It's Back............

Frigid end to February. Here is the famed 500mb map showing the vorticity or 'spin' in the mid levels of the atmosphere. While no organized system showing up no the maps, this shows us where there is energy to produce flurries or snow showers as the core of the arctic air moves in for a few days.
This is a slow progression, but lined up for all of us. So even if you had some sun this morning, this tells me that clouds will build quickly and all of us- not just the Hereford zone- have a chance at flurries or a snow burst this afternoon. I have been getting calls from weather watchers on the north end all morning. A few reports of a dusting of snow grains on cars and grass. So there is a chance of a light coating with some heavier bursts today. The roads are warm, and the temps will be 'warm enough', so I don't expect a road problem.
Call it a wind machine, as gusts over 30mph will push the cold air in and make it feel like the lower 20s.


Next up, more light snow. This system is for Friday will pass to our north. that is not a good track for us since it will provide a westerly wind that easts up the flakes on this side of the mountains. But there is a chance of snow showers late Friday into Saturday morning. Ironically, it will warm up behind this 'cold front'. This weekend should be a return to the 40s, but not for long.
There is a some buzz about a potential coastal Tuesday or Wednesday. Likely we get rain to move in on Monday- but a second storm may form as we get into the colder air mass, and it could get interesting....

Here is the GFS for March 4th. It shows a development far to the south- but well after a cold front pass with rain. This would depend on upper level support to bring this north- but now it looks like a kick out to sea- with marginal temps. Tomorrow a few more mid range models will pick up on this for their last time frame. If it still looks possible, I will touch on it. I know we are grabbing at straws, but time is beginning to slip away. While I still hold that we will transition to a much colder pattern, I'd hate to wait for late March and April (as in recent years), with snow that does not stick- let alone on Opening Day at Camden Yards. That is looking more possible.

Snow Burst

No Snow=No Shave: Day 12; Still waiting for 2" @ BWI. check out my Snow Page for more.
Once again, here is the 500mb chart for this afternoon showing the vort max which should generate some strong snow showers. I have timed it out between 11am and 3pm. This is the type of set up that will not like too much until it gets close. Some mid day heating should help enhance the action, and I still expect gusty winds and a coating on the ground in spots.
This may act as a little cold front, although all it will do is slightly shift the wind and allow the skies to clear out tonight cooling us down into the lower 20s. It will, however allow a sunny day to bring us back to normal temps Wednesday.


The outlook for Thursday is still on the fence. While it is looking like that polar air and trough will not truly build in and is holding off until after the storm, the arrival might come with a mix as some marginal temps hang on- shown with the bold 540 thickness line on the GFS. The Canadian (white background), shows the Low a little farther east. Yesterday I mentioned the trend- and this trend east on the Canadian is better for us, but the cold air still gets pushed into PA. We can thank the the upper level flow around approaching Arctic air for that. This may act as a wave approaching shore, slightly warmer air gets pulled in before the crash of the cold. So while I disputed it a few days ago, the cold air doesn't really get in here until after this coast passes. In fact another short wave, or clipper will move through Saturday with our best shot of snow showers- leading the arctic charge.
This GFS 850mb plot is for Sunday morning. Here the temperatures at around 5000ft will be down to around -20C. That is -4F, and would translate to a struggle to reach the lower 20s on Sunday. If was have snow on the ground- it would likely keep daytime temps in the teens.

Monday Eve. "Why we will get a snow burst Tuesday"

Sorry I forgot to post again earlier. This is just a quick shout out to why I believe we will get a snowburst tomorrow. I know some of you are disappointed we did not get it this morning. These types of storms (Miller B), are Great Lakes systems that develop a new Low off of the Mid Atlantic Coast. It can also hold some warm air and push the storm too far away for us. I had snow at my place, but it was 36F and did not stick- and does not matter to you.
Here you go for Tuesday:
This 500mb WRF plot for midnight and Tuesday afternoon. It shows the vort max (upper level energy or spin) I marked with an X. It is strong, and will be in a perfect spot for us as it passes at the right time for afternoon convection. I would not be surprised is a coating to an inch lays on the north side, but we should get some wind and a burst between 11am and 3pm. The grass, and maybe some roads get a cover, but I will hold the beard until the end of the week.
Thursday is still looking on the fence, or mostly rain- but some eastward push with the models is what I'm watching. I don't want to play it up like I did over the weekend. It will still bring in the arctic air. More on that Tuesday.