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Thursday, July 3, 2008

Mini Heat Wave, Holiday Humidity, Beach Bummer

Today is the first and last day of this heat wave. So basically, it isn't. I expect us to get up to the low 90s, but it will take some effort. This approaching front has thrown some clouds our way this morning- but it made for this great 'pink sky' as viewed from the Maryland Science Center- across the Inner Harbor to the National Aquarium.
While this band of high, thin clouds did make it closer than I thought, I still expect a mostly sunny day.

Here is the morning surface map. That High Pressure sliding off the coast will allow a shift of wind to the southwest. The approaching cold front will help the pressure gradient pump up the wind. This afternoon gusts up to 20mph will get our temps into the 90s.
I've also analyzed a developing wave along the front in Missouri. In fact there are a few of these- and that will help to slow down the front this weekend. Typically cold fronts are fast movers, but this time of year, they don't have the cold air push behind them to through the Mid Atlantic. The tough thing is the timing of the first round of rain. Depending on how close it can get tomorrow, we also have to consider the wind shift to the south and south east. That is a more humid flow, and often increases our chance of pre-frontal rain. Right now, I am leaning towards July 4th to turn mostly cloudy and humid. We will just have to watch the radar for rain and storms to develop- but I would bring the storm chance to 40% downtown in the evening.
It is likely to transition to a stationary front and stick around for the weekend. This will cause our winds to stay southeast and hold the clouds in place. Watching the wave along the front- Sunday appears to be the best chance for more widespread rain, and cooler temperatures.
Sorry, but this outlook seems to be spiralling down each day.

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