Weekend Chill, Winter Forecast (Not Mine)

As advertised all week, the cooler air is spilling in, and this will be the way we balance out the warm week. There will be another disturbance passing through on Saturday, with it's clouds, will hold out temperatures down in the 50s. That's afternoon temperatures cooler than the last few mornings.

My forecast for Sunday morning's Susan G Komen's Race for the Cure in Hunt Valley will likely dip down into the 30s. We are expecting 40,000 people at the event, so perhaps we can help make it feel warmer.


The cold air has put me in the mood to start looking forward to winter. Come on, I know I am not alone. I like to wait until November to make my call, since it allows me a chance to see how the pattern is holding or evolving- some put their forecasts out very early. Many are trending cold and snowy, like this one from Henry M at Accuweather. His forecast calls for an Eastern Storm Track that will keep us colder with heavier snow than normal. The northern plains will near to below normal, while the Rockies will have more snow on the northern half. A closer look below, shows Baltimore close to 30 inches, above our seasonal average of 18-21 inches. It should be noted that Carrol County typically can see 36 inches, while less than 12 inches is the norm on the Lower Eastern Shore. I will compile all of the forecasts and post them on my snow page (under reconstruction now)

End of Summer Cold

Perhaps it's the exhaustion of a full week of Fay (Stormpulse Tracking now on it's own page in Seasonal Tab above- main web site). Perhaps it's the lack of sleep from watching Phelps little Nastia late night from Beijing... Either way- I took it on the chin this weekend with a cold. The worst cold I have had in years. No one is supposed to get sick in the summer, are they? It just seemed like a waste, with great weather to boot. The yard work was neglected, but I was able to clean up my hard drive a little bit.
Now for the 'real' cold that some of you might care more about...
The Farmer's Almanac will hit the newsstand Tuesday with a forecast that may hurt in many ways....
While this is one of MANY almanacs, and a forecast that is generated up to 2 years ahead of time... it does boast an 80% accuracy. Here is their account from last year's forecast.
So what is it?
"Numbs The Word"
Or to put it bluntly: Colder than normal for most of the US.
At least that is what this publication is saying... Click here for the AP story. You know, that just got a free commercial out of this forecast... and I bet I could make some money if I had the first winter outlook attached in print. So take ti for what it's worth...
There is also Old Farmer's Almanac that gets into the swing soon. Not to leave out the Hagerstown Almanac, and numerous others.
The National Weather Service is actually going the other way- with a warmer than normal winter outlook. Here is the temperature outlook from The Climate Prediction Center for November-December-January. The orange shading speaks for itself.
So why will this hurt,? Those of you that know me, know I love snow. The utilities will no doubt get exploited, as well as a wide range of forecast to follow...In the past- I have posted all of the winter forecasts I could find on my old web page with Weather Talk Radio. I will put a new list together on this site this year, so stay tuned for the details.. As for me, I like to wait until the fall pattern sets up to get an idea of what we will see into the winter...