Summer Finale. Gustav on the Gulf. Hanna Could Hit Us

Labor Day is often viewed as the end of summer. At least since it marks the end of the State Fair, and kids are back in school. Heck, even the leaves have started to turn- but I will have to save that discussion until this tropical week ends...
I heard a story on the radio early this morning on my way to work... The New York area beaches have had a dramatic drop in visitors this summer. The reporter mentioned the lack of 90 degree days as the reason...and I think we have had a similar set up down here. Does it seem like we have not had much of a summer? Here you can see that the number of 90F degree days have dropped off each month this summer. June- 9 days, July- 8 days, August- only 4 days.

Hurricane GUSTAV
Just a watching game now. You can track along on the Tropics tab above (main web site). My only question, as a broadcast journalist- all the coverage you will see on TV today will be from reporters and cameras in locations that were evacuated. How safe can they be?

Tropical Storm Hanna
Here is the overnight (spaghetti) 6 model plot. As you can see, there are a quite a few solutions, all of which take this on shore. The red line is the GFS, which brings it over Baltimore- after trekking through North Carolina and losing some strength. At the forward speed, this model does have it as a minimal Tropical Storm when reaching us. Below is the GFS Model for Friday night. You can see the center of the storm just to our south, and heading our way. This model is important since it is one of the primary models we use for our mid to long range weather, and can take over from the Tropical Models by adding in land data those don't incorperate. This is the second day I have seen this scenario, so it is worth watching for consistency. This is just one of many possibilities. As of now, we have at least 5 days to prepare...

Models Zero Gustav in on Louisiana

I said last week that I would be amazed if this storm worked out with precision on the LA coastline. In fact, I continued to call for the model bias to far west. Well, I was wrong, here this morning you can see the model agreement slamming just west of New Orleans. This reminds me of the super-storm of '93, when the MRF model was put on the scene with a near perfect forecast 120 hrs (5 Days) out. Sometimes the really big ones don't have to deal with being impacted by other systems to screw things up.
This path would keep the storm surge on the worst case scenario. Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River will take a steady flow from the east and pile up more water than Katrina just based on track alone.

Fluctuation in Strength

Here is the Potential Heat Map showing the warm pool loop north of Cuba, while the depth of the warm water and the temperatures are not as supportive closer to the coast. This is why Katrina weakened just before landfall, and Gustav should do the same. So while it may get back to Cat 4 or maybe just barely a 5, it should break down a little as it reaches land late tomorrow. The bad news is that the 'wave memory' will have a surge resembling the strong version of the storm. This is mush like Isabel did for us. It peaked out at 150mph winds 3-4 days before making landfall, but was beat down to a Category 1/2, with much stronger surge than anyone truly expected up the bay. Consider the forward speed as well, acting like a boat pushing a wake. As of this morning, it was swiftly moving at 16mph, and may speed up. That shortens the time until landfall, and it's chance to weaken much. It also itself increases the wave pressure in front of the storm. so a Category 3 storm moving at 15-20mph may produce a higher surge than a Category 3 moving at 5 mph. In fact you might equate the surge to that of a Category 5- pushing the limits of 25-35 feet of water, similar to what Katrina did to Biloxi, MS.

Tropical Storm Hanna is like the GOP convention. It's still there, but not getting the press coverage it should. We will have to watch this storm, as it may now shift north from the Bahamas to the east coast.
Here is the GFS model showing it at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay next Saturday. Wouldn't that just stink! I'm supposed to host a Fantasy Football League Party that day!
This is just one of the many potentials, and still 1 week away.
It's good TV, but a horrible set up for too many people. Good luck and G-D speed to the people on the coast.

Gustav Hype and Heat Potential, Labor Day Looking Up

Since this is the last day of our noon show, I am taking it easy this morning. There has already be so much hype over Gustav- especially on this anniversary of Katrina- that it may actually scare the storm away!

Here is a map of the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. It measures more than just water surface temperature, but the depth of that warm water as well. When big waves churn up the water, having that heat source go deep is crucial. You can see that there is a source of heat energy into the Gulf, but that drops off closer to land on the coastline. That may be important, since like Katrina- Gustav could weaken on it's way to landfall. The jury is still out on the track considering the influence of approaching High Pressure into the Central Plains of the US. You can still track along with Stormpulse on my Tropics Page in the Seasonal Tab on the main web site.
Also-Check out the TV Graphics which highlight the improved weather for Labor Day. It looks like we will be close to 90F by the middle of next week. Summer is not done yet, but I will be in the Poconos this weekend to see some of the leaves already turning.

'Fay' Here Today, Gustav Getting Stronger, Phoenix Flooding and Water Rescue Video

NOTE: I deleted this video, since I could not get it to load up on a pause. If you want the link, send ma and email...
What remains of the historic Tropical Storm Fay is just a wet storm. It's here today, and living up to it's image as a slow mover. Our threat of showers will last into Saturday. The afternoons will have more impressive returns on the radar, and that means a good chance of building thunderstorms. We need the rain, so suck it up- at least be happy your lawn gets to do just that.
This cold front in the Great Lakes will try to sweep everything through on Saturday, and if it times out properly, then we will have an improved Sunday along with Labor Day Monday. The 'end of summer' could give us sunshine and temps back into the 80s...

Gustav had weakened yesterday, but strengthening this morning. As of this morning, it was still a Tropical Storm. In fact it went against my theory, went got a push to the southwest. It is being influenced by High Pressure in the Gulf. While the latest track (follow along on the Tropics Page in the Seasonal tab above- on justinweathertalk.com) shows a target for New Orleans, I would be stunned it that worked out with that precision this far out. Odds are it will end up somewhere in the 300 mile range in the 5 day cone... but at least New Orleans is taking this seriously. That had similar warning for Katrina, but if I went further into- it would get political, and some of you won't like the real truth about the responsibility (it was the local jurisdiction's fault). Needless to say, expecting New Orleans to take this on the chin is a stretch. If and when this play out a little differently, can we finally accept that the long range models on Global Warming are not precise as well???? Computer Models are not perfect! Although on a rare occasion the blind squirrel finds a nut. Here you can see the outlook shows another storm that may get named Hanna today. Two more stretching back to the African coast. We are entering the most active 4 weeks of Hurricane season and it is living up to is expectation.

Monsoon Mania:
This is the time of year the desert gets wet. It's the end of summer when the winds shift and allow rain to fall in the southwest. Here is video (deleted on Aug 31- email me for the link)of Live coverage from our sister station in Phoenix showing a car stuck against a bridge with a dangerous rescue. Only 6 inches of moving water can pick up an SUV. This is obviously much higher, but what a rescue attempt. I can't understand why they went to commercial break???

Sunrise To Soaker

Here was the view I showed on TV at 6:15am. Official sunrise was 6:31am, but the pre-dawn light played a nice trick with the lightning and gave us this foreshadowing? Have you heard of the saying, "Red sky in morning, sailors take warning."?
That relates to the sunrise colors showing up like this with advancing high and mid level clouds ahead of a storm. Today the storm is the remains of Fay.
As that moves through the Appalachians, it is running up against the High Pressure that has brought us northeasterly winds and this cool dry feel to the air. Who will win today. The computer models are split. So much that the NGM model has us near 80F with sun, while the NAM has us at 72F with rain beginning close to noon. What to do? What to do?
I split the difference expecting rain Annapolis southbound, but dry Baltimore and north. To play it safe, just bring an umbrella with you, and know that I did my best.
This will be a tough call as the center of Low pressure will pass to our west. Over the next few days, a cool NE will hold us in the 70s, and the best chance of showers will be during the afternoons with developing daytime storms.

Tropical Storm Gustav
The storm clipped Haiti overnight and weakened below Hurricane Status. It will reorganize over the water today, and could reach Major Hurricane status at Category 3 or higher into the weekend. The computer models continue to try and keep this south of Cuba, then enter the Gulf of Mexico. The most disturbing outlook is the primary model the National Hurricane Center uses-the GFDL. Here (click image for larger view), the model is fastest, and locked in on New Orleans 120 hrs out with a Major Hurricane of a Category 3-, but weakening as it approaches land. HMMmmmmmmmmmmmmm The odds of this working out exactly as we see 5 days out is very slim. That is the good news. The bad news is that if this stay on the consensus track, it will have more warm water and likely reach that dreaded Major Hurricane Status. Stay tuned. Remember, our rain on the way, is from what used to be Tropical Storm Fay.

Falling Temps, Falling Rain, And A New Hurricane

This new air mass has dramatically dropped our temperatures. As it moved in this morning, I watched us go from near 70F into the 50s just north of the city. This northern branch has been treating us to an autumn preview since last week's High Pressure . The same one that caused Fay to stall in Florida. This one will move through, and allow the remnants of Fay to slip up to our west. The question is the where will Fay roll? There is a split in the models- some taking it up into Ohio, while the Canadian and GFS still trying to bring it over Maryland Thursday-Saturday. Working out those details will be the difference between the chance of showers, or steady rain. Stay tuned...

Another Hurricane
Reminder that the StormPulse Tracking Maps can now be found in the Seasonal Tab above (main web site)- Tropics link.
Here is the tracking map and stats as of 5am this morning. Gustav strengthened in a hurry, and has a lot of warm water to feed off of. The question is will it do so, or hurt itself with it's path. The National Hurricane Center outlook has a very large margin for error 5 days out at the end of the cone. According to this, Gustav can end up anywhere from Belize to Tampa, FL. I have circled the right side of the track considering the model bias I have noted with many of our recent storms. These tropical systems tend to stay on the right or east side of the forecast path. That would allow it to ride over Cuba, much like Fay did. That would hinder it's potential over the rugged mountains and keeping it away from the warm water it uses for fuel.
This is somewhat connected to what we have in place in the East.... If Fay's remnants are allowed to move farther east/closer to us, then that means the ridge of High Pressure we have will have less impact in any pressure holding Gustav on the southern fringe. That puts soggy Florida in the potential grip of another soaker. By that point, anything is possible. Which means we could watch the or East Coast for Gustav's future.