More Rain!

I just told my wife, "You not going to be happy for a few days". Oh, she's got a pretty good disposition, and it's Mother's Day Weekend. But she does miss the sun something fierce. There really is no way to sugar coat this. This morning's short wave and rain was a little surprise, one that could have bigger implications. The pattern may be a little faster than the models are crediting. That short wave should have passed this afternoon- the reason I added a chance of showers for this afternoon. The good thing is that it passed earlier, and we may still get some sun.
Here is the Canadian Model that I have been following all week. It has been fairly consistent with rain returning Sunday evening. The speed of this morning's system may indicate a faster arrival of Sunday's rain, which until now I had slotted for 'late' or 'by evening'. I know that is a little vague, but now I may have to start hinting to the time between noon and 4pm. That storm looks like a a cold one spinning off of the coast on Monday- a day we may stay in the 50s or cooler with a brisk north wind.
Well, I made a promise that I would not spend much time on the computer this weekend, and I off to do some shopping with the boy- so I'll be back Monday. Enjoy this afternoon, while you can!

Rain Today- More on the Way

We are in a wet pattern, and looking down the road. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a slight risk for SE Virginia (same spot as last week's tornado). We could have some thunder if temps I see this storm reaching it's full force with us Friday. Another storm arrives Mother's Day afternoon into Monday. A third storm will follow by Wednesday or Thursday. This may be good to knock down the pollen, and feed the grass seed. However, coming out of a drought- we could start to talk about potential flooding. If you click on tab Storm Page (on my main web site above)- I have posted a Warning Map, Radar (with a brighter color table), and Lightning Tracker. Many other maps and graphics can be found in the tabs as well.



MOTHER'S DAY OUTLOOK:

This is the third day in a row watching the Canadian Model with our next shot of rain on Sunday afternoon. This map shows the evening outlook for rainfall. This is not a snapshot, but a build up of the previous 12 hours. So the rain will likely develop during the mid afternoon hours. I am still holding out for dry 'brunch' time, but not the best of Mother's Days. Perhaps you can honor the moms on Saturday instead. At least that day looks dry.

1 Volcano , Hurricane Prep, Weather Channel Sex Storm

Chaiten Volcano Erupts

After more than 9,000 years of silence, Chaitén Volcano in southern Chile erupted on May 2, 2008. The plume of ash and steam rose 10.7 to 16.8 kilometers (35,000 to 55,000 feet) into the atmosphere, reported the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program. According to news reports issued by the AFP news service, ash blanketed the town of Chaitén, 10 kilometers away, forcing the town’s 4,000 people to evacuate by boat.
On May 3, ash and steam continued to billow from the volcano. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this photo-like image of a long, cloud-like plume flowing southeast from the volcano’s summit on May 3 at 10:35 a.m. local time (14:35 UTC). The plume rises high over the Andes Mountains, drifts across Argentina, and dissipates over the Atlantic Ocean. Ash closed schools, roads, and an airport in Argentina, hundreds of kilometers away from the volcano, said AFP.

Hurricane Preparation
While the death toll of the Tropical Cyclone in Myanmar continues to develop, Baltimore County held a mock hurricane drill yesterday. They staged a Category 4 event to prepare for evacuation, shelters, emergency management, etc. While I applaud the effort, I have to ask who came up with Category 4? Maryland has had only one direct hit from a hurricane in over 100 years, and it was a category 1.

Mother's Day Outlook

Here is another look at the Canadian model which for the second day in a row is showing an approaching storm on Sunday. While there are a few more days to sort out the details, it looks like a return to an active pattern for us. So plan for rain on Mother's Day- at least moving in the afternoon. Right now I would hedge my bets on brunch- but any morning sun will quickly fade as this storm approaches.



Sex Storm at The Weather Channel
A woman I briefly knew at Cornell is in the middle of a battle with The Weather Channel. The Smkoing Gun has more...

Mother's Day Dilema & Deadly Cyclone Nargis

Mother's Day Dilemma
Here is the Canadian model for Sunday. While yesterday looked dry, I mentioned on TV the chance of things changing since it was so far away. Now we look at a developing system approaching from the west and south, and may time out with a dry morning. The chance of rain will go up in the afternoon and evening- according to this model. There has been on overall shift towards a wet Mother's Day, but this is plenty of time to sort this out. Perhaps I just keep the chance of rain in, and if it turns out dry- we are all pleasantly surprised. Check back and I will follow this model all week.

Tropical Cyclone Nargis
First- Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes are the same thing- just a different name in Cyclone Nargis has made headlines for the past few days, but information has been trickling out of the tight military controlled country. Estimates of 10,000 dead in just one town with hundreds of thousands homeless and without food and water.
While it may seem early in the year for a tropical system, June 1st is the beginning for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here in the Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclones can occur in just about any month of the year. Below is a chart of the probability of Tropical Cyclones in this region throughout the year. You'll notice the year 'round activity, but a peak in May as the high sun angle acts on the warm water. Another peak in October and November as the sun angle slides south.
Here is a general idea of the location, and you'll notice that it is in the same area that was affected by the tsunami in 2004.