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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Falling Temps, Falling Rain, And A New Hurricane

This new air mass has dramatically dropped our temperatures. As it moved in this morning, I watched us go from near 70F into the 50s just north of the city. This northern branch has been treating us to an autumn preview since last week's High Pressure . The same one that caused Fay to stall in Florida. This one will move through, and allow the remnants of Fay to slip up to our west. The question is the where will Fay roll? There is a split in the models- some taking it up into Ohio, while the Canadian and GFS still trying to bring it over Maryland Thursday-Saturday. Working out those details will be the difference between the chance of showers, or steady rain. Stay tuned...

Another Hurricane
Reminder that the StormPulse Tracking Maps can now be found in the Seasonal Tab above (main web site)- Tropics link.
Here is the tracking map and stats as of 5am this morning. Gustav strengthened in a hurry, and has a lot of warm water to feed off of. The question is will it do so, or hurt itself with it's path. The National Hurricane Center outlook has a very large margin for error 5 days out at the end of the cone. According to this, Gustav can end up anywhere from Belize to Tampa, FL. I have circled the right side of the track considering the model bias I have noted with many of our recent storms. These tropical systems tend to stay on the right or east side of the forecast path. That would allow it to ride over Cuba, much like Fay did. That would hinder it's potential over the rugged mountains and keeping it away from the warm water it uses for fuel.
This is somewhat connected to what we have in place in the East.... If Fay's remnants are allowed to move farther east/closer to us, then that means the ridge of High Pressure we have will have less impact in any pressure holding Gustav on the southern fringe. That puts soggy Florida in the potential grip of another soaker. By that point, anything is possible. Which means we could watch the or East Coast for Gustav's future.

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