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Friday, February 8, 2008

The Low Down on the Cool Down

First: The final hours of my Morning TV Poll. I notice the wide range of viewing and hopefully will hear from some of you as to why? Better yet, what could we do at '2' , to get you to switch over to us. Again this is my own personal quest, and not connected to anything at the station. However, if you have any comments, please share them below:
As for the weekend, I am waiting for the morning models to come in. There has been some adjustment to how cold, based on the position of the trough. Still some questions about next week's potential snow as well.
Afternoon Update:

Here is the NAM 500mb vorticity map for Sunday morning. I've highlighted the vort max, and jet showing the potential for some of the Lake Enhanced snow showers surviving the trip over the mountains overnight. This trough will wrap a little tighter, and lift near the PA line during Sunday. That could help snow showers up near the PA line, but may allow the west wind to 'donwslope' and let the sun return on the south side. That could make the difference in the temperatures- so I had to adjust us up from my early call of 28F to now 35F at BWI.
It will be windy, and noticeably colder, but that will lapse a little during the week as we wait for the next event.

This potential storm next weekhas been all over the place. What appeared to be a slow moving arctic boundary, then spawning a coastal low well offshore and lingering snow for us- now looks like it may actually spin off a surface Low in the deep south and allow it to develop on it's own. Here is the GFS outlook for Thursday morning. This is 6 days out, but showing a surface low riding over or just east of Maryland. This will hinge on any cold air in place, but has potential for us to get snow. I will be watching this closely- well that goes without saying. But this is Valentine's Day as well as a planned visit to an Elementary School in AA County for our Noon Show. It would be Murphy's Law to cancel a weather visit for a weather event. Definitely not the first time... Either way- fellow snow lovers, there is hope. It was Valentine's week last year when we had our big ice storm.

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