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Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Snow Burst

No Snow=No Shave: Day 12; Still waiting for 2" @ BWI. check out my Snow Page for more.
Once again, here is the 500mb chart for this afternoon showing the vort max which should generate some strong snow showers. I have timed it out between 11am and 3pm. This is the type of set up that will not like too much until it gets close. Some mid day heating should help enhance the action, and I still expect gusty winds and a coating on the ground in spots.
This may act as a little cold front, although all it will do is slightly shift the wind and allow the skies to clear out tonight cooling us down into the lower 20s. It will, however allow a sunny day to bring us back to normal temps Wednesday.

The outlook for Thursday is still on the fence. While it is looking like that polar air and trough will not truly build in and is holding off until after the storm, the arrival might come with a mix as some marginal temps hang on- shown with the bold 540 thickness line on the GFS. The Canadian (white background), shows the Low a little farther east. Yesterday I mentioned the trend- and this trend east on the Canadian is better for us, but the cold air still gets pushed into PA. We can thank the the upper level flow around approaching Arctic air for that. This may act as a wave approaching shore, slightly warmer air gets pulled in before the crash of the cold. So while I disputed it a few days ago, the cold air doesn't really get in here until after this coast passes. In fact another short wave, or clipper will move through Saturday with our best shot of snow showers- leading the arctic charge.
This GFS 850mb plot is for Sunday morning. Here the temperatures at around 5000ft will be down to around -20C. That is -4F, and would translate to a struggle to reach the lower 20s on Sunday. If was have snow on the ground- it would likely keep daytime temps in the teens.

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