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Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Coastal Storm. Autumn Like Pattern Continues

(UPDATED @ Noon)
In addition to the cool air, and the upper Level Low in the lower Great Lakes and PA this weekend, this developing southern storm will also look like October or November. This Low Pressure rounds the corner and heads up the coast. I just caught it on the 12Z models right before my noon broadcast yesterday. There is a wide range among the models as to how this will play out. If it hugs the coast, we not only get more rain (and it will be the steady stuff), but it will keep our temperatures in the 70s. If it pushes farther off of the coast, then we could miss out and have a rather warm and humid day. I went for the cooler wet solution, an abrupt change from my call to keep us dry.

Here the NAM's 12Z output for Thursday morning. It once again has that Low well off of the coast, but some moisture lingering in a pre-frontal trough ahead of our next cold front. While it may be a different cause, the result may be the same... I have kept the threat of storms in for the afternoon as well.
Still, this is an impressive early season storm. I will be watching to see if this pattern tries to repeat and set up in September or October. After we get through this weekend, I see our chances of a heat wave for the second half of August go up...

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