Edouard Making Landfall, I Dropped The Clicker

Here is a great view of the storm from the guys at StormPulse... You can control the map, so enjoy. You'll notice it making landfall to the north (or right side) of the forecast landfall. The bias trend continues...I have more to say below....


This morning, I dropped my clicker on the air. It was the first time in 12 years (dating back to my days in Binghamton, NY) that I did that. With the loud smack landing, the battery flew out, and all I could do was try to not laugh. I was just mentioning the prize money for the White Marlin Tournament in OC, when I said, "What are we doing here {CRASH}, and may be some are saying that about me now." Well, it may have been poetic justice. Yesterday I made the charge against the inflated oil market. I didn't hear any complaints when instead oil fell below $120 for the first time since May. This was due to two factors: First, Edouard remained weaker and maybe the post Katrina hype has settled down to reality in how the oil rigs can handle a storm. Secondly, both presidential candidates spoke on energy issues, promoting the fact that 'something' will happen with the next administration. I don't want to get political here (although some of you think I do debunking the Global Warming Hype). Whatever person/plan you agree with, most of us agree that energy is the biggest issue of this election, and just the attention to demand also configured into the equation yesterday- dropping prices. Those commodities speculators forecast just like us weather guys/gals. Except they put money into it. I have always been intrigued why they don't get more flack, since they often put other peoples money into the bids. That's your Mutual Funds and 401K plans at work.
Regardless, Edouard results should be a good thing with heavy rain and busting the Texas 100F+ heat.
Locally, strong thunderstorms may move in with this cold front. Nothing like the tornado warnings and 94mph wind gust outside of Chicago had last night, but SPC does have us in a slight risk for severe storms this afternoon.
Here is the NAM 700mb map for this evening, showing the vort max riding north into PA, but enough energy riding along the cold front through central MD. Our prime time for storms will likely be between 5pm and 10pm, but some showers could linger overnight.
Tomorrow will actually turn HOT- behind the cold front. Downslope wind from the mountains and a delay of the cool air will allow us to get into the lower 90s.

Home Sweet Home, Problems Elewhere...

OK, I am back to my old routine this week, and the weather has cooperated. At least today will be quiet albeit with a warm up back close to 90F. Tuesday and Wednesday we will jump back into the 90s with the whole humidity and storm thing.
Look at the heat wave in the south!
Widespread temps above 100F. That's Dallas that jumps out with 107F. That was a new record for them, but if they hit that mark today... it will only tie a record set in 1951.
This heat will likely continue and just a small piece gets in here Tuesday and Wednesday. We will likely jump into the 90s, but that pales in comparison. Our hottest day so far this year... 96F, back on June 10th



Tropical Storm Edouard
This is a storm like Dolly, in strengthening mode. The morning update from NHC does keep it just below hurricane status at landfall, but any small fluctuation could change that.
The interest lies in the oil rigs and hyper-sensitive market we are in. Remember Katrina? No, this is not even close, but in the same general area. The oil rigs can withstand this storm, but production may slow as personnel get evacuated. This oil market is like NASA's Mercury Rocket Program in the early 1960s. A quick launch into orbit, then a slow parachuted landing.
Below is a map of the oil rigs in the Edouard's path.... as of this morning, Oil was up about $1, and may react to the ever changing forecast. So once again, it looks like another excuse to bring gas prices back up, at least for the short term. After the storm passes, and no damage has occurred, we can watch the much slower reaction on the way down....
More importantly, there could be some flooding in the Galveston/Houston region of Texas at landfall. Some of these ares had heavy rain with Dolly's landfall 1 week and a half ago....