Surpise Storm: Nor'Easter Bring Taste of Winter

Yup, this one caught me off guard! I was not alone, just look at the historic World Series game last night in Philadelphia. The first time 'ever' a game was suspended due to rain. They did not plan for it, but at least the score was tied when the game was stopped. They will 'try' to resume it today, but I have my doubts. The rain should stop tonight, but the strong winds may force the delay another day. Besides, do the Phillies want to potentially win with a sparse crowd?. I claim to be a step ahead of the models... and I think I was- but then I got trampled. I had showers for our north side, and during my update yesterday afternoon, I tried to explain why it expanded south. Well this 'spin' developed into a potent storm off of the coast overnight. This rapid development, with a pressure drop over the 1mb per hour to classify a 'bomb'. This has resulted in a dramatic wind field as it pulls cold air into the center. That is why we expect gusts up to 45mph today. Even as the storm pushes farther away, the winds will continue to whip up. This Advisory map tells the true story. Wind Advisories (tan) all the way up the coast. Winter Weather Advisories (light blue) in the Poconos and Catskills. Even A Winter Storm Warning (purple) for parts of Central NY.

Here is the snowfall forecast for NY, that may make your mouth water....well mine at least.
As the cold air spills in and turns the rain to all snow this morning, Lake Ontario will also enhance the snow, especially as the storm pulls away and the wind can do it's thing.
Binghamton will have a dramatic range of 2 inches to nearly a foot from their western towns to the eastern mountains. The mountains over 3,000 and 4,000 feet in the Catskills along with the Tug Hill Plateau- east of lake Ontario could easily see well over 1 foot of snow. I can't wait to see the pictures.
The final surge of energy will arrive tomorrow with more showers developing, and some could mix in snowflakes north and west of the beltway. That does include Baltimore and Carroll Counties.

Huge Jump Up- Soon The Hard Fall Down

First: The morning TV poll on the right will continue until Friday. As of this morning, about 1/3 of the voters [my stats show this blog is read by thousands and picked up around the globe :-)] actually watch other channels in the morning. I hope to find out why after the poll ends...

Yesterday's tornado outbreak may end up a record for February.... 68 reports of touchdown and a fatality count that continues to climb...

While we are in a slight risk for severe weather today, it will take an hour or so of sun to put us over the top and destabilize the atmosphere for us. Otherwise severe weather is almost a guarantee from southern Virginia to Georgia.
This strong storm is responsible for our spring like morning. As I went through my morning routine, and analyzed where the warm front was, I just went about my biz. At BWI it was 45F at 4am, but jumped to 60F at 5am! 1 hour- 1 warm front. It continued to warm to 64F at 6am. So there went half of my morning graphics. I had to make a quick adjustment, but still on track for today. I still expect upper 60s, although any little peak of sun could push us to the record of 70F back in1938. Again the 1930s show it's face with record heat still on the books....

This will be a busy day, so I just want to touch on the big change on the way. Below are the 850mb maps showing air temperature at about 5,000Ft aloft. Analysis below the maps:

















I left this map alone- not drawing on it- to show you what jumps out on it's own. The Low and cold front to ourwest today allowing out temperatures to rise. Today's yellow shading shows 13C. compare that to morning surface temperatures around 65F

On Sunday morning, you can see another Low Pressure in the Gulf of Maine. It's cold air wrapping around and bringing us temperatures (shaded in red) of -22C. That alone is a 35 degree Centigrade drop. that could translate to surface air temperatures between 15F and 20F.