I may be right, for the wrong reason...

A few days ago, I mentioned that we had a pattern shift and a chance that the weekend storm might bring snow or a mix. Here is the temperature map of the 850mb level (above 3,ooo ft) for Saturday. The wind flow is still NW, and our numbers are around -6C. This (cloud) level and number are important for wintry precipitation. The problem is that it will be clear early Saturday. But it does set the stage for the approaching storm.


The models have been all over the place - especially the GFS. Initially it had a Low passing to our west in the Great Lakes, Tuesday night it shifted the track closer to us due to the strong cold air mass and developing trough. Last night, it went back west. This time of year I would expect that track. Here is the same GFS model for Sunday morning. While the storm will be a mean wind and snowmaker for MN, it will push a wind shift to the south for us. As the cold air gets pushed out, the warmer air is forced up and over developing 'over running' clouds and wintry mix. The pink is that precip, while the yellow line shows the likely freezing line. However, that upper level temperature will be cold enough that the first round might be snow or sleet early Sunday. When the real 'stuff' gets here, it should be rain. This is the type of situation where temperatures warm overnight. As the storm passes, the colder air has a chance to bring some Lake Erie snow showers here on Tuesday. Still 4 days out, and the models may shift again....