Back To Normal...

You know that feeling- after the holidays? The foods been eaten, the family is gone, oh and the presents have been opened... and then there is the lull back of normal. It's like that box was not a Wii, but a dozen pairs of socks. So, there is no snow on the ground to look at, and the results of my latest poll show the disappointment, but expected average of a low B with my last forecast. OK, so it's back to work! Our weather has undergone some drama with the chill and especially the wind. I was just going through some of the reports from the weekend and saw the peak wind at Anne Arundel Community College in Glen Burnie hit 63mph on Sunday. Now with calm winds, and a chilly morning, it's just waiting for the temps to rebound. Last year we set our record high on this date with 72F. This afternoon we will just barely get back into the 40s. You can see the Almanac on the TV Weather Graphics page.
If you click over the Radars and Stuff page, you'll see general pattern is passing to our north. This may provide some clouds tomorrow. The following system might just miss us to south. The models have been in and out on this. Here is the Canadian (my personal favorite), showing the southern branch storm. This is not what you might think. No chance of this turning up the coast- just shooting out to sea. However, the chance of us getting clipped on the northern fringe with flurries or light snow. I should note that this is one of the more aggressive models, while most are keeping us dry. I just want to keep the hope alive for many of you who are searching for something. It also gives me something to talk about. beyond this, the weekend storm looks like another Great Lakes Track. that would be a rainmaker for us, but still 6 days out.
TOMORROW: Current La Nina Animations

Report Card: A Whole Lot of Nothing?

Here is the verified surface weather map for Sunday morning. The same time frame I was using with the GFS model all week. Overall, I think it did a good job with positioning. The major problem was the delay in the initial precipitation. Since it began for most of us between 7pm-9pm, the atmosphere had a chance to warm up a little and not produce the snow or sleet expected. That would have helped to hold the temps down longer, and result in more ice. I did notice many spots did have some icing north and west of the beltway. Even ABC2 was down below freezing until midnight, so some ice did build up, but not much.
Here was what I woke up to: I live north in 'hill country' and did not break to 33F until 4am. This begs the question: Does it count if you slept through it? I've often wondered that. That goes along the same lines as you hearing a forecast for snow, but it's not in front of you house. So if it happened, but not for your area, is that a busted forecast?
This brings up another poll questions I have posted at the right.
I may be hard or easy on my own forecast, but how would you rate it? If you have not been following all week, you can scroll down for all of the previous blog posts. I held off on early snow maps, but even when I put out about 1 inch, it did not happen. We got ice, but later, and less than expected. If you see my map below, the purely rain area, including Baltimore City and BWI were on target. So how did I do? I give my forecast a B/B-. Not exact, but not bad. Am I being too hard or too nice? I am polling just straight letter grades for simplicity. You 2ns Guess poll results show most of you caught on to the rain winning...
The final part of this storm will be the wind. We do have Wind Advisory for this afternoon and tonight. While we may see a snow shower- especially north and west... we should all have winds gusting between 40 and 50 mph.
If you can watch the Patriot Game in New England. They will be dealing with the heart of this storm. On the edge of ice and snow, could make for near white out conditions....

You win! The Early Snowmap and another model.

The 1st Snow Poll is now closed. I was surprised at the response to not show the early map, yet then final surge just barely won 54 to 50. 20 of you would rather wait until after the storm. Well, here it is, but small enough for those of you who don't want to see it. THIS IS NOT MY FORECAST! I don't know this forecaster, but it came from an Accuweather forecaster on Tuesday. It shows Baltimore in the 3"-6" range. I'm curious to see if he has changed his outlook since then. Again, if you click the image, you may have trouble backing up here. Copy URL and paste back in browser - sorry.
I am off work on Friday I will make my first call here during lunch time. I have posted a new Snow Poll at the right. Here you can share you're best 1st guess of total snow (not including ice, etc) for the Baltimore area. This does not include the northern snow-burbs, but the official report at the airport on Sunday night. I'll run another one on Saturday as well to see if you change your mind.

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More Model Support. Here is a 75 Hr forecast from the SREF my buddy Tony Pann sent me. This is for Sunday afternoon and holds the morning GFS idea. Notices the coastal Low over DE, and MD is on the back side. This looks like the primary, with no occlusion or transfer. This would be in response to a strong block to our north. I'm sure the message boards are lit up this evening with renewed hope.