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Tuesday, August 19, 2008


We will have another day near 90F with a small chance of a thundershowerThis morning, Fay made landfall in CAPE Coral as a Tropical Storm with winds of 60 mph. The good news is that it ran out of water (it's fuel source). The bad news, is that it is slowing down. As of 5am, it was moving at around 8mph. It should slow to 5 mph which will keep the heavy rain over the same areas longer. Remember the storm in Towson last week? This will be that on a much larger scale. Say compare my swimming skills to Phelps, and you'll get the idea. Here is the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center rainfall forecast for the next 5 days... You can see a 8.4 inch total near Ft. Meyers. The light blue bulls eye east of Jacksonville is 25 inches! That yellow shade does put most of the state in 7 inches to over 12 inches. While a drought buster, it will be a major flood producer.
This is because the storm forecast is to cross Florida, get out over the Atlantic and turn back west near Jacksonville. This is yet more proof to my theory of the forecast track bias. This is far to the east of the original expectation. Any change in track, stalling, or earlier turn could significantly add to the rain totals.

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