About that Ice...This afternoon

So I tried to take the blame for over doing the snow- especially on the north side. I thought this morning burst would bring more snow, but it actually stopped for a few hours on that north side. that's what ended any potential for my forecast. Not a full bust, I admit my mistake. Otherwise, this is all behaving as expected. Mostly freezing rain, and a slow process of warming up. Here is my Afternoon Breakdown. It will not be perfect, but as close as I can get to show the places that hang on to the ice. At our news meeting this morning, I mentioned to draw a line from I-70 through the city and up I-95 in Harford and Cecil counties. Anywhere north will be the Roads will likely stay wet, while windshields freeze if you drive. The first morning model package is showing a general .1-.2 inches of ice potential...
The hardest thing today will be to watch the surface temperatures.
As I write this at 10am:
ABC2- Baltimore/Towson: 27F
BWI: 30F
Annapolis (many stations): 30-32F
Westminster: 25F
Easton: 30F

This morning map shows the developing Low with the second wave of rain and freezing rain on the way this afternoon.
There are county breakdown pages with camera images and local weather stations in the tabs above.

Shifting Snow Bands. More Sleet and Ice

Scroll down for Sleet vs. Freezing Rain Animation:

Update at 8am:
What I got right:

• An average of 1-2 inches at daybreak.
• Most snow totals will end in the morning.

What I got wrong:

• Snowcast was a bust.
• Heavier snow north. The turn over is beginning there.
• New Freedom had 3 inches, Hereford had 2 inches.
• While I was aiming for 2 or more in Towson, we only got about 1"
  

5am Post:

As I drove in early today, snow in Hunt Valley turned to mostly sleet and freezing rain in Towson and ABC2 Studios in North Baltimore. That was 3:00AM. As of 4:30, it was back to snow. Here is the radar from 3:17am showing the sleet in Baltimore County. It went back to snow soon after, and the snow seems to be winning the push early.

I am wavering on my snow bands, but wanted to make a little adjustment. The fine tuning is to bring the 1-2 inch line into downtown Baltimore, while 2"-4" from north Baltimore through the Hereford Zone. I'd hate to look back and see that my first forecast was better, but I had to attempt to adjust this morning.













There is a guarantee of an ice event today. The question is when it turns to ice. As I have mentioned before, I often look at atmospheric thickness of certain layers. The thickness will expand when warmer, and shows the potential for sleet vs. freezing rain. For those of you that look at models, this diagram may help. The numbers listed in meters is the general limit for icy weather. If I have a chance I will try to post an example. The wintry precipitation diagram is just below.

Most important today: I see most places north and west of Baltimore staying near or below freezing. That will mean much more ice into the afternoon and evening.
A busy day, so I have to leave it here for now.

WINTER STORM WATCH

The net result of Wednesday's storm was very close to my forecast (you can see in the post below).
Here you see 2 distinct bands of moderate snow. Unfortunately for most in the Baltimore metro area, it was just around 1 inch. That is in tune with my original forecast, yet the increased range did verify north and south. Annapolis was the big winner with 4 inches of the fluffy stuff. However DC and Chantily, VA barely got a dusting... Just bad luck I guess.

As of 6am- here is Winter Storm Watch Map, and my First Call:














The overnight models are trying to push BWI up to around 34-36 on Friday which would turnover to plain rain. However the model trend has been to be too biased with storms, pushing them to far north.
Below is what I am looking at to factor into my forecast:

1. Storm track verifies just a little south and east.
2. Colder temps this morning, plus snow pack may establish a colder start for the storms arrival.
3. NE wind= Cold air Damming. Most models are notorious for warming us up to fast. Take the Election Day storm for example... While it may not guarantee more snow, it could mean a longer duration of ice. That's not good for anyone! The freezing line often sets up near I-95 thanks to our geography and topography. The bay can warm up nearby areas, while the hills (500ft-1000ft) stay cooler, and lock cold dense air in the valleys longest.
4. Warming at cloud level will make this more of a wet/heavy snow (compared to yesterday), and likely push sleet or freezing rain for most of central Maryland during Friday.

Here is a breakdown of wintry precipitation:

The red layer show warmer temperatures (above freezing), above the ground which can remain cold. It all depends on how thick that layer of warm air.
Sleet: A raindrop has a thicker layer of cold air to refreeze before reaching the ground.
Freezing Rain: A raindrop does not freeze until after it touches the ground/tree/power line, etc.

Mid Day Update:
I am having a hard time accepting the morning model package. While there is trend down in temps (especially the GFS), I still think it is too warm. The range is from 33F-36F. That is for BWI. Remember Election Day? That was also a set up with below freezing temps lasting most of the day from Towson north. As for maps and charts and stuff... They don't show much, but I will try to get back on later today to highlight something. However, it all breaks down to this... There is pretty much a guarantee that it will start as snow, and drop 1-2 inches by daybreak. There is also a guarantee of mid level warming, so sleet and extended freezing rain will be the mid day and afternoon story (north). The potential is for 1/2 inch of ice on top of the snow. That could allow it to stick better and cause the power problems late in the day.
So I am sticking with my initial forecast I have above. Depending on how fast and intense the snow builds in, will be the ultimate test for how much we end up with. For many, not much more than when you wake up- because of the change over.

What goes up, Must Come Down...

"Spinnin' wheel, got to go 'round"- Blood Sweat and Tears.
Another 60's throw back for you Classic Rock fans. Yesterday behaved as expected, except the temperature shot higher (71F-not a record). now we watch the downward slide on the thermometer. I had a conversation with some of the guys at the gym yesterday... we were talking about the big warm ups before some of the historic storms in Baltimore. It is a sign of volatility and atmospheric energy as a ridge that will bring that warm air will be followed by a deeper trough with colder air to feed into a new storm. If you remember something like this- share it in the comment section below.
First thing to watch is how the temperatures behave. I have called for 44F today and 38F tomorrow. If it verifies colder, then the models may not be handling this very well. The cold air will get reinforced by a clipper passing tomorrow afternoon. I have noticed that the trend has pushed it farther south in the past few days. Here is the NAM outlook for Wednesday afternoon. It may not look like much, but it is now poised to give us up to 1 inch of snow as it locks in the arctic air. I do think we have a chance to clear out in time for the Total Lunar Eclipse Wednesday night.

Spinning the wheels for the end of the week, and it looks like your wheels will be spinning on something Friday morning. While there is a tremendous amount of information to digest, I know I have lost some of you with technical overload here. I still plan on getting some of the highlights out, but here is a simplified breakdown for the two primary mid range models I have been following. The Canadian on the right shows an inland track that will likely start as snow Thursday night, but bring ice Friday morning. Depending on the true behavior, this could be a heavy ice event, or eventually turn to rain as the surface low passed just north and west of central Maryland dragging in warmer air. This would be heavier precipiation, but gone Saturday. It does set up a coastal storm for us on Monday.

The GFS model projection here keeps the surface low to our south. That means precipitation will not be as heavy, but stay snow or ice. Little or no rain with this scenario... The GFS does linger snow showers into the weekend with one last burst Sunday morning. It brings another storm (inland runner) our way Tuesday.

Again, this is the over simplified version of what I see now. But I will follow throughout the week. I will introduce more models projections as I see fit, but these will be the benchmarks for how many forecasts will evolve over the week.

Cupid's Cruel Trick- Ice-2nd Year in a Row

It was exactly 1 year ago- just before Valentine's Day, when we had to deal with one of the worst sleet storms in recent memory.
Here is a cleaner map that what I posted last night. I must say that I-83 from PA line south is mostly wet, but a lot of ice has collected on trees, power lines and side roads. Yesterday's snow added to it north of Mt. Carmel... so the threat of downed trees and power lines will be increased in the areas highlighted here: North Harford Zone, Hereford Zone, and Carroll County.
In fact, these areas will likely add more ice this morning, as near the beltway temperatures are ranging from 31.5F to 32.5F However, there are spots near 34F- so the warm air is slowly winning. It will be tough to point out who is still icy. Just play safe, as ice does not melt immediately. In fact a layer of rain water on top of melting ice could be just as slick!
For the latest closings- click here.

If you have an ice story or pictures (after sunrise), please send them to me at the station: berk@wmar.com

ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7AM

This is just a quick, dirty and blurry copy from the NWS page. I just got the warning issued at 6:45pm. It has become obvious that this cold air will not budge tonight. Again I must beat myself for not following my own rules. Cold Air Dams always last longer than the models indicate. This morning's light snow was important for just coating the ground and reinforcing the cold air. It did so by moistening the air, while holding temps in the 20s. The map here (while a little fuzzy) does clearly show how these cold air dams lock in between the Chesapeake Bay and the mountains. While an easterly wind will gradually warm us up into the mid 30s, farther inland will have significant icing. The late afternoon (18z) NAM model has indicated a chance for up .2" of ice near I-95 and the city, while inland in Howard, Carroll and northern Baltimore counties- up to 1/2 inch of ice could drop trees and power lines. Of course the build up on roads will likely delay or close schools. I would still do the homework and have an easy day tomorrow. It will not be easy on my end. I will be up and out the door by 2:30am just to make sure I can get to work on time and alive. I HATE ICE! But I will have the most extensive look at it on the air in the morning. Hope you can tune it... it's still ratings month you know.....

Feb's in With Freezing Rain

I am a little confused by what NWS is doing with their advisory naming. Last night's Freezing Rain Advisory is now A Winter Weather Advisory- but it's just freezing rain. It already confused my morning producer, and I am sure it might have for you as well. Here is the latest map. As of 4:30am- temperatures in Carroll and Baltimore County - north of Towson were 28-32F. Most of Howard was 30-32F with our station at Howard Comm College at 33F. Ice will be widespread north, and more patchy close to the beltway. Even ABC2 Studio temp is 31F as I write this. Just be careful!
Below is the Storm Prediction Center's risk for Severe Weather as well. It will be a busy day, so not much time here to write. However, when we get ice and cold air damming, it is hard to break that wedge. I would hold the best chance of anything severe farther south and east...perhaps near Salisbury as temps surge to near 60F there. The parameters are marginal, but there will be strong winds and fast rising air that could spawn an isolated 'spinner'. Otherwise, rain will be heavy this afternoon for all of us.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY

As expected the chance of ice was extended to surround the Baltimore Beltway north and west. So Baltimore County- north of Towson, and Howard County were added to the map below. The Winter Storm Watch is now a Freezing Rain Advisory. It should warm to above freezing during the morning- before the heavy stuff moves in..., but some places could see 1/4 inch accumulation. Otherwise, just slippery in the morning on the roads, especially it it starts just before sunrise. Say 3am-6am. That's no fun for anyone. At least I have something to talk about tomorrow morning....

No Snow, But Ice Just West

Here is the GFS depiction for Friday- Feb. 1st morning. The same High Pressure that is bringing us sun this morning, will depart in New England, and result in a North Easterly wind. This piles cold, dense air up against the mountains.
Depending on the wind direction, the cold air could get locked in place through the afternoon and lead to extensive ice problems. If the wind turns more due east- then it would bring in warmer air and turn all sections over to just rain faster. Note: Sleet bounces- Freezing Rain sticks and accumulates on trees, etc.
Timing will also be important. It looks like the arrival will be just before sunrise. If it arrives later that will allow some warmer air to work in and lower the ice threat. If it arrives earlier, then the ice could be more widespread and linger longer into the morning. While I think there may be some potential ice at the start in parts of Howard and Baltimore Counties, the best chance for it to linger will be farther north and west. As the storm cranks into Ohio, it should pull the warm front through central MD and bring temps up in to the lower 40s.

Windy Wednesday

Plain and simple- It will be windy! I noticed a trend at my old house- that we often had strong winds on Wednesday. Essentially it was Garbage Day and my cans would end up down the street. This is also the type of day that small dogs turn into kites... No- but you will feel it while driving. Especially if you drive a minivan or SUV.
This is all a result of that strong storm in the mid-west that caused Blizzard conditions in Iowa yesterday.


This morning- temperatures took a hard core dive behind this storm. Here are the 6am temperatures, showing a hint of our downturn later on. The net result of this chill, will be colder than expected. Temperatures will drop this afternoon, and continue overnight until we settle in the teens Thursday morning. This cold air may lock in as the next storm races in. The timing of the next event will be crucial, but close enough to be watched. There is a chance the cold air gets dammed in with a NE wind. So as the next storm brings in it's warm moist air aloft, a great set up for an ice storm. While I think our ice would be just a morning thing and give way to warming- it could be a big deal just north in central PA. Either way, a chance we you teachers and kids might get some extra sleep Friday morning- stay tuned.

Winter Storm-Not For all

No Snow=No Shave: Day 14 I need 2 inches to fall at BWI to shave, this might be a close call there. More on my Snow Page (link above)
Yes, this is the same storm I blogged about over last weekend, then let go a few days ago. Not completely though: The wintry mix was always in my forecast, I just didn't want to get too excited over this, and we kept the lines down at the stores.
I am still close to what I said yesterday. The difference is the early arrival catching up and holding some slightly colder air in place. Don't expect to see anything on your way to work or school, but you will be at the window watching it around lunchtime.
Here are the basics:

• Snow begins for all 9am-1pm
• Mix and change to rain city/south by evening.
• I-95 will separate snow/ice north- rain south.
• Check road pavement temperatures for potential slick spots.
• Icy problems Friday morning in Advisory areas.

Check my TV Weather Graphics and Stuff Pages- Our StormCenter Doppler eliminates the false flakes (virga), while the regional radars will look like it is much closer. This will be a busy day, so I may not be able to post about models, etc. I will hop on quickly and update the snow arrival right here- so check back.
Just wanted to give the basics, and thank you all for spreading the word about my site. Don't forget to get all of your friends to turn the channel to ABC2 as well.

Major Ice for Some, Others Get None

Fellow weather geeks that have followed the models have seen the trend. The poll at the right reflects the shift to a track farther west. Is all lost? The arctic air has not truly built in here, and the tropical feed into this system will have dramatic warming on the east side. Again, for simplicity, I have been comparing just one model - the GFS - all week to show how elements can change. This also proves my point from earlier this week with that ridiculous snowcast on Tuesday. There are so many models to look at and decipher, many layers of the atmosphere, and text extractions (that won't look pretty here). If I showed it all I would run out of room on this blog- and bore half of you out of here. So let's stick with the basics and continue with the GFS which in fact I think is doing the best job. If you want to discuss other models, you can shoot me an e-mail. I'll try to get back with all of you (but it is the weekend). Here you can see the primary Low still dominant Sunday morning, and slower development of the secondary low. That second low is too close to us, and not off of the coast- which allows the warm flow to dominate. Some areas will get hammered! North/Central PA through central New England will get a major ICE STORM. This may include parts of central MD- but warm air will scream in here Sunday morning. The 'vertical velocities' and tropical support from Olga will produce heavy rain rates and likely thunderstorms... especially for the Eastern Shore. Where the cold air holds longer, moderate icing of 1/2" or more is possible. I think that will be confined west of us.
Even though some sun and warming have taken place today, keep this in mind:

• Low dewpoints will allow for evaporational cooling. The initial precipitation evaporates and drops the temperature to the Wet Bulb level. So when it starts, it will get cooler. At noon BWI was 35F with a dewpoint temp of 19F. That gives a wet bulb near 26F. I don't see us dropping that low, but it should go back below freezing when 'stuff' begins between 4pm and 7pm.
  
• NE winds will lock in that cold air longer farther west and in valleys. While I have a general forecast map, elevation will play a role in ice- in this case, lower levels get more as warm air reaches hill tops first.
• Sunday morning potential for temperatures near 50F with heavy rain in the cities. The may be a sharp boundary with the cold air's last stand. Depending on the actual time and position of 2nd Low, will determine when the wind shifts and cold air filters back in.
• Sunday afternoon: A brief period of snow may be enough to coat the ground, or an inch or so. It's the quick drop in temps that would cause a quick freeze of anything wet.
• Sunday Night's Winds 30-50mph may drop trees and power lines

My First Call- Updated and fixed diagram

Before I get into my 1st call, a reminder that a new Snow Poll is at the right side here. That is your 1st call for total snow at BWI. This includes beginning and end of storm, by Sunday night.
Also, a lot of questions on freezing rain. Here is a great animation explaining winter precipitation. As warm air works in to a storm, it often rides above the ground first, while cold air which is more dense stays at the surface. Depending on how thick the layer of warm air is, and how warm it is will determine:

1. If snowflakes from the clouds melt.
2. If there is a chance to refreeze before reaching the ground.

• Sleet- Melts then refreezes
• Freezing Rain: Falls as rain, freezes on the ground.

The most extreme I have seen was in Danbury, CT with rain at 19F. A few years ago we have drizzle at 21F in front of ABC2 Studios.

Being my day off, this will be brief... The models have been all over the place. There general idea I see is slower with the development of the coastal Low. This will make for a longer duration event. Considering the Coastal Low synopsis, it also means a better chance that we have an ice storm. Calling total snow will be tough since I still think we will see it on the bookends - both beginning and end of the storm Sunday evening. All snow line will be well to the north - highlighted in white. Most likely we get between 1/2 and 3 inches (north) of snow then change to sleet/freezing rain quickly after dark. This coastal Low during Sunday should bring us back to snow around noon. Depending on the strength and position we could pick up a few inches on the back side before ending. There is model support for the warm air to get in with temps in the upper 40s Sunday morning. I don't fully agree with that. Cold air damming usually is tough to break west of the bay. That is why I-95 or the bay often ends up as the dividing line. The cold air gets banked up just east of the mountains. Its possible that Frederick and Carroll counties have much more ice than Frostburg which will likely turn to rain closer to the primary low. Again this is 'roughly' what I see right now. It could all change with just a shift 50-100 miles on tonight's models. One thing to look out for is how cold it gets tonight. If we end up low to mid 20s before the clouds roll in, it will hold us lower at the onset. Updated at 3:30pm: It should be noted that storms like to set footprints for themselves. In this case the snow or ice pack can lock in the freezing air. But something that should not get left out is the wind on the back side of this storm..GALE FORCE in the metro areas throughout the region. That means if there is ice on trees, etc., it will be a major problem. Still thinking just north and west - as typical.
I'll get back Saturday morning. This whole event will also determine if I have to get back to work myself this weekend, so I have a personal investment here.