Afternoon Update: Surprise Rain- Is This a Sign?

I had rain in my forecast this morning, but it was just for the northern areas. I did not expect this line to extend as far south as it did. However, the upper level maps this morning, did support it. Here is the 500mb map from the NGM showing the vorticity or energetic 'spin' aloft. This allows not only for enhancement of any showers in the afternoon, but surviving the trip across the mountains. That is exactly what it did, as seen on this radar snapshot from 2pm.

So is this a sign? A sign in this pattern that anything heading our way having a better chance of developing and maxing out. Well, here is the 500mb ma fro Wednesday morning. The next vort max, which essentially is the final push of cold air with this upper level Low, will pass just to our south. The vort max itself is seen in red, and this position is maximum potential for us in central Maryland. Combine this will cold air aloft, and my call from last week may still hold. Perhaps even more so with rain and snow showers not only in the mountains, but we could have the first flakes close to home by lunch on Wednesday. My fingers are crossed. Are yours? If you go to the Seasonal Tab on my full web site, you will see a new page I developed with Ski Bonk. Feel free to scroll around and get in the snow mood.

Here is the long range map from the Japanese Model in honor of Tony Pann. This is the cold air spilling in behind the weekend storm. Although this is a long shot, it does indicate a chance of it ending as snow- at least just west and north as the cloud level temps (850mb) will be near freezing. Still, I think it's a little too early for 'stickage'

Shaking Things Up... And Down Under

The earthquake map here shows the results from the last 7 days, but a lot of activity took place over the weekend. The one yellow dot in southern PA, was in York County. This is the second on this month. While it was officially reported as a magnitude 2 on the Richter Scale, it does remind us that although not as vibrant as the San Andreas Fault, there is still seismic activity in the east.
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands also had it's second shock of the month.



Australia enters it's spring season and this beautiful full arch rainbow is one of the few promising things the Ausies have seen.

Last Wednesday (10/22), Sydney had it's coldest day in 30 years with a high of 58F.

The Blue hills of New South Whales had snow for only the 5th time in 50 years of record keeping.

North in Brisbane and Coffs, severe storms brought lightning and large hail. The image here with the flip flops is my favorite.

Thanks to Charlie Wilson for this information and images from the Sydney Morning Herald.

More on our chance of midweek flurries and another hit early next week, on an evening post. So please, check back then.

More Rain. More April Snow. What it Means...

The rain we have today is part of a slow moving storm riding up the Appalachian Mountains. It's actually a good thing, since we are 1.71 inches below normal for the year.
As for that thunderstorm on Friday night, it pounded places north of the beltway to PA. BWI did get about .39". Sunday's rain however was not that impressive. Since it was mostly drizzle, and light showers- only .10" was recorded. We are pulling out of a winter drought, so consider this as catch up. Model Guidance has us with over 1 inch today. Localized thunderstorms can double that amount and lead to some ponding or flooding on roads this afternoon. I understand that some of you are not happy with the new view of our Doppler Radar since the coloring is set highlight only the heaviest rain. That can be see on my TV Graphics Radars and Cams Page (above). I made a new Storm Page that shows the old coloring of the NWS radar along with Warnings and Lightning Tracker. See the tabs above on the Full Web Site.
April Snow Anyone?
This is just a sample of the Midwest snow pack. Parts of Minnesota and the Dakotas have 1-2 feet of snow on the ground. This is part of a very cold upper level Low that can bring snow showers to Chicago later today. That's nothing compared to what Anchorage, AK had over the weekend. They have had 109 inches of snow for the season, which is 40 inches above normal. Below is a video clip showing the 2 feet of snow that had. Listen to the guy- and it's something a lot of the northern folk are thinking. I had nothing to do with it....

Leap Year Day- A Break From the Norm...

It will snow late today or tonight. I know this not from my scientific background. Not from the computer models, analysis, or even my third eye. It's because I got my haircut yesterday. Nikki reminded me that almost every time I got a cut since December (4th), it snowed the next day or night. Sometimes it's these patterns that take a while to figure out. Fellow snow lovers- if I had known, I would have gone more often. Heck, I'd look like Norm Lewis by now if I knew it would had brought more snow..
It continues to be a blockbuster season just to our north.
Snow Spotlight: Concord, NH
Current Season: 102.2"
Normal Season: 50.0"
Last Season: 19.3"
On the ground this morning: 42"
There is model support however...
Here is the NGM model depiction for Saturday morning. The green shows the precipitation bullseye from Baltimore up through New England. It will be New England that wins with 6-12 inches of more snow.
Temperatures for us will be marginal near the bay and up the coast. Basically the I-95 stretch will be wet- or wet ground with some flakes. Just north it will be colder to support snow. From New Yorks suburbs through New England- 3-6 inches will fall. Our best bet will be as that cold air catches up- on the north side. That is why I see a chance for a dusting to 1 inch just north of the beltway. I would say Carroll to central Baltimore/Harford and Cecil Counties, and York County in PA have the best chance of this. The timing also shows it lingering in the morning with a slow improvement in the afternoon. So March rolls in on Saturday. Do we call it a lion or a lamb. I will go with the lamb since after the morning it will be an easy weather weekend. That means that the end of the month should be rough. "In like a lamb, out like a lion."

A big, but quick warm up!



The next storm will again take that inland track to our west. But strong ridging ahead of it will stream in some warm air. Here is the 850mb map for Monday showing temperatures at around 5,000Ft will be 12C-14C. That could translate to nearly 60F down on the ground. It will set the stage for just rain- at least on Tuesday. Beyond that is still up for debate as a cold pocket of air will try to wrap around the Low and could bring an elevation snow to central Maryland. But that would need some special conditions to set up. I am still holding out on jumping on that wagon. It is pretty certain

Another Waste of Cold Air

With temperatures running around 15 degrees below normal, we have nothing to show for it. Today is my 5 year anniversary at WMAR (ABC2). I had to sit out for two weeks during my transition from 5 years at WBAL- and my first day back was covering a snow storm that dumped only 3 inches at BWI but about 5"-6" in Baltimore county. It was anti climatic after the 28" of snow two week earlier. I remember standing on a snow bank next to the Nautilus Diner on York Road in Timonium. I was standing higher than the street sign. Ah- good times...
If nothing else, this season's weather pattern has been persistent. That is the 'haves' continue to 'have it', and well you know the rest. While I would love to play Robin Hood and spread the wealth for my fellow snow lovers, I have not figured a way to do that yet. However, I wanted to point out one of the lucky cities- Chicago.
This image is from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite on February 24, 2008. It shows the snow cover in the Great Lakes area. Chicago on the south east end of Lake Michigan- does not typically get Lake Effect snow, so they rely on standard synoptic scale (what you see on a weather map) storms to bring them the fluff. Here are the snow stats for them up through today:
Normal: 30.2"
Last Season: 30.3"
This Season: 50.9"
That is 2/3 above normal.
Record Season 1978-1979: 89.7"

While they are a long way from their record... Just average snow for the rest of the winter will bring them into the top 10%, and the most since 1980. Definitely an impressive season for them.

So what about us? I am beginning to lose my optimism. While I still hold that there will be a large coastal storm, it may come a little too late to help our snow efforts. A clipper passing to our north tomorrow night will bring only the chance or rain or snow showers. I would be surprised if there is anything substantial out of this. behind it, the trough will lift and we will warm up over the weekend. The next storm, will be a warm rain maker. Temps may get close to 60F by Monday. As for that coastal I touched on yesterday... it does not look promising now. The track of the Tuesday storm will lock up the cold air well to our north. It will set the stage for another storm for the end of next week- that will again stay to our west. More snow for Chicago, non for us.
We can still look back to March 10-13 of 1993 for signs of late season storms. Still waiting...

WINTER STORM WATCH

The net result of Wednesday's storm was very close to my forecast (you can see in the post below).
Here you see 2 distinct bands of moderate snow. Unfortunately for most in the Baltimore metro area, it was just around 1 inch. That is in tune with my original forecast, yet the increased range did verify north and south. Annapolis was the big winner with 4 inches of the fluffy stuff. However DC and Chantily, VA barely got a dusting... Just bad luck I guess.

As of 6am- here is Winter Storm Watch Map, and my First Call:














The overnight models are trying to push BWI up to around 34-36 on Friday which would turnover to plain rain. However the model trend has been to be too biased with storms, pushing them to far north.
Below is what I am looking at to factor into my forecast:

1. Storm track verifies just a little south and east.
2. Colder temps this morning, plus snow pack may establish a colder start for the storms arrival.
3. NE wind= Cold air Damming. Most models are notorious for warming us up to fast. Take the Election Day storm for example... While it may not guarantee more snow, it could mean a longer duration of ice. That's not good for anyone! The freezing line often sets up near I-95 thanks to our geography and topography. The bay can warm up nearby areas, while the hills (500ft-1000ft) stay cooler, and lock cold dense air in the valleys longest.
4. Warming at cloud level will make this more of a wet/heavy snow (compared to yesterday), and likely push sleet or freezing rain for most of central Maryland during Friday.

Here is a breakdown of wintry precipitation:

The red layer show warmer temperatures (above freezing), above the ground which can remain cold. It all depends on how thick that layer of warm air.
Sleet: A raindrop has a thicker layer of cold air to refreeze before reaching the ground.
Freezing Rain: A raindrop does not freeze until after it touches the ground/tree/power line, etc.

Mid Day Update:
I am having a hard time accepting the morning model package. While there is trend down in temps (especially the GFS), I still think it is too warm. The range is from 33F-36F. That is for BWI. Remember Election Day? That was also a set up with below freezing temps lasting most of the day from Towson north. As for maps and charts and stuff... They don't show much, but I will try to get back on later today to highlight something. However, it all breaks down to this... There is pretty much a guarantee that it will start as snow, and drop 1-2 inches by daybreak. There is also a guarantee of mid level warming, so sleet and extended freezing rain will be the mid day and afternoon story (north). The potential is for 1/2 inch of ice on top of the snow. That could allow it to stick better and cause the power problems late in the day.
So I am sticking with my initial forecast I have above. Depending on how fast and intense the snow builds in, will be the ultimate test for how much we end up with. For many, not much more than when you wake up- because of the change over.

Rolling out the 'white' carpet...

Just a little bit of snow to wet your pallet. More importantly, it will establish a base for the arctic air mass, and lock it in longer for the bigger storm.
While temperatures will get near or above freezing, the cold air aloft will guarantee snow and a high ratio. Often we use a base of 10:1. That's 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of liquid. But when you factor in the temperature at cloud level- where the flakes will form...we can get higher ratios with colder temperatures. The overnight models have indicated an average of about -10C or 14F which allows a dryer more 'fluffy' snowflake. For reference, and with the next storm, this 850mb level which is around 5,000Ft up is what I use compared with surface temperatures as a basis for snow, or some form of ice. That is what I see here. I have bumped my total (Now NWS has as well) due to the type of snowflakes.

This reminds me of the December 5th event. It was a similar push south with the final model runs, and that puts the clipper to our south. That usually results in slightly higher amounts of snow because the mountains will not steal the moisture. In fact a little upslope (winds flowing from the ocean up the hills) on the north side will enhance our little Low. The snow will reach it's peak this evening. I would place a general 4pm-10pm for our accumulating snow time frame.
Looking at the primary mid range model extraction for BWI, here is the liquid equivalent for precipitation:
NGM: .04"
AVN/GFS: .13"
NAM: .08"
WRF: .17"
My general forecast: 1-2 inches of snow. However, watching the enhanced radar- it could easily bump up to the next category (2"-4")on my afternoon update. It's looking like a repeat of the December 5th storm.
It may clear our to catch the back half of the total lunar eclipse tonight if we are lucky.

The Friday storm below, but first...

Watch the latest videos on YouTube.com

Sorry I had to post something here for you to view to help the cause. I put one of these on my TV Graphics page, but it gets missed at the bottom.
Before I get to the main event- I want to just touch on my hypothesis on the influence of the moon on our weather. I did mention this yesterday and many times before- and if I pushed a Masters Degree, I would have tested it. However, here we are. A full moon and lunar eclipse tonight, and the two storms are looking stronger. Consider the tidal swing based on the moon, and then translate that to atmospheric (water) and pressure. There also seems to be a connection with geological events as well, and I relate this to influence on magma and plate tectonics. A large 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Indonesia last night prompted tsunami watches around the Indian Ocean. Many large earthquakes in recent memory were within a day of a full or new moon. Including December 26, 2004 in Thailand. It was the same area near Sumatra. Hmmmm. I'd love for someone to pick up this research, or share your thoughts....

The Storm:
I have always hedged my best on the trend of the models. This morning, I see that trend with our clipper and with the main event Friday. Both the Canadian and GFS which I highlighted the other day are showing this. It has turned out to be a busy day for other reasons. This will not be fully in depth, but here's what I've got.
The graphic package was not ready at post time....
Considering the GFS has the best placement of the clipper this morning, I will use it for positioning for Friday. The text output is supporting a change over to ice at least near I-95, as we warm in cloud level (850mb), but stay near or below freezing at the surface. A classic snow/ice line setting up somewhere close. Considering the behavior of today's event staying colder and farther south, I will leave that potential shift for Friday as well. So a forecast of snow to ice, may stay all snow in places. At this point, a good chance for well over 4 inches of snow where it does not change over. However, the ice problem will be bad. I already told a neighbor that she should telecommute on Friday and not drive in... I would put money on school closings, and extended coverage on local TV- Especially here at ABC.
I promise I do more tomorrow.

It Snowed- 60 miles east and south...

Some spots have iced up, but we missed the snow. We had flurries, but it was 1/2" to 2 inches on the Eastern Shore. Ocean City also had snow on the beach. Here is the radar from 3:02 this morning showing the band of snow I expected to develop- just missing us. In fact this does look a lot like the GFS map plot, but I did expect, and hope we would get some of that before it departed. Well, they did get nearly an inch or so from Easton to Ocean City.
All we get now is a day full of sun and a flag full of wind! It had already gusted over 40mph this morning, and will be gusty most of the day. While we will get close to 40F, it will feel like the mid 20s.


The weekend storm is looking less promising. Our lifting trough will make it tough for the next storm to ride up our side of the mountains. That means an OH Valley track and a rain event for us Monday. We may have some cold air left on Sunday for a start of snow or a mix- but the warm air will win again.

Some snow, then sleet, freezing rain, rain, and ending as snow

Say that 5 times fast!
Last night I made a quick post to point out what I caught as a Primary Day surprise. Well, I was still surprised when it was snowing at 2:00am. It was just a brief round of light snow well out ahead of the next developing storm. Here is a morning snapshot from Villa Julie College in Stevenson. That is about 2 miles off the NW corner of the beltway. You can see it was just enough snow to cover the parking lot, but it was slippery.
It will really begin to affect us mid day, but it should be more of a sleet and freezing rain mix as an easterly wind will warm up the mid layers of the atmosphere. Not a whole lot of accumulation is expected- at least while frozen, but it will be a nuisance, and the kids are already off of school. By the time the storm rolls in, will will be all rain tonight and tomorrow. This is make up time. Making up for the drought, as another 1-2 inches of rain are likely.
I am still curious about the developing secondary Low that may hold the moisture will the cold air returns Wednesday night. I still think it is possible that we end this thing with snow, and perhaps some accumulation. The NAM model does not show much, while the GFS extracted data for BWI shows the potential for up to 3 inches or snow as the storm pulls away. I hate to sound like election coverage, but I will post again when more information comes in.

Throw in snow for Tuesday morning...

First a correction to my morning post. Through=throw. Darn spell check thinks it's better than me.. well it is most of the time, but I let that slip. I was watching the radar this evening and noticed how far east the apparent snow had advanced. It does look like a lot of virga- seen on radar, but dries up before reaching the ground. Still, a chance for some snow in the morning, perhaps at daybreak. Well, that is much faster than I led on to, but I may have a lot to talk about in the morning. It still looks like it will be changing over to rain as warmer air works in, but this timing has my forecast all messed up. no new data will arrive until after I go to sleep, so please tune in to my forecast in the morning....

BZzzzzzzzzzz... Shave Live on TV

Afternoon Announcement: I will take pics of the family reaction over the weekend and post them as well...



It's almost time. We have a busy morning, but the poll at the right might explain the delay in the shave. I am amazed by the response from many of you. Quite a few want me to keep it, others just to get my parents. Seriously, at this stage with a young kid- it's all about him. I was never a showboat, and this may be my last shot. So for those of you that think I am backing out- I am not. We did get the needed snow, and my promise will be followed through. Soon! ABC2 is working on the best way to share it.

Saturday's storm is not looking like our shot. Better chance for the Eastern Shore. I will try to post (if I can) this evening.
In the meantime, check out my Snow Page. I had faith in the flakes, and tried to encourage the kids that winter was not done. In fact check this out:
BWI Snow:

• Yesterday: 2.4"
• Season: 7.2"(1.8" above normal)
• Normal: 5.4"

The Snow was pretty close to the forecast map (see yesterday's post below). However Anne Arundel County got a surprise with more snow. I had mentioned on TV yesterday that we were aware they were not included in the Advisory. This was based on the temperatures expected to warm up just enough and turn them over to sleet and rain earlier (after 1-2 inches of snow). Instead, the burst of heavy snow arrived nearly at the start and helped to drag down colder temps from the clouds and hold it in long enough. Rates were 1-2 inches per hour.
I just captured some of the time lapse videos of the snow I showed on TV yesterday. I will post them here this weekend.

First Flakes- 10:30am- 1:30pm Sloppy roads!!!

Right on schedule. I am sure the collective rush to the windows may have been recorded as a blip on the Richter Scale..
At 1:30pm- I am just baffled. We have a steady south east wind, yet temps are holding. I see impressive returns on the radar (See TV Graphics , etc page) near DC. That may be the sleet and the change over. Until then- looks like amounts may have to be updated- and the beard is likely coming off. I am staying at the station to double team this evening. If you have snow amounts- e mail them to me there - with your town: berk@wmar.com.
Below in this morning's post you can see the snow maps. Here are some update camera images from:
Glenelg is west in Howard County(here).

Inner Harbor Baltimore from MD Science Center and Annapolis is south in Anne Arundel County (below). You can find more in the County Spotlight pages

Winter Storm-Not For all

No Snow=No Shave: Day 14 I need 2 inches to fall at BWI to shave, this might be a close call there. More on my Snow Page (link above)
Yes, this is the same storm I blogged about over last weekend, then let go a few days ago. Not completely though: The wintry mix was always in my forecast, I just didn't want to get too excited over this, and we kept the lines down at the stores.
I am still close to what I said yesterday. The difference is the early arrival catching up and holding some slightly colder air in place. Don't expect to see anything on your way to work or school, but you will be at the window watching it around lunchtime.
Here are the basics:

• Snow begins for all 9am-1pm
• Mix and change to rain city/south by evening.
• I-95 will separate snow/ice north- rain south.
• Check road pavement temperatures for potential slick spots.
• Icy problems Friday morning in Advisory areas.

Check my TV Weather Graphics and Stuff Pages- Our StormCenter Doppler eliminates the false flakes (virga), while the regional radars will look like it is much closer. This will be a busy day, so I may not be able to post about models, etc. I will hop on quickly and update the snow arrival right here- so check back.
Just wanted to give the basics, and thank you all for spreading the word about my site. Don't forget to get all of your friends to turn the channel to ABC2 as well.

Pattern Change- Winter Will Return. SOON!

No Snow= No Shave: Day 8
I posted my reasons yesterday about the shifting pattern and return of cold to the east. The models are still dancing around the trough with a few shots of coastal storms. The GFS which I never liked, but has done the best job this year- has diminished Monday's coastal, but building up Thursday and a larger one Saturday. This video is my analysis of this model. Check it out and then fill out the poll to let me know if this is something I should try again.The problem is that this second storm keeps getting pushed back to day 6 or 7 on every run. It sees something, but how confident can we be in it this far out. I am also waiting for the 12Z run for the latest on next week. I may post again on that later today, but definitely over the weekend. For those of you that like analog year, January 2000 started off warm. Jan 2nd and 3rd were both 68F, the 4th was 70F.. then the pattern flipped. We were hit with 3 storms between the 20th and 30th resulting in a total of 23 inches. That was an above normal season for snow- most in just those 10 days. Just how it works out some times.
Great Pictures were emailed to me yesterday. I made a new slide show in the Album page- Best of Baltimore Jan2008. Check it out in addition to my Snow Page.

Severe Weather, Christmas Outlook

Rain, Thunderstorms, and strong winds. Another round of rough weather, unbecoming of winter. Well, actually it is.. except the storm track is well to our west, so we get the warm side . You can follow along on the TV Graphics- Radars and Stuff Page. Basically, we have a fog advisory, wind advisory, bay coastal flood watch, oh and the chance of thunderstorms. I am on nights this week, starting tonight. So I will update graphics this evening.
SNOW: Yesterday I began working on compiling some snow data for Baltimore. Rather than overload the circuits on this topic, I am going to do a series this week on Baltimore Snowfall by the decades. While many people say, "It used to snow a lot more", you might be surprised by some of the data. Since it is a holiday week, that will be my main focus in this weeks posts.

Our hopes for a White Christmas

While it will likely remain mild after this storm passes, there is still a shortwave that could produce showers on Christmas- despite your Weather Channel forecast not showing it. I continue to put a small chance for Tuesday/ More tomorrow. On average, we have about a 20% chance of a snow on the ground in Baltimore for Christmas. That's about 1 in every 5 years.

Wednesday's Waiting Game

First- a reminder of the Snow Poll on the right. I will act on the results. Comments should be fixed, so please share your thoughts...
Today: The warm up. It was expected to be the warmest day, but huge bust potential as any sunshine could jump temps into the 70s. Since we were at 52F at 5am, I am conservatively going 60F-65F. Just waiting on the front just west which could slide in before evening with rain.
Tomorrow: Rain ending as snow? Always waiting for the next model run, but based on my morning forecast, here you can see the NGM 'slow with the low'. Based on this projection, the final wave along this old front will be to our southwest on Thursday evening. Cold air will spill in, but not allow the freezing line to catch up and for us to turn over to end as snow.

Here however is the NAM model for the same time. You can see the low has passed to our south 'east'. That would allow the north wind to drag down colder air. There is one problem here. Notice the yellow line- that is the famed '540 line'. A thickness measured that often relates to the rain/snow line in storms. It is too far north, but not the only ingredient. There is a lot of information to decipher, but here is the 850mb Temperature map. This is an idea of where the freezing line might set up at cloud level (roughly 4,000Ft). What's difficult here is that surface temps may be above freezing while it's cold enough aloft. I see this an an elevation thing at best. Which means Hereford Zone and up near the PA line has the best chance, but lower elevations will not allow any clouds flakes to survive the trip. Locally, just a near miss for most of us.
As for this weekend storm, remember when I said it was too early to get excited? There has been a lot of talk about the potential for this coastal bomb, and you will likely see fluctuations in the models. The GFS model I have been showing demonstrates this often. It has a warm bias with coastals, and can shift a rain snow line 100 miles with each run. Here you can see it is 200 miles north of yesterday's position for Sunday morning. It could very well shift back with the next output, but a sign of how fickle the chaotic atmosphere is. To plot a specific time, place, snow line and amount too far out is nearly impossible. Surely the potential for a big east coast storm is safe, but not who gets what. I've seen it too many times, and don't want to get myself excited, nor scare the viewers. Should I also mention that there is also a chance that energy from Olga gets pulled into the east coast trough? I will, if it holds tomorrow. Again, a waiting game. We wait for the next model to see if the trend is faster and farther, slower or closer. Snow, ice, rain, or a bust. Please vote in the 'Snow Poll' and Stay tuned...

TerribleTues-day?

Let's start off with what we missed yesterday. I pointed out the warm air to the south, but this is ridiculous. While we were stuck at 47F, Richmond hit 79F! If you read my blog last Friday/Saturday which discussed this warm up just missing us, I truly never expected anything like this.

OK- Parents know about those 2's...sorry for the bad pun, but there is so much to talk about today: Ice Storm in the mid west, Sub Tropical Storm near Puerto Rico, and a weekend Winter Storm for us???
The ice storm in Oklahoma might be the worst in recent memory with power outages, trees snapping and covering roads, a morning tally of 18 deaths - it's just bad! All is not OK in OK. Check out this scary statement the NWS posted yesterday:

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TULSA AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. SOME INTERSECTIONS MAY NOT YET HAVE TEMPORARY FOUR WAY STOP SIGNS. CALL 911 FOR LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCIES ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT HANG
UP IF YOU CALL, YOUR CALL WILL BE ANSWERED. THE TULSA POLICE DEPARTMENT IS ON OPERATION SLICK STREETS. IF YOU HAVE A NON INJURY ACCIDENT, DO NOT CALL 911. THE POLICE WILL NOT RESPOND. ALL HOSPITALS EXCEPT THE OSU MEDICAL CENTER AND HILLCREST MEDICAL CENTER ARE OPERATING ON BACK UP POWER. AEP-PSO HAS PRIORITIZED RESTORING POWER TO HOSPITALS FIRST. IT COULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE POWER TO BE RESTORED TO ALL HOMES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER FROM THE COLD AT AREA HOSPITALS. SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

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The tropics continue to be active as 'Sub Tropical' Storm Olga was named yesterday. This once again brings up the question of naming storms. Recently the National Hurricane Center began the practice of naming 'sub tropical storms'. Not full Hurricanes! Some forecasters believe this is falsely inflating the numbers to justify - well either their off season purpose or the seasonal forecast. Either way, it counts as another one on the list - post season and will be a central Caribbean event this week. Click the image for a full view.

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal this weekend is going negative, which supports coastal snow storms for us. That is mainly due to the final push of the Midwest ice storm strengthening when it moves out to the ocean on Thursday. Here is the GFS outlook for Sunday showing a large coastal storm off of the DE coast. Both the Canadian and GFS support this, but plotting an ice/snow line this early would be purely guesswork. At this time, I would hedge my bets on a mix developing late Saturday, turning to snow on Sunday. For reference, since the GFS did the best job with this storm, I will continue to show this model's projections for Sunday morning. Remember that timing and position can vary widely over the next few days, so it's a little early to get really excited.

Noon Update

A Winter Weather Advisory was posted just before noon for tonight and Saturday morning through 6am. Looks like the cold air hangs on with another wave of moisture. Icing likely after dark for most of us. North near the PA line 1/2 to 1 inch of snow by morning. This is tough to line up since it will be warm air at cloud level that will determine who gets snow or sleet. Either way, it's light, but enough to be a pain. Click image for larger view. Updated Maps on Weather Graphics Page.

Mid Day Report Card

A huge response from the viewers, and lots of happy students here at Sparrows Point HS getting out early. I am not surprised, but I need to explain what happened. Overall, I give myself a B. First Dec. 5th proved itself again- see morning blog below. I've said it for about a month now. But this morning was a rough ride. Snow was on schedule, but the early burst west and south near DC melted on near freezing roads, then re-froze quickly. That was the early ice, and 4 hour ride from Harford County to DC I heard about. With air temps steady 24F to 28F, more 'stickage' on roads mid day. The lack of melting, is one reason to up my total range to near 3". Also, so banding set up from Mt. Airy to near PA line in Baltimore County already piled close to 3" or 4" in spots by 1pm. I am still holding for the main roads to get icy after 3pm. If anything, watching the main Clipper Low this evening, may actually produce 5 inch amounts in parts of Carroll County. I may also be reporting 3-4 inch amounts close to the beltway tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed the early gift either way. I'd rather start low and up my totals, that have to pull back.

Our Date With Destiny

It was this date in 2001 that we set the record High temperature of 75F. Since then, it has marked the first snowfall of the season. Today will mark 5 of the last 6 years. I find this truly fascinating for nothing other than coincidence. Click on the image for a full view.
Note: If you are not reading this on my new website, please use the link in the upper right of this blog.
On www.justinweathertalk.com you find:
This Blog
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Note: My December 5th Live shot (from WBAL days) is posted below...

While this is our first event of the season, and this Snow Advisory affects all of us, I expect the mid day roads to be wet. However, a burst is posts, could make some roads in Carroll and Western Howard Counties slipper. But I expect the main problem to be after 3pm. That's when the snow picks up and the sun goes down. The ride home will be slow.
As of 6am, the models are on target with my forecast, showing this clipper passing to our south. That combined with colder temps locked in place, a little more snow may fall just south along the path of the clipper. Generally I am expecting 1-2 inches for most of us. Here is the overnight model breakdown:
NGM: .16" = 1-2" Snow
AVN: .28" = 3" Snow
NAM: .15 = 1 1/2 " Snow

Please share your pics with me on the Contact Me Page or through ABC2 at weatherpix@wmar.com

Now a trip down memory lane. One of our newsroom managers reminded me of the snow angel I did on the air while back at WBAL. That was on the famed December5th back in 2002. Here is some of that coverage below. I have more if you see the tab for Photo and Video Albums above (on full web site)