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Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Hurricane Bertha: Not Big, but Strong

Overnight, Bertha jumped to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Here is the latest image with stats and forecast. As you can see, the trend continues to push it farther east. Bermuda may escape this threat with just high surf.
One thing to note: Will this trend continue all season? I have noticed in seasons past, that the models (such as the GFDL) that the NHC uses to dominate it's forecast track can have a bias farther east or left of it's track.

Locally: We will have more heat and more storms. There was a flare up of showers in Virginia early this morning. This is in response to this upper level Low. This will slowly slide to the coast today, and help to develop more storms this afternoon. In the meantime, we will have more sunshine- boosting us into the 90s. That heat and this upper level support can make some storms push severe limits. That means:

  • Large Hail (3/4 inch)
  • Strong Winds (over60mph)
  • Heavy Downpours
This does not guarantee it, and they will be isolated...but look out. It could get busy later on....

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