Rolling In Off The Ocean on a Storm With No Name

A no name storm yesterday leads to recently named storm this weekend. More about my paraphrasing lyrics and soon to be 'Hurricane' Kyle below...

I do want to start with this satellite image of our no name Non Tropical- Tropical Storm. The convection, or developing storms around the center of circulation appeared to develop an eye off shore. This storm was responsible for coastal flooding and wave heights over 15 feet. My newly beloved Outer Banks of North Carolina took a hit on Nags Head with flooding on Virginia Dare Trail and Croatan Highway. But just like many tropical systems interacting the east coast, the rain and wind spread out on the north side. That is due to the onshore flow. But was some dry air wraps in off of the land, I highlighted a dry slot in yellow. that has caused the heavy rain band to split to the north s the center of circulation continued to push westward into the North/South Carolina border.
This dry slot can bust a rain forecast for some while others verify. Yesterday's rain ranged from Baltimore: 0.28"
Eastern Shore's American Corner 1.63"
Ocean City: 2.00" (Doppler Radar Estimated)
The radar image from Thursday evening posted here shows the onshore flow and the broken bands of rain. That distinct eye like circulation made landfall between Myrle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC. The afternoon will generate more rain, but it's a matter of watching where they develop to determine where it goes.

While heavy rain hit the Eastern Shore and beaches that resulted in 1- 3 inches yesterday, the banding has split the rain into pieces. The models I posted yesterday, and the updates since still show the heaviest rain near the center of the storm to our south, and the tropical feed off of the Atlantic into metro New York to our north.

As I mentioned yesterday, the combination of this storm and strong High Pressure east of Maine have funneled steady and sturdy winds well north of the storm. Here are the strongest winds from Thursday's reported on our Storm Center Weathernet:
Delaware:
Fenwick: 52 mph
Lewes, The University of DE : 50 mph
Rehoboth, Beach Plaza Hotel: 57 mph

Maryland:
Ocean City Chamber of Commerce: 56 mph

US Drought Monitor Updated September 23rd...

"After nine days I let the horse run free
cause the desert had turned to sea
There were plants and birds and rocks and things
There was sand and hills and rings"
OK the classic song from America is a stretch, but I could not get it out of my head. Instead of nine days, it's nine months into the year to bring some relief to the drought in the southeast mountains and coastal North Carolina.



Here is the active link to the Eastern Satellite and Radar for you to compare what areas in need are getting hit with rain.

The second storm I mentioned is yesterday, that will hit New England is now Tropical Storm Kyle. This circulation around our storm will steer this quickly north. It should stay well offshore, but reach Hurricane status before clipping Cape Cod.




Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast.

I have to leave it at this point. I have a busy slate today, but I will try to post more on the rest of this storm and our weekend later today.

What a Storm!

I had a 72mph wind at my house. A few reports of 70 mph at Westminster and Glen Rock, PA. While I watched furniture fly around my deck- along with the grill- it was the top half of my locked door that pushed open that was most alarming. I stood there holding it shut, which may have saved the inside furniture from flying around. Wow! Here are some images our weather net station captured from Lakeland ES/MS. Notice the rainbow, the benefit of an afternoon storm such as this.
That was nearly 4 years to the day (well two days off) from the Ft. McHenry Water Taxi accident. I will try to post our ABC2 report and the Storm Stories report as well- later today.
Below are the images related to poll I put up this weekend comparing our new radar to the old one online.

Keep your Eyes on the Prize

Yesterday we reached 71F without the sun! That was an impressive show, thanks to strong southerly winds that gusted over 40mph. There were some trees down this morning, but that Tornado Watch thankfully did not result in any twisters- as of this posting (6am). The air pressure at BWI dropped to 29.47" or 997 mb on the barometer. That is mighty low and the main reason for our strong winds. However it only resulted in .38" of rain up through 6am this morning. That is well under the expected 1 inch or more. It sure sounded like more!
The strength of this storm will help to establish a little blocking as it winds up in eastern Canada in the next few days. That is a pattern that allow colder air to spill down the east coast. That will set the stage for an eastward push of our next storm. Before I get to that...
Spotlight: St. Louis, MO
Monday: High temperature 79F
Tuesday: Snowfall= 10 inches. A record for the date!

Now we can focus on the next storm for Friday and Saturday:
Here is the GFS projection for late Saturday. As you can see an impressive Low Pressure of 992mb will be passing off of the coast to our east. The 540 thickness line that we watch for rain/snow is highlighted in white. The strong northerly wind direction should allow some backlash moisture to survive as the cold air catches up. Here it does appear to have the chance of bringing a few hours of snowfall. The question that will arise is "can it stick"?
I would suggest now that would be based on timing. The higher sun angle, and recent warm stretch will hurt the chances of 'stickage' during the daylight hours. So while there will be a lot of talk about how much we can get- I can't go there. At least not now. If the timing changes, and we end up with overnight snow- then we could expect to talk amounts.
On that note, here is the Canadian model also showing a turn over back to snow on Saturday: You can see that the surface Low is a little faster, which would result in less moisture left over for snow- but could signal a chance of the whole pattern turning sooner or earlier in the day. Something to watch:
Surface Pressure Precipitation (6hr total)

The costof warm weather in March

March is known as the windy month- and storms like this help to prove it. While a slow moving storm (see the TV Graphics-Radars Page) will take all day moving towards us, it will be another warm one. Temperatures peaked at 68F yesterday. This morning, it was 60F at 5am! However clouds and the increasing threat of showers will hold us in check.
While we do expect showers this afternoon. Heavy rain will likely hold off until after dark. The model guidance for rain is between 1.00 and 1.50 inches. However is will fall on some frozen ground- at least just under the surface. That limits the soils ability to absorb rain- and will increase runoff. While there may be some standing water or big puddles on a few roads, I don't expect too much of a problem. Strong southerly winds along the bay will raise water levels there as well.


This storm is quite impressive. Snow was falling in Dallas last night as Charles Gibson was doing the evening news. Ohio will be the focus today not only for the primary, but the dramatic change as well. While temps are in the 50s this morning, A Winter Weather Advisory has also been posted for freezing rain and snow this afternoon.

Even when it gets cold, there is no consensus
NY Times Graphic crediting La Nina
This may not be the best time to drudge up the Global Warming issue again- but I heard a few comments yesterday when we reached 68F. Yet it was 78f back in 1923, and today's record of 80F was also set in 1923. I know and feel the frustration of our lackluster snow this winter (there is still hope), but I have tried to share the light the rest of the nation has experienced. In fact, it has been a rough winter around the globe- dating back to last winter in the southern hemisphere. This story in the New York Times- gives credit primarily to La Nina. There is currently a Conference on Climate Change in NY
giving a voice to advocates with scientific and climatological backgrounds that dispute what has been hyped in the media. This conference has not gotten much press, but you can find more information on their web site. As I often said to my students- make up your own minds- don't let me do it for you. Just take in all of the available information and make an educated opinion.

As for our chance for snow may not be far away... After I get a chance to see how this front behaves, I will look at our chance of weekend snow tomorrow.

It's Back............

Frigid end to February. Here is the famed 500mb map showing the vorticity or 'spin' in the mid levels of the atmosphere. While no organized system showing up no the maps, this shows us where there is energy to produce flurries or snow showers as the core of the arctic air moves in for a few days.
This is a slow progression, but lined up for all of us. So even if you had some sun this morning, this tells me that clouds will build quickly and all of us- not just the Hereford zone- have a chance at flurries or a snow burst this afternoon. I have been getting calls from weather watchers on the north end all morning. A few reports of a dusting of snow grains on cars and grass. So there is a chance of a light coating with some heavier bursts today. The roads are warm, and the temps will be 'warm enough', so I don't expect a road problem.
Call it a wind machine, as gusts over 30mph will push the cold air in and make it feel like the lower 20s.


Next up, more light snow. This system is for Friday will pass to our north. that is not a good track for us since it will provide a westerly wind that easts up the flakes on this side of the mountains. But there is a chance of snow showers late Friday into Saturday morning. Ironically, it will warm up behind this 'cold front'. This weekend should be a return to the 40s, but not for long.
There is a some buzz about a potential coastal Tuesday or Wednesday. Likely we get rain to move in on Monday- but a second storm may form as we get into the colder air mass, and it could get interesting....

Here is the GFS for March 4th. It shows a development far to the south- but well after a cold front pass with rain. This would depend on upper level support to bring this north- but now it looks like a kick out to sea- with marginal temps. Tomorrow a few more mid range models will pick up on this for their last time frame. If it still looks possible, I will touch on it. I know we are grabbing at straws, but time is beginning to slip away. While I still hold that we will transition to a much colder pattern, I'd hate to wait for late March and April (as in recent years), with snow that does not stick- let alone on Opening Day at Camden Yards. That is looking more possible.

Huge Jump Up- Soon The Hard Fall Down

First: The morning TV poll on the right will continue until Friday. As of this morning, about 1/3 of the voters [my stats show this blog is read by thousands and picked up around the globe :-)] actually watch other channels in the morning. I hope to find out why after the poll ends...

Yesterday's tornado outbreak may end up a record for February.... 68 reports of touchdown and a fatality count that continues to climb...

While we are in a slight risk for severe weather today, it will take an hour or so of sun to put us over the top and destabilize the atmosphere for us. Otherwise severe weather is almost a guarantee from southern Virginia to Georgia.
This strong storm is responsible for our spring like morning. As I went through my morning routine, and analyzed where the warm front was, I just went about my biz. At BWI it was 45F at 4am, but jumped to 60F at 5am! 1 hour- 1 warm front. It continued to warm to 64F at 6am. So there went half of my morning graphics. I had to make a quick adjustment, but still on track for today. I still expect upper 60s, although any little peak of sun could push us to the record of 70F back in1938. Again the 1930s show it's face with record heat still on the books....

This will be a busy day, so I just want to touch on the big change on the way. Below are the 850mb maps showing air temperature at about 5,000Ft aloft. Analysis below the maps:

















I left this map alone- not drawing on it- to show you what jumps out on it's own. The Low and cold front to ourwest today allowing out temperatures to rise. Today's yellow shading shows 13C. compare that to morning surface temperatures around 65F

On Sunday morning, you can see another Low Pressure in the Gulf of Maine. It's cold air wrapping around and bringing us temperatures (shaded in red) of -22C. That alone is a 35 degree Centigrade drop. that could translate to surface air temperatures between 15F and 20F.

Windy Wednesday

Plain and simple- It will be windy! I noticed a trend at my old house- that we often had strong winds on Wednesday. Essentially it was Garbage Day and my cans would end up down the street. This is also the type of day that small dogs turn into kites... No- but you will feel it while driving. Especially if you drive a minivan or SUV.
This is all a result of that strong storm in the mid-west that caused Blizzard conditions in Iowa yesterday.


This morning- temperatures took a hard core dive behind this storm. Here are the 6am temperatures, showing a hint of our downturn later on. The net result of this chill, will be colder than expected. Temperatures will drop this afternoon, and continue overnight until we settle in the teens Thursday morning. This cold air may lock in as the next storm races in. The timing of the next event will be crucial, but close enough to be watched. There is a chance the cold air gets dammed in with a NE wind. So as the next storm brings in it's warm moist air aloft, a great set up for an ice storm. While I think our ice would be just a morning thing and give way to warming- it could be a big deal just north in central PA. Either way, a chance we you teachers and kids might get some extra sleep Friday morning- stay tuned.

Severe Weather, Christmas Outlook

Rain, Thunderstorms, and strong winds. Another round of rough weather, unbecoming of winter. Well, actually it is.. except the storm track is well to our west, so we get the warm side . You can follow along on the TV Graphics- Radars and Stuff Page. Basically, we have a fog advisory, wind advisory, bay coastal flood watch, oh and the chance of thunderstorms. I am on nights this week, starting tonight. So I will update graphics this evening.
SNOW: Yesterday I began working on compiling some snow data for Baltimore. Rather than overload the circuits on this topic, I am going to do a series this week on Baltimore Snowfall by the decades. While many people say, "It used to snow a lot more", you might be surprised by some of the data. Since it is a holiday week, that will be my main focus in this weeks posts.

Our hopes for a White Christmas

While it will likely remain mild after this storm passes, there is still a shortwave that could produce showers on Christmas- despite your Weather Channel forecast not showing it. I continue to put a small chance for Tuesday/ More tomorrow. On average, we have about a 20% chance of a snow on the ground in Baltimore for Christmas. That's about 1 in every 5 years.

Report Card: A Whole Lot of Nothing?

Here is the verified surface weather map for Sunday morning. The same time frame I was using with the GFS model all week. Overall, I think it did a good job with positioning. The major problem was the delay in the initial precipitation. Since it began for most of us between 7pm-9pm, the atmosphere had a chance to warm up a little and not produce the snow or sleet expected. That would have helped to hold the temps down longer, and result in more ice. I did notice many spots did have some icing north and west of the beltway. Even ABC2 was down below freezing until midnight, so some ice did build up, but not much.
Here was what I woke up to: I live north in 'hill country' and did not break to 33F until 4am. This begs the question: Does it count if you slept through it? I've often wondered that. That goes along the same lines as you hearing a forecast for snow, but it's not in front of you house. So if it happened, but not for your area, is that a busted forecast?
This brings up another poll questions I have posted at the right.
I may be hard or easy on my own forecast, but how would you rate it? If you have not been following all week, you can scroll down for all of the previous blog posts. I held off on early snow maps, but even when I put out about 1 inch, it did not happen. We got ice, but later, and less than expected. If you see my map below, the purely rain area, including Baltimore City and BWI were on target. So how did I do? I give my forecast a B/B-. Not exact, but not bad. Am I being too hard or too nice? I am polling just straight letter grades for simplicity. You 2ns Guess poll results show most of you caught on to the rain winning...
The final part of this storm will be the wind. We do have Wind Advisory for this afternoon and tonight. While we may see a snow shower- especially north and west... we should all have winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph.
If you can watch the Patriot Game in New England. They will be dealing with the heart of this storm. On the edge of ice and snow, could make for near white out conditions....

Major Ice for Some, Others Get None

Fellow weather geeks that have followed the models have seen the trend. The poll at the right reflects the shift to a track farther west. Is all lost? The arctic air has not truly built in here, and the tropical feed into this system will have dramatic warming on the east side. Again, for simplicity, I have been comparing just one model - the GFS - all week to show how elements can change. This also proves my point from earlier this week with that ridiculous snowcast on Tuesday. There are so many models to look at and decipher, many layers of the atmosphere, and text extractions (that won't look pretty here). If I showed it all I would run out of room on this blog- and bore half of you out of here. So let's stick with the basics and continue with the GFS which in fact I think is doing the best job. If you want to discuss other models, you can shoot me an e-mail. I'll try to get back with all of you (but it is the weekend). Here you can see the primary Low still dominant Sunday morning, and slower development of the secondary low. That second low is too close to us, and not off of the coast- which allows the warm flow to dominate. Some areas will get hammered! North/Central PA through central New England will get a major ICE STORM. This may include parts of central MD- but warm air will scream in here Sunday morning. The 'vertical velocities' and tropical support from Olga will produce heavy rain rates and likely thunderstorms... especially for the Eastern Shore. Where the cold air holds longer, moderate icing of 1/2" or more is possible. I think that will be confined west of us.
Even though some sun and warming have taken place today, keep this in mind:

• Low dewpoints will allow for evaporational cooling. The initial precipitation evaporates and drops the temperature to the Wet Bulb level. So when it starts, it will get cooler. At noon BWI was 35F with a dewpoint temp of 19F. That gives a wet bulb near 26F. I don't see us dropping that low, but it should go back below freezing when 'stuff' begins between 4pm and 7pm.
  
• NE winds will lock in that cold air longer farther west and in valleys. While I have a general forecast map, elevation will play a role in ice- in this case, lower levels get more as warm air reaches hill tops first.
• Sunday morning potential for temperatures near 50F with heavy rain in the cities. The may be a sharp boundary with the cold air's last stand. Depending on the actual time and position of 2nd Low, will determine when the wind shifts and cold air filters back in.
• Sunday afternoon: A brief period of snow may be enough to coat the ground, or an inch or so. It's the quick drop in temps that would cause a quick freeze of anything wet.
• Sunday Night's Winds 30-50mph may drop trees and power lines

My First Call- Updated and fixed diagram

Before I get into my 1st call, a reminder that a new Snow Poll is at the right side here. That is your 1st call for total snow at BWI. This includes beginning and end of storm, by Sunday night.
Also, a lot of questions on freezing rain. Here is a great animation explaining winter precipitation. As warm air works in to a storm, it often rides above the ground first, while cold air which is more dense stays at the surface. Depending on how thick the layer of warm air is, and how warm it is will determine:

1. If snowflakes from the clouds melt.
2. If there is a chance to refreeze before reaching the ground.

• Sleet- Melts then refreezes
• Freezing Rain: Falls as rain, freezes on the ground.

The most extreme I have seen was in Danbury, CT with rain at 19F. A few years ago we have drizzle at 21F in front of ABC2 Studios.

Being my day off, this will be brief... The models have been all over the place. There general idea I see is slower with the development of the coastal Low. This will make for a longer duration event. Considering the Coastal Low synopsis, it also means a better chance that we have an ice storm. Calling total snow will be tough since I still think we will see it on the bookends - both beginning and end of the storm Sunday evening. All snow line will be well to the north - highlighted in white. Most likely we get between 1/2 and 3 inches (north) of snow then change to sleet/freezing rain quickly after dark. This coastal Low during Sunday should bring us back to snow around noon. Depending on the strength and position we could pick up a few inches on the back side before ending. There is model support for the warm air to get in with temps in the upper 40s Sunday morning. I don't fully agree with that. Cold air damming usually is tough to break west of the bay. That is why I-95 or the bay often ends up as the dividing line. The cold air gets banked up just east of the mountains. Its possible that Frederick and Carroll counties have much more ice than Frostburg which will likely turn to rain closer to the primary low. Again this is 'roughly' what I see right now. It could all change with just a shift 50-100 miles on tonight's models. One thing to look out for is how cold it gets tonight. If we end up low to mid 20s before the clouds roll in, it will hold us lower at the onset. Updated at 3:30pm: It should be noted that storms like to set footprints for themselves. In this case the snow or ice pack can lock in the freezing air. But something that should not get left out is the wind on the back side of this storm..GALE FORCE in the metro areas throughout the region. That means if there is ice on trees, etc., it will be a major problem. Still thinking just north and west - as typical.
I'll get back Saturday morning. This whole event will also determine if I have to get back to work myself this weekend, so I have a personal investment here.

Something Blowing in the Wind

Wind Advisory Today- Gusts to 50mph
My Morning Headlines are now posted at the right. Click on the image for a full view. Also, reminder, my full web site is now ready. Click the link and you can find "My Blog" posted there in addition to much more local weather images.
I had a little ice yesterday morning, but since I live up north - I knew it was isolated. Soon we will all get to share a scene of winter. As the storm winds up in New England, a very potent Polar Air Mass moves in. The transition will result in damaging winds today. But as we jump ahead to Wednesday, the indication now is that we may repeat 4 of the last 5 years. December 5th tends to be our first day with snow in Baltimore - (More on tomorrow). Here is some of the model support:
First: My favorite for winter events is the Canadian. Here you can see the clipper in central Ohio on Wednesday afternoon. I highlighted the potential snow line in yellow, as the precipitation moves in during the afternoon hours. This type of system does not often have a lot of moisture with it, but this quick move and path likely overhead or just to our south, will give us it's full punch. Early bet on 1" accumulating or more. The real indication of the amount begins about 60 hours before the event, which would be this morning's package. If i see anything significant, I'll update it here.
Either way, the support for cold air is seen here on the GFS. A nice trough in the 850mb level showing the cold air aloft to our north continues to flow in. This map shows the important freezing line south of central Maryland. So even though high temperatures will be above freezing at ground level, cloud level support for snow is there with temperatures -4C to -6C.
Behind this, another quick moving system will reach us on Friday with wintry mix. Looks like winter is here, and glad I finished my new web site just in time. Please see the link above and surf around. If there is something more you would like to see- contact me.

Birthday of a weather legend:
Anders Celsius: 1701-1744
astronomy was his passion, but he made a major contribution to science with a simplified temperature scale. Instead of the Fahrenheit scale which ranges from freezing of 32F to boiling at 212F, Celsius developed his scale based on 100 degrees. He did attempt to turn things around, and use 0 for boiling and 100 for freezing, but this was reversed back to the way we know after he died.
From a scientific standpoint, this makes the math much easier working with the metric system (based on 10).
In terms of weather, the rest of the world uses Celsius except the USA. Perhaps we are stubborn to change, but the wider variation of numbers does make it easier to explain a range of conditions. It sounds odd to think a warm day in the summer would be 30 degrees C, instead of 86 degrees F. Yet having freezing at 0C does make sense. All upper level data is measured in Celsius and used for all mathematical computer models.
Locally, our rain was a disappointment. At least officially. BWI measured only .16", yet northern sections of Carroll County picked up much more. Manchester recorded 1.28", and is only about 30 miles from BWI. Today will be a reversal of fortunes. The warm air surged in last night, and we were still at 62F at midnight. As the strong winds shift to the northwest, we should stay in the 50s or get colder this afternoon.