Bertha Rips Coast- From a Distance

It's been nearly a week and a half, and Bertha has slowed to a crawl- on the other side of Bermuda. While it has turned to corner, and is expected to stay far out to sea, the waves have made their way to the east coast. Bertha had some help. Here you can see the clockwise wind around the Atlantic High Pressure, and eave the counter clockwise flow around a wave of Low Pressure that has formed along our old frontal boundary just off the coast. All has provided the push of waves and rip of the tide. Here you can read how the lifeguards on the Jersey shore had to stay alert all weekend.

The added humidity and the approaching cold front from the Ohio Valley will spark some strong thunderstorms later today. The Storm Prediction Center has the slight risk of Severe Storms (large hail and damaging wind) for the mountains just to our west. I have two concerns here for us locally:
1st: The wind direction. Much like yesterday, I expect a south to southeast flow. That southeast wind direction adds humidity off of the bay, and upslope for the metro area north and west of the beltway. That can enhance any showers that develop in the mountains. So while you may sometimes watch storms in the mountains tear apart or skip north of us, this is a situation where we will have to watch whatever develops potential reach us by this evening.
2nd: There is a bit of traffic off the coast to our east. That will likely slow the front down. While the models have it passing through Monday morning, it may linger and keep the chance around for my round of golf in the afternoon. It's only my second round this year, so I have an agenda. I'd like to clear us out completely, but Monday afternoon showers may redevelop near the bay and the eastern shore...

Hippy Dippy Weatherman- Dead

The forecast tonight: Dark
"It's 8:00 in Los Angeles, It's 9:00 in Denver, It's 10:00 in Chicago. In Baltimore it's 4:42"

By now most of you have heard that comedian George Carlin passed away. While I can't repeat most of his 'stuff' here since kids check my blog, he was a man who risked his career to push the limit and changed the face of comedy. In all of his censored glory, he was also one of the first to do a bit about a weatherman~ albeit it a little insulting.

Severe Storms Potential: Slight Risk

Combine cold air aloft due to a stubborn upper level low in eastern Canada with the warm humid air in place, and you have an environment ready to produce more storms. Add in high sun and mid day heat, the result of those storms will may turn severe. For those of you with meteorology backgrounds- you'll note two things to look for when forecasting severe weather:
First is CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy.
The GFS has us above the limit at 1500 J/Kg, but the NAM is lower at around 11 J/Kg.
Lifted Index in negative numbers indicates more potential. The larger negative, the more severe the risk. The GFS has BWI at -4.7, while the NAM ranges from -3.6- to -4.0. One interesting aspect of reading extracted NAM data is the forecast hail size at 0.81". That would be in the severe range and qualify A Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be issued this afternoon. Look out for lines of storms to fire up as mid level impulses focus the energy. You can follow along on my Storm Page along with TV Graphics in the tabs above.

Severe Storms.Cooling Off: Locally! Globally?

Severe weather did break out yesterday. Hail over 1 inch was reported in Baltimore County's Lutherville and Timonium- along with many other reports seen here. Our morning show audio engineer was stuck at home due to damage near Northwood Dr. He called me this morning saying, "100 ft trees were snapped, light poles gone, hails dents in his siding, and the power meter was stripped off of his house".
In fact at one point 70,000 people lost power after the storms. That improved to 18,000 powerless homes this morning at 4:30.
This is part of the 439 wind and hail reports across the nation Tuesday.
If anything- this was in the forecast and most people were somewhat prepared even if scared.

Cooling Off Locally
All of this talk about the nation's extreme weather, and we had a little taste the the hot side of things. However, we should consider ourselves lucky. In the 4 days stretch of 90F+ temperatures, NO RECORDS were either set or tied in Baltimore.
So essentially- while the heat came early, it was not worthy of making the almanac.
It will get lost in time, much like the #2 wettest and #11 coolest May we just experienced.
Today: Temperatures will still be above normal, but a drop of about 10 degrees in the afternoon. It will feel much better.

Cooling Off Globally:
I got a long email forwarded t me from Meteorologists Tony Pann and Topper Shut from WUSA in Washington. For the purpose of space and time, I've just posted the most recent article in Science Daily- discussing the 'lack' of sunspot activity and how that may already be translating to Global Cooling:

Science Daily: Scientists not sure why Sun 'continues to be dead' – June 9, 2008

Excerpt: The sun has been laying low for the past couple of years, producing no sunspots and giving a break to satellites. That's good news for people who scramble when space weather interferes with their technology, but it became a point of discussion for the scientists who attended an international solar conference at Montana State University. Approximately 100 scientists from Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and North America gathered June 1-6 to talk about "Solar Variability, Earth's Climate and the Space Environment." The scientists said periods of inactivity are normal for the sun, but this period has gone on longer than usual. "It continues to be dead," said Saku Tsuneta with the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, program manager for the Hinode solar mission. […] The last cycle reached its peak in 2001 and is believed to be just ending now, Longcope said. The next cycle is just beginning and is expected to reach its peak sometime around 2012. Today's sun, however, is as inactive as it was two years ago, and scientists aren't sure why. "It's a dead face," Tsuneta said of the sun's appearance. Tsuneta said solar physicists aren't like weather forecasters; They can't predict the future. They do have the ability to observe, however, and they have observed a longer-than-normal period of solar inactivity. In the past, they observed that the sun once went 50 years without producing sunspots. That period, from approximately 1650 to 1700, occurred during the middle of a little ice age on Earth that lasted from as early as the mid-15th century to as late as the mid-19th century.

M.C.S.- Meso Scale Convective System

Not much time to write this evening- but as I mentioned in this morning's (last night's) post we will have some strong to severe storms move through overnight. The timing for this system is between midnight and 6am. An MCS is more like a vort max we would follow in the winter to produce snow squalls. This one feeds off of more humid air and results in locally heavy rain, lightning/thunder, strong winds- etc....
Please go to my main web site (link above) if you are not there now- and find the Storm Page link. there you can the local radar and lightning tracker, in addition to watches and warnings that may be posted....

Dirty Sky When We Lose The High...

Today you will notice more high cirrus clouds in the sky. This is often the first sign of a change in weather... and this is no exception. The same High Pressure responsible for Monday's great weather- slides off of the coast and allows a wind shift to warm us up. But we have to look at the upper level winds to see where these clouds are coming from... Here is the 300mb (roughly 30,000 ft) map. Here the wind flow becomes quite apparent- from the northwest.
The cluster of storms I circled in the Great Lakes actually threw it's clouds southeast in our direction overnight. More showers in the Ohio Valley are responsible for clouding things in VA and NC.
So today we will see clouds mix in- but the high altitude cirrus should allow the sun through. As the gradually increase by evening and overnight- it will mark the showers getting closer and holding out temperatures up.
From here on in, our nights will get progressively more muggy and stay in the mid 60s.


Tuesday night could get tricky as a short wave will swing through and could provide some late night storms. This is the type of event that can actually develop after sundown and east of the mountains as it does interact with some more humid air. Any hint of a southeast surface wind would be our trigger. This 700mb map shows this swinging through MD after midnight and by daybreak. What happens with this could set the stage for what follows on Wednesday itself. If we get clobbered early, it could stabilize the atmosphere. However there may be more support for afternoon convection. The Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday, so stay tuned.

Our Turn for Storms. Slight Chance of Severe Weather

While trying to adjust to the night shift (for the next 2 weeks), some of these posts might be slim. Here is the morning surface map, showing the cold front to our north west. It's a race between that large High Pressure in Western Canada and the wave of Low Pressure in northern Texas. The passing front will time out with this afternoon heating to bring the slight risk of severe storms around I-95 and south. That means wind gusts over 58mph, hail, frequent lightning- and perhaps a tornado. Since this front was in a much weakened form yesterday- our only chance for severe weather will be a surface wind from the southeast to help destabilize things. Please check out my Storm Page- and my updated TV Graphics Page (on full website above) for more up to date info.

What's The Bigger Story?

Note: BWI had .67" of rain yesterday. We are 1.19" away from the record for wettest May.

Yesterday's high temperature in Phoenix was 108F, setting a record. Baltimore's official high was 57F. That was not a record, but farther away from normal. Looking at the map, I've highlighted that Phoenix was 12 degrees above normal, but Baltimore was 18 degrees below normal. Considering today's media climate, the record high gets the headlines. I think our cool temperatures deserve it.

What do you think?


Oh, there were damaging storms from Atlanta to Charlotte, but it is severe weather season after all- that's par for the course.
a total of 329 severe weather reports yesterday. Most wind and hail, but there were 4 tornadoes.

Today will be a little more tame, but a chilly north west wind gusting to 25 mph, and the lingering chance of showers may not seem that much better.




As we approach Memorial Day, the patter looks like it's about to change. The transition to from trough to ridge is already underway- but it will be a slow process. As Canadian High Pressure builds in with that shower threat today- and perhaps tomorrow just to our north- it will get better. All it will take is a little sun to get us back to near normal. That normal is 75F. When you consider the average of cool wet days like yesterday, and pre-summer heat like the 80s and 90s like last year at this time... well 75F is where we end up. Getting a day of full sun, should actually boost us above normal, and that is what I expect this weekend.
Here is the GFS map for Sunday morning. Dry weather will return this weekend, but Sunday's shift is the wind from a northerly to west or southerly flow will be our turn of the corner. That should get us back to the low 80s, and by a chilly pool on Memorial Monday.

Severe Weather Blows Through

How about that thunder between midnight and 1am. Here is a snapshot of the regional radar. Here were the remains of the severe weather in Virginia that may have produced a tornado. The official report will come out today. For us it was a split around Baltimore. Westminster had .45" of rain, while Annapolis had 2.69" as of 6am. Baltimore came in with around 1 inch- BWI had 1.47" bringing us very close back to normal for the year.
More is on the way, but the severe weather threat should stay just south of us this morning. For the map of Warnings and Enhanced Radar- please click on the Storm Page Tab- in Full Web Site above.

Most of the storm reports have come in close to midnight:
Stafford, Va (not posted yet)- potential tornado
Near Richmond, VA- Hail Near 1"
Greensboro, NC- Hail up to 1.75", tornado Reports.

Up to 21 tornado reports yesterday in the nation. May is typically the most active tornado month.
Check out the great video from ABC this morning.
Storm Chaser Jim Reed may have experience, but this is pushing the limit. His account was on Good Morning America this morning. Another surveillance camera in Huntsville, AL caught cars getting tossed with ease in a matter of seconds.


Today is going to be a tough one to broad brush. North of Baltimore temperatures have dipped into the low 50s, and may stay there. While mid 60s will linger south of the city and eastern shore- with heavy rain this morning.

Mother's Day
I am in a time crunch today- but the Canadian model is still on target with evening rain for Sunday- a consistent call since Tuesday morning. I will write more on that tomorrow, as the storm may turn us quite chilly on Monday.

Severe Weather Season Is Here....

Due to the storms yesterday and what is expected today- I will not be posting about the Chesapeake Health and Earth Day as expected. Sorry....
Yesterday's Tornado Warning was issue by NWS due to Doppler Indicated Tornado. There was none spotted at the time on the ground, but here are the Doppler Images showing what we look for.
Note: This image on the left is your standard return of rain intensity measure in DDZ you might see on TV or online. This was the image from Baltimore County around 6:20pm Sunday. The rainfall rates were over 1 inch per hour with small pea size hail in Parkton (account from a co worker). I've highlighted the central point of the storm and wind field, however the possible 'hook' on the south side in the rain free zone is a signature of rotation in a storm. Most tornadoes are in the rain free section on the south or southeast side of a storm.


This image is a different level showing the wind profile. The whole premise for Doppler Radar is measuring a frequency change as wind/rain, etc move towards or away from the radar site. Much like the sound Danica Patrick's car winning in Japan's Indy race. That change in movement is measure and shown here with wind away from the radar in red, and towards the radar in green. When they are stacked side by side, that indicates rotation and potential spin of a funnel cloud. You'll notice I did not say tornado yet since this is all at cloud level. There is no guarantee that it will reach the ground, and as of this posting (6am), I did not see any confirmation of touchdown.


I am working on placing the lighting tracker with Radars and Stuff, but until then I will continue to post a live image here:
In terms of rain, how about those giant drops? This type of environment will produce what appears to be larger drops as small hail generated in these storms will melt on the way down from the clouds. The wind turbulence will help to break up these drops, but some can hold together. There is a lot of moisture available, so rain amounts under these storms may exceed a few inches.
Our severe weather is all thanks to a cold upper level trough with this pocket of warm moist air underneath. That allows the freedom for this air to rise and quickly dump rain. The spin from the upper low (check it out on Water Vapor Loop)

What a Storm!

I had a 72mph wind at my house. A few reports of 70 mph at Westminster and Glen Rock, PA. While I watched furniture fly around my deck- along with the grill- it was the top half of my locked door that pushed open that was most alarming. I stood there holding it shut, which may have saved the inside furniture from flying around. Wow! Here are some images our weather net station captured from Lakeland ES/MS. Notice the rainbow, the benefit of an afternoon storm such as this.
That was nearly 4 years to the day (well two days off) from the Ft. McHenry Water Taxi accident. I will try to post our ABC2 report and the Storm Stories report as well- later today.
Below are the images related to poll I put up this weekend comparing our new radar to the old one online.

Severe Weather, Christmas Outlook

Rain, Thunderstorms, and strong winds. Another round of rough weather, unbecoming of winter. Well, actually it is.. except the storm track is well to our west, so we get the warm side . You can follow along on the TV Graphics- Radars and Stuff Page. Basically, we have a fog advisory, wind advisory, bay coastal flood watch, oh and the chance of thunderstorms. I am on nights this week, starting tonight. So I will update graphics this evening.
SNOW: Yesterday I began working on compiling some snow data for Baltimore. Rather than overload the circuits on this topic, I am going to do a series this week on Baltimore Snowfall by the decades. While many people say, "It used to snow a lot more", you might be surprised by some of the data. Since it is a holiday week, that will be my main focus in this weeks posts.

Our hopes for a White Christmas

While it will likely remain mild after this storm passes, there is still a shortwave that could produce showers on Christmas- despite your Weather Channel forecast not showing it. I continue to put a small chance for Tuesday/ More tomorrow. On average, we have about a 20% chance of a snow on the ground in Baltimore for Christmas. That's about 1 in every 5 years.