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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Final Snow Call- Today, and 5:30 update..

This is the map I will use on the air at noon. This bump up in snow total is based on the following:

  1. This looks like a repeat of Dec. 5th Storm. that track and strengthening phase while rounding the trough brought this same range.
  2. Colder temps mean more fluff in the snow.
  3. I see the potential for slightly higher amounts north and a burst near Rt. 50 from DC to AA County.

As of around 5pm, the radar looked very similar to my forecast split. It wasn't exact, but pretty darn close. That heavy band along Rt 50 from DC through the Eastern Shore was in line with my map an hour earlier. I know how a lot of you want to know how much 'at your house', that is why I tried to get more specific. I was impressed with this though, so I'll be tacky and quickly pat myself on the back... I did not account for warm roads and perhaps higher sun angle or thin cloud deck. That explains the wet roads until around 5pm.

Here is the 5:30 image from my place showing 2 inches. It's still coming down, and I feel pretty confident about my forecast verifying in most places.
I'd love to hear how much you got, and even see some pictures. If so, send them to berk@wmar.com, and I'll try to get some on the air in the morning.

More on this storm and Friday's in the post below...

2 comments:

Bill Szczytko said...

Thought you'd care to read this interesting post in a very interesting weather forum. Uses the experimental NAM which as you know goes live at the end of March.

Experimental NAM

I think it bares watching whether the storm is more supressed. Do you think it could be possible to miss to the west, to the north, to the east, and to the south this winter? HAHA.

Justin said...

Bill,

The NAM has had some biases in it's short life, which extends some of the issues it's predecessor the ETA had. Mainly a convective feedback that overdoes precipitation in certain situations. Too much too comment on here. The UKMET 72 Hr plot for 00Z Sat. also shows a surface position farther south and east, but after we get over running snow on Friday morning. I'll put fresh eyes in it tomorrow.