Something out of Nothing

This is a rare 'winter rainbow' as seen on the Magothy River Tuesday. We can thank Tom in Severna Park for this picture... but we should also thank the rain showers (instead of the snow expected) that produced this.
It was lunch time when it became apparent that the strong southerly winds had succeeded in two thing: It boosted our temperatures above freezing quickly, and the precipitation broke up crossing the mountains.
Analyzing this morning's ice on the south side in AA county and the Eastern Shore- I can only suggest that rain their last night followed by clearing did the trick. yet Baltimore and Howard County was ironically warmer in the mid 30s. This may have been due to wet ground to our south- evaporating in the clearing- which dropped the temperature just below freezing. This is the same reason you feel colder after a shower or out of the pool. Evaporative Cooling.
So while we enjoy this image, I look ahead to tomorrow with trepidation. Another chance of snow showers is on the way for Thursday- but there is a huge discrepancy among my daily favorite models. This makes me a little hesitant to pull the trigger. Below are model forecast maps all for the same time frame: Thursday Evening...

While the NAM (show here) is most appealing with over 4 inches of snow, it is is the only model with any accumulation. well, at least with text output I can decipher. It is most impressive with this developing coastal Low and enhancement from another cold front. The Canadian also shows some wrap around by Thursday evening- with an estimated inch or two. Below you can see the NGM with very light precipitation- which justifies snow showers or flurries. GFS has almost nothing of interest, and has the best track record this season. Of course these are the overnight runs. If anything changes, I should know by our noon show.