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Thursday, January 31, 2008

No Snow, But Ice Just West


Here is the GFS depiction for Friday- Feb. 1st morning. The same High Pressure that is bringing us sun this morning, will depart in New England, and result in a North Easterly wind. This piles cold, dense air up against the mountains.
Depending on the wind direction, the cold air could get locked in place through the afternoon and lead to extensive ice problems. If the wind turns more due east- then it would bring in warmer air and turn all sections over to just rain faster. Note: Sleet bounces- Freezing Rain sticks and accumulates on trees, etc.
Timing will also be important. It looks like the arrival will be just before sunrise. If it arrives later that will allow some warmer air to work in and lower the ice threat. If it arrives earlier, then the ice could be more widespread and linger longer into the morning. While I think there may be some potential ice at the start in parts of Howard and Baltimore Counties, the best chance for it to linger will be farther north and west. As the storm cranks into Ohio, it should pull the warm front through central MD and bring temps up in to the lower 40s.

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