Could February Bring The Big Storm We Have Been Waiting For?

This is one of many computer models that came in overnight with a shift to a colder, coastal storm for Tuesday. This is only a 50 to 100 mile push east of the storm track, but could be enough to change the whole playing field.
Click here to see the break down of how some of the models looked yesterday. I will be posting my updates on Examiner.com. It is important to know that models do often bounce a little on a storm track days before the event. What is more important is to see if this trend holds.

Sunday Storm More Likely

First, give it up for Larry Cosgrove. I posted his outlook for the storm on Monday- yet it was his forecast from last weekend. The models have had a hard time picking it up until yesterday, and now as expected there is a wide range of possibilities.
So I want to wait until the morning package arrives before make my full forecast. However, here is the GFS that came on board two days ago. Here you can see the expected transition of energy to a second Low Pressure that will be the main storm up the coast. This is pretty much a given, but the position of this transition, as well as the timing and push of cold air will all play into what we see here. This classic set up also shows the face of a cold air dam. The is the white arrow I drew to highlight the cold air sliding south from High Pressure in New England. Because of all of the variables, and the first time this season for this type of storm, I really want to hold off for my call until I see more data. the resolution of the models improves dramatically when we get within 60 hours. That would make this morning's computer models that much more important for Sunday night and Monday's possibilities. So check back later for more. Right now, just plan for a mix, and likely heavy rain then ending with some snow

Modifying Thanksgiving and then a December 1st storm?

I lost track of time this weekend, and never got around to posting Sunday. today, I'm back with a look at how this pattern will develop this week. We can't stay cold forever, and while another shot will arrive for a few days, Thanksgiving is looking better for us. The big question may be what will happen next week. More on that later... I'm working on it now....

Before that... what will happen when this front passes tomorrow morning. I see a wide range of solutions, but I have to stick with my gut. Here the NAM for Wednesday morning, shows the stacked upper level and surface Low stuck near Lake Ontario. This will open up the great lakes, and spin some energy our way for the second half of Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper level temps are cold enough, and this unstable pattern will produce afternoon snow showers. Especially Wednesday. This Low is expected to retrograde, or drift back to the west, but at this stage, I don't think anyone has a good handle on it. Either way, plan on rain overnight, but the return to colder temps tomorrow afternoon.
As of 11:30am- I see some support for a wind shift by Wednesday evening. that wind direction is the most important thing for central Maryland. The forecasted 'West' wind is a down slope and shower killer for us. Any indication of more of a north-west component, and the chance of snow showers will go way up. However, the chance if always higher in western Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore Counties. One thing I have noticed lately, is that Harford and Cecil Counties in northeastern MD get ignored. That north west wind flow has a tendency to carry some showers your way, and sometimes bypass Baltimore. So- you will be in my thoughts as well....
So far, depending on how this thing behaves, we have a chance to clear out and warm up with a dry westerly wind for Thanksgiving. If the upper level low hangs closer, then all bets may be off.

Larry Cosgrove already did work in his last newsletter. He sees big potential for a big storm for us.
Rather than go into all of his details... I just wanted to show some support with a few models already:






The Japanese Meteorological Agency shows a coastal storm passing into Long Island, NY on Monday morning. This would linger some wrap around snow showers in Maryland. This is a 192 hour forecast, and the JMA does like to develop these coastal storms way out for us....