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Monday, February 25, 2008

A Brand New Week!

What did you do this weekend??? I spent it hiding at home from angry snow lovers....Nahhhhhhhhh... In fact I made it up to Rountop for great snowboarding conditions. We may have gotten less than wanted/expected, but the local ski areas are in great shape.
As for that hype and percieved miss from last week... I and looking for a few video clips from our newscast last week. I did my best to NOT overhype the storm, and even said so on the air (if I can find the clip I will post it here tomorrow). But because of overwhelming coverage, and instead of 2-4 inches around the beltway, it was more like around 1 inch... it 'seemed' like a miss. OK, we expected more ice as well, but it was icy. Just thanks road crews and warmer roads for an easy day off Friday...
Almanac: Today is the anniversary of the hottest February day in Baltimore weather history. It was 83F in 1930. That year had two other high temperature records that are still on the books (Feb 20th- 76F, Feb 21st- 74F). That decade of the 1930's continues to show itself as the hottest on record for us The year of 1934 leads the charge with the most record highs still on the books. For those of you who think I am one sided... there were 9 record high temperatures set or tied in February since 1990.

Now this new week brings a little roller coaster ride...
Since I am not a once model forecaster, I wanted to show you the UKMET depiction for tomorrow morning. At this time, I do not see a major event, and it should be mostly rain for us a we warm back to near 50F. But the morning will be a close call. As we start off clear, and clouds roll in after midnight, there is a chance the temperatures get down close to freezing. Combine that with drizzle or light rain arriving at sunrise... and there could be an ice set up for the morning. Freezing drizzle can be more dangerous than freezing rain, since it tends to ice up faster, and not be taken seriously. Most likely this will be confined to our north, but worth a note. Otherwise, this will just be a rain event for us.

Behind this system will be a true arctic intrusion. While snow showers are in my forecast for us on Wednesday, it's the temperatures that need the headline.
Here you can see the 850mb (around 5000Ft) temperature of -18C on Thursday morning. That will translate to our surface air temperature in the teens. Despite sunshine, we will have trouble cracking 30F in the afternoon. That may set us up for a chance of snow on Friday... but I will hold back the reigns on that horse until tomorrow.

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