Coldest Winter in 7 years. Once Again, I'm Torn!

It's Official: This winter has been cold! I have pointed out the record snow and cold for most of the nation, while we have had a somewhat uneventful winter. Now NOAA has officially stated that this winter (Dec., Jan, and Feb.) has been the coldest for the globe since 2001. That bucks the trend! While some might give full credit to the La Nina (cooler Pacific Ocean Pattern)- this does date back to the southern Hemisphere winter last year- before the La Nina took hold.
For more on this report- click here or the image at the left.


Next: The round of low pressures ready to hit us over the weekend. It's likely they surround Saturday with morning and evening rain- but dry most of the day as one departs and the second arrives. It's the second and stronger low that has me on the fence. How many times this winter have I mentioned a storm that could "end as snow". The models have shown the cold air wrapping in just as the moisture departs. Here we go again. This time a difference is seen between models. I have here an example showing the snow in the NAM/WRF model which looks impressive for Saturday night into Sunday morning. The UKMET also shows at least some flurries possible on Sunday morning. While the GFS model- which lines up with the NGM and Canadian show the system racing out of here by early Sunday with all of the moisture locked too far away.

WINTER STORM WATCH

The net result of Wednesday's storm was very close to my forecast (you can see in the post below).
Here you see 2 distinct bands of moderate snow. Unfortunately for most in the Baltimore metro area, it was just around 1 inch. That is in tune with my original forecast, yet the increased range did verify north and south. Annapolis was the big winner with 4 inches of the fluffy stuff. However DC and Chantily, VA barely got a dusting... Just bad luck I guess.

As of 6am- here is Winter Storm Watch Map, and my First Call:














The overnight models are trying to push BWI up to around 34-36 on Friday which would turnover to plain rain. However the model trend has been to be too biased with storms, pushing them to far north.
Below is what I am looking at to factor into my forecast:

1. Storm track verifies just a little south and east.
2. Colder temps this morning, plus snow pack may establish a colder start for the storms arrival.
3. NE wind= Cold air Damming. Most models are notorious for warming us up to fast. Take the Election Day storm for example... While it may not guarantee more snow, it could mean a longer duration of ice. That's not good for anyone! The freezing line often sets up near I-95 thanks to our geography and topography. The bay can warm up nearby areas, while the hills (500ft-1000ft) stay cooler, and lock cold dense air in the valleys longest.
4. Warming at cloud level will make this more of a wet/heavy snow (compared to yesterday), and likely push sleet or freezing rain for most of central Maryland during Friday.

Here is a breakdown of wintry precipitation:

The red layer show warmer temperatures (above freezing), above the ground which can remain cold. It all depends on how thick that layer of warm air.
Sleet: A raindrop has a thicker layer of cold air to refreeze before reaching the ground.
Freezing Rain: A raindrop does not freeze until after it touches the ground/tree/power line, etc.

Mid Day Update:
I am having a hard time accepting the morning model package. While there is trend down in temps (especially the GFS), I still think it is too warm. The range is from 33F-36F. That is for BWI. Remember Election Day? That was also a set up with below freezing temps lasting most of the day from Towson north. As for maps and charts and stuff... They don't show much, but I will try to get back on later today to highlight something. However, it all breaks down to this... There is pretty much a guarantee that it will start as snow, and drop 1-2 inches by daybreak. There is also a guarantee of mid level warming, so sleet and extended freezing rain will be the mid day and afternoon story (north). The potential is for 1/2 inch of ice on top of the snow. That could allow it to stick better and cause the power problems late in the day.
So I am sticking with my initial forecast I have above. Depending on how fast and intense the snow builds in, will be the ultimate test for how much we end up with. For many, not much more than when you wake up- because of the change over.

Just a Nuisance

First it was the computer bug at work yesterday. I was unable to log into my system after my lunch break, so I could not update this blog...Yet the time lapse of last week's snow is still below.
Second: This Advisory. 10AM-4PM
CANCELED As of 12:30PM
A little snow and sleet, perhaps ending as rain. It will be light, but could be enough to be slippery. A Nuisance! Considering that we have been in the deep freeze, it should be easier for anything to stick- as opposed to last Thursday when it took a heavy burst of snow to cool down the pavement. While I think the schools should stay in session- it may be something a knee jerk reaction could prove otherwise.
It may get slick- but this does not look to be any more than a coating for most of us, however sometimes that is all it takes. The computer guidance shows a range of just a coating to at most just over an inch. If anyone gets much more than 1 inch of snow- I will be surprised. Likely that even if there is a little enhancement- it will be sleet and rain at that point. If you notice me covering my words- that's because after 10 years in Baltimore- "what I might consider light could be enough to fright".

Now that I am back in the system, I will post later this morning about the next chance of a storm (this weekend). I am waiting for the morning model package to come out.

Updated: Record Anniversary Heat Wave and Elevation Snow

This is a quick morning update. I will do my best to post this afternoon with a snow-cast map.
First: This is the anniversary of the most impressive January Heat Wave on record in Baltimore.
The year: 1932

• January 13th: 76F
• January 14th: 79F * Hottest ever for the month
• January 15th: 78F

As for tonight's storm, still on the fence. My basic impression is two-fold.

1. As coastal develops, cold air will wrap in at cloud level, surface temps will be bordering freezing. That means sleet and snow likely, but higher elevations will have a better chance for 'stickage' and some accumulation. Note: BWI is near sea level. Towson, Cockeysville and Owings Mills are a little over 400Ft. Reisterstown and Parkton are close to 800Ft.
   
2. Monday morning the storm pulls away, but 'comma' head or heavy precip around the low center may clip eastern sections. Based on temperature profile and track, Cecil county could be the big winner. Early sampling shows potential for 3"-6" from Cecil County to Philadelphia. While NYC and Boston could get 1 foot of snow. Around the beltway, elevation plays role for north side to have the best shot of 'stickage' and accumulation... but roads temps may also be an issue.

Afternoon Update:
The storm might not look like much when you go to bed. It will develop overnight, but looks like just past us. Once a Low Pressure center passes our latitude (north of 39.0N) then we tend to get downsloped and cut off our precip. That looks like the position of the Low when it rapidly develops. The NAM model here for 7am Monday is actually the most impressive. Most have it well past us by then. If you watched the Packer's game last night and saw their snow- it's that Great Lake's storm that is pushing this coastal development a little farther east. This is the 3rd model run with with less moisture and warmer temperatures. I does not look promising! I've highlighted the general forecast area in yellow while the comma head I mentioned above just clips Cecil County. If you watch Good Morning MD on ABC2 I will be focusing on this Monday. Below is the video blog and my snowcast map.

This map was my call from home, below is Emily Gracey's map from ABC2. I think her conservative call on snow will work out better than mine... this made be just a little farther east, and pretty much done for us in the morning.

CHANGES- It's back on for Monday Morning.

I should have stayed with my own advice. The GFS has a tendency to flip when longer than 48Hrs ahead of a storm. It looks like it is back on for Monday- but analyzing all of the data, it looks like a classic borderline forecast for us. Pretty good dose of moisture on last nights model run (over 1" liquid equivalent). I-95 corridor could be a very cold rain or sleet and snow. The GFS has BWI at just above 32F but some upper level support for freezing precip. Here is a quick look at the latest NAM. I have a busy morning, but will post what I can concerning the other models this afternoon.
That GFS video clip I did yesterday is still available below. I will try to do another one, which still shows two more storms, but some changes. All will depend on how this first thing behaves...

Major Ice for Some, Others Get None

Fellow weather geeks that have followed the models have seen the trend. The poll at the right reflects the shift to a track farther west. Is all lost? The arctic air has not truly built in here, and the tropical feed into this system will have dramatic warming on the east side. Again, for simplicity, I have been comparing just one model - the GFS - all week to show how elements can change. This also proves my point from earlier this week with that ridiculous snowcast on Tuesday. There are so many models to look at and decipher, many layers of the atmosphere, and text extractions (that won't look pretty here). If I showed it all I would run out of room on this blog- and bore half of you out of here. So let's stick with the basics and continue with the GFS which in fact I think is doing the best job. If you want to discuss other models, you can shoot me an e-mail. I'll try to get back with all of you (but it is the weekend). Here you can see the primary Low still dominant Sunday morning, and slower development of the secondary low. That second low is too close to us, and not off of the coast- which allows the warm flow to dominate. Some areas will get hammered! North/Central PA through central New England will get a major ICE STORM. This may include parts of central MD- but warm air will scream in here Sunday morning. The 'vertical velocities' and tropical support from Olga will produce heavy rain rates and likely thunderstorms... especially for the Eastern Shore. Where the cold air holds longer, moderate icing of 1/2" or more is possible. I think that will be confined west of us.
Even though some sun and warming have taken place today, keep this in mind:

• Low dewpoints will allow for evaporational cooling. The initial precipitation evaporates and drops the temperature to the Wet Bulb level. So when it starts, it will get cooler. At noon BWI was 35F with a dewpoint temp of 19F. That gives a wet bulb near 26F. I don't see us dropping that low, but it should go back below freezing when 'stuff' begins between 4pm and 7pm.
  
• NE winds will lock in that cold air longer farther west and in valleys. While I have a general forecast map, elevation will play a role in ice- in this case, lower levels get more as warm air reaches hill tops first.
• Sunday morning potential for temperatures near 50F with heavy rain in the cities. The may be a sharp boundary with the cold air's last stand. Depending on the actual time and position of 2nd Low, will determine when the wind shifts and cold air filters back in.
• Sunday afternoon: A brief period of snow may be enough to coat the ground, or an inch or so. It's the quick drop in temps that would cause a quick freeze of anything wet.
• Sunday Night's Winds 30-50mph may drop trees and power lines

My First Call- Updated and fixed diagram

Before I get into my 1st call, a reminder that a new Snow Poll is at the right side here. That is your 1st call for total snow at BWI. This includes beginning and end of storm, by Sunday night.
Also, a lot of questions on freezing rain. Here is a great animation explaining winter precipitation. As warm air works in to a storm, it often rides above the ground first, while cold air which is more dense stays at the surface. Depending on how thick the layer of warm air is, and how warm it is will determine:

1. If snowflakes from the clouds melt.
2. If there is a chance to refreeze before reaching the ground.

• Sleet- Melts then refreezes
• Freezing Rain: Falls as rain, freezes on the ground.

The most extreme I have seen was in Danbury, CT with rain at 19F. A few years ago we have drizzle at 21F in front of ABC2 Studios.

Being my day off, this will be brief... The models have been all over the place. There general idea I see is slower with the development of the coastal Low. This will make for a longer duration event. Considering the Coastal Low synopsis, it also means a better chance that we have an ice storm. Calling total snow will be tough since I still think we will see it on the bookends - both beginning and end of the storm Sunday evening. All snow line will be well to the north - highlighted in white. Most likely we get between 1/2 and 3 inches (north) of snow then change to sleet/freezing rain quickly after dark. This coastal Low during Sunday should bring us back to snow around noon. Depending on the strength and position we could pick up a few inches on the back side before ending. There is model support for the warm air to get in with temps in the upper 40s Sunday morning. I don't fully agree with that. Cold air damming usually is tough to break west of the bay. That is why I-95 or the bay often ends up as the dividing line. The cold air gets banked up just east of the mountains. Its possible that Frederick and Carroll counties have much more ice than Frostburg which will likely turn to rain closer to the primary low. Again this is 'roughly' what I see right now. It could all change with just a shift 50-100 miles on tonight's models. One thing to look out for is how cold it gets tonight. If we end up low to mid 20s before the clouds roll in, it will hold us lower at the onset. Updated at 3:30pm: It should be noted that storms like to set footprints for themselves. In this case the snow or ice pack can lock in the freezing air. But something that should not get left out is the wind on the back side of this storm..GALE FORCE in the metro areas throughout the region. That means if there is ice on trees, etc., it will be a major problem. Still thinking just north and west - as typical.
I'll get back Saturday morning. This whole event will also determine if I have to get back to work myself this weekend, so I have a personal investment here.

Wednesday's Waiting Game

First- a reminder of the Snow Poll on the right. I will act on the results. Comments should be fixed, so please share your thoughts...
Today: The warm up. It was expected to be the warmest day, but huge bust potential as any sunshine could jump temps into the 70s. Since we were at 52F at 5am, I am conservatively going 60F-65F. Just waiting on the front just west which could slide in before evening with rain.
Tomorrow: Rain ending as snow? Always waiting for the next model run, but based on my morning forecast, here you can see the NGM 'slow with the low'. Based on this projection, the final wave along this old front will be to our southwest on Thursday evening. Cold air will spill in, but not allow the freezing line to catch up and for us to turn over to end as snow.

Here however is the NAM model for the same time. You can see the low has passed to our south 'east'. That would allow the north wind to drag down colder air. There is one problem here. Notice the yellow line- that is the famed '540 line'. A thickness measured that often relates to the rain/snow line in storms. It is too far north, but not the only ingredient. There is a lot of information to decipher, but here is the 850mb Temperature map. This is an idea of where the freezing line might set up at cloud level (roughly 4,000Ft). What's difficult here is that surface temps may be above freezing while it's cold enough aloft. I see this an an elevation thing at best. Which means Hereford Zone and up near the PA line has the best chance, but lower elevations will not allow any clouds flakes to survive the trip. Locally, just a near miss for most of us.
As for this weekend storm, remember when I said it was too early to get excited? There has been a lot of talk about the potential for this coastal bomb, and you will likely see fluctuations in the models. The GFS model I have been showing demonstrates this often. It has a warm bias with coastals, and can shift a rain snow line 100 miles with each run. Here you can see it is 200 miles north of yesterday's position for Sunday morning. It could very well shift back with the next output, but a sign of how fickle the chaotic atmosphere is. To plot a specific time, place, snow line and amount too far out is nearly impossible. Surely the potential for a big east coast storm is safe, but not who gets what. I've seen it too many times, and don't want to get myself excited, nor scare the viewers. Should I also mention that there is also a chance that energy from Olga gets pulled into the east coast trough? I will, if it holds tomorrow. Again, a waiting game. We wait for the next model to see if the trend is faster and farther, slower or closer. Snow, ice, rain, or a bust. Please vote in the 'Snow Poll' and Stay tuned...

TerribleTues-day?

Let's start off with what we missed yesterday. I pointed out the warm air to the south, but this is ridiculous. While we were stuck at 47F, Richmond hit 79F! If you read my blog last Friday/Saturday which discussed this warm up just missing us, I truly never expected anything like this.

OK- Parents know about those 2's...sorry for the bad pun, but there is so much to talk about today: Ice Storm in the mid west, Sub Tropical Storm near Puerto Rico, and a weekend Winter Storm for us???
The ice storm in Oklahoma might be the worst in recent memory with power outages, trees snapping and covering roads, a morning tally of 18 deaths - it's just bad! All is not OK in OK. Check out this scary statement the NWS posted yesterday:

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE TULSA AREA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY. SOME INTERSECTIONS MAY NOT YET HAVE TEMPORARY FOUR WAY STOP SIGNS. CALL 911 FOR LIFE THREATENING EMERGENCIES ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT HANG
UP IF YOU CALL, YOUR CALL WILL BE ANSWERED. THE TULSA POLICE DEPARTMENT IS ON OPERATION SLICK STREETS. IF YOU HAVE A NON INJURY ACCIDENT, DO NOT CALL 911. THE POLICE WILL NOT RESPOND. ALL HOSPITALS EXCEPT THE OSU MEDICAL CENTER AND HILLCREST MEDICAL CENTER ARE OPERATING ON BACK UP POWER. AEP-PSO HAS PRIORITIZED RESTORING POWER TO HOSPITALS FIRST. IT COULD TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR THE POWER TO BE RESTORED TO ALL HOMES. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER FROM THE COLD AT AREA HOSPITALS. SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

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The tropics continue to be active as 'Sub Tropical' Storm Olga was named yesterday. This once again brings up the question of naming storms. Recently the National Hurricane Center began the practice of naming 'sub tropical storms'. Not full Hurricanes! Some forecasters believe this is falsely inflating the numbers to justify - well either their off season purpose or the seasonal forecast. Either way, it counts as another one on the list - post season and will be a central Caribbean event this week. Click the image for a full view.

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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signal this weekend is going negative, which supports coastal snow storms for us. That is mainly due to the final push of the Midwest ice storm strengthening when it moves out to the ocean on Thursday. Here is the GFS outlook for Sunday showing a large coastal storm off of the DE coast. Both the Canadian and GFS support this, but plotting an ice/snow line this early would be purely guesswork. At this time, I would hedge my bets on a mix developing late Saturday, turning to snow on Sunday. For reference, since the GFS did the best job with this storm, I will continue to show this model's projections for Sunday morning. Remember that timing and position can vary widely over the next few days, so it's a little early to get really excited.

1 Degree of Sanity

So last night ended up to be a whole lot of nothing. Well, rain- since temperatures stayed at 33F at BWI and most of central MD. So much for that snow burst in the afternoon and Advisory. I don't make the Advisories, nor does any other TV weather guy. That is a government issue from NWS. All I can do is pass it along, even though I did not expect it. Sort of like my findings of this web image on Internet Explorer. I just found out the IE6 does not support my programs CSS files. Please try the browser link in the upper right to see what I mean...
The worst thing about snow- when it melts. A lot of that today around here. Tonight it's more of the same- rain or freezing rain. This next wave is going to be a matter of not temperature degrees, but degrees of latitude. Here are the GFS maps for Monday, since it did the best job last week with the snow on the 5th. Where does the front set up? On the left is the surface map and 12 hour precipitation. On the right is the 850mb temperature map. This level is roughly 1500m or 4,500 ft above the ground - but changes all of the time. This level helps us with ice events as well as expected temperature down at ground level. You can see I've circled the 10C in yellow, which would put us in the 60s, but the 0C in light blue is in northern PA. A sharp contrast in a close area. I still expect rain, but there will be a range of temps close to 40F or 60F depending on how far north the front can get. The atmospheric tendency has been to verify a little farther south that model predictions. That would eliminate the the GFS aiming for 60F on Monday. Although I would feel safe in the low 50s. The one caveat, if we get sun after morning rain, or the wave in OH gets stronger. That would lift the front north and would increase our likelihood of jumping on the heat bandwagon. I'm taking the rest of the weekend to watch my snow melt. It may be another two weeks until we can get more.

Noon Update

A Winter Weather Advisory was posted just before noon for tonight and Saturday morning through 6am. Looks like the cold air hangs on with another wave of moisture. Icing likely after dark for most of us. North near the PA line 1/2 to 1 inch of snow by morning. This is tough to line up since it will be warm air at cloud level that will determine who gets snow or sleet. Either way, it's light, but enough to be a pain. Click image for larger view. Updated Maps on Weather Graphics Page.

Getting More...Online and Outside.

First, I wanted to ask you to try another web browser if you are using Micr. Int. Explorer. I've posted a link here on the right. I tested my site on Explorer yesterday, and it looks quite different. I was quite disappointed. From the banner, colors, and it was missing some elements. Just give this browser a try. It's free and will work much better overall. You might actually thank me.
As for more snow.. A lot of people have asked if this start indicates a snowy winter. That's like expecting the Orioles to make the playoffs when they do well in April. We might have a better chance though, but no guarantees - yet. Today, I would focus more on light and mix. It has raced in here, and I first began to adjust my forecast on TV at noon yesterday. This morning, my car thermometer (at 3:45am) was down to 13F in Hunt Valley. BWI hit 14F. Then this cloud deck rolled in, and any heat that rose up overnight, was bounced back down to the ground, so BWI was back to 20F at 6am. This system will track just north and west, which isn't a great track for us. So On that fast pace, it now appears that it could arrive earlier, with some snow, but still be light. This is the leading edge of warmer air, which will still bring us rain this weekend as we get back into the 40s.

Every End is a New Beginning

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PA issued around Noon for SUNDAY MORNING. I'll post tonight if MD gets on board.
Today is the end of a few things... First November 30th marks the end of Hurricane Season. A season that has been marred with ridicule. First the new director of the Hurricane Center had to resign after criticizing the lack of funding for old satellites. The expected active season was a dud. Yes we had 14 named storms, 5 Hurricanes, of which 2 were major. But this article in the Miami Herald points out the miss by the forecasters. This article from the Houston Chronicle suggests that some storms did not deserve a name. I agree and had blogged about these Sub Tropical systems early in the season.
Which brings me to the new beginning: My new web site is ready! This link will take you to the What's New Page. Don' forget to look at the menu tabs for Weather Graphics, Radars, and Maryland Spotlights on County weather.This blog as you see it can be seen in my new site with a clean and simplified look. So the next time I mention that I blogged about something months ago, this archive will help you find it. For those of you that have built web sites, know the work involved. So doing this myself, and getting in by my deadline of December is a personal accomplishment. I miss my family, as I have spent a lot of my free time working on this. Thank you all for your support and allowing me to share my thoughts with you over the past few years. Now I can share more, along with your comments and pics, etc. There is still a little more development needed, but let me know what you think. Please remember to bookmark the new page.

I am waiting for the new model runs, so my forecast map for Sunday is what I am sticking with. As the cold air gets 'dammed in' from High Pressure in Eastern Canada, I still see a chance for a morning mix - especially north of Baltimore. The gradual warming will likely bring our high in the 40s at night. So mostly rain for this one, but some flurries possible on Tuesday. It can be found in my Weather Graphics

I may be right, for the wrong reason...

A few days ago, I mentioned that we had a pattern shift and a chance that the weekend storm might bring snow or a mix. Here is the temperature map of the 850mb level (above 3,ooo ft) for Saturday. The wind flow is still NW, and our numbers are around -6C. This (cloud) level and number are important for wintry precipitation. The problem is that it will be clear early Saturday. But it does set the stage for the approaching storm.


The models have been all over the place - especially the GFS. Initially it had a Low passing to our west in the Great Lakes, Tuesday night it shifted the track closer to us due to the strong cold air mass and developing trough. Last night, it went back west. This time of year I would expect that track. Here is the same GFS model for Sunday morning. While the storm will be a mean wind and snowmaker for MN, it will push a wind shift to the south for us. As the cold air gets pushed out, the warmer air is forced up and over developing 'over running' clouds and wintry mix. The pink is that precip, while the yellow line shows the likely freezing line. However, that upper level temperature will be cold enough that the first round might be snow or sleet early Sunday. When the real 'stuff' gets here, it should be rain. This is the type of situation where temperatures warm overnight. As the storm passes, the colder air has a chance to bring some Lake Erie snow showers here on Tuesday. Still 4 days out, and the models may shift again....