Never a Dull Moment

Yesterday the temperature reached 82F at BWI. In the 80s for a second day in a row, and all I could hear was how great it was. From golf to yard work- well I think the golf was the great part. It was a beautiful day, and I'm a cold weather guy. The surge of warm air was not a surprise, and still not a record. It is quite common to have a few warm spells in the fall, and the warmer spells will be balanced out by a dramatic cool down this weekend. But don't complain... first, we've had a good stretch of good weekends. Secondly, when you consider what has been happening across the country (and beyond), we've been pretty lucky.
Here you can see the highlights across the country (map coming soon):

FIRE: There were 2 wild fires that remained unchecked outside of LA yesterday. Fueled by the warm dry Santa Anna winds- so far a total of 49 structures have burned.

SNOW: A storm in the Rockies in the past week has helped 2 Ski Resorts open today in Colorado. Loveland Ski Area announced this morning that it will open for the season at 8:30 a.m. Wednesday. Arapahoe Basin, which originally planned a 9 a.m. opening Wednesday, switched it today to 8:30 a.m. after Loveland's plans were announced. It's like gas stations battling across the street from each other. More can be found here.

Warm and Quiet: That is the story from Maryland to Mississippi. That's where temperatures were averaging the low 80s.

Hurricane OMAR! This was upgraded overnight. As if it wasn't bad enough that Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands had a 6.1 earthquake last weekend, they are bracing for this Category 1 storm by this Thursday. the projection here for the weekend is moving safely farther away from the Eastern US.

Ike's Storm Surge Charts

Here are two charts of water level in Galveston and Manchester Texas. As you can see, although the water level rose well before the storm, it did not go above 15 feet in these locations, which made a big difference in flooding. It was bad, but it could have been worse.

Give credit to the National Hurricane Center with a pretty good forecast track. The eye made landfall in Galveston at 2:10am local time. The path and position of the eye kept the worst storm surge just east of Houston. It could have been much worse if the eye had been 20-40 miles left (south west) of the actual track. As a result the winds in Houston were more from the east as opposed to the south. Now we wait for the full assessment in daylight. I would suggest there are devastating results in spots not covered yet...

Ike Could Be Worse than Katrina

The slight shift in the track over the past 12 hours has put the direct target on Galveston and Houston, Texas.
There is agreement among most of the models on this path, which actually puts this metropolitan area closer to the path of the eye wall, which is where the strongest winds are found.
As of 5am, the winds increased slightly to 105mph. More important is that the hurricane force winds extend 120mph from the center. The tropical storm force wind field extends 450 miles from end to end. A large storm that will effect a large area.
This is going to be bad! There is no way to sugar coat this, and I do not think the hype is too much. The famous 1900 hurricane that killed 8,000 people prompted the building of a 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. It has yet to be challenged by a Hurricane. This storm should build a 15 foot storm surge with waves 32Ft tall as it makes landfall around high tide. Add in over 12 inches of rain and tornadoes on top of the max winds, and I have a hard time accepting that this storm will spare this metropolitan area.


The NFL made the move last night to postpone the Football game between the Ravens and Houston Texans has been postponed until Monday night. Is this a good move? Of course the game should not take place on Sunday, but what about the conditions of Houston on Monday. The damage to the infrastructure, plus the displacement of most of the population will make any travel difficult. Even if Reliant Stadium does survive better than the Superdome, and they have generator power- what about the rest of the region. While I have a fantasy football player in this game, I don't think this was thought out properly. Perhaps the game should have been moved to New Orlean's Superdome, or even one of the University stadiums inland. What do you think?

It should be noted that the National Weather Service put out a statement yesterday saying "People in the path of this storm will face imminent death". That is the same statement put out 1 day before Katrina hit New Orleans. At that time the storm was a Category 5. This storm is still a Category (as of early Friday). Here is the rest of the statement from the NWS for Galveston and Houston areas:

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

PERSONS SHOULD PREPARE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
DAMAGING WINDS. SECURE OR REMOVE ANY LOOSE ITEMS SURROUNDING YOUR
PROPERTY WHICH COULD BE BLOWN AROUND BY TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. TRIM TREES NEAR YOUR PROPERTY.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO
SHINGLES...SIDING...AND GUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT.
UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME
AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS
OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT
ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.

MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND
ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LIVINGSTON TO HEMPSTEAD COMMUNITIES BEGINNING
8 TO 10 PM FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR
AN 16 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 80 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER AREA.

...INLAND FLOODING...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

...TORNADOES...

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE SPREAD INLAND. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 45. YOU SHOULD PLAN TO SEEK
SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A Day of Silence, Questions about Ike

There is a lot I would like to talk about today:
The bee colony in the wall of my bathroom...
The rain on the way...
Hurricane Ike...

I just don't feel right posting on this somber day. Too many personal things that had happened on that dreaded 7 years ago.

Life does go on, and we can not let terrorists break out spirit.

We will be bombarded with images and memorials. It will be painful for many of us, but please
DON'T FORGET!

There will be a lot of anxiety about our next disaster- this one natural and forecast. Here are the computer models from Wednesday Night for Hurricane Ike. As of this morning, it was a large storm. Hurricane force winds extended 115 miles from the center. Tropical Storm force winds extended 230 miles away. The pressure indicated that the measured 100mph winds should be closer to 130mph+. It look like a contraction and speed increase is likely today. The track is scary. The latest trend has been to pull it farther up the Texas coast. The NHC path takes it just to the west of Galveston and Houston early (pre-dawn) Saturday morning. Football fans will be questioning what will happen to the Raven's vs. Texans

Turning Leaves, TRMM and Ike

I am personally excited about the temperatures cooling down. My pool is still opened, but there is a point when the heat just sucks the energy out of you. I am there! This is why I love a four seasons climate. Especially around these parts, when it is different every year. Consider last year, the leaves were still on the trees past Halloween into Thanksgiving. This year, there are already turning. I saw a stretch in I-83 yesterday with brilliant yellow and even red. I will take a photo today and post it tomorrow. With the pictures, it's just words here....

So let's push past the chill on the way, and jump back to the tropics with Ike. Here is the TRMM Satellite just before it hit Cuba. That is the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. This was Sunday with winds of 132mph.
The rainfall analysis shown on this image was made with data from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) instruments . They are overlaid on an image that used TRMM's Visible and infrared (VIRS) data.

This is one of the tools used to help determine how much rainfall has occurred with a land falling storm. This image shows that there was potential for well over 1 foot of rain, that passed over the southern Bahamas, and Haiti which has been hit by Fay, Gustav and Hanna.





Here is the 7 day total up through yesterday. It might be hard to see here, but TRMM shows the general range of 4 to 14 inches of rain in Cuba and Haiti. This is important to follow as Ike is likely to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico this week. The current track continues on the southern path and aiming for Corpus Christie, TX Friday night and Saturday morning. You can continue to track with StormPulse in my tropics page...

Hanna: Just the Basics

First Some Weather Cams along the shore:
Ocean City, MD


Rehoboth, DE



Wildwood, NJ



It is going to be a long, busy day... Here are some of the graphics we are working on. The speed had picked up a little this morning, so the timing of the worst part of the storm may begin early to mid aftrernoon. Heavy rain has already developed as of 9am. I have noticed the upslope in the terrain to our north and west has enhanced the rainfall. There could be higher amounts to our west. You can track that in my TV Graphics or Radar tabs above on the main web site.
If I get a chance, I will post a little more later.

Hanna Hits Saturday

I hate, and yet I love these mornings. There is so much to talk about, it all seems like a rush on TV. But that is the benefit of my blog and web site. That is how I can share everything. I am still pressed on time, but I wanted to share as much as possible as soon as possible.
The Track (as of this morning), has Hanna as a Tropical Storm and passing over Salisbury on Saturday evening. The wind field is large with this storm, so the area that will have 40mph winds or higher will be large.
I have included Baltimore in the zone with 40-60mph winds, at least with gusts. On the Bay and the Delmarva- the winds will be holding the full force of the storm, which will likely be steady at 45-65mph on Saturday night.

WATCHES (as of Friday morning)
As of this morning, a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Eastern Shore, Chesapeake Bay, and 'Coastal Areas' of Harford, Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the rest of us.
Basically, we all will get something. I also want to point out that tornadoes are possible. With this path, the main threat of that will be on the Delmarva. So what else, and better yet, when?
I will answer all of that below... but the path is most important. Considering the map above, the path into the Lower Eastern Shore will bring us primarily a northeast to north wind as it passes. This will affect for how the water piles up or drains around the Chesapeake. That wind direction will likely help to drain (not surge the water like Isabel) , yet push it up against the western bay shores... there will be flooding.
Regardless, water levels will be important. Here are some of the High Tides I was able to
gather for the shoreline areas. The worst part of the storm will be Saturday evening into very early Sunday morning. The Saltwater tides web link below can help you find many more spots and their tides...


Saltwater Tides Link

Models, Rainfall and Flooding

Here is the GFS Model. I have been following this one all week.
The overnight run had the center of Hanna just north of Ocean City at 8pm on Saturday. You will notice the yellow shading over Baltimore that indicated the heaviest rainfall just north and west of the center. Often times these storms will dump more our way than near the center as it interacts with higher terrain and other weather systems.





The Canadian Model also shows 8pm Saturday for the close approach of Hanna.
This position is a little farther south- or just over the southern Chesapeake Bay. If anything, I see the same path, just a slighter slower solution. The time frame here still has us with the worst between 6pm Saturday evening through midnight.






I was looking at the higher resolution NAM model and was concerned with an attempt to slow down or stall Hanna on top of us.
Here you can see the 8pm Saturday evening position near Raleigh/Durham, NC, then reaching us on 8am Sunday. That is a dramatic slow down, and seems to be the only model doing so.
While the cold front to our west is falling apart, the upper level winds will still have enough of a southwesterly push to keep Hanna moving at a brisk pace ranging from15-25mph. This may be using bad data, but I needed to mention it just in case it found something no one else is seeing.
Rainfall
Basically, using the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center maps, here is the forecast for rainfall:
There is a bulls eye (X) over northern New Jersey with 7.99 inches.
Baltimore: 5-6 inches
Westminster: 4-5 inches
Annapolis/Easton: 5-7 inches
Ocean City: less than 4 inches.

All impressive amounts, but should be taken with a grain of salt. There are so many things that can influence rain totals, mainly if and where rain bands set up. We could get a lot more in spots, or a lot less. Either way, the idea goes along with what I mentioned above. The heaviest rain will fall just north and west of the path of Hanna.


Just to recap my forecast:
This evening: Chance of thundershowers.
Tonight: Developing rain/thundershowers. Especially by morning.
Saturday morning: Rain and wind E 10-25mph
Saturday afternoon: Heavy rain, wind E to NE 25-45mph. Temperatures: Mid 70s
Saturday 6pm - Sunday 2am: Heavy rain, water level 1-3 feet higher on the west side of the bay. Wind ranging from 35-65mph Strongest winds on the Bay and Eastern Shore.
Sunday: Clearing, breezy early. Fine for the Raven's game in the afternoon. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 80-85F

Hanna's Track Shifts Slightly-THIS IS NOT ISABEL

More on Hanna and recent similar storms is posted below. Also, a reminder that this blog is part of my full web site. If you do not see more images at the right here, then click the link above for the full web site.
First, I am thrilled that a lot more of you have taken interest in my blog, but I am amazed how may questions I have gotten about this storm and Isabel. I discussed this earlier in the week- just a few posts back... but I guess I should revisit it again.

THIS IS NOT THE SAME STORM AS ISABEL.

• Isabel reached 150mph winds a few days before landfall-then weakened. The wave memory of that strength is what reached us. Hanna is still a Tropical Storm and only expected to be a minimal Hurricane.

• Isabel tracked to our south and continued inland- pulling steady south east winds up the bay. Hanna should 'turn the corner', and pass off of the coast. It may clip Ocean City, and looks more like the paths of Floyd('99), and...Charley ('04).

I was an expert witness on a case regarding Isabel, and wrote up a 36 page report describing the unique nature of that storm. The 5 year drought, leading into record snow and very wet seasons. The result was water levels raining 2nd and 3rd all time in many spots- before the storm arrived. Then the track of Isabel itself was extremely rare. It passed north of Cape Hatteras, the point on the map that sticks out on the eastern seaboard. Most often, north of there a storm will encounter the mid latitude Westerlies and turn as a result. Isabel passed north of Cape Hatteras, which allowed that high wall of water- the Storm Surge, to pass unimpeded into the Chesapeake Bay. The track never wavered, and continued northwest up towards Toronto. Flooding was from the surge, not the rain. Check out the path and forecast plots here.

High Tide
Flooding in these storms often comes in two forms.

1. Down- Rain from the sky.
2. Up- Storm Surge upon landfall. This is the most destructive.
   

Despite my confidence and attempt to calm the fear of a repeat, people who live along the water will be watching the high tide and timing of the storm for surge flooding. Bowleys Quarters in Baltimore county seemed to get hit the hardest, I thought I would post their High Tides here. The mid day High Tide on Saturday would be the one of most concern. With the expected track and timing now... the following High Tide early Sunday morning should come with a northwest wind, blowing or draining water out the bay.
Tracking Hanna- Why it Shifted East.
Early this week, I was pumping the track from the National Hurricane Center directly over Baltimore. I tried to make it clear that the the range of time and error would likely bring it close, but not directly on that path. For two straight days, the models I look at were consistently plotting Baltimore. Then it began to show a shift to the south and east. Why?
Weather is all about 'teleconnections'. One storm can be impacted by one or a few others. Or even a ridge of High Pressure such as the one that steered Gustav, but gave us clear skies. As Hanna delayed it's development and turn north an extra day, it allowed the remains of Gustav and the Cold Front to our west to get a little closer to us. Carry this to Saturday, and the steering winds are expected to make Hanna turn north then north east before reaching us.
This GFS plot, compared to the last few days, does show a path over Ocean City on Saturday afternoon. That would sift out winds to more of a Northeast to north direction when the storm gets close. The water level in the bay may run high, but also could drop as this happens as the direction of the wind will help 'push' or 'drain' more water out. This could be counteracted by heavy rain, but definitely different than Isabel. Below are the overnight models and National Hurricane Plot for comparison to the last few days in my previous posts. Beyond that is a comparison to recent storms with the same path- Floyd and Charley.
Computer Models- Spaghetti Plot




















Two Storms: Similar Paths, Different Outcomes

While working on a comparison to recent storms with similar tracks, I found two with very different results for Maryland. For starters, it is similar to Floyd, but that was a much stronger storm. At one point, Floyd was on the verge of reaching Category 5 status, and keep pushing from initial threats in central Florida to North Carolina. It was a Tropical Storm when it reach Maryland and passed nearly on top of Ocean City. It was responsible for over 6 inches of rain in Baltimore, 11-13 inches of rain in Annapolis and nearly 20 inches in parts of the Eastern Shore. Ironically, Ocean City had less than 2 inches of rain.Perhaps you remember the images of the town of North East in Cecil County, or Port Deposit at the point where the Susquehanna meets the Chesapeake.















More recently, Hurricane Charley. That came on shore in Florida's Gulf Coast as a Category4, weakened as it crossed into the Atlantic, then hit North Carolina and crossed over Ocean City in a diminished form. By that time, although a similar path to Floyd- no rain fell on the west side of the bay. Quite a contrast.

Hello Dolly, Goodbye Justin- Sort of...

As Dolly bears down on the TX coast, I want to point out one thing:
A category 1 storm in strengthening mode can be more destructive than a
Cat 2 making landfall while weakening. Dolly has tightened up this
morning and could reach Cat 2, but will hold together a bit inland
while slowing down forward movement.

LOCALLY
Flooding is likely as we break the heat wave. Our front has nothing
to do with Dolly, but will give us our own problems as it slows down.
I expect 1-3 inches of rain beginning mid day...

FACT FINDING MISSION:
I will be gone for some, uh, research for a few days. I will be
testing my new iPhone's capabilities on location with all it can do.
This blog was sent from my iphone along with this picture of the
StormCenter. I will post more along the way so let's see how it holds up. I'll be back in the station
next week.

Hurricane Bertha: Not Big, but Strong

Overnight, Bertha jumped to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Here is the latest image with stats and forecast. As you can see, the trend continues to push it farther east. Bermuda may escape this threat with just high surf.
One thing to note: Will this trend continue all season? I have noticed in seasons past, that the models (such as the GFDL) that the NHC uses to dominate it's forecast track can have a bias farther east or left of it's track.

Locally: We will have more heat and more storms. There was a flare up of showers in Virginia early this morning. This is in response to this upper level Low. This will slowly slide to the coast today, and help to develop more storms this afternoon. In the meantime, we will have more sunshine- boosting us into the 90s. That heat and this upper level support can make some storms push severe limits. That means:

• Large Hail (3/4 inch)
• Strong Winds (over60mph)
• Heavy Downpours

This does not guarantee it, and they will be isolated...but look out. It could get busy later on....

Maryland Swamp! Berthan Now a Hurricane

How about that rain? A burst of tropical rain moved through Baltimore and Harford Counties around 3 and 4 this morning. Some spots had over 1 inch of rain. Considering the rain over the weekend, and we are making up for the lack of wet weather in June.
Here is the projected rainfall for today. An average of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. However, local storms (like this morning) can easily dump over 1 inch.
This whole will take another two days to move off of the coast, and it will just be a waiting game. Watching the radar will determine when the showers pop up, and where they move. It's going to be some daytime heating that will provide the trigger.




HURRICANE BERTHA
This is the update from 5am. I've got more images on my old tropics page. Click the image for more. The track shows a typical curve before reaching the US coastline. This is in part due to our coastal front that will be on the move and help steer this storm. Bermuda may be under the gun, but there is a wide range of error at day 5. It will be interesting to compare the actual track to this forecast on Friday.

Hurricane Season...

And so it begins... or began this is- 12 hours ahead of schedule. The Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1- November 30. This year it got a 1 day head start with Arthur.
The official National Hurricane Center Outlook shows a chance of slightly above normal activity. We are in the middle of a 30 year cycle of increased activity. The last active period was from the 1930s to 1960s. We had a lull in the '70s and '80s. The recent spike began in 1995- see the chart below. You'll also notice that spikes are about the same. The chart only goes out to that monster 2005 year, and does not include the decline in the past 2 season.
So, does this early arrival mean anything? Well, not really. While The infamous 2005 season did begin June 8th with Arlene. However, May has historically had 19 Tropical Storms. While the chart below shows that is less than 5% of the time- it does not signify how the rest of the season will go. What is a staple, is the month of September. Thanks to the peak of Atlantic water temperatures in this month, the most hurricanes will form- feeding off of that heat.
Here is the 2008 list. Arthur has already been crossed off....