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Monday, November 24, 2008

Modifying Thanksgiving and then a December 1st storm?

I lost track of time this weekend, and never got around to posting Sunday. today, I'm back with a look at how this pattern will develop this week. We can't stay cold forever, and while another shot will arrive for a few days, Thanksgiving is looking better for us. The big question may be what will happen next week. More on that later... I'm working on it now....

Before that... what will happen when this front passes tomorrow morning. I see a wide range of solutions, but I have to stick with my gut. Here the NAM for Wednesday morning, shows the stacked upper level and surface Low stuck near Lake Ontario. This will open up the great lakes, and spin some energy our way for the second half of Tuesday and Wednesday. The upper level temps are cold enough, and this unstable pattern will produce afternoon snow showers. Especially Wednesday. This Low is expected to retrograde, or drift back to the west, but at this stage, I don't think anyone has a good handle on it. Either way, plan on rain overnight, but the return to colder temps tomorrow afternoon.
As of 11:30am- I see some support for a wind shift by Wednesday evening. that wind direction is the most important thing for central Maryland. The forecasted 'West' wind is a down slope and shower killer for us. Any indication of more of a north-west component, and the chance of snow showers will go way up. However, the chance if always higher in western Howard, Carroll, and Baltimore Counties. One thing I have noticed lately, is that Harford and Cecil Counties in northeastern MD get ignored. That north west wind flow has a tendency to carry some showers your way, and sometimes bypass Baltimore. So- you will be in my thoughts as well....
So far, depending on how this thing behaves, we have a chance to clear out and warm up with a dry westerly wind for Thanksgiving. If the upper level low hangs closer, then all bets may be off.

Larry Cosgrove already did work in his last newsletter. He sees big potential for a big storm for us.
Rather than go into all of his details... I just wanted to show some support with a few models already:

The Japanese Meteorological Agency shows a coastal storm passing into Long Island, NY on Monday morning. This would linger some wrap around snow showers in Maryland. This is a 192 hour forecast, and the JMA does like to develop these coastal storms way out for us....

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