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Friday, October 24, 2008

Rain, Rain, On The Way. It Will Be Here Saturday.

That large storm I mentioned yesterday, is still on target to make for a wet start to the weekend. Here is the generic 1-3 day rainfall forecast from HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center). These are mainly generated from the GFS model. You can see the heavy rain expected to our north and west, while Baltimore falls in the 'near 1 inch' range.
Here is the break down for Baltimore from a few of the models:

GFS: 0.85"
NGM: 0.41" (through Sat evening)
NAM: 1.37"

So a wide range to pick from, but a solid shot of a soaker. The models are calling for us to hit the low 60s, but i have a hard time expecting us to warm up that much with an easterly flow, and the cool damp air already in place. If this was a winter set up, we would be calling this a 'cold air dam', and have the physics of a phase change from snow/ice and rain to deal with. Either way, I went 60F for Saturday on TV, but there is a good chance that we spend most of the day in the 50s. It should be noted that winds will be strong out of the east and southeast over 30 knots.. translating to about 35 mph. That will make for a raw day, but only one day. The wind will be strong on Sunday, but it will clear out.
I know I promised another winter long range outlook. I will get that online later today- so check back then or over the weekend. On a side note, there still is hope for flurries next week close to home.

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