Getting More...Online and Outside.

First, I wanted to ask you to try another web browser if you are using Micr. Int. Explorer. I've posted a link here on the right. I tested my site on Explorer yesterday, and it looks quite different. I was quite disappointed. From the banner, colors, and it was missing some elements. Just give this browser a try. It's free and will work much better overall. You might actually thank me.
As for more snow.. A lot of people have asked if this start indicates a snowy winter. That's like expecting the Orioles to make the playoffs when they do well in April. We might have a better chance though, but no guarantees - yet. Today, I would focus more on light and mix. It has raced in here, and I first began to adjust my forecast on TV at noon yesterday. This morning, my car thermometer (at 3:45am) was down to 13F in Hunt Valley. BWI hit 14F. Then this cloud deck rolled in, and any heat that rose up overnight, was bounced back down to the ground, so BWI was back to 20F at 6am. This system will track just north and west, which isn't a great track for us. So On that fast pace, it now appears that it could arrive earlier, with some snow, but still be light. This is the leading edge of warmer air, which will still bring us rain this weekend as we get back into the 40s.

Mid Day Report Card

A huge response from the viewers, and lots of happy students here at Sparrows Point HS getting out early. I am not surprised, but I need to explain what happened. Overall, I give myself a B. First Dec. 5th proved itself again- see morning blog below. I've said it for about a month now. But this morning was a rough ride. Snow was on schedule, but the early burst west and south near DC melted on near freezing roads, then re-froze quickly. That was the early ice, and 4 hour ride from Harford County to DC I heard about. With air temps steady 24F to 28F, more 'stickage' on roads mid day. The lack of melting, is one reason to up my total range to near 3". Also, so banding set up from Mt. Airy to near PA line in Baltimore County already piled close to 3" or 4" in spots by 1pm. I am still holding for the main roads to get icy after 3pm. If anything, watching the main Clipper Low this evening, may actually produce 5 inch amounts in parts of Carroll County. I may also be reporting 3-4 inch amounts close to the beltway tomorrow morning. Hope you enjoyed the early gift either way. I'd rather start low and up my totals, that have to pull back.

Something Blowing in the Wind

Wind Advisory Today- Gusts to 50mph
My Morning Headlines are now posted at the right. Click on the image for a full view. Also, reminder, my full web site is now ready. Click the link and you can find "My Blog" posted there in addition to much more local weather images.
I had a little ice yesterday morning, but since I live up north - I knew it was isolated. Soon we will all get to share a scene of winter. As the storm winds up in New England, a very potent Polar Air Mass moves in. The transition will result in damaging winds today. But as we jump ahead to Wednesday, the indication now is that we may repeat 4 of the last 5 years. December 5th tends to be our first day with snow in Baltimore - (More on tomorrow). Here is some of the model support:
First: My favorite for winter events is the Canadian. Here you can see the clipper in central Ohio on Wednesday afternoon. I highlighted the potential snow line in yellow, as the precipitation moves in during the afternoon hours. This type of system does not often have a lot of moisture with it, but this quick move and path likely overhead or just to our south, will give us it's full punch. Early bet on 1" accumulating or more. The real indication of the amount begins about 60 hours before the event, which would be this morning's package. If i see anything significant, I'll update it here.
Either way, the support for cold air is seen here on the GFS. A nice trough in the 850mb level showing the cold air aloft to our north continues to flow in. This map shows the important freezing line south of central Maryland. So even though high temperatures will be above freezing at ground level, cloud level support for snow is there with temperatures -4C to -6C.
Behind this, another quick moving system will reach us on Friday with wintry mix. Looks like winter is here, and glad I finished my new web site just in time. Please see the link above and surf around. If there is something more you would like to see- contact me.

I Like What I See

First it was flurries - last night. It's a little early to get excited about snow, even though some ski areas are open. Our below normal temperature pattern is holding, yet this is just a balance of the heat we had in October and early this month. We are now just about normal at BWI as it stands today.
This pattern change however is showing promise. Here is the early week storm as seen by the Canadian model. Here you can see over 1 inch of rain for the south- including Atlanta, GA. Definitely a pattern change for them. This storm is coming from the southern branch of the jet. A sign of a winter pattern, one that will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture. This is a signal for improvement in the dry south US. Nothing surprising here with our La Nina pattern. So what you see next is somewhat expected...


Looking longer range, I have posted the 5 day GFSx. This is the upper level 500mb flow. The spots highlighted are vort maxes, or pieces of energy that are ingredients for building storms.
The closed Low off of the southern California coast will open up and develop the next southern branch Low. While I highlighted a ZONAL flow for the eastern US, the jet itself should be located just south of the Great Lakes. So this time, there will be colder air in place. The pattern for La Nina would have these developing Lows ride west of the Appalachians. That means snow for midwest, and rain for the B'more and the rest of the I-95 cities. But if the cold air holds like we have now, then a slight push east with the next storm could shift snow and ice potential east as well. No Guarantees! But it is something to watch. Note: December 5th has been the 1st major snow event for Baltimore 4 of the last 5 years. It is about that time....

Thanksgiving-Warm Turkey, Wet Dessert

Welcome to the Original Weathertalk Blog readers. Thanks for hoping over. This will be a temporary home of the blog, while I am building the new website. Below you will see a poll asking for what you would like to see. I have some neat things planned, but would like your input as well.

Here is the Thanksgiving map as I see it. The cold front will wait until late, so your company may stay longer. That snow in Michigan may piled up to 6 inches north of Detroit...but no chance of it getting here. As for next week's storm... if we are lucky, it will hold off until Monday. Yet early next week will be wet and chilly again. I was hoping to see a pattern shift with a digging trough and cold air reaching us by Wednesday. However the early week storm may steal the energy.
It's a holiday! So I will post again on Friday with a look at some of the models. Enjoy the bird

Testing the Waters

I am an habitual blogger, but my web site got out of control. Note: I took this image back in May. I should note my desire for weather pics in my bio...This is just a test of another venue, while I figure out the rest. For now I can be found at www.weathertalkradio.com/marylandweather.