually a good thing, since we are 1.71 inches below normal for the year.
As for that thunderstorm on Friday night, it pounded places north of the beltway to PA. BWI did get about .39". Sunday's rain however was not that impressive. Since it was mostly drizzle, and light showers- only .10" was recorded. We are pulling out of a winter drought, so consider this as catch up. Model Guidance has us with over 1 inch today. Localized thunderstorms can double that amount and lead to some ponding or flooding on roads this afternoon. I understand that some of you are not happy with the new view of our Doppler Radar since the coloring is set highlight only the heaviest rain. That can be see on my TV Graphics Radars and Cams Page (above). I made a new Storm Page that shows the old coloring of the NWS radar along with Warnings and Lightning Tracker. See the tabs above on the Full Web Site.
April Snow Anyone?
This is just a sample of the Midwest snow pack. Parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas have 1-2 feet of snow on the ground. This is part of a very cold upper level Low that can bring snow showers to Chicago later today. That's nothing compared to what Anchorage, AK had over the weekend. They have had 109 inches of snow for the season, which is 40 inches above normal. Below is a video clip showing the 2 feet of snow that had. Listen to the guy- and it's something a lot of the northern folk are thinking. I had nothing to do with it....

Uhhhh, about that warm air....

So the warm stuff was having a tough time as of 9am this morning. After last night's sleet (see below), a cold air dam was set up much like a winter ice storm would do. Cold air is more dense and can get blocked up against the mountains. In the mountains themselves like Morgantown, WV it was 54F. The warm air can clip the higher elevations with this inversion (warm air aloft, cold air below). Warm air will also flow up along the coast such as Salisbury at 51F. Unfortunately we were stuck with the north wind and lucky to make it back into the lower 40s. This boundary did behave as expected (after the sleet) with fog and drizzle. That should break at the warm air sends rain with it today and tomorrow morning.
Here is an active view of the the Eastern US that should update every time you reload this page. As of 9am, BWI has recorded .70" of rain since it began Thursday afternoon. We still have a ways to go to reach my initial 2-3 inch forecast. Our best chance of heavy rain will be tonight into Saturday morning.
While we may have a chance at some thunder, the severe storm outbreak should be in the deep south near Mississippi, Alabama Georgia. The good news is that the front looks like it should pass to our south tomorrow and take most of the rain with it by the afternoon. I can't rule out some scattered showers popping up again in the afternoon or evening Saturday into Sunday morning, but gradually the atmosphere will stabilize. That would mean a more promising Sunday aftrernoon, even if it's just below the normal 61F.

Quick Changes...

Here is some great video from the BBC as seen in this YouTube Clip yesterday. A colony of Penguins were discovered that can fly!. Obviously an April Fools Joke. Next year, flying Polar Bears quickly evolve with wings out of need.

While we overshot my call of 70F by 5 degrees yesterday, the quick pattern is still on target. I have often pointed out the Law of Averages when relating extreme weather. The fact that we jumped to a high 15 degrees above normal yesterday may very well be balanced out by temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal tomorrow. Today is the transition day- and as you can see here - the 48 Hour forecast map from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center), show a brief visit of High Pressure bringing the strong winds this morning, will be out of here Thursday. (note this is a live link- so it will update and be posted after today).
The next wave of Low Pressure will spread over running moisture into Maryland in the form of thickening clouds Thursday and late day rain. Our chance of rain goes up on Friday as a surge of warmer air moves in, but it will not compare to what the lower Mississippi Valley will get.
This is going to be a moderate to major flooding event again for some of the same places that have had it in the past month. We have the potential of 1 inch of rain in Maryland, but south of St. Louis- there is a bullseye of 6 1/2 inches of rain. That is not good news, but will make news.
Climate Change or La Nina?
There have already been hints of the climate side with the flooding in March, however I am still not convinced. The Mississippi River Floods. A Lot! It is not a deep river, and is surround by a wide valley of low flatlands. That is topography that has been carved out by many thousands of years of frequent flooding. It floods when it rains, but especially with snow melt upstream. When you consider the near record snowfall this past winter in most of the upper midwest this past winter melting into the Mississippi, and combine the persistent storm track- it all results in too much in the same places. weather pattern reminds me of the flooding of 1993 along the Mississippi. It wasn't a significant La Nina Event, but a break from the strong El Nino's of the 1990s that lead to pattern of heavy rain from May through October and 20 Billion dollars in damage. While this recent La Nina is weakening, the already high water from snow melt and this rain will make things tense in this region through the Spring.
Tomorrow I will share some of Jim Schuyler's pictures of this season's Cherry Blossoms Festival. We should be left with seasonable temperatures this weekend.
Today ABC2 begins our relationship with the National Aquarium in Baltimore. Today I will be broadcasting the noon newscast on location to kick off the partnership. I will be standing next to a Toyota Prius they will be giving away this weekend at their Green Gala. Tickets may seem steep at $150, but it does afford the chance at a car that can get you close to 50 miles per gallon. For more on the Gala, check out the National Aquarium's web site.

Are you ready for some rain?

Yesterday was interesting, since an upper level disturbance brought us surprise afternoon clouds, but the high temperature jumped to 69F. Despite the critic in Starbucks this morning- it not "That Global Warming". Today's high of 85 was set in 1921, and we will be likely to get back to near 60F. In fact, a round of rain has been developing to our west and will continue to spread through Maryland today. A little more impressive than I earlier though: Rain (steady for a few hours) vs. Showers (hit or miss and lasting minutes to less than 1 hour).
While this stationary boundary will likely dump more rain west of the mountains, this mornings behavior leads me to believe that the models have not caught up to the true belief. This is the HPC forecast- basically from the GFS for rainfall this evening. About 1/2 inch to our north and west. I have not seen the 12Z (morning package) yet
, but I would assume it would bump our rainfall estimates up. The second wave with a .99 near Chicago will reach us tomorrow night and may linger into Saturday lunch hour. A touch call on that timing now, but these boundaries do not have much push to them this time of the year, so they can stick around. My bet is on steady rain returning and most impressive for us Friday afternoon and night. We could make a dent in our 2 inch deficit. The only issue will be with temperatures. It will be snow in NY state and New England, with 60s and 70s to our south. A big gradient, but for us the spread could be from low 60s to upper 40s. That gradient may be the difference from York, PA to AA County either today or tomorrow with the biggest bust potential.

Got to run for TV biz stuff....

Refocus the Eyes on the Prize

So we had some morning ice, and a lot of kids/teachers got to sleep in. I didn't do enough to play up the heavy rain.
Here is the Doppler Estimated Rainfall up to 1pm. As of my noon show, the average was 1.00" to 1.50" for the day- and more on the way. Considering that we were down 2" for the year and down 9 inches last year- this is a good thing. I saw large puddle and huge muddy streams rolling down the hills near my house. There is also a lake that has been running very low- this will be a good thing.
As of 2pm- the highest rainfall amounts are listed below. Click here for the Maryland Extreme Weather List, that should be updated hourly. Final totals may jump over 2 inches... and at least bring us back to normal for the year.
Tomorrow we look to Punxsutawney, PA for Phil's Groundhog's Day Prediction. I have a feeling thanks to the clearing behind this storm, he will see his shadow. I'm sure I will see mine, and confirm my call for winter's return. Tomorrow I will show you a long range model call for a coastal storm that some bloggers are already buzzing about.

Split Decision

Today, a normal day for late December. This is essentially the shortest day of the year, well daylight for those who want to get technical. The Winter Solstice is over the weekend, but the change in daylight from today to Saturday is only a difference of 7 seconds. So today being the sunny one, enjoy it!
We have cold air (35F-40F) in here for tomorrow, but that will also push this current system to our south. That gives us the clouds, but no snow. The winds around the Canadian High Pressure will be from the northeast. That could add some moisture for an evening snow shower or freezing drizzle in spots..but it does not look like a big deal now. Not much model support, but I have been watching the radar all morning, showing a hint at the precipitation shifting a little farther north. It may be worth watching on our southern fringe.

The weekend storm, which is now in the Rockies, will take a track into the Great Lakes. There is our split. South and west, we keep missing our mark. That will certainly draw in warmer air and bring us plain old rain. Two questions arise, how much rain, and how warm. The GFS model I followed last week, is bringing a front in a weakened for Sunday Evening, while my trusty Canadian model is much more wet. For the purpose of impact, I am showing that Canadian here. An inch of rain would help our drought, and could be the cast, if this model verifies a wave of Low Pressure riding up the front. Behind that, I see an upper level disturbance with the cold air on Christmas day. This may provide some holiday flurries.

Getting More...Online and Outside.

First, I wanted to ask you to try another web browser if you are using Micr. Int. Explorer. I've posted a link here on the right. I tested my site on Explorer yesterday, and it looks quite different. I was quite disappointed. From the banner, colors, and it was missing some elements. Just give this browser a try. It's free and will work much better overall. You might actually thank me.
As for more snow.. A lot of people have asked if this start indicates a snowy winter. That's like expecting the Orioles to make the playoffs when they do well in April. We might have a better chance though, but no guarantees - yet. Today, I would focus more on light and mix. It has raced in here, and I first began to adjust my forecast on TV at noon yesterday. This morning, my car thermometer (at 3:45am) was down to 13F in Hunt Valley. BWI hit 14F. Then this cloud deck rolled in, and any heat that rose up overnight, was bounced back down to the ground, so BWI was back to 20F at 6am. This system will track just north and west, which isn't a great track for us. So On that fast pace, it now appears that it could arrive earlier, with some snow, but still be light. This is the leading edge of warmer air, which will still bring us rain this weekend as we get back into the 40s.

Making Up for Lost Time

Despite the little warm up today and tomorrow, November temps are now just normal for Baltimore. The rain however, is -1.21" for the month, and -7.26" for the year. No doubt, we're still in a drought. But today's rain should help a little. This map here is the Canadian model precipitation forecast for 12hrs ending this evening. The yellow and orange in the mountains highlights over 1 inch (legend is in mm). While this type of system will often weaken after crossing the mountains, we should still get close to 1 inch. This cold front will also be responsible for some thunderstorms overnight.
Even better news is for Atlanta. Their reservoirs have made headlines with the potential of going dry next month. Their fortune as changed. Last week, a storm brought over 2 inches of rain. This one could do the same. A little bit a time. To put it all in perspective... Atlanta is still officially -19.08 inches below normal for the year. That is nearly 1/2 of what they should have had by now.
Beyond this storm, the colder air will make a return gradually. A taste on Wednesday, then we're back into the 40s with the next surge this weekend.

Weathertalk readers: The new web site debut is just days away....