Fire and Rain= Mudslides. My Winter Outlook Snow Forecast

Standing Wave Clouds
This is the visible satellite image from 9:30am. It shows the distinct result of cold air rolling down from the hills and mountains to our west, and drying out. the ripples are the result of the air rolling up and down over the terrain. The more 'down' the air flows, the clouds thin out and eventually fall apart. The clouds appear to look like waves or ripples in a pond. While it was clear at Baltimore's Inner Harbor, half of our sky was covered in clouds, and just 15 miles west it was overcast. As the sun warms, mixes and destabilizes the air, more clouds will develop east of this line, and appear to shift it over the city. There still may be a flurry west of the city.


The National Weather Map shows two distinct problems, while the rest of the country catches a break.
Great Lakes snow will continue, even after throwing a stray flurry nearby today.
California has taken it on the chin this month. Record heat, wild fires, and now heavy rain. The result is a formula for mudslides. The ground can not handle the rain. The steep terrain and run off will cause problems today, but improve tomorrow.
A little piece of this will move east, but our next storm does not look impressive. In fact, I am going to jump past any flurry chance today and the light showers on Friday. The back end of the holiday could get interesting. A few days ago, I mentioned Larry Cosgrove's forecast for a coastal storm early next week. The GFS model did not have it, but it is not the best long range forecaster. However, it is what most of you see in one form or another in your long range forecasts. It did catch on to it last night. Below are just a few samples of what may happen from a few different views.
The Navy NOGAPS model does have a coast storm strengthen after passing north of Maryland Monday morning. The blue line would be the snow line, and is still too far west. This represents the cold air NOT catching up with the precipitation. The storm will dump heavy snow in New England, but NOGAPS has us with Sunday night rain, ending Monday morning, with maybe a flurry Monday evening, then clearing out.



The ECMWF or European model here shows Sunday nights map. The Low in the Great Lakes will shift energy to a developing low along the 'triple point' as it occludes. That basically means the cold air cuts off the circulation and a new storm forms. This secondary storm would not take form until Monday and after it has a chance to pass us by. Again, a near miss for us...
My trusted Canadian model does not show it either... Here is that same Great Lakes Low Sunday night into Monday.
so what to do, what to do?
There has been a tendency this season for the cold air to build farther south, and the timing of this systems mid range to be off.

So far, I have not seen much support for much of anything next week. Then the dark horse gallops back into the picture... The GFS..
Here is Sunday night's transfer of energy to the developing coastal. It may be hard to see, but the GFS has it farther south and east than any other model. Here is the low east of Ocean City, with the famed 540 thickness line (snow line in white) near I-95. That is contrary to what I showed above. The cold air DOES catch up to the precipitation. That would be a change over from rain to snow- but it looks light for now. This happens because it takes the cold air all the way down to the Gulf Coast, and allows the jet stream to buckle. This gets the cold air in here, while keeping the system closer to us.
Behind it is yet another, but strong storm off the coast. This is Monday night, along a very strong conveyor belt of energy and moisture aligned with the Gulf Stream. This might be too far away, but holding on to Larry Cosgrove's notion of something impressive.
I have cut out most of the technical stuff, and just tried to show the basic idea of what many of the models are doing or not doing. There is still a small glimmer of hope for snow lovers, and enough of a chance to warrant some attention on the holiday weekend. I thought I would take a little break- even though I have to work through Saturday. So if I see anything interesting pop up, I'll post it. Otherwise, it's just a matter of watching how this might unfold. The first order would be to gauge the Friday system. While it weakens, it should set up the next round of cold air. Depending on how that air mass builds south, could determine how the rest of the dominoes fall. Stay tuned....
{More Later}

Chilly Veterans Day. End Of Week Storm Update

This morning, we bottomed out with a low of 29F at BWI. That is the first time we were in the 20s since March 24th when the temperature hit 27F. The next storm, is still complicated, as it looks like it will go through a transition or shift of energy 3 times between now and Friday. This may not be a major storm, but it could spread out into two separate moderate storms overlapping. The importance is whether it sets the stage for the upcoming season. I follow the philosophy that our winter pattern often develops in November, and will repeat itself many times over the winter. So the track and behavior of the cold air with these storm tracks can be crucial in an active season. It may be stormy, but the track will determine whether it's snow or rain for us. But that is speculation, NO SNOW with this storm....

First it surface Low in Kansas this morning. that has already wound itself up, and shifting it's energy southeast (occluding). The new low will develop over Missouri, and head into the Great Lakes. It's the trailing cold front that will be out focus, tapping into the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. It the upper level energy in the jet stream that will help develop another surface low near New Orleans. So while the rain will look closer on the radar tomorrow, and spread clouds our way, it's south-not west we have to look for our rain.
Thursday will be our wet day, at least how it looks now. The ADONIS model we use on TV shows moderate rain just to our south by Thursday morning, on the way in.
This looks more like and over running event. That is the rain spreading way out ahead of the storm, and bumping into the dry air we have in place. While that would give hours of virga (false rain on radar), we should have an strong easterly wind to add moisture to the air, and I suspect it will be a wet Thursday.



Friday is the day to watch:
The GFS shows rain spreading in from the south, and I have analyzed a developing Low off of the South Carolina Coast. It looks a lot like the last storm. The model shows moderate rain regenerating itself in more of a conveyor belt along a stalled front in the mountains. That set up would keep us wet through Saturday. Notice the strong 988mb Low pressure in Canada. That will be the source of a cold air push behind this storm.. This is not a bad idea, since the low will spin out a day before if builds the cold air and drops south. If it pushes sooner, we could kiss the stalled front goodbye.



The Canadian shows more of a coastal low scenario on the coast. Here is the surface Low in western Maryland on Friday morning, with the larger 'cold core' Low in Minnesota. That is farther south than the GFS, and supports the energy transfer to the coast- ahead of the 'Canadian Cold Air Push'.
The heavy rain is laid out on Friday morning, just off of the coast, but the analysis give me the impression of a coastal low forming near the Georgia/South Carolina border. That would likely push off of the coast, and cut our rain off during the day Friday. A much different expectation giving the same starting point as the GFS.
This looks a lot more like the last two storms, and I have to go with persistence. So given that, let's carry the Canadian a little farther into the weekend. I like this models, because it does perform better in the winter with coastal storms, and it has a better resolution with cold air in Canada.

Here is the Canadian model for Sunday Afternoon. The blue line is the infamous 540 (dm) line of thickness, that translates to a rain/snow line with storms. This also shows the push of cold air surging in by Saturday night. The upper level energy will support heavy Lake Effect Snow, and may bring us the chance of flurries or snow showers by Sunday afternoon. I did not put it on my TV forecast, since I do have a tendency to be bias towards snow. I wanted to wait another day to see if this set up holds over the GFS. One thing for sure, this will push cold air down to the Gulf Coast, and overnight temperatures near freezing could reach northern Florida.
That is a lot to digest, and just two different models. Hopefully there will be more agreement on way or another with today's models. Stay tuned.....

Surpise Storm: Nor'Easter Bring Taste of Winter

Yup, this one caught me off guard! I was not alone, just look at the historic World Series game last night in Philadelphia. The first time 'ever' a game was suspended due to rain. They did not plan for it, but at least the score was tied when the game was stopped. They will 'try' to resume it today, but I have my doubts. The rain should stop tonight, but the strong winds may force the delay another day. Besides, do the Phillies want to potentially win with a sparse crowd?. I claim to be a step ahead of the models... and I think I was- but then I got trampled. I had showers for our north side, and during my update yesterday afternoon, I tried to explain why it expanded south. Well this 'spin' developed into a potent storm off of the coast overnight. This rapid development, with a pressure drop over the 1mb per hour to classify a 'bomb'. This has resulted in a dramatic wind field as it pulls cold air into the center. That is why we expect gusts up to 45mph today. Even as the storm pushes farther away, the winds will continue to whip up. This Advisory map tells the true story. Wind Advisories (tan) all the way up the coast. Winter Weather Advisories (light blue) in the Poconos and Catskills. Even A Winter Storm Warning (purple) for parts of Central NY.

Here is the snowfall forecast for NY, that may make your mouth water....well mine at least.
As the cold air spills in and turns the rain to all snow this morning, Lake Ontario will also enhance the snow, especially as the storm pulls away and the wind can do it's thing.
Binghamton will have a dramatic range of 2 inches to nearly a foot from their western towns to the eastern mountains. The mountains over 3,000 and 4,000 feet in the Catskills along with the Tug Hill Plateau- east of lake Ontario could easily see well over 1 foot of snow. I can't wait to see the pictures.
The final surge of energy will arrive tomorrow with more showers developing, and some could mix in snowflakes north and west of the beltway. That does include Baltimore and Carroll Counties.

Rolling In Off The Ocean on a Storm With No Name

A no name storm yesterday leads to recently named storm this weekend. More about my paraphrasing lyrics and soon to be 'Hurricane' Kyle below...

I do want to start with this satellite image of our no name Non Tropical- Tropical Storm. The convection, or developing storms around the center of circulation appeared to develop an eye off shore. This storm was responsible for coastal flooding and wave heights over 15 feet. My newly beloved Outer Banks of North Carolina took a hit on Nags Head with flooding on Virginia Dare Trail and Croatan Highway. But just like many tropical systems interacting the east coast, the rain and wind spread out on the north side. That is due to the onshore flow. But was some dry air wraps in off of the land, I highlighted a dry slot in yellow. that has caused the heavy rain band to split to the north s the center of circulation continued to push westward into the North/South Carolina border.
This dry slot can bust a rain forecast for some while others verify. Yesterday's rain ranged from Baltimore: 0.28"
Eastern Shore's American Corner 1.63"
Ocean City: 2.00" (Doppler Radar Estimated)
The radar image from Thursday evening posted here shows the onshore flow and the broken bands of rain. That distinct eye like circulation made landfall between Myrle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC. The afternoon will generate more rain, but it's a matter of watching where they develop to determine where it goes.

While heavy rain hit the Eastern Shore and beaches that resulted in 1- 3 inches yesterday, the banding has split the rain into pieces. The models I posted yesterday, and the updates since still show the heaviest rain near the center of the storm to our south, and the tropical feed off of the Atlantic into metro New York to our north.

As I mentioned yesterday, the combination of this storm and strong High Pressure east of Maine have funneled steady and sturdy winds well north of the storm. Here are the strongest winds from Thursday's reported on our Storm Center Weathernet:
Delaware:
Fenwick: 52 mph
Lewes, The University of DE : 50 mph
Rehoboth, Beach Plaza Hotel: 57 mph

Maryland:
Ocean City Chamber of Commerce: 56 mph

US Drought Monitor Updated September 23rd...

"After nine days I let the horse run free
cause the desert had turned to sea
There were plants and birds and rocks and things
There was sand and hills and rings"
OK the classic song from America is a stretch, but I could not get it out of my head. Instead of nine days, it's nine months into the year to bring some relief to the drought in the southeast mountains and coastal North Carolina.



Here is the active link to the Eastern Satellite and Radar for you to compare what areas in need are getting hit with rain.

The second storm I mentioned is yesterday, that will hit New England is now Tropical Storm Kyle. This circulation around our storm will steer this quickly north. It should stay well offshore, but reach Hurricane status before clipping Cape Cod.




Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast.

I have to leave it at this point. I have a busy slate today, but I will try to post more on the rest of this storm and our weekend later today.

Give That Thing A Name

That thing being this storm off of the coast. It is impressive. While Air Force Recon flights have determined that is was not 'tropical' in nature, it sure is behaving like it.
Here is the 3 hour active radar:
The wind field is stronger on the north side. At 6:30 this morning, Ocean City had winds to 46mph, and over 30mph were hitting Annapolis. The center of circulation off of the North and South Carolina coastline is not truly a warm core, but there is a banding nature to the rain as it advances west and north. It is also sitting over the warm gulf stream, which is helping it to develop.
I say "give it a name", not to add to the hype, but follow a protocol of consistency. Last year the National Hurricane Center named a storm that was actually Sub Tropical - like this one. It was May 9th when Andrea was named a 'sub tropical storm'. A hybrid of a tropical and mid latitude cyclone. By giving this current coastal storm a name, it would bring more attention to coastal communities as to the threat it poses, and add more credibility to researching this type of system.
So, what is that threat?
Wind will average 15-35mph around Baltimore, but a steady 40-50 mph with higher gusts is what I expect in Ocean city and parts of the Eastern Shore.
Flooding from a steady wind piling up water on the western shore of the bay.

Rain may provide more flooding. Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's outlook which highlights the heavies rain off of the coast. The red shading from Ocean City to New York City can expect 2.5 to 4 inches, while another wave of low pressure could ride into New England leaving them with 5 inches of rain or more. For us in Baltimore, I think 1-3 inches of rain is a safe call.

Below is the NAM Model outlook showing the 'coastal' storm sliding westward into North Carolina. The blue arrow shows the strong east to northeast wind as a result of the pressure gradient between this Low and the High off of the Coast of Maine. You will also notice that there is also a band of heavy rain that pushes into Long Island. NY Friday evening. Here in Maryland we will get split between the initial low and this second wave, but our primary shot will be tonight and tomorrow morning. The upper level low will ride overhead this weekend, keeping the threat of rain around, but easing up by Sunday.

Fog Video Coastal Storm

I can't believe I went all day with video posted that did not work. For some reason, You Tube does not like the computer model video I showed, so today I will just post the link. Before you check out today's video below- please help me out with the poll on the right. I know some of you have problems playing video on your work computers. This may help me with more posts in the future...
Below is video I recorded over Loch Raven Reservoir when I was working in 'News Chopper 11" back in the fall of 1998. It was a common scene in around sunrise, but I only took video this morning. In retrospect I wish I had done more.
This is Steam Fog that is pretty common in the fall with longer cooler nights, and water that is relatively warm.


To answer the question from yesterday: No, I do not think we can rule out another 80F day. We hit 79F Sunday and Monday. The normal high is in the mid 70s, so a bump a few extra degrees should not be that hard. Also, fall around these parts is a gradual change with give and take. Almost like a marriage with early compromise, until one spouse dominates. No, not in my house, but I digress. These cool snaps are part of the give and take. Often when it gets cool too fast, the reverse will balance out within a week or two. Consider this past September: The 6th was wet with a high of 78F, but by the 13th we were back to 93F. I do believe fall is settling in early than we are use to, and winter will be here by Thanksgiving, but a few more warm days will pop up in between.

The next few days will seem like fall is in full swing. Yesterday I tried to post a movie of the Canadian Model showing a coastal low pushing into New Jersey.
This morning, the outlook is not as threatening for us, but still quite wet. The initial low will slide into North Carolina and spread rain our way by Thursday afternoon and last into the weekend. Combined with strong High Pressure in eastern Canada, we will have a steady east to north east flow keeping us int he 60s and wet. A secondary storm will form off of the coast, but instead of reaching us, it will head towards New England. Here is a link to the Penn State eWall. Slide your cursor along the top (hours are listed as (f36, f48, etc) to see the movement of the Low Pressure off of the coast work back north and west.

Coastal Storm. Autumn Like Pattern Continues

(UPDATED @ Noon)
In addition to the cool air, and the upper Level Low in the lower Great Lakes and PA this weekend, this developing southern storm will also look like October or November. This Low Pressure rounds the corner and heads up the coast. I just caught it on the 12Z models right before my noon broadcast yesterday. There is a wide range among the models as to how this will play out. If it hugs the coast, we not only get more rain (and it will be the steady stuff), but it will keep our temperatures in the 70s. If it pushes farther off of the coast, then we could miss out and have a rather warm and humid day. I went for the cooler wet solution, an abrupt change from my call to keep us dry.

Here the NAM's 12Z output for Thursday morning. It once again has that Low well off of the coast, but some moisture lingering in a pre-frontal trough ahead of our next cold front. While it may be a different cause, the result may be the same... I have kept the threat of storms in for the afternoon as well.
Still, this is an impressive early season storm. I will be watching to see if this pattern tries to repeat and set up in September or October. After we get through this weekend, I see our chances of a heat wave for the second half of August go up...

Heavy Rain, Ending as Snow?

A slow warming this morning, but a dramatic jump in temps across the 'Bay. Here is the 11 O'clock snapshot of the radar with some temperatures to show the wide range. Just after clipping this, Easton dropped to 44F. The strong wind from the north, will bring back the colder air sooner. Besides, blowing my forecast of 44F, it will probably bring a snow change over sooner.
This developing coastal Low (see maps on TV Weather Graphics Page) will pull down the cold air before the moisture departs. My early thinking of a dusting up to 2 inches is on track... although a faster turn over could bring more in spots. There has not been much model support (other than the GFS) but they have not handled this well from the start. However, this coastal Low is wrapping up faster than the models can catch onto, so I think it will end sooner. Depending on how much moisture is left, there could be more snow east tonight. Either way, everything will ice up. Nothing else to do but watch it and wait for it to turn back.

BZzzzzzzzzzz... Shave Live on TV

Afternoon Announcement: I will take pics of the family reaction over the weekend and post them as well...



It's almost time. We have a busy morning, but the poll at the right might explain the delay in the shave. I am amazed by the response from many of you. Quite a few want me to keep it, others just to get my parents. Seriously, at this stage with a young kid- it's all about him. I was never a showboat, and this may be my last shot. So for those of you that think I am backing out- I am not. We did get the needed snow, and my promise will be followed through. Soon! ABC2 is working on the best way to share it.

Saturday's storm is not looking like our shot. Better chance for the Eastern Shore. I will try to post (if I can) this evening.
In the meantime, check out my Snow Page. I had faith in the flakes, and tried to encourage the kids that winter was not done. In fact check this out:
BWI Snow:

• Yesterday: 2.4"
• Season: 7.2"(1.8" above normal)
• Normal: 5.4"

The Snow was pretty close to the forecast map (see yesterday's post below). However Anne Arundel County got a surprise with more snow. I had mentioned on TV yesterday that we were aware they were not included in the Advisory. This was based on the temperatures expected to warm up just enough and turn them over to sleet and rain earlier (after 1-2 inches of snow). Instead, the burst of heavy snow arrived nearly at the start and helped to drag down colder temps from the clouds and hold it in long enough. Rates were 1-2 inches per hour.
I just captured some of the time lapse videos of the snow I showed on TV yesterday. I will post them here this weekend.

Winter Storm-Not For all

No Snow=No Shave: Day 14 I need 2 inches to fall at BWI to shave, this might be a close call there. More on my Snow Page (link above)
Yes, this is the same storm I blogged about over last weekend, then let go a few days ago. Not completely though: The wintry mix was always in my forecast, I just didn't want to get too excited over this, and we kept the lines down at the stores.
I am still close to what I said yesterday. The difference is the early arrival catching up and holding some slightly colder air in place. Don't expect to see anything on your way to work or school, but you will be at the window watching it around lunchtime.
Here are the basics:

• Snow begins for all 9am-1pm
• Mix and change to rain city/south by evening.
• I-95 will separate snow/ice north- rain south.
• Check road pavement temperatures for potential slick spots.
• Icy problems Friday morning in Advisory areas.

Check my TV Weather Graphics and Stuff Pages- Our StormCenter Doppler eliminates the false flakes (virga), while the regional radars will look like it is much closer. This will be a busy day, so I may not be able to post about models, etc. I will hop on quickly and update the snow arrival right here- so check back.
Just wanted to give the basics, and thank you all for spreading the word about my site. Don't forget to get all of your friends to turn the channel to ABC2 as well.

Is the Trend Our Friend?

No Snow=No Shave: Day 13
Hope you had a good view of the snow burst yesterday. It wasn't the 2 inches at BWI I need to end my beard. Here is the radar from Tuesday mid day, and a pic of the coating I had at my place.
In honor of my son's 2nd birthday, he let me use his buggy to show the snow. It melted pretty quickly though.

Skipping ahead to Thursday's storm, I have a hard time getting excited about this storm considering our track record since mid December. The guidance has us with a mix to rain , then perhaps some frozen junk at the end on Friday morning. Nothing pure, nothing clear cut. So this is when I rely on climatology. Hereford Zone and Carroll County with the chance of starting with snow and sleet, and ending with some ice. While we may be lucky to start with sleet or snow around the beltway, it's likely we turn to rain. Borderline temps will stay in the mid 30s.
Still on that arctic blast for the weekend. As it arrives, this 'snow burst' on Saturday should be more impressive than what we just had. By Sunday, afternoon temperatures should range from upper teens in Carroll County and southern PA to mid 20s by the bay.

The pattern is turning! We may have to shift our focus away from disappointing coastals, and wait for clippers. The long range for Thursday next week could look like the Dec 5th storm. I would be more than surprised if this worked out exactly as this view 9 days out- but the GFS model is still trying.

Snow Burst

No Snow=No Shave: Day 12; Still waiting for 2" @ BWI. check out my Snow Page for more.
Once again, here is the 500mb chart for this afternoon showing the vort max which should generate some strong snow showers. I have timed it out between 11am and 3pm. This is the type of set up that will not like too much until it gets close. Some mid day heating should help enhance the action, and I still expect gusty winds and a coating on the ground in spots.
This may act as a little cold front, although all it will do is slightly shift the wind and allow the skies to clear out tonight cooling us down into the lower 20s. It will, however allow a sunny day to bring us back to normal temps Wednesday.


The outlook for Thursday is still on the fence. While it is looking like that polar air and trough will not truly build in and is holding off until after the storm, the arrival might come with a mix as some marginal temps hang on- shown with the bold 540 thickness line on the GFS. The Canadian (white background), shows the Low a little farther east. Yesterday I mentioned the trend- and this trend east on the Canadian is better for us, but the cold air still gets pushed into PA. We can thank the the upper level flow around approaching Arctic air for that. This may act as a wave approaching shore, slightly warmer air gets pulled in before the crash of the cold. So while I disputed it a few days ago, the cold air doesn't really get in here until after this coast passes. In fact another short wave, or clipper will move through Saturday with our best shot of snow showers- leading the arctic charge.
This GFS 850mb plot is for Sunday morning. Here the temperatures at around 5000ft will be down to around -20C. That is -4F, and would translate to a struggle to reach the lower 20s on Sunday. If was have snow on the ground- it would likely keep daytime temps in the teens.

Another Dissappointment

No Snow=No Shave: Day 11
Sorry all! While I held on hope, perhaps you got the hint I was making yesterday in my post... it didn't look promising. So forget all that stuff about elevation and cold air aloft... we never had a chance to prove it as the storm generated too far east for us.
I was reminded of something as Tony Pann returned from vacation to take over the weekend and weekday afternoon reports on WCBM: First- A fresh pair of eyes, looking for the first time at the models Saturday night- were not biased from previous runs of a larger storm. Second- The trend is your friend. If the models are consistently lowering precipitation amounts for whatever reason, stick with that trend and lower your expectations. Also, this trend of 'just missing it', may be our pattern. It's been great for New England, as they get pounded again with 1 foot plus in spots. I wasn't too far off with this, but good thing I don't work in Philly. The 3"-6" inches I called for them ended up in NY instead. It was too fast and too far east, we never really had a shot. That is why I also posted Emily's map she put on TV last night. She won!
There is still a chance for Thursday/Friday. More later...
Once again, this is the anniversary of the Great January Heat Wave- 1932. I know this will anger some of you Global Warming folks who think I have an agenda, but this is just almanac fact. This heat wave 75 years ago included the warmest temperature ever in Baltimore onthis date-reaching 79F

Updated: Record Anniversary Heat Wave and Elevation Snow

This is a quick morning update. I will do my best to post this afternoon with a snow-cast map.
First: This is the anniversary of the most impressive January Heat Wave on record in Baltimore.
The year: 1932

• January 13th: 76F
• January 14th: 79F * Hottest ever for the month
• January 15th: 78F

As for tonight's storm, still on the fence. My basic impression is two-fold.

1. As coastal develops, cold air will wrap in at cloud level, surface temps will be bordering freezing. That means sleet and snow likely, but higher elevations will have a better chance for 'stickage' and some accumulation. Note: BWI is near sea level. Towson, Cockeysville and Owings Mills are a little over 400Ft. Reisterstown and Parkton are close to 800Ft.
   
2. Monday morning the storm pulls away, but 'comma' head or heavy precip around the low center may clip eastern sections. Based on temperature profile and track, Cecil county could be the big winner. Early sampling shows potential for 3"-6" from Cecil County to Philadelphia. While NYC and Boston could get 1 foot of snow. Around the beltway, elevation plays role for north side to have the best shot of 'stickage' and accumulation... but roads temps may also be an issue.

Afternoon Update:
The storm might not look like much when you go to bed. It will develop overnight, but looks like just past us. Once a Low Pressure center passes our latitude (north of 39.0N) then we tend to get downsloped and cut off our precip. That looks like the position of the Low when it rapidly develops. The NAM model here for 7am Monday is actually the most impressive. Most have it well past us by then. If you watched the Packer's game last night and saw their snow- it's that Great Lake's storm that is pushing this coastal development a little farther east. This is the 3rd model run with with less moisture and warmer temperatures. I does not look promising! I've highlighted the general forecast area in yellow while the comma head I mentioned above just clips Cecil County. If you watch Good Morning MD on ABC2 I will be focusing on this Monday. Below is the video blog and my snowcast map.

This map was my call from home, below is Emily Gracey's map from ABC2. I think her conservative call on snow will work out better than mine... this made be just a little farther east, and pretty much done for us in the morning.

Saturday 2nd Post Afternoon:

No Snow= No Shave: Day 9
Will schools be delayed or closed on Monday??? I know it's already the buz, but still uncertain. Below I have detailed why, but just a call for snow in the forecast is not what students and teachers (even my new friends at Cockeysville MS) want. The return of winter is a guarantee, and if there has not been a reason to shave the beard by this time next week, I will be shocked.
My GFS Video Blog is at the bottom of this post showing a few changes I don't trust. As for the first event- Sunday night and Monday: The mid range models (48-60Hr) are now catching on to it. Rather than just show a map plot (you can still see the GFS in this morning's post), I wanted to show some of the extracted text I look at. Below you will see the AVN grid from Texas A&M for BWI. This break down can be overwhelming, so I just wanted to point out the important features. More below image:
First in universal time 00Z (Zulu or Greenwich Mean Time) is at night. and 12Z is morning. So 00Z Monday is actually 7pm Sunday evening, and 12Z is 7am Monday Morning.
While the surface temperature is expected to be 34F-35F, the 850mb temperature (~5000Ft) will be -2F to -4F. That includes the 1000-500mb thickness below 540, and further breakdown not on this output (1000-700mb and 700-500mb) justifies either sleet or a heavy wet snow- that might melt on roads.
It's a very tough call. The total precipitation is .54" liquid equivalent. That's enough if all snow to give 3-5 inches of heavy wet snow. If it was daylight, I would say just wet roads, and white grass. At night is a different story. It's been warm for a while, so the chances of the roads cooling down and beating the trucks will be tough. It was have to be at it's heaviest on Monday morning, which it might be- to get a delay. But further south, the lower your chances (B'more city and AA County). The trend of all models is for more on the E. Shore but warmer temps and into New England up to 1 ft. near Boston. I'll do my best for a snowcast tomorrow.

Video Blog of GFS 240Hr Model:

CHANGES- It's back on for Monday Morning.

I should have stayed with my own advice. The GFS has a tendency to flip when longer than 48Hrs ahead of a storm. It looks like it is back on for Monday- but analyzing all of the data, it looks like a classic borderline forecast for us. Pretty good dose of moisture on last nights model run (over 1" liquid equivalent). I-95 corridor could be a very cold rain or sleet and snow. The GFS has BWI at just above 32F but some upper level support for freezing precip. Here is a quick look at the latest NAM. I have a busy morning, but will post what I can concerning the other models this afternoon.
That GFS video clip I did yesterday is still available below. I will try to do another one, which still shows two more storms, but some changes. All will depend on how this first thing behaves...

Report Card: A Whole Lot of Nothing?

Here is the verified surface weather map for Sunday morning. The same time frame I was using with the GFS model all week. Overall, I think it did a good job with positioning. The major problem was the delay in the initial precipitation. Since it began for most of us between 7pm-9pm, the atmosphere had a chance to warm up a little and not produce the snow or sleet expected. That would have helped to hold the temps down longer, and result in more ice. I did notice many spots did have some icing north and west of the beltway. Even ABC2 was down below freezing until midnight, so some ice did build up, but not much.
Here was what I woke up to: I live north in 'hill country' and did not break to 33F until 4am. This begs the question: Does it count if you slept through it? I've often wondered that. That goes along the same lines as you hearing a forecast for snow, but it's not in front of you house. So if it happened, but not for your area, is that a busted forecast?
This brings up another poll questions I have posted at the right.
I may be hard or easy on my own forecast, but how would you rate it? If you have not been following all week, you can scroll down for all of the previous blog posts. I held off on early snow maps, but even when I put out about 1 inch, it did not happen. We got ice, but later, and less than expected. If you see my map below, the purely rain area, including Baltimore City and BWI were on target. So how did I do? I give my forecast a B/B-. Not exact, but not bad. Am I being too hard or too nice? I am polling just straight letter grades for simplicity. You 2ns Guess poll results show most of you caught on to the rain winning...
The final part of this storm will be the wind. We do have Wind Advisory for this afternoon and tonight. While we may see a snow shower- especially north and west... we should all have winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph.
If you can watch the Patriot Game in New England. They will be dealing with the heart of this storm. On the edge of ice and snow, could make for near white out conditions....