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Sunday, November 9, 2008

A Storm This Week?

First we start off the week with an upper level trough and core of the cold air left over from last week's blizzard. That is what will hold us in the 50s, but also help to carry a partly to mostly cloudy view our way. Here is the NAM showing the 500mb vorticity. The green and yellow essentially highlight the base of the trough and cold air. That is the instability that allows morning sun to develop clouds by mid day and perhaps overcast into the afternoon. Some down slope comes into play, and will allow more sun around the bay and eastern shore.

So what's up for the rest of the week?

Last week, the idea was to develop the next short wave (surface storm) and bring it in behind this trough on Wednesday. Over the weekend, that fell apart, but Friday was looking more like the wet day for us. So if it happens, now? There is a split in what is expected...just look at the Friday morning maps below.
The Canadian is developing a coastal storm, but pulling it just far enough east that we get clipped or just missed. That looks a lot like what just happened last week. Of course, that also brings up the issue that the models have not had a good run of tracking coastal storms, so this would be up in the air. Especially 5 days out.

he GFS is more along the lines of the jet stream digging deeper into the central plains, but not clearly identifying any surface storm. In fact there is no indication of anything off of the east coast for this same time period. However, the leading end of the trough, shows a strong southerly flow taping into Gulf of Mexico moisture, and unlike the Canadian, is more of a wet scenario for the entire east coast.
The UNISYS analysis of the precipitation shows the moderate rain for Friday morning. This does hint at some circulation near North Carolina, but the timing is way

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