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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Sunrise To Soaker

Here was the view I showed on TV at 6:15am. Official sunrise was 6:31am, but the pre-dawn light played a nice trick with the lightning and gave us this foreshadowing? Have you heard of the saying, "Red sky in morning, sailors take warning."?
That relates to the sunrise colors showing up like this with advancing high and mid level clouds ahead of a storm. Today the storm is the remains of Fay.
As that moves through the Appalachians, it is running up against the High Pressure that has brought us northeasterly winds and this cool dry feel to the air. Who will win today. The computer models are split. So much that the NGM model has us near 80F with sun, while the NAM has us at 72F with rain beginning close to noon. What to do? What to do?
I split the difference expecting rain Annapolis southbound, but dry Baltimore and north. To play it safe, just bring an umbrella with you, and know that I did my best.
This will be a tough call as the center of Low pressure will pass to our west. Over the next few days, a cool NE will hold us in the 70s, and the best chance of showers will be during the afternoons with developing daytime storms.

Tropical Storm Gustav
The storm clipped Haiti overnight and weakened below Hurricane Status. It will reorganize over the water today, and could reach Major Hurricane status at Category 3 or higher into the weekend. The computer models continue to try and keep this south of Cuba, then enter the Gulf of Mexico. The most disturbing outlook is the primary model the National Hurricane Center uses-the GFDL. Here (click image for larger view), the model is fastest, and locked in on New Orleans 120 hrs out with a Major Hurricane of a Category 3-, but weakening as it approaches land. HMMmmmmmmmmmmmmm The odds of this working out exactly as we see 5 days out is very slim. That is the good news. The bad news is that if this stay on the consensus track, it will have more warm water and likely reach that dreaded Major Hurricane Status. Stay tuned. Remember, our rain on the way, is from what used to be Tropical Storm Fay.

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