Autumn in August

Did you like this weekend? Saturday was absolutely beautiful, but Sunday brought some flooding rain to Harford and Cecil Counties...
Here is the satellite image from Sunday evening. What an impressive upper level Low just over Toronto. This is a position I would expect in October, and the track southeast today through PA is quite unusual. As a result, it will be hard to completely fight off the clouds. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will fire up this afternoon- but mainly to our north.
This pattern is important for two reasons:
First: The sharp trough will likely propagate a large ridge within 3 weeks. Summer is not done, and I would plan for another heat wave by the end of the month.
Secondly: The pattern we have now, could be foreshadowing for a pattern this fall or winter. It's something Tony Pann and I discussed often on our old radio show - Weather Talk. Atmospheric Memory
This describes how patterns not only develop, but repeat themselves. Just a few things to look at...
Much like the drought we had last summer, it lasted into much of the winter. We ended up with a pitiful winter snow tally. Also, if we can get a ridge to time out for the end of August and into September, our chances of catching a tropical system off of the coast will go up. Tracks of such storms, can also lay the groundwork for Nor'easter paths to follow.

White Marlin Open:
Less than 1/10 of a pound is all that kept Rodger Mooney (Timonium, MD) from the big money prize in the White Marlin Open last week. As a result, a difference of about $750,000. Click here for the results...

It's Getting Old. More Rain, More Cold!

Sorry I did not post this weekend, the radar maps are fixed and I am back on track this Monday morning- with a fresh box of Kleenex. Just wait, while the trees and flowers are working already, one of these days it will warm up and fully kick into overdrive. But thankfully (while the allergies are bad enough) it is cool. For the month, we are below normal, and it looks like all of this week will stay there. In fact we will be averaging 10F-15F below normal for a few days, and winds will be gusting up to 30mph helping to spread that pollen around.

I did notice something interesting in the almanac...

Today's record low of 39F was set just 5 years ago- 2003. No big whoop, right? Take a look at the almanac yourself, you'll see that 10 record lows for May were set since 1996. Considering that the records go back to 1880, that is a statistical anomaly. Does this argue against Global Warming? Well, it's tough to use just Baltimore stats for that (although I often do). No, I would lean more along the lines of the shift in patterns. How often have you heard that we jump right from winter to summer? The reason is something I described a few weeks ago.

The blocking pattern in the North Atlantic (-NAO) is something we would look for in the winter to bring us snow, but have we had much snow- No!. It's a pattern that routinely develops in the spring- or this year in mid March as seen in the graph at the right.. The result is holding our temperatures down- seemingly delaying the warm up we would expect. As soon as the pattern relaxes, getting back to normal or slightly above will feel like a burst of heat. That is likely to be our June story. But for now- here is our upper level pattern. I've highlighted the jet stream in yellow. The upper level trough in the east is in part due to the Icelandic Low (upper right). It's a semi permanent position that can linger for months. So our weather can change daily from storm to storm, the track or path persists. While this pattern continues to keep the storm track over the mid Atlantic, it is also allowing the west to bake under a ridge (High Pressure). The haves and have nots- all balance out the extremes. While we will stay 10-15F below normal, Arizona will be 10-15F above normal That means places like Phoenix expect a high of 106F-108F. Not, that's not a record. That is 113F set back in 1984.

Pattern of warm and wet days. Phoenix Lights Answered (video).

Today will turn out to be another beautiful day with sunshine and temps in the upper 70s with low humidity. The story is that Thursdays and Fridays have been warm for the past month. I noticed this since I started running and use Thursday as my 'hills' day. Warm weather can make running hard- so it stuck out in my mind. Here's the warm pattern:
Thu- March 24th- 64F (+9) Fri - March 28th - 70F (+12) Thu- April 10th- 73F (+10) Fri - Apr 11th - 78F (+15) Thu - Apr 17th- 76F (+11) Fri - Apr 18th - 85F (+13)

The wet pattern is probably more noticeable since it falls on the weekends. I have noticed that 7 of the past 8 weekends have had wet weather. That is heavy weight in a statistical report. Here is the breakdown:
Saturday Sunday
March 1 (.02") 2-dry 8 (.24") 9-dry 15(.01") 16(.17") 22(0.01") 23-dry 29- dry 30-dry

April 5(trace) 6(.30") 12(trace) 13(.02") 19-dry 20(.65")
So as for this weekend....
With snow continuing our in the Rockies and severe storms in the south, you had to figure that our pleasant weather would not last long. Here are the forecast maps from the GFS model. A warm front will approach on Friday evening with a SE wind. That will be the sign of increasing moisture and clouds. Saturday's map here shows a cold front reaching us by evening with an increased chance of rain all day. Sunday map shows the tail end of that front will have another wave of low pressure develop and bring us more rain lasting into Monday.

Here is the video report from ABC News about the Hoax of UFO lights in Phoenix this week. No wonder the video was of video on a TV. That should have been the first red flag.

I Like What I See

First it was flurries - last night. It's a little early to get excited about snow, even though some ski areas are open. Our below normal temperature pattern is holding, yet this is just a balance of the heat we had in October and early this month. We are now just about normal at BWI as it stands today.
This pattern change however is showing promise. Here is the early week storm as seen by the Canadian model. Here you can see over 1 inch of rain for the south- including Atlanta, GA. Definitely a pattern change for them. This storm is coming from the southern branch of the jet. A sign of a winter pattern, one that will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. This is a signal for improvement in the dry south US. Nothing surprising here with our La Nina pattern. So what you see next is somewhat expected...


Looking longer range, I have posted the 5 day GFSx. This is the upper level 500mb flow. The spots highlighted are vort maxes, or pieces of energy that are ingredients for building storms.
The closed Low off of the southern California coast will open up and develop the next southern branch Low. While I highlighted a ZONAL flow for the eastern US, the jet itself should be located just south of the Great Lakes. So this time, there will be colder air in place. The pattern for La Nina would have these developing Lows ride west of the Appalachians. That means snow for midwest, and rain for the B'more and the rest of the I-95 cities. But if the cold air holds like we have now, then a slight push east with the next storm could shift snow and ice potential east as well. No Guarantees! But it is something to watch. Note: December 5th has been the 1st major snow event for Baltimore 4 of the last 5 years. It is about that time....