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Thursday, January 31, 2008


As expected the chance of ice was extended to surround the Baltimore Beltway north and west. So Baltimore County- north of Towson, and Howard County were added to the map below. The Winter Storm Watch is now a Freezing Rain Advisory. It should warm to above freezing during the morning- before the heavy stuff moves in..., but some places could see 1/4 inch accumulation. Otherwise, just slippery in the morning on the roads, especially it it starts just before sunrise. Say 3am-6am. That's no fun for anyone. At least I have something to talk about tomorrow morning....

No Snow, But Ice Just West

Here is the GFS depiction for Friday- Feb. 1st morning. The same High Pressure that is bringing us sun this morning, will depart in New England, and result in a North Easterly wind. This piles cold, dense air up against the mountains.
Depending on the wind direction, the cold air could get locked in place through the afternoon and lead to extensive ice problems. If the wind turns more due east- then it would bring in warmer air and turn all sections over to just rain faster. Note: Sleet bounces- Freezing Rain sticks and accumulates on trees, etc.
Timing will also be important. It looks like the arrival will be just before sunrise. If it arrives later that will allow some warmer air to work in and lower the ice threat. If it arrives earlier, then the ice could be more widespread and linger longer into the morning. While I think there may be some potential ice at the start in parts of Howard and Baltimore Counties, the best chance for it to linger will be farther north and west. As the storm cranks into Ohio, it should pull the warm front through central MD and bring temps up in to the lower 40s.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Windy Wednesday

Plain and simple- It will be windy! I noticed a trend at my old house- that we often had strong winds on Wednesday. Essentially it was Garbage Day and my cans would end up down the street. This is also the type of day that small dogs turn into kites... No- but you will feel it while driving. Especially if you drive a minivan or SUV.
This is all a result of that strong storm in the mid-west that caused Blizzard conditions in Iowa yesterday.

This morning- temperatures took a hard core dive behind this storm. Here are the 6am temperatures, showing a hint of our downturn later on. The net result of this chill, will be colder than expected. Temperatures will drop this afternoon, and continue overnight until we settle in the teens Thursday morning. This cold air may lock in as the next storm races in. The timing of the next event will be crucial, but close enough to be watched. There is a chance the cold air gets dammed in with a NE wind. So as the next storm brings in it's warm moist air aloft, a great set up for an ice storm. While I think our ice would be just a morning thing and give way to warming- it could be a big deal just north in central PA. Either way, a chance we you teachers and kids might get some extra sleep Friday morning- stay tuned.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Somber Anniversary of Challenger Explosion

Since I way 'under the weather' and took the day off- this will be brief.
Yesterday was the 22nd anniversary of the Challenger Explosion. Here is the visible satellite image- with the explosion debris cloud circled in yellow.

The Challenger exploded 73 seconds after lifting off from Cape Canaveral on Jan. 28, 1986, killing all seven people on board. This included New Hampshire teacher Christa McAuliffe.

It was determined that the cause was the failure of O-ring seals in the solid rocket booster as well as NASA’s organizational culture, which ignored the cold weather warnings.

A sure signature of cold weather on a satellite like this is the distinct line of clouds off shore - like lake effect clouds. The cold air interacting with much warmer water eventually results in low level condensation. More on the Challenger Mission can be found at the NASA web site.

Here is a video of the weather related to the disaster:

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Outlook Promising- Despite Warmup This Week

It may have been a waste of cold air the past two weeks with very little snow, but we are not done yet. The animation of the Northern Hemisphere shows the 500mb pattern for the past month. The USA is the bottom center section. Look to the right of center (north pole), which is Greenland and the North Atlantic. The blue shows the troughs and old air we have had the past few months. The red shows the increased heights- ridges and warmer air- early in the month- and trying to return again. More below:

Here you can see the graphical breakdown of the NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation. Negative numbers represent a blocking pattern which results in troughs and colder air on the east coast. The GFS forecast shows a this week's positive phase, but a negative phase developing in February. We will be warming up this week, but it's a good thing. The pattern needs to re-establish itself. The recent trough just wasn't producing a good storm track for us. Anything that generated to our south skipped off of the Carolina coast and could not turn the corner north and hit us (like some of us want). Although the Delmarva did get clipped this week. So the forecast for a positive NAO is just for a week, before a return to the cold phase. That will allow another shot of polar air- to set up what will hopefully be more favorable. There is a lot of energy in this La Nina winter- we just need it to reach us the right way. Remember that 8 0f the top 20 Baltimore snowstorms (about 12 inches or more) occurred in February. So while we range from mid 40s to near 50s this week, it's not all bad.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Shave and Snow

Yesterday's snowfall explained is in the the post below..
First: Thanks for the support about the snow beard in the first place. One last time- let me explain. I pledged not to shave until we got 2 inches of snow- to show my confidence that winter was not done. Then it snowed, but the online poll endorsed the idea to leave it 1 more day and shock the parents. That was last weekend. ABC2 wanted me to shave live on TV Monday- but the shaver did not show up. Guys- help me out here. It's not easy to shave a dry beard. So I cut most of it- but left the goatee (or Van Dyke- whatever it's called) just for the end of the day. The beard was gone... My wife who put up with the beard, actually liked it. Then I got dozens of emails saying I should keep it. Guys- what would you do? Well, after just a few complaints that I did not keep my word I decided to end the shave it all off on the air this morning. Denise Dorey helped out- and the video may show up online later today. So it's gone, I kept my word to all- and now I begin to grow another one, at least for February.
Today is the anniversary of the 14-18 inches of snow we got in 2000. It was a storm I am proud to say that was missed by the National Weather Service- but I caught the day before. The new mainframe super computers were just online and had the storm skipping off of the coast, but instead it turned the corner and slammed us. Blizzard conditions with wind gusts to 45mph and 'thunder snow' dominated the day. That was part of the 10 day winter that year- which brought us 23 inches total at BWI.
I was working at WBAL at the time, but below is one of my favorite live shots the day after this storm- digging a car out on Falls Road: For the record: Tony Pann still lives in the area- and works at Channel 9 in DC.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Afternoon Update: A Little Explaining to do...

The Eastern Shore got it! Just like the NAM I posted this morning (below), this regional radar from 1:30pm was almost right on. So, why did we miss it? Again? There is an answer for everything and at this point, I am still trying to figure that out. My only guess now is that as the precipitation enhanced thanks to that vort max and rising air on the Eastern Shore, there was subsidence or sinking air around it. That is what we got, which inhibits cloud formation- and we got the sun to return.

Here is the web version of StormCenter Doppler from earlier afternoon. You can see the distinct line of snow on the Eastern Shore. It developed earlier than I expected, but also moved out earlier. That vort max I highlighted is most likely what did it, but it moved through much faster and farther east to do anything for the west side of the bay.
Below are Weathernet Camera snapshots of the snow in Easton and Ocean City. You can see the feilds in Easton covered with the 1-2 inches expected. Ocean City got more than they expected. That is the beach covered with snow, and a very gray Atlantic Ocean in the background.

Snow Showers- More - Eastern Shore!

Just a shift east, and the beaches may win this round of snow. At the bottom of this post you can see the Snow Advisory Map. The models have pulled back on any accumulated precipitation- but that doesn't mean we are done. This reminds me of what we had back on Jan. 14th- a snow burst. In fact you can see that blog on the right- look for the label (vort max). It could look impressive in spots and coat the ground with less than 1 inch. It all depends on timing and true position of the vort max. Forget the cold front from the west, and the small coastal to our south- here is the NAM 500mb ( roughly 18,000 feet) map. This shows the spin or energy in the atmosphere that can enhance shower. First, a spin at this level will create rising air from the ground and help clouds develop. The timing of late afternoon or early evening acts on any late day heating to enhance it as well. So if you are watching the radar- it might not look impressive most of the day. This feature will enhance the coastal system, but that will be pushed offshore.
Basically- all of us have about the same chance of snow showers- yet the Delmarva may be in the position to have that last longer into the evening, at it will be closer to the of shore Low Pressure. With the chance of 1-2 inches there, this Snow Advisory has been issued for Queen Annes, Talbot, and Caroline Counties. At 12:30pm Kent and Wicomico were added. Watching the current radar- I would suggest a 2-3 inch range for those counties..

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Something out of Nothing

This is a rare 'winter rainbow' as seen on the Magothy River Tuesday. We can thank Tom in Severna Park for this picture... but we should also thank the rain showers (instead of the snow expected) that produced this.
It was lunch time when it became apparent that the strong southerly winds had succeeded in two thing: It boosted our temperatures above freezing quickly, and the precipitation broke up crossing the mountains.
Analyzing this morning's ice on the south side in AA county and the Eastern Shore- I can only suggest that rain their last night followed by clearing did the trick. yet Baltimore and Howard County was ironically warmer in the mid 30s. This may have been due to wet ground to our south- evaporating in the clearing- which dropped the temperature just below freezing. This is the same reason you feel colder after a shower or out of the pool. Evaporative Cooling.
So while we enjoy this image, I look ahead to tomorrow with trepidation. Another chance of snow showers is on the way for Thursday- but there is a huge discrepancy among my daily favorite models. This makes me a little hesitant to pull the trigger. Below are model forecast maps all for the same time frame: Thursday Evening...

While the NAM (show here) is most appealing with over 4 inches of snow, it is is the only model with any accumulation. well, at least with text output I can decipher. It is most impressive with this developing coastal Low and enhancement from another cold front. The Canadian also shows some wrap around by Thursday evening- with an estimated inch or two. Below you can see the NGM with very light precipitation- which justifies snow showers or flurries. GFS has almost nothing of interest, and has the best track record this season. Of course these are the overnight runs. If anything changes, I should know by our noon show.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Just a Nuisance

First it was the computer bug at work yesterday. I was unable to log into my system after my lunch break, so I could not update this blog...Yet the time lapse of last week's snow is still below.
Second: This Advisory. 10AM-4PM
CANCELED As of 12:30PM
A little snow and sleet, perhaps ending as rain. It will be light, but could be enough to be slippery. A Nuisance! Considering that we have been in the deep freeze, it should be easier for anything to stick- as opposed to last Thursday when it took a heavy burst of snow to cool down the pavement. While I think the schools should stay in session- it may be something a knee jerk reaction could prove otherwise.
It may get slick- but this does not look to be any more than a coating for most of us, however sometimes that is all it takes. The computer guidance shows a range of just a coating to at most just over an inch. If anyone gets much more than 1 inch of snow- I will be surprised. Likely that even if there is a little enhancement- it will be sleet and rain at that point. If you notice me covering my words- that's because after 10 years in Baltimore- "what I might consider light could be enough to fright".

Now that I am back in the system, I will post later this morning about the next chance of a storm (this weekend). I am waiting for the morning model package to come out.

Monday, January 21, 2008

A Huge Dissapointment!

Where to begin? I must restrain myself, even here- but I am not happy! Basically, no shave on TV this morning. There are things out of my control- and this was one of them. I was planning on shaving this weekend, but I was convinced to do it live on TV this morning. Well, it turns out the person who was suppose to do it- will not be here. I found out when I got to work this morning, and don't have a razor with me! Guys- help me out here. Would you want to shave your face without a shower anyway- unless a professional is doing it? So basically- I thank you for your support, but apologize for not being able to follow through with the rest. I would have put myself up for the comic humiliation- but don't even have the means to shave myself at work. The beard is coming off today! I am getting quite used to it, but I made a promise and have to stick with it. If anything- I was quite comfortable this morning with the insulation. The coolest thing about this was that some of you have decided to try and grow a beard to, or women have told me they encouraged their husbands to grow their facial fur...
There will be more snow tomorrow. When I get a chance to "cool down' on this frigid morning- I'll get back to the outlook. In the meantime, while most of the USA is in the grips of the deep freeze, read this story to see how China has had it's worst winter in 20 years.

Here is the timelapse video of last week's snow I promised:

Sunday, January 20, 2008

The Chill is on!

While it looks like yesterday's extrapolation from GFS looks to be too cold, it will be frigid. Partially thank the fact that most of our snow melted, and we will likely end up in the mid 20s instead of upper teens in central Maryland today. However, we can expect some single digits temps in the morning. Good thing it's a holiday and a lot of people will get to sleep in. Here you can see this morning's temperatures. I wanted to highlight some spots. First Football: The 3pm Game New England will not be too bad. Boston's 28F this morning however was the same temperature as Pensacola, FL. New Orleans was down to 34F. Note: Atlanta Georgia picked up about 1 inch of snow- but a lot melted on warm ground.
This evening game in Green Bay, WI will be the dangerous one. This morning's temperature ranged from -15F to -20F in northern Wisconsin. Kickoff temperature will be around 0F, with -15F wind chill. That means frostbite can develop in less than 15 minutes. While it might be fun to watch (the Giants win) on TV, it will be dangerous for players and fans.
Tomorrow the beard gets shaved.... but winter is just getting started. Just a quick peak at Tuesday from the Canadian. A cold front will try to reinforce our cold air, and bring us some showers. Right now it looks like snow and or rain showers... but may have the potential of an inch of snow. A series of cold fronts will move through during the week, with a chance of a larger short wave storm next Sunday. More on this Monday.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Arctic Blast, Close Shave

I made a video blog announcing how ABC2 wants me to shave on TV Monday morning. That is still in yesterday's post below. I made a promise (for the kids) and it will come off. Over the past week, I have been talking about the certainty of this arctic air. What was uncertain was the handling of Thursday and Saturday (today snow). First, here is the GFS Surface and precip accumulation for this evening. I highlighted what I mentioned on TV yesterday, it looks like a better chance farther south. My old maps are in the TV Graphics Page. Looking at this morning's radar, there may be some flurries and light snow during the day, but here the GFS indicates any measurable accumulation on the lower/eastern shore. Baltimore is marked with a yellow X to show the arctic front that may provide some light snow, but push the coastal farther east. If things change, I am on call to work this evening- so I'll get to talk about it then...Let's hope not- I've got family in town I'd like to stay with...
Below is the text output that shows three important points.

  1. Forecast accumulation is .01 inches
  2. Sunday afternoon temperatures could stay below at 18F or lower!
  3. Wind (measured in knots) will be gusting 20-30mph. Wind Chill will be near ZERO!

Friday, January 18, 2008

BZzzzzzzzzzz... Shave Live on TV

Afternoon Announcement: I will take pics of the family reaction over the weekend and post them as well...

It's almost time. We have a busy morning, but the poll at the right might explain the delay in the shave. I am amazed by the response from many of you. Quite a few want me to keep it, others just to get my parents. Seriously, at this stage with a young kid- it's all about him. I was never a showboat, and this may be my last shot. So for those of you that think I am backing out- I am not. We did get the needed snow, and my promise will be followed through. Soon! ABC2 is working on the best way to share it.

Saturday's storm is not looking like our shot. Better chance for the Eastern Shore. I will try to post (if I can) this evening.
In the meantime, check out my Snow Page. I had faith in the flakes, and tried to encourage the kids that winter was not done. In fact check this out:
BWI Snow:

  • Yesterday: 2.4"
  • Season: 7.2"(1.8" above normal)
  • Normal: 5.4"
The Snow was pretty close to the forecast map (see yesterday's post below). However Anne Arundel County got a surprise with more snow. I had mentioned on TV yesterday that we were aware they were not included in the Advisory. This was based on the temperatures expected to warm up just enough and turn them over to sleet and rain earlier (after 1-2 inches of snow). Instead, the burst of heavy snow arrived nearly at the start and helped to drag down colder temps from the clouds and hold it in long enough. Rates were 1-2 inches per hour.
I just captured some of the time lapse videos of the snow I showed on TV yesterday. I will post them here this weekend.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

Harford County Pictures??? BEARD POLL

If you have a snow report and or good picture of the storm in Harford County, plese send it to me at work
The Beard Poll is at the right. Also check out my snow page for more on this and Baltimore snow history.
Former posts with Live Cams and maps below:

First Flakes- 10:30am- 1:30pm Sloppy roads!!!

Right on schedule. I am sure the collective rush to the windows may have been recorded as a blip on the Richter Scale..
At 1:30pm- I am just baffled. We have a steady south east wind, yet temps are holding. I see impressive returns on the radar (See TV Graphics , etc page) near DC. That may be the sleet and the change over. Until then- looks like amounts may have to be updated- and the beard is likely coming off. I am staying at the station to double team this evening. If you have snow amounts- e mail them to me there - with your town:
Below in this morning's post you can see the snow maps. Here are some update camera images from:
Glenelg is west in Howard County(here).

Inner Harbor Baltimore from MD Science Center and Annapolis is south in Anne Arundel County (below). You can find more in the County Spotlight pages

Winter Storm-Not For all

No Snow=No Shave: Day 14 I need 2 inches to fall at BWI to shave, this might be a close call there. More on my Snow Page (link above)
Yes, this is the same storm I blogged about over last weekend, then let go a few days ago. Not completely though: The wintry mix was always in my forecast, I just didn't want to get too excited over this, and we kept the lines down at the stores.
I am still close to what I said yesterday. The difference is the early arrival catching up and holding some slightly colder air in place. Don't expect to see anything on your way to work or school, but you will be at the window watching it around lunchtime.
Here are the basics:

  • Snow begins for all 9am-1pm
  • Mix and change to rain city/south by evening.
  • I-95 will separate snow/ice north- rain south.
  • Check road pavement temperatures for potential slick spots.
  • Icy problems Friday morning in Advisory areas.
Check my TV Weather Graphics and Stuff Pages- Our StormCenter Doppler eliminates the false flakes (virga), while the regional radars will look like it is much closer. This will be a busy day, so I may not be able to post about models, etc. I will hop on quickly and update the snow arrival right here- so check back.
Just wanted to give the basics, and thank you all for spreading the word about my site. Don't forget to get all of your friends to turn the channel to ABC2 as well.

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Afternoon Update

There is a chance of an early arrival for Thursday's storm. that would lock in colder air and linger more snow and sleet. The timing of 'near mid day' is what I am aiming for. Ice problems may linger north and west in Hereford Zone, Carroll and Baltimore Counties. I-95 will likely be wet anyway during the day and just a chilly rain with warming in the evening. If I can I will update later...but definitely on TV in the morning...

Is the Trend Our Friend?

No Snow=No Shave: Day 13
Hope you had a good view of the snow burst yesterday. It wasn't the 2 inches at BWI I need to end my beard. Here is the radar from Tuesday mid day, and a pic of the coating I had at my place.
In honor of my son's 2nd birthday, he let me use his buggy to show the snow. It melted pretty quickly though.

Skipping ahead to Thursday's storm, I have a hard time getting excited about this storm considering our track record since mid December. The guidance has us with a mix to rain , then perhaps some frozen junk at the end on Friday morning. Nothing pure, nothing clear cut. So this is when I rely on climatology. Hereford Zone and Carroll County with the chance of starting with snow and sleet, and ending with some ice. While we may be lucky to start with sleet or snow around the beltway, it's likely we turn to rain. Borderline temps will stay in the mid 30s.
Still on that arctic blast for the weekend. As it arrives, this 'snow burst' on Saturday should be more impressive than what we just had. By Sunday, afternoon temperatures should range from upper teens in Carroll County and southern PA to mid 20s by the bay.

The pattern is turning! We may have to shift our focus away from disappointing coastals, and wait for clippers. The long range for Thursday next week could look like the Dec 5th storm. I would be more than surprised if this worked out exactly as this view 9 days out- but the GFS model is still trying.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Snow Burst

No Snow=No Shave: Day 12; Still waiting for 2" @ BWI. check out my Snow Page for more.
Once again, here is the 500mb chart for this afternoon showing the vort max which should generate some strong snow showers. I have timed it out between 11am and 3pm. This is the type of set up that will not like too much until it gets close. Some mid day heating should help enhance the action, and I still expect gusty winds and a coating on the ground in spots.
This may act as a little cold front, although all it will do is slightly shift the wind and allow the skies to clear out tonight cooling us down into the lower 20s. It will, however allow a sunny day to bring us back to normal temps Wednesday.

The outlook for Thursday is still on the fence. While it is looking like that polar air and trough will not truly build in and is holding off until after the storm, the arrival might come with a mix as some marginal temps hang on- shown with the bold 540 thickness line on the GFS. The Canadian (white background), shows the Low a little farther east. Yesterday I mentioned the trend- and this trend east on the Canadian is better for us, but the cold air still gets pushed into PA. We can thank the the upper level flow around approaching Arctic air for that. This may act as a wave approaching shore, slightly warmer air gets pulled in before the crash of the cold. So while I disputed it a few days ago, the cold air doesn't really get in here until after this coast passes. In fact another short wave, or clipper will move through Saturday with our best shot of snow showers- leading the arctic charge.
This GFS 850mb plot is for Sunday morning. Here the temperatures at around 5000ft will be down to around -20C. That is -4F, and would translate to a struggle to reach the lower 20s on Sunday. If was have snow on the ground- it would likely keep daytime temps in the teens.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Monday Eve. "Why we will get a snow burst Tuesday"

Sorry I forgot to post again earlier. This is just a quick shout out to why I believe we will get a snowburst tomorrow. I know some of you are disappointed we did not get it this morning. These types of storms (Miller B), are Great Lakes systems that develop a new Low off of the Mid Atlantic Coast. It can also hold some warm air and push the storm too far away for us. I had snow at my place, but it was 36F and did not stick- and does not matter to you.
Here you go for Tuesday:
This 500mb WRF plot for midnight and Tuesday afternoon. It shows the vort max (upper level energy or spin) I marked with an X. It is strong, and will be in a perfect spot for us as it passes at the right time for afternoon convection. I would not be surprised is a coating to an inch lays on the north side, but we should get some wind and a burst between 11am and 3pm. The grass, and maybe some roads get a cover, but I will hold the beard until the end of the week.
Thursday is still looking on the fence, or mostly rain- but some eastward push with the models is what I'm watching. I don't want to play it up like I did over the weekend. It will still bring in the arctic air. More on that Tuesday.

Another Dissappointment

No Snow=No Shave: Day 11
Sorry all! While I held on hope, perhaps you got the hint I was making yesterday in my post... it didn't look promising. So forget all that stuff about elevation and cold air aloft... we never had a chance to prove it as the storm generated too far east for us.
I was reminded of something as Tony Pann returned from vacation to take over the weekend and weekday afternoon reports on WCBM: First- A fresh pair of eyes, looking for the first time at the models Saturday night- were not biased from previous runs of a larger storm. Second- The trend is your friend. If the models are consistently lowering precipitation amounts for whatever reason, stick with that trend and lower your expectations. Also, this trend of 'just missing it', may be our pattern. It's been great for New England, as they get pounded again with 1 foot plus in spots. I wasn't too far off with this, but good thing I don't work in Philly. The 3"-6" inches I called for them ended up in NY instead. It was too fast and too far east, we never really had a shot. That is why I also posted Emily's map she put on TV last night. She won!
There is still a chance for Thursday/Friday. More later...
Once again, this is the anniversary of the Great January Heat Wave- 1932. I know this will anger some of you Global Warming folks who think I have an agenda, but this is just almanac fact. This heat wave 75 years ago included the warmest temperature ever in Baltimore onthis date-reaching 79F

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Updated: Record Anniversary Heat Wave and Elevation Snow

This is a quick morning update. I will do my best to post this afternoon with a snow-cast map.
First: This is the anniversary of the most impressive January Heat Wave on record in Baltimore.
The year: 1932

  • January 13th: 76F
  • January 14th: 79F * Hottest ever for the month
  • January 15th: 78F
As for tonight's storm, still on the fence. My basic impression is two-fold.
  1. As coastal develops, cold air will wrap in at cloud level, surface temps will be bordering freezing. That means sleet and snow likely, but higher elevations will have a better chance for 'stickage' and some accumulation. Note: BWI is near sea level. Towson, Cockeysville and Owings Mills are a little over 400Ft. Reisterstown and Parkton are close to 800Ft.
  2. Monday morning the storm pulls away, but 'comma' head or heavy precip around the low center may clip eastern sections. Based on temperature profile and track, Cecil county could be the big winner. Early sampling shows potential for 3"-6" from Cecil County to Philadelphia. While NYC and Boston could get 1 foot of snow. Around the beltway, elevation plays role for north side to have the best shot of 'stickage' and accumulation... but roads temps may also be an issue.
Afternoon Update:
The storm might not look like much when you go to bed. It will develop overnight, but looks like just past us. Once a Low Pressure center passes our latitude (north of 39.0N) then we tend to get downsloped and cut off our precip. That looks like the position of the Low when it rapidly develops. The NAM model here for 7am Monday is actually the most impressive. Most have it well past us by then. If you watched the Packer's game last night and saw their snow- it's that Great Lake's storm that is pushing this coastal development a little farther east. This is the 3rd model run with with less moisture and warmer temperatures. I does not look promising! I've highlighted the general forecast area in yellow while the comma head I mentioned above just clips Cecil County. If you watch Good Morning MD on ABC2 I will be focusing on this Monday. Below is the video blog and my snowcast map.

This map was my call from home, below is Emily Gracey's map from ABC2. I think her conservative call on snow will work out better than mine... this made be just a little farther east, and pretty much done for us in the morning.

Saturday, January 12, 2008

Saturday 2nd Post Afternoon:

No Snow= No Shave: Day 9
Will schools be delayed or closed on Monday??? I know it's already the buz, but still uncertain. Below I have detailed why, but just a call for snow in the forecast is not what students and teachers (even my new friends at Cockeysville MS) want. The return of winter is a guarantee, and if there has not been a reason to shave the beard by this time next week, I will be shocked.
My GFS Video Blog is at the bottom of this post showing a few changes I don't trust. As for the first event- Sunday night and Monday: The mid range models (48-60Hr) are now catching on to it. Rather than just show a map plot (you can still see the GFS in this morning's post), I wanted to show some of the extracted text I look at. Below you will see the AVN grid from Texas A&M for BWI. This break down can be overwhelming, so I just wanted to point out the important features. More below image:
First in universal time 00Z (Zulu or Greenwich Mean Time) is at night. and 12Z is morning. So 00Z Monday is actually 7pm Sunday evening, and 12Z is 7am Monday Morning.
While the surface temperature is expected to be 34F-35F, the 850mb temperature (~5000Ft) will be -2F to -4F. That includes the 1000-500mb thickness below 540, and further breakdown not on this output (1000-700mb and 700-500mb) justifies either sleet or a heavy wet snow- that might melt on roads.
It's a very tough call. The total precipitation is .54" liquid equivalent. That's enough if all snow to give 3-5 inches of heavy wet snow. If it was daylight, I would say just wet roads, and white grass. At night is a different story. It's been warm for a while, so the chances of the roads cooling down and beating the trucks will be tough. It was have to be at it's heaviest on Monday morning, which it might be- to get a delay. But further south, the lower your chances (B'more city and AA County). The trend of all models is for more on the E. Shore but warmer temps and into New England up to 1 ft. near Boston. I'll do my best for a snowcast tomorrow.

Video Blog of GFS 240Hr Model:

CHANGES- It's back on for Monday Morning.

I should have stayed with my own advice. The GFS has a tendency to flip when longer than 48Hrs ahead of a storm. It looks like it is back on for Monday- but analyzing all of the data, it looks like a classic borderline forecast for us. Pretty good dose of moisture on last nights model run (over 1" liquid equivalent). I-95 corridor could be a very cold rain or sleet and snow. The GFS has BWI at just above 32F but some upper level support for freezing precip. Here is a quick look at the latest NAM. I have a busy morning, but will post what I can concerning the other models this afternoon.
That GFS video clip I did yesterday is still available below. I will try to do another one, which still shows two more storms, but some changes. All will depend on how this first thing behaves...

Friday, January 11, 2008

Pattern Change- Winter Will Return. SOON!

No Snow= No Shave: Day 8
I posted my reasons yesterday about the shifting pattern and return of cold to the east. The models are still dancing around the trough with a few shots of coastal storms. The GFS which I never liked, but has done the best job this year- has diminished Monday's coastal, but building up Thursday and a larger one Saturday. This video is my analysis of this model. Check it out and then fill out the poll to let me know if this is something I should try again. The problem is that this second storm keeps getting pushed back to day 6 or 7 on every run. It sees something, but how confident can we be in it this far out. I am also waiting for the 12Z run for the latest on next week. I may post again on that later today, but definitely over the weekend. For those of you that like analog year, January 2000 started off warm. Jan 2nd and 3rd were both 68F, the 4th was 70F.. then the pattern flipped. We were hit with 3 storms between the 20th and 30th resulting in a total of 23 inches. That was an above normal season for snow- most in just those 10 days. Just how it works out some times.
Great Pictures were emailed to me yesterday. I made a new slide show in the Album page- Best of Baltimore Jan2008. Check it out in addition to my Snow Page.