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Monday, July 21, 2008

Hello Dolly!- Goodbye Bertha and Christobol

I hate to play the game " I told you so...", but anyone who did watch my forecast Late Thursday and Friday morning heard me talk about the southeast coast. Well it looks like Christobol developed in a hurry and just enough to drop beneficial rain to North Carolina. Now it jumps off of the coast and we can focus on the heat, afternoon storms and the developing tropics. Our chance of rain will move in Tuesday with that complex in the mid-west this morning. We could have a dramatic drop in temperatures on Wednesday with clouds and rain around...

More Tropical Activity
It is like popcorn in the microwave. You sit, and wait, and then the slow popping becomes a constant chatter...

Here is Tropical Storm Dolly- as of 5am.
If you go remember my discussion on Bertha- I mentioned the likelihood of a model track bias. Bertha ended up on the 'right' side of the forecast cone. Considering the weekend track for Christobol- the same story. Instead of hugging the coast, it is jumping out to the Atlantic. That is why I see the good potential of Dolly hitting Texas.
The current track has it very close to the boarder resort of South Padre Island, but I would lean north of that between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.
Here is the NAM model has it a little faster, but on the northern edge of the forecast cone.
This is the model output for Wednesday morning. A day faster, but with the impact of a growing storm. As it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it will move over some very warm pools of water. Temperature range is from 86F to near 90F. Tomorrow I will pull up some of those water temperature maps and see if there is a better handle on the storm track.

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