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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

It's Back............

Frigid end to February. Here is the famed 500mb map showing the vorticity or 'spin' in the mid levels of the atmosphere. While no organized system showing up no the maps, this shows us where there is energy to produce flurries or snow showers as the core of the arctic air moves in for a few days.
This is a slow progression, but lined up for all of us. So even if you had some sun this morning, this tells me that clouds will build quickly and all of us- not just the Hereford zone- have a chance at flurries or a snow burst this afternoon. I have been getting calls from weather watchers on the north end all morning. A few reports of a dusting of snow grains on cars and grass. So there is a chance of a light coating with some heavier bursts today. The roads are warm, and the temps will be 'warm enough', so I don't expect a road problem.
Call it a wind machine, as gusts over 30mph will push the cold air in and make it feel like the lower 20s.

Next up, more light snow. This system is for Friday will pass to our north. that is not a good track for us since it will provide a westerly wind that easts up the flakes on this side of the mountains. But there is a chance of snow showers late Friday into Saturday morning. Ironically, it will warm up behind this 'cold front'. This weekend should be a return to the 40s, but not for long.
There is a some buzz about a potential coastal Tuesday or Wednesday. Likely we get rain to move in on Monday- but a second storm may form as we get into the colder air mass, and it could get interesting....

Here is the GFS for March 4th. It shows a development far to the south- but well after a cold front pass with rain. This would depend on upper level support to bring this north- but now it looks like a kick out to sea- with marginal temps. Tomorrow a few more mid range models will pick up on this for their last time frame. If it still looks possible, I will touch on it. I know we are grabbing at straws, but time is beginning to slip away. While I still hold that we will transition to a much colder pattern, I'd hate to wait for late March and April (as in recent years), with snow that does not stick- let alone on Opening Day at Camden Yards. That is looking more possible.

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