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Friday, August 15, 2008

Stormy Afternoon. We Could Do it Again!

The time line is the same as the day before. 4-7pm. only difference is the is that is was much more widespread, as you can see here, roughly two dozen hail reports in central Maryland.
Most of the these reports ranged from 1/2" to 1.00" with the largest in Baltimore County, and another seperate cell south of Annapolis in AA County.

Here is raw home video of the hail in Parkton (Northern Baltimore County) from Randy on our morning crew. Definitely impressive...Unfortunately it has come to my attention that there may be a problem viewing this in Firefox's browser...

So, could we do it again? It looks like it....
Here is the Slight Risk threat from the Storm Prediction Center
As this cold front approaches, I see as a slow mover, so we could be dealing with this throughout the afternoon and into tonight.
The slight risk is just for the threat of severe weather. That means 3/4" hail and wind over 60mph.
However the chance of strong storms is much more likely to be widespread. That includes these heavy rain producing storms and a tremendous amount of lightning.

Here are the upper level (500mb) charts for this evening and tomorrow.

Although the cold front passes, which usually brings drier weather...
I have a hard time ignoring all of this energy.
The vorticity or spin is highlighted in the green and yellow. When you see the vort max, that yellow blob, to our south, it usually translates to a good chance of convective activity for us. That can range from afternoon snow showers in the winter, to strong storms now. That is why I have held on to the threat of more storms on Saturday. I have gone out on a limb here, since the NWS and my department has continued to try and keep us dry. We shall see. But here is my support. What I found interesting is that the overnight models have leaned in that direction, but not all. This covers the entire spread!
NAM: High 74F, Cloudy with 64% chance of showers and storms.
NGM: High 81F, 21% chance of showers.
GFS: High 86F, Sunny

The 12Z (morning) run does pull back a little on the trough, so the chance of storms will be late morning through early afternoon. That could be followed clearing for the rest of the afternoon- for a decent day and slightly warmer temps.

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